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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Trust Plc LSE:JPB London Ordinary Share GB00B602HS43 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 66.50 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 0.6 0.1 0.1 511.5 25

Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Share Discussion Threads

Showing 101 to 122 of 425 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
05/12/2015
21:38
Impeachment sends Brazil's economy into storm winds by Rosa Sulleiro: Strong winds are forecast for Brazil's already turbulent economy and there's no chance of sunshine before resolution of President Dilma Rousseff's impeachment battle, market observers say. Volatility is the key word as Brazil's Congress embarks on what could be months of intense debates over the fate of the unpopular leftist president, whose second term so far has been plagued by deep recession and a giant corruption scandal at the heart of the political and business establishment. The initial reaction to the launching of the impeachment process last Wednesday was a euphoric jump in the Sao Paulo stock market, up five percent at one point before closing with its best performance of the year up 3.29 percent. Markets are disappointed with Rousseff's managing of the economy. Brazil is in deep crisis now, with inflation more than double the government target of 4.5 percent, a GDP shrinking 4.5 percent year-on-year, and unemployment rising inexorably. Many investors would welcome the impeachment of Rousseff, who leads the Workers' Party, because the constitution requires she be replaced by her centrist vice president, Michel Temer, from the coalition PMDB. Temer is "much more acceptable to the market than the Workers' Party government of Rousseff," said Paulo Gomes, chief economist at Azimut Brasil Wealth Management, citing Temer's expected ability to enact reforms breathing life into the economy. "Investors would very much like to see a more neo-liberal politician, different to the Workers' Party," said economist Felipe Queiroz, predicting "a lot of instability" on the stock market. Although impeachment itself would be traumatic, Brazil would "come out stronger" in the long term, said Andre Leite, economist at TAG Investimentos. - Uncertainty - However, the flash of enthusiasm was quickly tempered by fear of uncertainty as Brazil's slow-moving train wreck accelerates, with no clear idea of which way it will turn. Despite that initial bump, Ibovespa, the main Sao Paulo index, closed the week 2.23 percent lower. The real also failed to maintain its post-impeachment announcement gains. So far this year the currency has lost about a third of its value against the dollar. "Brazil needs economic stability," Gomes said. "Many support impeachment thinking that it will improve the economic situation in the country. But this is not guaranteed and in the short term it will make the situation even harder, because it will cause problems with passing economic reforms." Now the main hope for the presidency appears to be that the impeachment fight ends quickly. A win could mean coming out with a renewed mandate and authority. "The impeachment is going to bring more clarity. Instead of being a threat hanging over us, we will confront it. When we confront things, it's generally better," Finance Minister Joaquim Levy said Friday. Levy said he looked forward to demonstrating "our objectives, our policies. This is what the government wants to do."
loganair
04/12/2015
12:15
Brazil stocks up on impeachment push by Bruno Federowski in Sao Paolo: Brazilian stocks on Thursday posted their biggest gain in a month the day after lawmakers in Latin America's largest economy started impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff. Brazil's stock exchange jumped 3.29 percent after the head of the lower house of Congress accepted a request on Wednesday to start the proceedings against Rousseff. Investors bet that a change in government could help the country overcome what is likely to be its longest recession since the 1930s. Many analysts warned, however, that political wrangling could delay the government's efforts to balance its fiscal accounts, sparking a downgrade of the country's debt into junk status by a second rating agency. "The initial reading is that economic policy would change and that change would be for the best," said Luiz Monteiro, a partner at Queluz Asset Management in Rio de Janeiro. "But we have to assess how this situation will develop. How will rating agencies behave in this environment? Will long-term investors wait to see if the economy gets better?" Analysts at Julius Baer said the equity market gains were temporary and advised staying underweight Brazil. "The impeachment process could drag on for months, wasting valuable time for turning the country around," they said.
loganair
03/12/2015
10:24
loganair - your post above (107), in the second last sentence you say "We think". Who is "we", or have you cut and paste this from an article (and if so where from please)?
