Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Trust Plc LSE:JPB London Ordinary Share GB00B602HS43 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.50 -0.79% 62.50 60.00 65.00 63.00 62.50 63.00 9,862 09:00:19
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 0.6 0.1 0.1 480.8 24

Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Share Discussion Threads

Showing 126 to 148 of 425 messages
Chat Pages: 17  16  15  14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6  Older
Brazil stocks, bonds currency surge on ex-president's Lula’s detention and signals Rousseff’s days in office may be numbered. “The likelihood of a sudden change in government, either through judicial or legislative means, has skyrocketed,” Maplecroft, a political risk firm, said in a note to clients. Brazilian markets rallied sharply on the news, apparently sensing a change in regime that could shake up the country’s beleaguered economy. Brazil is in the midst of its deepest recession in 25 years, statistics revealed earlier this week. The long government investigation has focused on the state oil company, Petrobras, and a tangled conspiracy of kickbacks, graft, and money laundering that appear to have enriched much of the country’s elite. Rouseff, who was minister of energy while the alleged corruption was taking place, has denied benefitting, but analysts have said it seems improbable that she did not know anything about the alleged corruption as it was going on.
The news is so bad, it must be a good time to invest....When noone else is... Recovery Eludes Brazil Economy After Biggest Dive in 25 Years: GDP better than forecast in Q4, but analysts aren't cheering. Investment in Brazil drops for seventh consecutive quarter. Latin America’s largest economy shrank the most in a quarter century last year and no recovery is in sight as shriveling demand and political crisis pummel activity. Brazil’s gross domestic product contracted 1.4 percent in the three months ended in December, after a 1.7 percent drop the previous quarter, the national statistics institute said Thursday in Rio de Janeiro. While the figure was better than the 1.6 percent decline estimated by 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, it wasn’t enough to prevent Brazil’s GDP from sinking 3.8 percent in 2015. That was greatest plunge in 25 years, according to data from the government’s economic research institute IPEA. “There’s nothing to celebrate in these GDP figures,” Luciano Rostagno, chief strategist at Banco Mizuho do Brasil, said by phone. “There is no reason to expect the economy will rebound. Investment and industry activity are expected to remain weak, and the outlook for private consumption remains bleak on back of job and credit market conditions.” Investors have been holding back as political uncertainty swirls amid a sweeping corruption investigation and the central bank holds interest rates at their highest since 2006. A weakened currency has helped improve the competitiveness of exporters, which the government has said will help spur Brazil’s recovery. Still, joblessness is on the rise, inflation is in double-digits and both companies and the government are receiving downgrades. Investment Plunge: Fourth-quarter investment plunged 4.9 percent -- its seventh consecutive drop -- as family consumption fell by 1.3 percent. The latter was slightly better than anticipated, according to Jankiel Santos, chief economist at Haitong in Sao Paulo, and Edward Glossop, emerging-market economist at Capital Economics Ltd. “Private consumption did fall at a slower pace, and that could be another reason why the economy performed better than it did in the previous quarter,” Glossop said by phone from London. “But it’s still four consecutive quarters of decline, so nothing to cheer about. ” Net exports also contributed positively to the fourth-quarter result, but mainly because of a 5.9 percent drop in imports, according to Banco Mizuho’s Rostagno. Exports fell 0.4 percent. The Finance Ministry said the economy may stabilize in the third quarter and rebound by the end of the year as the government focus on initiatives to boost investment, expand credit and keep jobs. “The main challenge at the moment is to recover internal demand,” it said in a statement. Elusive Recovery: Consumer and investor confidence levels have rebounded this year from record lows, which would normally suggest that the economy is bottoming. However, private-sector credit problems signal there’s no turnaround in sight just yet, Carlos Kawall, chief economist at Banco Safra, said by phone from Sao Paulo. “This is a big difference compared to prior crises,” Kawall said. “This will prevent the bottom from being as soon as the confidence indicators are suggesting, and poses downside risks.” The prolonged recession has made it tougher for the government to shore up its finances. Fiscal consolidation plans were met with resistance from an opposition emboldened by proceedings to impeach President Dilma Rousseff, as well as from coalition lawmakers incensed by initiatives to cut spending. The nation’s nominal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP reached 10.8 percent in January, its highest on record, as gross debt as a percentage of GDP climbed to 67 percent. Fourth-quarter data will also weigh down near-term performance due to a statistical quirk known as the carry-over effect, by which the previous quarter affects the subsequent period’s result. If 2016 GDP were to remain at the same level as recorded in the fourth quarter, it would decline 2.4 percent, according to Enestor dos Santos, principal economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Madrid, said by phone. Brazil’s economy will contract 3.45 percent this year, according to the median forecast from economists surveyed by the central bank. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts the Brazilian economy to contract 4 percent this year, while the International Monetary Fund sees a 3.5 percent recession. Both forecast stagnation next year, which would mean no growth until 2018 when Brazilians elect a new leader.
