Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 27/11/2017 19:33

Morgan Stanley has reduced the size of its overweight rating on India for 2018 to accommodate Brazil's upgrade to the overweight category where they expect a significant economic growth. China is its biggest overweight in the global context.

"We reduce our overweight on India from +250 basis points (bps) to +150 bps previously. Key bull points for India in terms of the country model are increasing dividend yield trend relative to its country peers, combined with constructive views from our economist and country strategist. Weaker scores for India are its weak return on equity (ROE) and net margin trend," a Morgan Stanley report co-authored by Jonathan Garner, their chief Asia & emerging markets equity strategist says.

However, they believe India is likely to remain in the midst of a domestic liquidity super cycle. Over the next 10 years, it expects $420 billion - $525 billion in domestic equity inflows that could have the power to keep India's relative multiples higher for longer. That said, the two key risks for India, according to the research house, are the rising oil prices and the fact that 2018 will see a number of state / assembly elections, which can keep the markets volatile.

Going ahead, Morgan Stanley expects 2018 to be a tough year for the markets even though there are catalysts supportive of a continued rally. Central bank tightening globally and balance-sheet reduction in the US, slowdown in growth in China, busy election calendar in the Asia pacific region (ex-Japan) and a rise in oil prices are some of the key things that the markets will have to grapple with.

In the Indian context, the research house expects the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to accelerate to 7.5% in FY19 and to 7.7% in FY20, from 6.7% in FY2018, as the economy has already worked off the headwinds posed by demonetisation and the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) bill. A pick-up in growth and consumption, in turn, will help boost private capex.

In terms of sectors, they still continue to prefer banks; remain overweight on capital goods, food & beverage and tobacco sectors. Pharmaceuticals, household and personal products (FMCG) remain their key underweights in the Indian context.

"For India Household & Personal Products, stocks look rich and margins are likely to decline due to higher material costs and competition, and are therefore a headwind to the earnings outlook. We also remain underweight on the largest pharma name - Sun Pharma - where we believe earnings should compress in the near term in view of lower US business - lack of new approvals, delay in Halol resolution, pricing risk at Taro portfolio - and higher opex (specialty front-end/R&D)," the report says.

[yf23_1] 26/10/2017 16:08

About 12% discount to NAV at present.

[loganair] 26/10/2017 10:03

Brazil lowered borrowing costs by 75 basis points, and signaled it will slow the pace of monetary easing further as inflation bottoms out and the economy gains steam.

The bank’s board, led by President Ilan Goldfajn, cut the benchmark Selic rate to 7.5 percent Wednesday following four straight full-percentage point reductions as expected by all 33 analysts surveyed. Policy makers have lowered borrowing costs by 675 basis points in the past year.

The bank repeated language from its previous meeting recommending a moderate reduction in the pace of easing going forward, leading analysts to predict a 50-point cut in December. That would take the Selic rate to a record low of 7.0 percent.

“The doors appear open for an additional cut by the following meeting, in February,” JPMorgan economists wrote in a report forecasting the Selic rate would fall to 6.5 percent in early 2018. Others, such as UBS economist Fabio Ramos, said the statement backs up the view that the December cut will be the last in the current cycle.

The Selic rate has fallen from 14.25 percent just a year ago. Since then, Brazil’s economy has resumed growth after two years of deep recession in 2015 and 2016 that shed nearly 3 million jobs and left huge idle industrial capacity.

Inflation has plunged from double-digits to less than 3 percent, far below the official target of 4.5 percent, and is forecast by the central bank to stay around the goal through the end of 2019.

“Whether the bank cuts the Selic below 7 percent will depend on the short-term outlook, which seems relatively benign from our standpoint,” said Luciano Sobral, an economist with Santander Brasil.

[quepassa] 14/10/2017 13:23

Yes indeed. Appreciated. A lot.

Here and on other bb's.

Thanks

[yf23_1] 14/10/2017 12:33

loganair
Thanx for the posts, appreciated by the silent majority.

[loganair] 13/10/2017 14:30

By Lisa Smith:

Now could be the ideal time for investors to go nuts over the fast-improving Brazilian economy, according to experts.