gargleblaster
03/12/2015
10:14
There should have been so much foreign money pouring in to Brazil - hosting the Football World Cup and then the Olympics next year should see money coming into the country and economy but it just doesn't seem to (ever?) translate to much of a benefit of the economy. I realise these two events are temporal and effectively drops in the ocean (but quite large ones) but it just seems to be endemically badly managed. hmmm... I am a holder and quite positive about Brazil and South America, but it's always just about to turn the corner.. 'tomorrow'... I am tempted to buy some more though, being a long term holder, but is it just bad money after worse? IMHO
filster
01/12/2015
21:49
The latest political developments in Brazil rocked asset prices. In short, the police arrested three important figures: the leader of ruling PT in the Senate, Delcidio Amaral; an agribusiness baron, Jose Carlos Bumlai, who is very close to former President Lula; and Andre Esteves, CEO of the investment bank BTG Pactual. There are two possible consequences from this that could concern markets. First, the arrest of such a powerful figure in the PT could create headwinds and reverse the relatively favourable political moment the government is experiencing, curbing its chances to push through fiscal measures. Second, some could grow concerned about systemic risks stemming from the BTG story. We think there are some grounds for concluding the first, but very little to support the second. Either way, it’s too soon to tell.
loganair
01/12/2015
15:26
Brazil's economy shrank by 1.7% in the third quarter of the year compared with the second quarter, deepening the country's worst recession in 25 years. Compared with a year ago, the economy is 4.5% smaller. The country's unpopular President, Dilma Rousseff, has been trying to cut spending and raise taxes and this new fall in economic activity will make the latter harder. Her government is also entangled in a massive corruption scandal. The drop in economic activity was largely due to a drop in investment, which fell by 15% compared with a year ago. That has been falling for nine quarters in a row. Unemployment is at a six-year high and inflation is running at 10%, meaning household spending is being squeezed. The country's credit rating was cut to junk in September because of mounting political turmoil and the difficulties faced by President Rousseff's government in tackling growing debt. The rating means most of the world's major investors cannot lend to the country. Also in September, the Brazilian government announced a $7bn (£4.5bn) package of spending cuts aimed at plugging the huge black hole in the country's 2016 budget. Dilma Rousseff's public approval rating has hit record lows. Brazil's economy has been depressed by the end of the global commodities boom, while a corruption scandal centred on state oil giant Petrobras has damaged investor confidence.
loganair
01/12/2015
15:26
Brazil’s real declined after Latin America’s largest economy contracted more than analysts forecast amid a political crisis and a spreading corruption scandal. Gross domestic product slumped 1.7 percent in the third quarter from the previous three-month period, the national statistics institute said in Rio de Janeiro Tuesday. Economists had expected a 1.2 percent decline and markets the first time the economy has contracted three quarters in a row since the institute’s series began in 1996. The agency also revised the second-quarter slump to 2.1 percent from the previously reported 1.9 percent drop. Finance Minister Joaquim Levy is set to meet Standard & Poor’s sovereign analyst Lisa Schineller on Tuesday, fueling speculation the nation may face another credit-rating downgrade. “The weak growth data today underline the assumption that Brazil’s worst recession since the 1930s is far from over and that economic activity is still in free-fall,” said Bernd Berg, director of emerging-markets strategy at Societe General in London. "The currency will remain under pressure over the coming weeks on weak domestic data, political turmoil and a looming downgrade." The real weakened 0.3 percent to 3.8777 per dollar at 11:42 a.m. One-month implied volatility was at the highest level since October. The nation’s widening corruption investigation which has engulfed several companies, including state-run oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA, has delayed President Dilma Rousseff’s efforts to pass measures to shore up fiscal accounts. The probe is also dimming the outlook for a better business climate and the government’s fiscal accounts. “Brazil is sinking in a political and economic crisis that shows no signs of abating - indeed quite the opposite,” said Nicholas Spiro, managing director at Spiro Sovereign Strategy, in London. Brazil had its sovereign debt rating cut at all three major ratings companies this year. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings reduced the nation to the lowest investment grade, while S&P cut it to junk, citing the deterioration of Brazil’s fiscal position, political challenges to shoring up government finances, and economic weakness. Swap rates on the contract maturing in January 2017, a gauge of expectations for interest-rate moves, fell 0.07 percentage point to 15.73 percent.