Wood - most of my spare cash has been put in to JPB since it went sub 50p. In my good opinion in the long term I am going to do very nicely out of my investment in JPB the rest I´ve been putting in to JP Morgan Russian Securities Trust (JRS) which is yielding a whoping 5.5% which again in my good opinion I´m going to do very nicely out of.
I've been buying heavily this week. With a rising stockmarket and appreciating currency against the GBP£ and a discount of 16% to NAV the highest historical level, i can see good risk reward for further upside. NAV in GBP£ will be increasing as the real appreciates in value the discount will narrow and commodity prices are beginning to turn up so a triple whammy as far as i can see. woody
31st January 2016 - Portfolio analysis by JP Morgan: The JPM Brazil Investment Trust significantly outperformed the Brazilian market. Our structural underweight to commodity names, including Petrobras and Vale, added to returns as commodity prices, including iron ore and oil, continued their precipitous fall. Asset allocation was positive driven by our underweight to commodities (materials and energy) and overweight positions in industrials and healthcare. Our underweight exposure to defensive sectors including consumer staples, utilities and telecoms detracted from relative returns. It is hard to justify a greater weighting to these sectors, as they are expensive. Stock selection was weakest in the industrials sector, where falling domestic demand outweighed the benefit of a weaker currency. Trading activity was minimal and cash positions were elevated given the recent volatility. We have maintained our more defensive and secular exposure.
31st December 2015 - Portfolio analysis by JP Morgan: The trust's net asset value outperformed the benchmark in December, while the share price also underperformed. Asset allocation was positive, driven by our reduced exposure to both energy and materials. Commodity prices including oil and iron ore fell precipitously in 2015, driving down returns in these sectors. Energy and materials represent two of the trust's most significant underweight positions at the sector level. Stock selection was weak and detracted from overall performance during the month, notably in consumer staples and industrials. During the month, we added to our position in Cielo, a leading payment processor in Brazil, following some recent underperformance. The portfolio is tilted towards the export sector and beneficiaries of the weak currency. In the domestic market, we continue to limit our exposure to stocks with secular drivers or business models that have proven relatively recession-proof.
By Sam Antrobus - Brazil's stock market surged and emerging markets outpaced the developed world as the dollar took a dive this week. Brazil has proved to be the toast of emerging markets this week, as a weakening dollar and mining sector turnaround helped bring relief to the beleaguered South American country. The MCSI Brazil index blew global markets out the water with a 9.1% surge. The index is now the best performing major global stock market this year in pound terms, albeit it has still made a 2.1% loss. A further surge in the Brazilian real, which is now the best performing emerging market currency this year, helped. But for a country in which commodities account for around half of all exports, the real joy can be found in the rising price of metals. Stabilising commodity prices lie at the heart of the Brazilian comeback, as gold hit a three-month high and copper climbed. Silver meanwhile led gold, with rises of 3.1% and 1.2% respectively, as our table shows. Although Brent crude suffered a 2.7% loss, the international benchmark was still trading in a range of around $34-$35 today - well up on the 12-year lows experienced last month.