The country has made some great progress since collapsing into crisis just two years ago.

Inflation has fallen from more than 10% to less than 4% and more interest rate cuts are expected.

Although the other emerging markets of India and China are still surging ahead, Brazil is different because of the recent political and financial crisis that plunged the economy off the rails, says Sheridan Admans, of investment broker The Share Centre.

Admans manages the broker’s multi-manager funds and tips Brazil as his favourite emerging market.

Confidence from reforms package:

“The country has made tangible economic progress over the past 18 months, implementing sound macroeconomic policies resulting in manageable inflation and stronger financial systems,” he said.

“Indeed, inflation has fallen from double digits in 2016 to below 4%, which has had the added benefit of narrowing the central banks inflation band. Interest rates are now around 10% and the data is therefore suggesting the economy is making progress since its economic crisis in 2015. Investors should appreciate that the expectation of further interest rate cuts should be supportive of growth ahead.

“Despite President Temer’s recent corruption implication, the administration has been preparing to implement measures that should stabilise the country’s fiscal position and boost business confidence further. Parliament and consensus seem keen to push ahead with the reforms package too, which should provide any onlookers with some confidence.”

…But elections sows doubt:

Admans also sees opportunity in Brazil and Mexico as upcoming 2018 presidential elections stir uncertainty that may push share prices down.

“Indeed, the political situation in Brazil has certainly not been a simple one. As an example, in July this year, a federal judge found Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva guilty of corruption, dealing a serious setback to the former president’s aspirations at another run as president. With Lula widely considered being among the less-business friendly candidates, markets rallied,” said Admans.

“The economic downturn in Brazil and corruption at the highest levels of politics and commerce has now left equities on attractive valuations – trading at about 14 times earnings and at a discount to the wider emerging markets and below the long-run average, despite the rally over the past year. We believe now could be a better time than any for investors to consider joining the carnival in Brazil.”

[loganair] 22/9/2017 20:44

In the inflation report, the Brazilian central bank has increased its 2017 GDP growth forecast to 0.7% from 0.5%. For 2018 it expects an expansion of 2.2%.

[loganair] 10/9/2017 07:45

Brazil's stocks and currency continue to rally as the central bank cut interest rate to a four-year low after the market closed, seeking to spur an incipient economic recovery.

The central bank slashed its benchmark Selic rate by 100 basis points to 8.25 percent, but signaled the pace of monetary easing would probably slow next month.

Earlier, the market rallied as Brazil's Congress cleared two key fiscal bills, adding to investor optimism over President Michel Temer's ability to pass market-friendly reforms.

Late on Tuesday, Brazilian lawmakers approved softened budget targets for 2017 and 2018, as well as a bill setting a market-based benchmark rate for state development bank BNDES that will reduce subsidies in years to come.

The measures are central to Temer's efforts to limit growth of public debt without implementing further tax hikes. Investors hope that will boost long-term growth in Brazil as the economy emerges from the deepest recession in a century.

Hopes of increased lawmaker support for his platform grew this week after the country's top prosecutor threatened to partially revoke a plea deal that had supported corruption charges against the center-right president.

The Brazilian real strengthened 0.55 percent on Wednesday as the cost of insuring against a Brazilian sovereign default hit a new two-year low. The country's
benchmark stock index neared a record high.

Supporting demand for Brazilian shares was news the Finance Ministry was analyzing the implications of relinquishing veto rights on certain strategic decisions in a few companies, which could pare back the state's role in the economy.

Shares of state-controlled power utility Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras SA, which the government plans to privatize, rose 2.3 percent. Planemaker Embraer SA, which could be targeted by the measure, rose 3.2 percent, also lifted by a $1.1 billion firm order from SkyWest.

[loganair] 09/9/2017 16:13

Brazil's central bank on Wednesday cut its benchmark lending rate by a full percentage point as prices increased at the slowest pace in almost 20 years, and signaled a smaller rate cut at its next monetary policy meeting.

The bank cut its key Selic rate from 9.25% to 8.25%, the lowest level since July 2013 and just 1 percentage point above its 2013 all-time low.