loganair
25/11/2015
17:41
The brown stuff is really starting to HTF. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-25/ceo-brazils-goldman-sachs-arrested
eeza
24/11/2015
15:04
USD65 for a steak down from 120 bucks!!! Am glad I don't live in Brazil.
votiem
22/11/2015
18:44
Much of Brazils problems and difficulties are have been caused by the hands of the people at the top especially the politian's. The main trouble is that these politian's are more worried about protecting themselves than they are about their own country Brazil and solving Brazils current problems.
loganair
22/11/2015
16:57
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-22/brazils-disastrous-debt-dynamics-could-create-contagion-emerging-markets-barclays-wa
eeza
20/11/2015
22:13
I've been reading reports that say Brazil's current difficulties/problems are 70% Internally driven by mishandling of policies and just 30% Externally driven, by external factors.
loganair
10/11/2015
00:36
loganair - I am getting interested in this investment trust - nothing goes down for ever and great potential in Brazil - developing middle class etc. May have already bottomed.
gargleblaster
09/11/2015
19:56
Brazil could begin to exit its worst recession in three decades by moving forward with its fiscal adjustment, according to a report from the OECD. The report said that Brazil could put its economy back on track by countering fiscal challenges with the necessary adjustments to bolster public finances, restore the market's confidence and prepare for an aging population. "Progress must continue on the fiscal and monetary fronts. Ambitious structural reforms are urgently needed to close the productivity gaps with other leading emerging economies while ensuring all Brazilians can share the fruits of prosperity," OECD secretary general Ángel Gurría was quoted as saying. Among other changes the OECD suggested is a reform to simplify Brazil's tax system. It also projected inflation to reach 9.4% at end-year, but to fall to 4.9% in 2016 if the government succeeds in its effort to have fiscal reform approved. This year could be a turning point, the organization said in its report.
loganair
31/10/2015
20:20
More Pain Ahead For Brazil? By Professor Carlos A. Primo Braga on on the economic, political and psychological drivers of Brazil's currency slide. Real Depreciation in Brazil: What a difference a year makes! For visitors to Brazil, a steak lunch in a top restaurant would have cost USD $120 in October 2014 (not including caipirinhas or wine). Today the same meal costs roughly USD $65. The Brazilian real has experienced one of the most dramatic depreciations among currencies from emerging economies over the last 12 months. The good news is that this adjustment will help the tradable sector of the economy improve its international competitiveness. For an economy which is currently in free-fall (with an expected GDP contraction of roughly 3% in 2015), this is most welcome even though the low exposure of the Brazilian economy to international markets implies that this help will be at best moderate in terms of its macroeconomic impact. The bad news is that this will add to inflationary pressures and it will also impact the financial health of corporations that have borrowed abroad. International Depreciation Trends: Over the last two years, many countries have experienced significant movements in the value of their currencies. As discussed in detail in the latest World Economic Outlook of the IMF (October 2015), these changes have often extrapolated the range of historical adjustments experienced by major currencies. Among industrialized countries the US dollar and the Swiss franc have appreciated more than 10%, while the Japanese yen has depreciated more than 30% in real terms (since mid-2012). Many emerging economies have also experienced significant depreciation of their currencies. The Brazilian real - which was identified by Morgan Stanley in 2013 as one of the so-called fragile five (a group that also included the Turkish lira, the Indian rupee, the South African rand, and the Indonesian rupiah) - has depreciated more than 35% in real terms since 2014 against a basket of relevant currencies of major trading partners. Actually, with the exception of the Indian rupee, the currencies of the other members of the "fragile