Amongst all the doom & gloom written & spoken about Brazil it appears to have gone unnoticed that Brazil Investment Trust have repurchased 1,007,500 of its own shares since the 23Dec(300,000),31 Dec(60,000),15Jan(487,508),29Jan(160,000). The total cost was £354,381,28 which is a considerable investment given that the market cap is £17m,they may feel that the market is turning otherwise they would either sit on the cash or invest it in the market so they must feel there is more value in its own shares,another point is that if good news does come then due to the illiquidity of the shares it would cause s tight squeeze with anyone short on stock would drive the price high very quickly.
IF THE global economy is being dragged toward a downturn by China and other large developing countries, then Brazil is one of the principal dead-weight anchors. Once celebrated as a rising power alongside South Africa and India, the Latin American giant is mired in its worst recession in decades, compounded by a political crisis that could lead to the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. What’s more, recovery will require Brazil to face deep-seated structural problems in both its economy and its political system — something its current leaders are unlikely to do. One primary cause of the trouble is both easy to detect and common to Latin American and African economies: plunging commodity prices. Brazil depends on exports of iron ore, soybeans and other basic goods for 45 percent of its trade revenue, and prices for these have collectively fallen by more than 40 percent since 2011. Having borrowed heavily to develop deep offshore oil deposits, the state oil company Petrobras is now the most indebted in the world and will struggle to sell oil at $30 a barrel. Yet Brazil’s problems go far deeper than the downcycling of commodity prices. For a decade, the country relied on those growing exports to paper over structural problems. When the global recession hit, it borrowed heavily to sustain growth — public debt, as a percentage of Brazil’s overall wealth, is now nearly twice that of Greece, according to the Economist . Meanwhile, corruption flourished. As much as 40 percent of the current National Congress is under criminal investigation, including dozens of legislators suspected of taking bribes in connection with Petrobras contracts. For her part, Ms. Rousseff is charged with concealing excess government spending ahead of her 2014 reelection; an impeachment vote in Congress could come next month. Getting out of this mess will require more than a purge of legislators and a recovery of China’s appetite for raw materials. Brazil will have to tackle fiscal and political ills that, in many instances, are written into its 1988 constitution. The charter mandates heavy and growing government spending, especially for pensions; workers typically retire in their 50s, and the Brazilian government is obliged to devote almost 12 percent of gross domestic product to them — more than in rich and aging Japan. The congressional election system, meanwhile, makes famously fractious Israel look stolid. Parties can win seats by gaining less than 1 percent of the national vote; as a result, more than two dozen are represented in Brasilia, and vote selling by marginal deputies is a chronic problem. Fixing these and other distortions would require a three-fifths vote in both congressional houses for constitutional amendments. That’s a most unlikely prospect, given that Ms. Rousseff, with a 12 percent approval rating, is fighting for her political life by appealing to a left-wing base that opposes all austerity measures. Brazilian politicians, like the country’s famous soccer stars, are good at improvising, so it’s possible that the country will maneuver through what is likely to be the recession’s second year in 2016 without a debt default. The current betting is that Ms. Rousseff will survive the impeachment process. But the reforms needed for the country to thrive again may be years away, which is more bad news for the global economy.
....and ditto my last post re JRS
More than one-third of respondents said poor governance was the key barrier to Brazil returning to higher growth. Corruption and excessive government debt also contributed to barriers to growth in Brazil.