The bank also suggested that an end to the current round of rate-cuts is in sight.

The monetary policy committee sees "a moderate reduction of the pace of easing as appropriate," given the outlook for the economy, the bank said in the statement announcing the rate cut. "In addition, under those same circumstances, the (committee) foresees a gradual ending to the cycle."

The statement is a clear message to markets it will start to fade out rate cuts and may even go back to a small rise by late 2018, according to Roberto Padovani, economist at brokerage Votorantim.

"The strategy is to end the cycle with smaller cuts until the Selic reaches probably 7%, with the possibility of ending next year a little higher than that" he said.

The idea, he said, would be to use low rates now to rekindle economic growth before tightening again to avoid inflation.

"It is a reasonable strategy," Mr. Padovani said.

Brazil suffered through its worst recession on record during 2015 and 2016, just as a giant corruption scandal and fierce political infighting made it almost impossible for the government to take effective measures to heal an economy wrecked by the end of a commodities boom.

Embattled President Michel Temer recently showed he has the support of enough lawmakers to get at least some of his market-friendly agenda of economic reforms approved. Last month Congress voted to shelve corruption charges that could have toppled Mr. Temer, an outcome that could have resulted in Brazil having as many as five presidents in less than three years.

Mr. Temer "is getting stronger, and so is his reform agenda," said Ignácio Crespo from Guide Investimentos, a brokerage firm. "It's possible the reforms will speed up now that the accusations seem to have been weakened," he said.

The reforms include, among other things, a simplification of Brazil's byzantine tax code, an greater creditor protection in bankruptcy-recovery procedures and, most important, an overhaul of Brazil's generous but insolvent retirement system. Earlier this week Congress approved one of the president's cost-cutting proposals -- the reduction of subsidies for certain loans to businesses.

The central bank has repeatedly said the advance of such reforms is key to ensuring low interest rates in the long haul.

"Approving and implementing reforms [is] fundamental to achieving sustainable low inflation and for monetary policy to work well," the bank's economic policy director, Carlos Viana, said in a speech last month.

The streak of good news continued on Wednesday, when Brazil's statistics agency IBGE said consumer prices rose at a 2.46% annual rate in August, the slowest pace since 1999. Last week the agency said gross domestic product grew 0.3% in the second quarter of 2017 from a year earlier.

[loganair] 02/9/2017 19:09

Emerging markets will start to dominate rankings of the world's top economies by 2030, according to a report published earlier this year.

The report, published by PricewaterhouseCoopers, finds that emerging markets such as India and Brazil will increasingly challenge the economic dominance of the USA and China, while others slip behind.



The UK will fall to 10th place while Brazil will be at 8th, Russia 6th, Germany 5th, Japan 4th, India 3rd, USA 2nd and China 1st.

[loganair] 30/8/2017 10:39

Brazil's Finance Minister, Henrique Meirelles, said on Monday (the 28th) that he expects the economy to grow "at around 3%" in 2018.

His statement was made a few minutes after a ministerial meeting at the Planalto Palace, at a time when the government is preparing itself to confront a new charge against President Michel Temer.

"Our expectation is that the next year will give us a rate of growth above 2.5%, possibly at around 3%," Meirelles said.

[quepassa] 27/8/2017 14:03

Very happy with my investments here at the depths of the Dilma Roussef scandals last year.

And thanks again to logan for his extremely useful and informative posts.

QP

[loganair] 27/8/2017 13:39

Brazilian stocks rose on Thursday after a government council announced a massive sale of state assets, fueling bets that the government will manage to rein in the growth of public debt and cut a widening budget gap.

Brazil intends to sell stakes in some of the country's busiest airports as well as oil exploration, highway and power dam licensing rights as President Michel Temer seeks to reduce state involvement in the economy.

The announcement followed a surprise move on Tuesday to privatize state-controlled power utility Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras SA, which triggered a market-wide rally.

Brazil's benchmark Bovespa stock index rose about 1 percent to a new six-year high, with shares of Eletrobras , as the power utility is known, among the biggest
gainers.

