Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Share Chat (JPB)

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Type	Share ISIN	Share Description
Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Trust Plc	LSE:JPB	London	Ordinary Share	GB00B602HS43	ORD 1P

	Price Change	% Change	Share Price	Bid Price	Offer Price	High Price	Low Price	Open Price	Shares Traded	Last Trade
	-0.25	-0.36%	70.00	68.50	71.50	70.25	70.00	70.25	21,852	08:22:16

Industry Sector	Turnover (m)	Profit (m)	EPS - Basic	PE Ratio	Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments	0.9	0.4	1.0	70.7	26

Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Share Discussion Threads

Showing 201 to 224 of 400 messages

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Date	Subject	Author	Discuss
18/1/2017 15:59	QP - I´ve been reading that from the early 1960´s to 1982 that basically we were in a Bare Market and since then, except for a couple of crashes we´ve been in a Bull Market. Late last year as a percentage the world debt to world GDP breach the high of 2007/2008 and that maybe one of the big pension companies goes bust will be the catalyst for the next crash.	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
12/1/2017 17:22	Brazil's central bank cut interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, surprising markets with a more aggressive rate cut. In a unanimous vote, the bank's monetary policy committee, known as Copom, decided to lower its benchmark Selic rate to 13.00 percent - its lowest in nearly two years - after two straight cuts of 25 basis points each. In a strong message to start 2017, the bank said inflation appears to be converging to target and growth remains weaker than expected. The cut was the deepest yet of the current easing cycle, which began in October last year. While inflation has hit its slowest level in over two and a half years, high debt levels and waning confidence among both businesses and consumers still hinder the recovery of an economy mired in deep recession. The central bank said in a statement accompanying the decision that it had established a "new rhythm of easing" given the anchoring of inflation expectations, widespread disinflation and economic activity that remains short of expectations. President Michel Temer expressed his "satisfaction" with the bank’s decision, according to the presidential spokesman, Alexandre Parola. The cut "reinforces the president’s conviction that the elements are in place for a recovery of economic growth and the creation of new jobs in the course of this year," he said. Investors also welcomed the bank’s decision, with the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF rising as much as 2.6 percent after the announcement. Swap rates in contracts maturing in Jan. 2018 fell 37 basis points on Thursday morning as traders began pricing in some three additional Selic cuts of 75 basis points this year. "The bank indicates it should keep this pace of easing for at least the next two meetings," Andre Perfeito, chief economist at Gradual Cctvm, wrote in a research note. "It is reasonable to imagine that we can have a key rate very close to one digit by the end of this year." Consumer prices rose 6.29 percent last year, compared with 10.67 percent in 2015, the national statistics institute said in a separate report earlier on Wednesday. The inflation slowdown has been sharper and more widespread than anticipated. The central bank "made it very clear that it sees a better inflation and exchange rate outlook and worse activity which made them opt for a more aggressive cut," said Luciano Rostagno, chief strategist at Banco Mizuho, in an interview after the decision. "The bank is setting a new rhythm for rate cuts and it will continue unless some unfavorable factor arises," he said, citing as an example a possible depreciation in the value of the real after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office.	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
11/1/2017 18:17	Fully concur. On the one hand, Western countries need inflation to reduce their enormous debt piles but inflation is also very politically unpopular. The recent Fed tightening has caused no hiatus and the likely further small incremental increases in rates look priced in. My perception is that major banks (excluding Greece and Italy) are well capitalised and that the EEC still fudges bank recapitalisations in the Euro-Zone. My own view of the "elephant in the room" is the potential disintegration of the EEC with France, Greece, Italy, Netherlands following Farage's lead. That would cause a major global shock and this is why Merkel et al are keen perhaps to make an example of the UK in how hard and detrimental it is to quit the EEC. I rate the falling-apart of the EEC as a 50/50 chance over the next decade. That would cause a bit market rumpus. Otherwise, my personal view is that Trump (the most pro-business President surely ever to be elected) will cause a massive economic boom State-side and rebuild the USA infrastructure which is now very tired and dated and thereby stimulate global growth enormously. Trumponomics have already started to cause commodity prices to rise and the warmth of relationship with Russia seems to stimulate that economy. OPEC countries will soon start reaping the financial benefits of higher oil and look also to invest. Personally, I am pretty upbeat since Trump won and at this point in time cannot see any massive bubble on the horizon which may implode. Who knows? Seems to me that money is going back into financial assets and markets are generally all rallying. Great to exchange views with you. Cheers. QP	quepassa	Read Full Thread Reply