30th November 2015 - Portfolio analysis by JP Morgan: The trust's share price and net asset value outperformed the benchmark. Stock selection in the materials sector contributed positively to performance. We have a longstanding underweight in the sector as we struggle to find companies that meet our fundamental requirements based on economics, duration and governance. Our lack of exposure to Vale, a Brazilian multinational diversified metals and mining corporation, added to performance. The Brazilian government has filed a lawsuit suing Vale and BHP Billiton for USD 5.2 billion in order to remedy environmental issues caused by a collapsed dam. The stock fell approximately 25% on the back of this negative news. Stock selection was strong in both consumer sectors?discretionary and staples. Stock selection was weak in industrials, as a weak currency continued to weigh on returns, but our overweight in the sector was rewarded. Holdings in information technology were positive, while financials hurt from both a stock and asset allocation perspective.
Analysts expect Brazil's economy to contract by 3.7 percent this year, with inflation hitting 10.7 percent, the Central Bank said Monday. The gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation forecasts come from the Boletin Focus, a weekly Central Bank survey of analysts from about 100 private financial institutions on the state of the national economy. The government started using the survey in preparing its own forecasts this year. Last week, analysts projected that Brazil's economy would contract by 3.62 percent and the inflation rate would come in at 10.61 percent. Analysts now are forecasting that Latin America's largest economy will contract by 2.8 percent in 2016, with the inflation rate falling to 6.87 percent. If the forecasts turn out to be accurate, Brazil will go through two consecutive years of negative GDP growth for the first time since 1948. Brazil, in a technical recession with GDP contracting for three consecutive quarters, has had its sovereign debt lowered to junk status by Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings in recent months. Those downgrades have occurred even though analysts note that Brazil's foreign currency reserves are far in excess of its international liabilities. The South American giant's economic growth has been hampered by spending cuts implemented by President Dilma Rousseff's administration to reduce the budget deficit and control inflation. Joaquim Levy resigned as Brazil's finance minister last Friday amid the struggling economy and a push by some in Congress to impeach Rousseff. His replacement - Nelson Barbosa, who had been heading up the Planning Ministry - was critical of some of the austerity measures put forward by his predecessor.
Fitch cut Brazil's rating to BB+ with a negative outlook, saying impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff heightened political risks amid a deepening recession. Standard & Poor's had stripped the country of its investment grade in September, while Moody's Investor Service said last week it was considering doing the same. "It was a done deal; Fitch won the race. Now Moody's is just embarrassed to be late to the party," said Pedro Tuesta, an economist with 4Cast in Washington D.C. The real hit its lowest in two months after the announcement but recovered partially as many traders were already prepared for a second downgrade to junk. The currency tumbled about 2 percent after the Brazilian government decided to cut a key fiscal goal for next year, despite protests from Finance Minister Joaquim Levy. Levy has spearheaded the government's efforts to rein in spending as it tries to regain investor confidence and fight a deepening economic downturn. Local media reports said he had threatened to leave his post if the target was reduced. Investors worried that the move could usher in a return to the interventionist policies left-leaning Rousseff pursued over her first term.
Brazil's Supreme Court on Wednesday said it had suspended impeachment proceedings against Rousseff until it rules on their validity. Some traders believe an impeachment could help Brazil fight what is likely to be its longest recession since the 1930s by ushering in more market-friendly policies. Others warn that political wrangling could delay efforts to cut spending and raise taxes, possibly triggering a downgrade of the country's sovereign debt. "The current interpretation is that yesterday's events represent a defeat for the government and this is positive for the market," said João Paulo de Gracia Correa, a trader at Correparti brokerage in Curitiba. "But it is still too early and the situation is too premature to have a medium-term assessment," he added.