Also helping fuel optimism was a decision by the lower house of Congress to approve the main text of a bill creating a new market-based lending benchmark for state development bank BNDES that would greatly reduce discretionary subsidies.

"Coupled with well-behaved inflation, this sets the stage for the central bank to cut interest rates even more," analysts at the Magliano brokerage wrote in a client note.

[loganair] 27/8/2017 13:16

Brazil Inflation Hits 18-Year Low - Consumer prices in Brazil increased 2.68% in the year to mid-August 2017. On a monthly basis it increased 0.35% compared with economists' expectations of a 0.4% increase.

The Brazilian economy has been going through a rout of political uncertainty as well. The country's lower house of congress rejected corruption charges against its president Michel Temer, which could have led to his ouster.

Michel Temer needed at least 172 votes to escape a Supreme Court trial. Finally, he secured the support of 263 lawmakers, while 227 voted against him, and 23 were in abstention.

[loganair] 31/7/2017 20:42

There are ten macro reasons to buy Brazil shares by Matein Khalid:

"Brazil is a country of tomorrow and always will be" General Charles de Gaulle dissed Latin America's largest economy with Gallic disdain. Quelle horreur! Yet I have been fascinated by the magical land of samba, carnival, Pele, Gisele, Roberto Carlos and the Bovespa since my first visit in 1992 - blame it on Rio! The last two years were a political and economic nightmare for Brazil. President Dilma Rousseff was impeached and ousted after the Lavo Jato scandal implicated the entire political and business elite. Brazil endured its worst economic recession since the Great Depression. Standard & Poor's slashed Brazil's sovereign debt rating to BB, de facto junk bond levels. Even President Michel Temer, Dilma's reformist successor, was implicated in a scandal and accused of offering hush money to a witness in a corruption probe. Latin America's economic colossus seems yet another sad Third World banana republic, with its kleptocratic Senators, its bribery prone billionaires, its disgraced financiers, a country of tomorrow that will never come.

However, as an emerging market's investor, I live life in the world of the second derivative, the deltas that define my calculus of risk and return. So I do not shun Brazil's financial woes, I embrace them by buying the iShares Brazil Capped ETF, the world's largest Brazil country index fund, listed in the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol EWZ. Why?

One, "the big money is made when things go from Godawful to just plain awful" applies to Brazil in the summer of 2017. When the Temer scandal broke, the Brazil exchange traded fund sank 17 per cent in a single session. I could smell blood in my Bloomberg screen. Mathematicians calculated this was a six sigma, one in a billion year event. I thought no way. Temer refused to resign since he retained the support of a critical mass in Congress, the Sao Paulo business elite and the military. It was time to buy Brazil.

Two, Brazil's rock star former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who symbolised Latin America's socialist tilt in 2002, was just convicted of corruption and money laundering and sentenced to 10 years in jail. This makes it impossible for Lula to challenge Temer's pro-market reforms or lead the Workers Party to win the 2018 general election. The political risk premium in Brazilian assets just shrank big time.

Three, Brazil has the world's highest inflation adjusted interest rates at least 5 per ent. So it does not surprise me that a fall in inflation has enabled the central bank in Brasilia to slash the Selic benchmark policy interest rate from 13.75 per cent to 10.25 per cent as I write. In fact, the Brazil Central Bank (BCB) has anchored inflation expectations by actually lowering its inflation targets. This is a Hellelujah moment for monetary policy in Brasilia and the Selic could well fall to 8 per cent by year end 2017.

Four, Brazil's Senate just approved a new labour bill that will help address the chronic budget deficit and reduce the risk of another sovereign debt downgrade.

Five, Temer has rightly staked his regime's legitimacy on pension fund reform, which will both reduce country risk as well as increase the domestic fund allocation shift to corporate debt and equities, classic risk assets.

Six, Brazil is the emerging markets Cinderella and has lagged the 25 per cent surge in the Morgan Stanley emerging market index in 2017. Valuations on the Bovespa are modest at 13 times forward earnings at a time when EPS growth can well rise by 20 per cent next year.