11/1/2017 17:57	When it comes to defaulting due to interest rates, Russia´s has always been much higher than in the West and therefore in my opinion I do not even look at that as a possible problem as they are on their way down. When it comes to interest payments, due to them currently being so low a small rise is a large rise in percentage terms. The Global Risks Report 2017 says the greatest threats to the global economy are posed by unemployment or underemployment, fiscal crises and asset bubbles in the main economies. Failure of the major financial institutions, unmanageable inflation, and the shortfall in critical infrastructure are among the most significant concerns, according to the WEF.	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
11/1/2017 17:50	I do agree that rising interest rates can hurt but from my personal experience, rising interest rates tend to dampen economic activity, reduce high street sales and turn economies sluggish rather than cause crashes. Unless there is a major default caused by unsustainable interest rates such as Russia at the time of the LTCM blow-up which spooked/disrupted the markets leading to LTCM's failure rather than causing an outright crash. With interest rates at microscopic levels, those friends must have enormous multiples on their LTV's! But generally mortgage lending since the 07/08 crash has been against tightened lending criteria. In terms of the high FTSE100 PE ratios, you are right but this is mainly perhaps considered an aberration caused by the recent very weak earnings from certain major commodities companies which comprise a large part of the index. The Industrials are generally in rude health and set to boom on the back of growing exports due to sterling weakness. Who knows? As always, fascinating to have an intellectual exchange and I really appreciate your views. QP	quepassa	Read Full Thread Reply
11/1/2017 17:32	QP - Crash this time maybe caused by the massive debt many people and governments are in. Many of my friends who have mortgages can barely afford the interest payments and are terrified about how they will pay when interest rates start to rise. I´ve been reading that currently the FTSE 100 is trading on a PE of 34.7 which is twice the historic average.	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
11/1/2017 15:51	2017 World Bank GDP Forecasts For Select Emerging Markets: Brazil: 0.5% Russia: 1.5% India: 7.6% China: 6.5%	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
09/1/2017 07:57	loganair. re 214. history shows that markets rise and crash. so at some point a crash will likely come but whether that's in 2, 5, 7 years, who can say? but recent crashes like the dot.com bubble and the collateralised mortgage madness and subsequent Lehmans collapse were things which clearly precipitated a crash. what specific drivers/markers do you perceive please at this point in time as leading to your eventual crash scenario? QP	quepassa	Read Full Thread Reply
05/1/2017 16:35	Great day for JPB at +4%. QP	quepassa	Read Full Thread Reply
21/12/2016 16:06	QP - I ask myself what annunition do the Central Banks have left, interest rates are already very low, we´ve seen QE and bond buying and we are in a low growth environment, governments are up to their eye balls in debt. When interest rates start to rise, even modestly people hold so much debt how are they going to pay the interest. I remember many years ago when I first took out a mortgage the bank would only lend if I was able to pay 12% interest rate as at the time the mortgage rate was 8.5% and rising very fast. I also hear that some mortgage lenders are again offering 100% mortgages, when I took out my first mortgage the maximum a lender would lend is 75%. I agree about commodities, however China takes 70% of the Iron Ore mined, I´ve also been reading that in the next few years we´ll reach peak oil demand, especially when more electric cars come on line is why I think the Saudi´s have started to sell Saudi Armaco knowing that we´re near the top of the market and therefore will command the highest price. I hope you agree at some point in the future there will be a market crash as we can´t be in a Bull market for ever and can easily see a very top of the market to the bottom of 50%.	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
21/12/2016 06:22	loganair, prefer not to answer personal questions please. but what would precipitate your 50% crash scenario? Western banks are generally well capitalised. are there any extreme financial bubbles which are forming? some markets are high but certainly not stratospheric. many markets are low. commodities are low. we have a pro-business USA government.interest rates are microscopic. growing oil receipts with WTI at $54 will start helping many economies like Russia and Brazil. USA is going to rebuild infra-structure which will stimulate global trade. - And governments just keep on printing more money. I see no LTCM, mortgage-backed madness, over-leveraged banks, sky-high interest rates, bubble sectors. -The FTSE Index is still roughly the same level as 17 years ago in 2000. - Room to grow perhaps. So where are those particular warning signs please for any 50% crash? A geo-political or fat-finger or bot-driven short-term, short-lived flash-crash is one thing. But what in your opinion please are the current specific warning signals for a longer-term, more pervasive general market crash by 50% which you mention? ALL IMO. DYOR. QP	quepassa	Read Full Thread Reply
20/12/2016 19:44	The people on the sha thread are very bullish though. http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/dow-50000/	hazl	Read Full Thread Reply
20/12/2016 16:33	hazl - The ultra rich know, see it coming as it seems to me they are the ones who cause the bear markets in the first place, often selling out a few months before the market turns and saying what good investors they are. All I will say is in my opinion when it comes I am expecting a collapse of at least 50% or more from what ever the high is as the Central Banks have very little ammunition to fight it with this time round.	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