five-club" have been among the worst performers among emerging economies currencies over the last two years. Currency War Irony: It is ironic that Brazil, which as recently as 2010 had warned about the dangers of a "currency war" - reflecting concerns about interventions by major monetary authorities to limit upward pressures on their currencies in an effort to boost net exports - is now leading the "contest" in terms of global depreciation trends. First, the current political gridlock associated with the tug-of-war between the Executive branch and Congress, amid the reverberations of the Petrobras corruption scandal, does not help. There is not only a crisis of governance, but also a crisis of ethics. The logic of the mob seems to be leading the country to the lowest common denominator for ethical behavior in the absence of credible leadership. Needless to say, this creates a field day for speculation against the real. Second, the international environment does not help. This goes beyond the implications of the Chinese slow-down for Brazil. In reality, the current crisis provides another illustration of the behavior under stress of complex financial networks. The triggering event may be small in macroeconomic terms - e.g., the losses associated with the Petrobras scandal - but resulting collateral damage can be substantial, particularly, when the external environment suggests that in the near term additional headwinds will impact the country (for example, the expected increase of US interest rates). In short, markets tend to overshoot in their expectations about the future of a currency under stress. There is, however, a silver lining. Economics does not stop operating below the Equator. As already mentioned, the depreciation of the real is impacting the tradable sector in a positive manner. Actually, the depreciation, combined with the slow-down of the economy, has translated into a substantial decrease in the Brazilian current account deficit (by roughly 30% compared with last year). Moreover, Brazilian assets are becoming increasingly attractive to foreign investors. In sum, no foreign exchange crisis is expected in the near future. But the economic crisis and the fate of the real will continue to be driven by the political imbroglio. In other words, more pain ahead.
loganair
17/10/2015
18:49
At some point in the next couple of years Brazil will come out of recession and in my good opinion any investing now will make a hansom profit on their investment.
loganair
16/10/2015
16:44
investors junk Brazil as Shanghai soars - Credit rater Fitch prompts investors to ditch Brazil stocks, while China's stock market rebounds. Last week's dramatic reversal of fortunes for emerging markets has proved all too brief for Brazil, after it was dealt a rude awakening by its latest debt downgrade. Rating agency Fitch this week spared Brazil a 'junk' rating, but only just, cutting the country's debt rating to BBB-. That follows Standard & Poor's downgrading of Brazil's debt to 'junk' status in September. Inflation in Latin America's largest economy has rocketed to 9.5%, while economists are forecasting the longest recession since the 1930s. That has added to the pressure on president Dilma Rousseff (pictured), who faces the prospect of impeachment proceedings after a court ruled she broke the law in her management of last year's budget. Brazil's beaten-up real currency took another tumble in the week to yesterday, leaving investors nursing a 5.5% loss in sterling terms. The country's problems buck the broader emerging market recovery, which continued this week, albeit not at the same pace as last week's rally.
loganair
11/10/2015
19:07
Brazil's Rousseff says looking at ways to open economy: Oct 9 Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff said on Friday she believes the country's economy is still too closed to foreign trade and that her government is looking at ways to open it to other countries. In a speech to business leaders in Bogota during an official visit to Colombia, Rousseff said expanding trade with South American nations would be a natural course for Brazil, because countries in the region share characteristics that favour integration.
loganair
11/10/2015
19:05
Possibly the low was the 31p reached a couple of weeks ago!
loganair
10/10/2015
22:42
WHERE is the bottom here?