Seven, Brazil boasts one of the largest mutual funds industries I have ever seen in the emerging markets, with $1.2 trillion in assets under management invested largely in Federal and bank debt. Yet pension fund reform will ignite a secular bull run in corporate debt and equities, the reason I love Banco Bradesco shares.

Eight, Brazil's GDP could well rise from 0.3 per cent in 2017 to 2 per cent in 2018. The merest hint of green shoots could mean Bovespa 80,000 if the macro stars, dear Brutus, are aligned. Brazil's judicial system has also launched a crackdown on political corruption.

Nine, Trump's political woes in Washington has led to a softer US dollar and lower US Treasury bond yields, nirvana for Brazil's external debt and the Brazilian Real.

Ten, the rise in iron ore (Vale is up 30 per cent), sugar, crude oil (Petrobras, Energia de Brasil) and even coffee is hugely Brazil bullish, as is no China hard landing. Obrigado, Comrade Xi.

[loganair] 26/7/2017 13:34

Brazil Is Settling In to a Period of Steady Economic Growth, and Many Industries Are Ripe for Private Equity Investments. Investors Need to Understand the Market and Apply the Right Strategies.

As Brazil's economy takes important steps toward stabilization after a major boom and a two-year correction, it is becoming attractive to investors that want to diversify into emerging markets. The continuing recovery, probusiness reforms, and growth in key industries are combining to create a clear opportunity for investors. These key findings are presented by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in its report Private Equity Strategies for Brazil's New Economic Reality, which is being released today.

Brazil's economy is more mature than those of other emerging markets. About one-third of Latin America's population lives in Brazil, yet the country attracted nearly half of all PE investments in the region from 2008 through 2015. Compared with developed markets such as the US, there is still significant room for growth. "That combination of factors puts Brazil in the sweet spot for companies willing to invest in emerging economies," says Heitor Carrera, a BCG partner and coauthor of the report. "Over the next decade, the country will offer a rare opportunity to both global firms that want to add emerging markets to their portfolios and local firms in Brazil that want to step up their investments there."

Steady Growth and an Increasingly Friendly Business Climate:

Most economists predict that, despite some volatility in the first half of 2017, Brazil's GDP will settle into a period of slower but steadier growth--about 1.8% a year through 2021, which is faster than that of the G7 countries. In addition, Brazil's government has introduced a series of economic reforms--such as reducing the paperwork required to file some taxes or start a new company--aimed at promoting a more business-friendly environment.

Although the recent economic correction hit some industrial sectors hard, many others--particularly in consumer segments such as food and health--continued to expand at double-digit rates, and that growth will likely continue. These industries are now prime candidates for the kind of value creation strategies that investors can apply.

"Brazil has given investors a wild ride over the past decade," says Carrera, "but as it now enters a period of slower growth, it presents investors with both challenges and strong opportunities. Investors that understand the local market, and adopt a long-term view will set themselves up to take advantage."

[loganair] 24/7/2017 16:02

Cheap trusts to back Brazil out of political crisis By Gavin Lumsden:

‘Never let a good crisis go to waste,’ was supposedly Sir Winston Churchill’s pithy response to the post-war conditions that led to the creation of the United Nations. For investors today, it can also apply to Brazil where political turmoil has created an opportunity in investment trusts exposed to Latin America’s largest economy.

Until May it looked like Brazil was pulling out of a deep two-year recession, with the country stabilising under President Michel Temer who took power last year after his predecessor Dilma Rousseff was ousted and impeached for breaking budgetary laws. However, its financial markets plunged when Temer was accused of agreeing to hush money payments to a witness in the country’s vast ‘Car Wash’ corruption probe.

Since then the Bovespa stock index, Brazilian bonds and the country’s currency, the real, have all recovered as President Temer, who denies the allegations, has resisted calls to resign. Although unpopular, his position is strengthened by the lack of any credible successor.

The long-term investment case for Brazil is that it is a resource-rich nation with a rapidly growing and increasingly educated population. Investors were initially worried that Temer would be unable to push through the pension and labour reforms he promised to cut the country’s big budget deficit. However, most now believe that while the pace of change will slow, the reforms will be made.