Impeachment sends Brazil's economy into storm winds by Rosa Sulleiro: Strong winds are forecast for Brazil's already turbulent economy and there's no chance of sunshine before resolution of President Dilma Rousseff's impeachment battle, market observers say. Volatility is the key word as Brazil's Congress embarks on what could be months of intense debates over the fate of the unpopular leftist president, whose second term so far has been plagued by deep recession and a giant corruption scandal at the heart of the political and business establishment. The initial reaction to the launching of the impeachment process last Wednesday was a euphoric jump in the Sao Paulo stock market, up five percent at one point before closing with its best performance of the year up 3.29 percent. Markets are disappointed with Rousseff's managing of the economy. Brazil is in deep crisis now, with inflation more than double the government target of 4.5 percent, a GDP shrinking 4.5 percent year-on-year, and unemployment rising inexorably. Many investors would welcome the impeachment of Rousseff, who leads the Workers' Party, because the constitution requires she be replaced by her centrist vice president, Michel Temer, from the coalition PMDB. Temer is "much more acceptable to the market than the Workers' Party government of Rousseff," said Paulo Gomes, chief economist at Azimut Brasil Wealth Management, citing Temer's expected ability to enact reforms breathing life into the economy. "Investors would very much like to see a more neo-liberal politician, different to the Workers' Party," said economist Felipe Queiroz, predicting "a lot of instability" on the stock market. Although impeachment itself would be traumatic, Brazil would "come out stronger" in the long term, said Andre Leite, economist at TAG Investimentos. - Uncertainty - However, the flash of enthusiasm was quickly tempered by fear of uncertainty as Brazil's slow-moving train wreck accelerates, with no clear idea of which way it will turn. Despite that initial bump, Ibovespa, the main Sao Paulo index, closed the week 2.23 percent lower. The real also failed to maintain its post-impeachment announcement gains. So far this year the currency has lost about a third of its value against the dollar. "Brazil needs economic stability," Gomes said. "Many support impeachment thinking that it will improve the economic situation in the country. But this is not guaranteed and in the short term it will make the situation even harder, because it will cause problems with passing economic reforms." Now the main hope for the presidency appears to be that the impeachment fight ends quickly. A win could mean coming out with a renewed mandate and authority. "The impeachment is going to bring more clarity. Instead of being a threat hanging over us, we will confront it. When we confront things, it's generally better," Finance Minister Joaquim Levy said Friday. Levy said he looked forward to demonstrating "our objectives, our policies. This is what the government wants to do."
Brazil stocks up on impeachment push by Bruno Federowski in Sao Paolo: Brazilian stocks on Thursday posted their biggest gain in a month the day after lawmakers in Latin America's largest economy started impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff. Brazil's stock exchange jumped 3.29 percent after the head of the lower house of Congress accepted a request on Wednesday to start the proceedings against Rousseff. Investors bet that a change in government could help the country overcome what is likely to be its longest recession since the 1930s. Many analysts warned, however, that political wrangling could delay the government's efforts to balance its fiscal accounts, sparking a downgrade of the country's debt into junk status by a second rating agency. "The initial reading is that economic policy would change and that change would be for the best," said Luiz Monteiro, a partner at Queluz Asset Management in Rio de Janeiro. "But we have to assess how this situation will develop. How will rating agencies behave in this environment? Will long-term investors wait to see if the economy gets better?" Analysts at Julius Baer said the equity market gains were temporary and advised staying underweight Brazil. "The impeachment process could drag on for months, wasting valuable time for turning the country around," they said.
loganair - your post above (107), in the second last sentence you say "We think". Who is "we", or have you cut and paste this from an article (and if so where from please)?
There should have been so much foreign money pouring in to Brazil - hosting the Football World Cup and then the Olympics next year should see money coming into the country and economy but it just doesn't seem to (ever?) translate to much of a benefit of the economy. I realise these two events are temporal and effectively drops in the ocean (but quite large ones) but it just seems to be endemically badly managed. hmmm... I am a holder and quite positive about Brazil and South America, but it's always just about to turn the corner.. 'tomorrow'... I am tempted to buy some more though, being a long term holder, but is it just bad money after worse? IMHO
The latest political developments in Brazil rocked asset prices. In short, the police arrested three important figures: the leader of ruling PT in the Senate, Delcidio Amaral; an agribusiness baron, Jose Carlos Bumlai, who is very close to former President Lula; and Andre Esteves, CEO of the investment bank BTG Pactual. There are two possible consequences from this that could concern markets. First, the arrest of such a powerful figure in the PT could create headwinds and reverse the relatively favourable political moment the government is experiencing, curbing its chances to push through fiscal measures. Second, some could grow concerned about systemic risks stemming from the BTG story. We think there are some grounds for concluding the first, but very little to support the second. Either way, it’s too soon to tell.