20/12/2016 16:14	I think the next bear market could start as early as March 2017. But who knows?	hazl	Read Full Thread Reply
20/12/2016 16:09	Brazil’s Finance Minister, Henrique Meirelles, said on Monday that the government expects Brazil will register some growth already in the first quarter of next year. “Our expectation is that Brazil is already working with growth in the first quarter of 2017,” said Minister Meirelles during a conference in Rio de Janeiro. According to Meirelles the government is forecasting a two percent GDP growth in the comparison of the last quarter of 2017 with the last quarter of 2016. Financial institutions surveyed by Brazil’s Central Bank, however, are not that optimistic. The entities forecast of the GDP for 2017 of 0.58 percent. The finance minister noted, however, that GDP forecasts are an average of 2017 compared to an average of 2016 and since in 2016 the GDP fell a lot, the 2017 ‘growth trend’ will start from a very low base. Personally I think that Brazil is around 9 months behind Russia in coming out of its recession and therefore, at this current time it seems to me Brazil (JPB) maybe a better investment than Russia (JRS). Saying this however, I will not be selling down any of my investment in JRS as I think that Russia still has a long way to go as a commodity play as well as an easing of sanctions and the continuing reform of the Russian economy.	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
19/12/2016 17:06	Brazil’s farm economy will rebound in 2017 with a record harvest pushing up grain exports and expanding the country’s livestock industry, according to analysts’ forecasts. An estimated record grain harvest of 213.1 MMT would be 14% larger than last year, when crops were devastated by drought, according to Brazil government estimates. The harvest will start in January. According to another Brazilian marketing firm, SAFRAS & Mercado, Brazilian soybean production in 2016/17 could increase by 9.2% to 106.085 million tons, according to news reports. That would be roughly 4 MMT higher than USDA’s estimates. While poultry production is expected to rise by 5%. “Agribusiness points to a positive performance in 2017 because of the improved agriculture revenue. We have relatively stable prices ahead … and we have increased grain production," the managing partner of MacroSector, Rabo Silveira. “Agribusiness has a very good scenario for a year in which the economy of the country will go sideways. It is not that agribusiness will be immune, but it has some rules of its own,” Silveira says.	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
19/12/2016 17:03	Economists on Monday maintained their outlook for Brazil's economic performance in 2016. Brazil's gross domestic product is expected to shrink 3.48% this year, according to a weekly central bank survey of 100 economists. But in 2017, economists see the country's economy growing 0.58%, according to the survey. The survey also found that the economists cut their inflation estimate for 2016 to 6.49%. According to the central bank survey, economists maintained their outlook for the year-end Selic rate for 2017 in 10.50%. They also kept the forecast from the previous week that Brazil will post a $47 billion trade surplus this year.	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
19/12/2016 16:45	QP - I hope it´s OK if I ask you a personal question, your monika of Que Passa any Spanish connection? I feel it is always good to read both Positive and Negative reports about any situation. As I mention on my JRS thread "This thread is to engender dialogue, discussion and involvement of other posters, posting information and points of view of both sides in an objective, informative and hopefully sometimes interesting manner so others can carefully explore, examine and interpret the value of the information while not necessarily intended to change other posters attitude towards investing in Russia or JRS." Just for information I was posting the lastest reports I had read on what is happening in Macau and maybe I am behind the curve when it comes to knowing Macau personally as I was regularly there during 2007/2008 when sadly the authorities were taking down all the signs in Portugese and replacing with English. We are now in the second longest running Bull market in history and by early 2018 will be the longest Bull market in history any thoughts about when the next Bear collapse will be?	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
16/12/2016 18:57	Maybe we shouldn't talk about Macau because that's something I know quite a lot about. You say casino shares are hit hard. This I would debate with you. For example, if so how do you explain that Sands HK has risen near 100% in a year from HK$20 in Dec 2015 to $35 now and equally Wynn Macau has risen from HK$6 to HK$12 over the same time frame? Also, visitor numbers have now stabilised and are on the uptick. The casino resorts are refocusing on family entertainment rather than a few high rollers. The new mega-resorts are pulling in the punters fast. The completion of the road-bridge is destined to change Macau beyond recognition as until now it could only be reached by ferry. I am sorry but although I really do respect your views on Russia and Brazil, you are behind the curve on Macau. Yes, on Cuba, no real way to invest direct there at the moment in securities or quoted instruments other than through some international hotel chains but Melia is very international with a diversified chain of hotels. Best regards and have a nice week-end. QP	quepassa	Read Full Thread Reply