Investor optimism was buoyed this month by another astonishing twist as former left-wing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva – once described as ‘the most popular politician on earth’ by US leader Barack Obama – was sentenced to nearly 10 years in jail on corruption and money-laundering charges. Lula, 71, remains free pending an appeal but is unlikely to make a comeback in next year’s election to challenge the reform programme.

Brazil has been a tough place for UK investors in the past 10 years but the rebound in the real since January 2016 has improved matters. Investment trusts offer routes in, starting with JPMorgan Brazil (JPB), the only trust dedicated to the country. Its shares trade at a discount of 18% below asset value, potentially attractive to bargain hunters but reflecting the fact that performance has lagged Brazil’s stock market for several years with a 3.7% gain over one year and an 18% decline over five years.

For a regional approach, Aberdeen Latin American Income (ALAI), with 46% invested in Brazil, and BlackRock Latin American (BRLA), with 62%, also look cheap on discounts of around 14%. Both captured the one-year rally with respective gains of 22% and 19%, although their more modest five-year returns of 6.5% and 6.9% show how tough emerging markets have been. BlackRock, managed by William Landers, is bigger and less expensive with 1.2% ongoing charges versus Aberdeen’s 2% similar to that of JP Morgan's Brazilwhich is a little under 2%.

For a broader tack, Austin Forey’s JPMorgan Emerging Markets (JMG) invests 12% in Brazil, nearly half its weighting to Latin America. Its shares have returned 64% over five years and trade at a 13% discount. Rival Templeton Emerging Markets (TEM) has 10% in Brazil: its five-year return of 42% is less impressive but new manager Carlos Hardenberg has revived performance with a one-year gain of 33%. Its shares stand on a 14% discount, which also looks good value.

Utilico Emerging Markets (UEM) offers a different approach, specialising in infrastructure and utilities to tap into the urbanisation of the developing world. It has 20% invested in Brazil, over 4% of which is a stake in Ocean Wilsons Holdings (OECWL), owner of one of Brazil’s largest port and marine services operators. Manager Charles Jillings has run Utilico since its 2005 launch and is unfazed by developments. ‘We think there’s enough momentum to continue the changes. It’s hard to see how much more bogged down it could be,’ he said.

Utilico has produced a 61% five-year total return and its shares offer a 3% dividend yield on a 9% discount. A fly in the ointment though is a performance fee which lifted investors’ ongoing charges to a high 2.8% last year.

My favourite for an out-of-the-way bet on Brazil is Hansa Trust (HANA), an eclectic £310 million global fund that combines a diversified portfolio of specialist funds and shares with a 30% position in Ocean Wilson, the company that owns Brazilian port operator Wilson Sons, and in which Utilico co-invests. Hansa trades on a whopping 32% discount, a dismally low rating that partly reflects the weight of its big Brazil exposure. Moreover, the Salomon banking dynasty controls all the voting shares, which means non-voting ‘A’ shareholders have no power to effect change.

As a result long-term performance looks awful with shareholders making just 5% over ten years. However, a 24% leap in the past year indicates a dramatic turnaround could be possible if Brazil makes a sustained recovery and if changes to the funds portfolio by chief investment officer Alec Letchfield, who joined three years ago, bear fruit. If you’ve money and the patience to spare, this could be a long-term winner as wide discounts like this rarely last forever.

[loganair] 18/7/2017 20:21

A report released on Monday (July 17th) by the World Trade Organization (WTO) says that the Brazilian economy will have a gradual recovery in 2017, but growth will be weak for an extended period of time. The international trade entity is currently reviewing Brazil’s trade policies and practices.

Brazil, Brazil news,The World Trade Organization is reviewing Brazil's trade practices and forecasting the country's economic future this week,
The World Trade Organization is reviewing Brazil’s trade practices and forecasting the country’s economic future this week, photo by Jay Louvion/WTO.

“Despite Brazil’s mainly solid economic fundamentals, downside risks to the economic outlook remain,” says the report issued by the WTO adding, “The economy remains vulnerable to a re-intensification of political uncertainty, as well as to delays in addressing fiscal imbalances.”