gavinbell
10/10/2015
19:12
Brazil - Good Buy Or Goodbye? by Colin Lloyd: Summary •The Bovespa is down 35% in US$ terms this year. •Government bond yields are back to levels last seen during the crisis of 2009. •The BRL has declined by 45% against the US$ during 2015. •Bond agency downgrades and government inaction exacerbate the sense of crisis. When I last gave a speech about the Brazilian economy and stock market prospects, back in March 2014, I was optimistic. During the summer of that year, the Bovespa rallied, USDBRL improved, and Brazilian government bond yields declined, but by early September, these nascent trends had lost momentum. It is worth remembering that, despite the importance of commodities - and coffee made fresh lows for the year in September - the largest contributor to Brazilian GDP is services (67%). During the second half of 2014, inflation remained broadly stable at around 6.75%, but, as the BRL weakened, inflation picked up sharply forcing the Bank of Brazil to raise interest rates, meanwhile the government's primary budget surplus evaporated: In May 2015, I wrote about the prospects for Brazil and Russia - once again, I was anticipating the rebound in commodity prices coming to the aid of these commodity exporters - yet again, I was premature. The economic slowdown in China continues, commodity exporting countries remain under pressure and, from a technical perspective, the GSCI appears to be heading back to test the 2009 lows. My conclusions about Brazilian real estate have become slightly more negative since May. The recent increase in domestic inflation, combined with a rise in unemployment, makes rental yields - ranging from 4% to 6% - less attractive. Real yields have grown more negative whilst rental arrears and defaults rise. No way out? In a recent Bloomberg Op-Ed - The Anatomy of Brazil's Financial Meltdown - Mohamed El-Erian proposes official "Circuit-Breakers" to stop the vicious cycle. Peterson Institute - A Non-Circuit Breaker Agenda for Brazil - disagrees: “ What are the options for Brazil? With interest rates at 14.25 percent, there is unfortunately little room for further rate hikes. With short-term domestic rates at these levels and global interest rates at close to zero, one would be hard pressed to argue that remedies used in the 1990s-specifically abrupt interest rate hikes of a high order of magnitude-would make a big impact on reversing capital outflows. If market pressures continue unabated and exchange interventions are ineffective, Brazil might well need to resort to capital controls. A further credit downgrade might follow, and the stage would be set for the type of inevitable crash that many economists imagined they would no longer see. While a crisis cannot be fully avoided-arguably, it is already happening-the government could still take some action to instill confidence. A strong commitment to prudent fiscal management over the medium term might help attenuate market turbulence even if the government's hands are tied in the short run by political dysfunction. Instituting debt limits as discussed above would be a good start; Poland's experience is testament to how fiscal credibility can be enhanced through their adoption. In Brazil's case, debt limits have an additional advantage: They would send the right medium-term signals without being as overtly unpopular as the other measures and reforms the country desperately needs. "Circuit-Breaker" policy proposals and the spectre of capital controls are unlikely to stem capital flight in the near term, but with EM exposures already back to 2009 levels, I believe we're nearer the end than the beginning of the repatriation process. Conclusions and Investment Opportunities: For investment to return to Brazil, repatriation of existing investment needs to run its course, corporate bond defaults need to peak and begin to improve, unemployment needs to rise and then begin to decline and the government needs to prove it has the resolve to adhere to a policy of real austerity. Currency: The BRL is the weakest it has been in more than 20 years, it last approached these levels back in October 2002. Foreign Exchange reserves remain high, I would expect the markets to test the central bank's resolve. Further currency weakness certainly cannot be ruled out. Stocks: According to BlackRock investors, outflows from EM ETFs in September exceeded $3.2bln, albeit, sentiment has improved over the past week. The EM's stock market performance for the year to October 6th; Brazil has suffered more than every country except Greece. For the contrarian investor, this may present an opportunity to buy - personally, I would prefer to see some indication of government resolve to tackle the country's difficult domestic economic issues first. Next year, Brazil will host the Olympic Games - this is an opportunity to push through unpopular policies and showcase all the reasons to invest in Brazil. It is always darkest before the light - I shall be watching closely.