Brazil's economy shrank by 1.7% in the third quarter of the year compared with the second quarter, deepening the country's worst recession in 25 years. Compared with a year ago, the economy is 4.5% smaller. The country's unpopular President, Dilma Rousseff, has been trying to cut spending and raise taxes and this new fall in economic activity will make the latter harder. Her government is also entangled in a massive corruption scandal. The drop in economic activity was largely due to a drop in investment, which fell by 15% compared with a year ago. That has been falling for nine quarters in a row. Unemployment is at a six-year high and inflation is running at 10%, meaning household spending is being squeezed. The country's credit rating was cut to junk in September because of mounting political turmoil and the difficulties faced by President Rousseff's government in tackling growing debt. The rating means most of the world's major investors cannot lend to the country. Also in September, the Brazilian government announced a $7bn (£4.5bn) package of spending cuts aimed at plugging the huge black hole in the country's 2016 budget. Dilma Rousseff's public approval rating has hit record lows. Brazil's economy has been depressed by the end of the global commodities boom, while a corruption scandal centred on state oil giant Petrobras has damaged investor confidence.
Brazil’s real declined after Latin America’s largest economy contracted more than analysts forecast amid a political crisis and a spreading corruption scandal. Gross domestic product slumped 1.7 percent in the third quarter from the previous three-month period, the national statistics institute said in Rio de Janeiro Tuesday. Economists had expected a 1.2 percent decline and markets the first time the economy has contracted three quarters in a row since the institute’s series began in 1996. The agency also revised the second-quarter slump to 2.1 percent from the previously reported 1.9 percent drop. Finance Minister Joaquim Levy is set to meet Standard & Poor’s sovereign analyst Lisa Schineller on Tuesday, fueling speculation the nation may face another credit-rating downgrade. “The weak growth data today underline the assumption that Brazil’s worst recession since the 1930s is far from over and that economic activity is still in free-fall,” said Bernd Berg, director of emerging-markets strategy at Societe General in London. "The currency will remain under pressure over the coming weeks on weak domestic data, political turmoil and a looming downgrade." The real weakened 0.3 percent to 3.8777 per dollar at 11:42 a.m. One-month implied volatility was at the highest level since October. The nation’s widening corruption investigation which has engulfed several companies, including state-run oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA, has delayed President Dilma Rousseff’s efforts to pass measures to shore up fiscal accounts. The probe is also dimming the outlook for a better business climate and the government’s fiscal accounts. “Brazil is sinking in a political and economic crisis that shows no signs of abating - indeed quite the opposite,” said Nicholas Spiro, managing director at Spiro Sovereign Strategy, in London. Brazil had its sovereign debt rating cut at all three major ratings companies this year. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings reduced the nation to the lowest investment grade, while S&P cut it to junk, citing the deterioration of Brazil’s fiscal position, political challenges to shoring up government finances, and economic weakness. Swap rates on the contract maturing in January 2017, a gauge of expectations for interest-rate moves, fell 0.07 percentage point to 15.73 percent.
The brown stuff is really starting to HTF.
Chat Pages: 17  16  15  14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6  Older
ADVFN Advertorial
Your Recent History
Jpmorgan B..
Register now to watch these stocks streaming on the ADVFN Monitor.

Monitor lets you view up to 110 of your favourite stocks at once and is completely free to use.

By accessing the services available at ADVFN you are agreeing to be bound by ADVFN's Terms & Conditions

P: V: D:20200921 13:13:21