According to the international entity ‘future prosperity and sustainable growth depend on the implementation of productivity-enhancing structural reforms in several areas’ “These reforms would increase the resilience of the Brazilian economy, thus enabling it to continue to meet its broad-based economic and welfare objectives, including inclusive growth and a narrower wealth divide,” concludes the report.

The WTO assessment says that Brazil entered a severe recession in 2015 and 2016, triggered by deteriorating trade relations and increased by political uncertainty. The decline in the country’s GDP was accompanied by rising inflation and unemployment.

The WTO report comes days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF), released a document that reiterates the overall international feeling that Brazil’s economic woes may be coming to an end, despite the political turbulence.

“Recent indicators suggest Brazil’s economy is close to a turning point,” says the IMF report released last week. The international organization, however, warns that ‘while the end of the recession appears to be in sight, a recent rise in political uncertainty has cast a shadow over the outlook’.

The report goes on to say that the government’s ability to deliver on social security reform has become more uncertain, and with general elections scheduled for 2018, the opportunity for legislative action is ‘closing’;.

[loganair] 13/7/2017 19:23

Brazilian equities spiked higher on Wednesday after a court convicted former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of corruption.

The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped exchange-traded fund (EWZ) closed 2.98 percent higher after Lula's conviction. The Bovespa index, Brazil's benchmark stock index, also jumped, trading 1.6 percent higher.

Lula, who was elected as Brazil 's president twice, was sentenced to nine and a half years in jail, making him the highest-profile casualty of "Operação Lava Jato" (Operation Car Wash), a sweeping corruption investigation that has rattled Brazil.

Since its start in 2014, Operation Car Wash has led to hundreds of arrests. It also led to Dilma Rousseff's ousting as Brazil's president last year. Rousseff succeeded Lula in 2011.

The operation has also implicated Brazil's current president, Michel Temer. On May 17, Brazilian newspaper O Globo reported that Temer gave his blessing to an attempt to pay a potential witness to remain silent in the country's biggest-ever graft probe.

O Globo's report led to the Brazilian stock market plunging, with the EWZ shedding 16.3 percent. The report also led to Temer being formally charged with corruption on June 26.

Larry McDonald, head of the U.S. macro strategies at ACG Analytics, said in an email investors should be cautious Brazilian equities short term, but noted they are a long-term buy. "They're still very cheap," he said.

Lula was one of the most popular Brazilian politicians in recent memory. Former U.S. President Barack Obama once labeled him the most popular politician on earth. When he left office, Lula had an 83 percent approval rating.

The former union leader won global admiration for transformative social policies that helped reduce stinging inequality in Latin America's biggest country.

[quepassa] 11/7/2017 19:22

Thanks for the updates, Logan.

Still reading them and appreciative of your ongoing posts and all your efforts.

Thanks.

QP

[loganair] 11/7/2017 19:01

Brazilian stocks edged up on Tuesday as traders bet lawmakers would approve President Michel Temer's plans to revamp labor regulations despite an ongoing political crisis.

The planned labor reform, which investors see as critical to boost long-term economic growth, is expected to clear a final Senate vote later in the day.

Traders said the vote will serve as a gauge of lawmaker's support for Temer's reform platform, which came under pressure in recent months after he was caught on tape allegedly condoning bribes to silence a key witness in Brazil's largest-ever
corruption scandal.

[loganair] 14/6/2017 09:46

Brazil's stocks and currency slipped on Monday as traders feared lengthy legal proceedings against President Michel Temer could further delay the implementation of his reform agenda.

The top electoral court on Friday dismissed a case that threatened to unseat Temer, giving him some breathing room but potentially lengthening a political crisis. Temer is being investigated separately by federal prosecutors for corruption,
obstruction of justice and racketeering.

Brazilian markets have sold off since the scandal broke last month as questions grew over the future of Temer's planned reforms of the country's pension system and labor regulations.

The Brazilian real slipped 0.6 percent on Monday after weakening nearly 5 percent since May 18, when reports emerged that Temer was caught on tape allegedly condoning bribes to silence a key witness in a corruption case.

Also fueling caution was the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week, when the U.S. central bank is expected to hike rates a notch.