loganair
07/10/2015
17:53
Is the tide beginning to turn for emerging markets? by Daniel Grote. Investors are pulling out of emerging markets in record numbers after a grim two years, but some argue now is the time to buy. If you believe the adage that things need to get worse before they can get better, then emerging markets are certainly fulfilling the first half of that maxim. Emerging markets have been a grim place to be since the tide turned firmly against them in 2013. After a strong rally after the financial crash, they have endured a torrid two years against the backdrop of the US winding down quantitative easing, or dollar printing, and China's economic growth slowing. And there have been few signs of a turnaround on the horizon. The prospect of the US raising interest rates, and the hit emerging markets would take from the hike, has weighed on investors' minds throughout the year. Even the US's failure to raise rates last month, surprising some commentators, did not provide any respite. Investors instead fretted over the reasons for the Federal Reserve's lack of action, fearing prospects for global growth were even worse than had been thought. Again, emerging markets were the big losers. Investors have voted with their feet. Emerging markets are set to suffer a net outflow of capital this year for the first time since the financial crisis, according to the Institute of International Finance. But just as it appeared things could not get any worse for emerging markets, sentiment appears to have turned. They led the running last week, and continued their rebound in the last few days. Contrarian 'buy' Now analysts at investment bank Morgan Stanley, who are not shy of making big market calls, are proclaiming this is the time to buy emerging markets and commodity-related stocks. 'The heavy consensus positioning to favour developed markets over emerging markets is likely to be challenged in the fourth quarter as better China news flow improves sentiment towards emerging markets and commodities,' they said. 'We recommend investors raise their exposure to emerging markets / commodities given the combination of very low sentiment, attractive relative valuations and a likely inflection in macro sentiment.' A crucial flank of their argument is that China, the main driver of emerging market – and wider global market – falls during August's downturn, should provide investors with some good news throughout the rest of the year. 'The real kicker for equity markets is likely to be signs that China's economic activity is not as bad as feared (given this is the epicentre of investor concerns about the global economy),' they said. 'In fact, our economists believe macro momentum in the country could actually start to show some improvement in the coming months in response to a faster pace of new policy initiatives.' Just as importantly, they don't expect investors to be subject to the same level of policy uncertainty from China that proved to be the undoing of markets in August. Investors were thrown in a panic when China devalued its currency, reported weaker growth figures and fought rampant stock market volatility, culminating in the spectacular falls seen on 'Black Monday'. China's policy mess: Stephanie Flanders, former BBC economics editor, who is now chief market strategist at fund group JPMorgan Asset Management, believes it was the 'cack-handed' manner in which the Chinese authorities reacted, rather than the policy moves themselves, that worried investors. 'Did it suggest [the authorites] were not going to be able to handle the challenges China faces? I think that was what panicked people,' she told a conference in London yesterday. Morgan Stanley agreed that this uncertainty over policy 'had at least as big an impact on investor sentiment as the underlying economic data'. 'Going forward, the recent step-up in policy announcements from the government, coupled with less volatility in equity and foreign exchange markets and the forthcoming decision from the International Monetary Fund on the yuan's inclusion in the [special drawing rights basket of currencies] should hopefully allow for policy uncertainty to start to normalise,' they said. And the analysts also see encouraging signs on earnings from emerging markets companies. These have been in decline, but Morgan Stanley has pointed to what it believes is the trough in the emerging markets 'earnings revisions ratio' – the net number of analyst upgrades, expressed as a proportion of the number of forecasts – versus that for developed markets. If Morgan Stanley is right, an upturn in emerging markets could catch a lot of investors unaware. 'Any improvement in sentiment toward emerging markets is likely to have serious ramifications for investors given the extreme level of positioning we see across markets, whereby investors are underweight emerging markets and commodity-exposed areas,' they said. Consensus could be caught out: Professional investors are just as likely to be caught out. The analysts point to the strong performance of UK funds – where 88% have outperformed over the last 12 months – as evidence they have largely shunned the UK market's heavy weighting towards emerging markets-sensitive commodity stocks, which have acted as a drag on the FTSE 100. Emerging markets funds have meanwhile suffered 14 consecutive weeks of outflows, and the analysts argued that 10 weeks of outflows was usually a contrarian 'buy' signal. Emily Whiting, emerging markets portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, argued a reversal of these flows could by itself help to revive the sector. 'Flows can drive emerging markets as much as fundamentals,' she said. 'Investors are underweight emerging markets more than ever since the financial crisis.' She argued that a reversal of outflows was a more likely immediate catalyst for improving returns than improving earnings. 'You're more likely to see that than earnings picking up,' she said. 'It [wouldn't] mean [investors] like emerging markets, they just don't want to be as underweight as they are at the moment.' And she claimed a hike to US interest rates, long feared for the impact it could have on emerging markets, would help to remove uncertainty. 'We just want them to raise – it's the worst kept secret ever,' she said. 'It's worrying investors and causing them to sell out.' 'It is built in [to prices] and understood. We just want them to raise it, everyone will realise the world hasn't ended, and we'll carry on.'
loganair
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