16/12/2016 18:44	Yes logonair I have noticed before your excellent research and summation of what is happening in your areas of interest, leading to a successful backdrop for your choice of investments. From the political point of view I maintain that the neo-liberal capitalism sweeping the globe is the cause of many of the problems internationally. The deregulation particularly of the banks and the deliberate reduction of social programmes ,that are touched on in the article above, are the work of those who surely wish to demean and control ordinary citizens who are just trying to work hard and make ends meet in most cases. 'I don’t see how to get out of this, because I think both projects are failing. Of course, this project of trying to implement a pure neoliberal political economy is just for the benefit of the very rich so it saves, at least, the banks. That’s its main proposition, save the banks.' from Kimberley Brave above. It has clearly been happening here,too and I have written quite a bit on the 'sha' thread recently about the same. Implemented as long ago as Thatcher's era and continued by Blair, I think many people lump the perceived problems here into an EU/ANTI EU rhetoric but I think it is more to do with this neo-liberal capitalism which rewards big companies,doesn't restrain monopolies and actively withdraws social care. Your article above helps confirm for me how widespread this has become. I think it's interesting they state that the democratic system wasn't working either beforehand but was it at all brought about by the debt being passed around like 'pass the parcel' perhaps? With currency wars and so on that each country participates in now,with of course the Western counties so far having the upper hand? I found this article very interesting last weekend if anybody is interested. http://www.globalmediajournal.com/open-access/financial-speak-a-method-to-unmask-neoliberal-capitalism-and-the-ideology-of-perpetual-growth.pdf IMO	hazl	Read Full Thread Reply
16/12/2016 18:10	Mitchell Harris Long/short equity, momentum, deep value, special situations about Cuba: The 54-year embargo between Cuba and the United States is hopefully coming to an end. This is a no-brainer and will open the door to a massive inflow of investment, tourism, property expansion, and natural resource development. All good things for a country only 90 miles from the tip of Florida, such easy access for American travelers looking for new places to vacation. Yes, there will be a healthy amount of criticism while we sit and wait for Congress to approve the "lift," but there is a place to invest your money now that could pay off handsomely once all the chips fall into place. This is not a quick hit or a three to six month trade; I recommend dollar cost averaging into these positions over a period of one year to maximize a conservative strategy. As I do some more research, other ideas may come across my desk, but let us stick to this one for now - Melia Hotels Intl SA, it currently operates roughly 25% of the hotels in Cuba. The Cuban lodging market currently is dominated by small local operators and some European and Canadian chains, many of which often offer all-inclusive packages. Spain's Melia Hotels International SA and Canada's Sunwing Vacations are among the active players there. Some other chains have expressed interest in hotel development in Havana. I just feel as relationships grow between the U.S. and Cuba, the aggressive business minds will create a stir and try to develop this country as fast as possible. As we all know, nothing is easy, and it will take time to hurdle the political, monetary, labor, infrastructure issues. There are other industries that will benefit while Cuba is being rebuilt. A tremendous amount if investment is needed. Let's not forget the trillions of dollars U.S. companies currently have in offshore banks. How great would it be to invest some monies into Cuba at this early stage once an agreement can be reached. Over time, I think it is inevitable that Cuba will become an island oasis to be enjoyed by millions of people in the coming years.	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
16/12/2016 17:41	Well, a couple of things to note about Macau. Two mega resorts ( Sands and Wynn) have opened just this year in Cotai. And a road bridge between HK and Macau is due for completion in 2017. - Both are game-changers. How would on invest in Cuba please? QP	quepassa	Read Full Thread Reply
16/12/2016 16:17	QP - Yes I would invest in Cuba, especially now as it beginning to open up and after going to Macau many times, no I wouldn´t invest in Macau. Macau is very small and now completely built on and has little space for new development, unlike Singapore which has reclaimed about a square mile from the sea, Macau is in less of a position to do so.	loganair	Read Full Thread Reply
15/12/2016 19:04	Very interesting posts , loganair. Thank you. I think our timing on Brazil and Russia was similar and for similar reasons. Fully concur with your sentiments and views. Cuba - a fascinating idea - but how would you invest ? Thank you for your response. Another esoteric/specialist investment which I wanted was Macau where the economy was smashed after China clamped down on conspicuous spending a few years ago and visitors/gamblers to Macau plummeted. Macao is now picking up after several years in recession . I invest in Macau through Macau Property Opportunities Fund (MPO) which has performed well and which still looks very promising. Not a frontier country but another Trust I recently encountered with a massive Discount to Nav of 30% is Canadian General Investment Trust (TSX: CGI and LSE: CGI ). I have mentioned them recently on the bulletin board for Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust LSE SMT. Thank you for sharing your ideas and thoughts. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP	quepassa	Read Full Thread Reply

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