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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Trust Plc LSE:JPB London Ordinary Share GB00B602HS43 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 66.50 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 0.6 0.1 0.1 511.5 25

Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Share Discussion Threads

Showing 251 to 273 of 425 messages
Chat Pages: 17  16  15  14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
07/6/2017
09:37
The World Bank reduced its forecast for Brazil’s economic growth this year to 0.3 percent in its latest World Economic Outlook report, released on yesterday (Monday, June 5th). The entity’s growth forecast is lower than the 0.5 percent growth forecast estimated by the market in Brazil’s Central Bank Focus Report. Brazil's Central Bank, Brazil's Central Bank Focus report shows financial market forecasts 0.5 percent growth for 2017, Brazil’s Central Bank Focus report shows financial market forecasts 0.5 percent growth for 2017, photo internet recreation. “Activity indicators have improved, including resumption of industrial output growth and export expansion, as well as confidence gains,” says the World Bank report. The report, however, stresses that Brazil should ‘slowly’ from the recession this year. “The country continues to struggle against the growth of unemployment and the considerable needs for fiscal adjustment,” concludes the report. The latest estimate by the World Bank is 0.2-percentage point lower than that reported in January 2017. In 2018, the international entity continues to forecast Brazil’s growth at 1.8 percent, the same forecast released in its January report. The financial market is more optimistic, forecasting economic growth at 0.5 percent this year, following the announcement last Friday that the country’s GDP increased by one percent in the first three months of the year. The estimate for inflation, according to the inflation index (IPCA), went from 3.95 percent to 3.90 percent. For 2018, the inflation forecast remained at 4.40 percent. For financial institutions, the Selic rate will close 2017 and 2018 at 8.5 percent per year. Currently, it is at 10.25 percent per year. The Selic is one of the instruments used to influence economic activity and, consequently, inflation.
loganair
02/6/2017
08:25
Brazil's central bank cut interest rates to a more than three-year low on Wednesday despite a political crisis threatening government efforts to plug a widening fiscal gap that has plunged the country into recession. The bank's nine-member monetary policy committee, known as Copom, cut its benchmark Selic rate by 100 basis points for the second straight time to 10.25 percent. It was the lowest the Selic has been in more than three years.
loganair
02/6/2017
08:12
As always, challenges remain: While the long-term growth prospects for emerging markets are attractive, the nature of the asset class means that investors always need to be wary of downside risks. Corporate governance and political reform have been a bright spot in emerging markets of late, but one area with less positive newsflow in recent days has been Brazil. Thomas Smith, manager of the Neptune Latin America Fund, acknowledges that a potential lawsuit against President Michel Temer is a setback, but says it is too early to tell what impact it will have beyond the immediate short term, and remains open to potential buying opportunities. “The move in the market after the news broke suggests investors are pricing in zero chance of further reforms. While these allegations are likely to delay the reform agenda, it remains a key priority for Temer, and we believe this will be the case for the new government should Temer leave,” said Thomas. “Political reform is widespread across Brazil and Argentina and both are better placed to withstand short term political turmoil than they have been in recent years – the fundamentals in Brazil are considerably stronger than during the 2015/16 sell-off. Inflation has been falling fast and consistently, external accounts are in great shape (12-month rolling trade surplus is the largest on record), the global scenario is more supportive, companies are less leveraged, the banking system is solid, and economic activity is no longer in free fall.” “Finally, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are led by very capable, seasoned technocrats that have a strong sense of public responsibility and are not likely to immediately leave the government if Temer falls. The growth prospects for Latin America are very encouraging, but as with any emerging economy you have to be cognisant of the potential for short-term blips, that is why we focus on downside protection by maintaining a diversified portfolio.”
loganair
31/5/2017
10:03
Thank you. Will take a look. QP
quepassa
31/5/2017
09:27
QP - I am also looking at JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust (JEMI)
loganair
31/5/2017
09:12
Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles on Monday told reporters the economy likely grew by around 0.7 percent in the first quarter versus the previous one, with the incipient recovery evident in several sectors of the economy.
loganair
29/5/2017
17:04
Yes, I also see the Temer mkt sell-off as a good Buying opportunity. Thank you for your opinion. QP
quepassa
29/5/2017
09:28
At the moment I would recommend - Buy upto 70p then hold until at least over 100p.
loganair
29/5/2017
09:20
Question for you please loganair. Buy, Sell or Hold at this interesting point in time? Sorry for such directness and I fully understand if you should not wish/chose to respond. Regards, QP
quepassa
29/5/2017
08:52
Brazil's currency and stocks rose on Friday as traders hoped for progress on an ambitious reform agenda despite a growing political crisis ensnaring President Michel Temer. Efforts by Temer's administration to foster trust in plans to streamline Brazil's pension system and reform labor laws seem to have to borne fruit among investors. House Speaker Rodrigo Maia has said he expects the lower house to vote on pension reform by mid-June, clearing the way for a final Senate vote. That cautious optimism has rekindled bets that the central bank would cut interest rates by a brisk 100 basis points next week despite market volatility drive by political turmoil, driving yields on rate futures lower.
loganair
27/5/2017
09:15
Peter Donisanu, investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo: "We believe that the sharp sell-off and continued weakness in Brazilian assets is reflective of the fragile underpinnings that had supported the recent stock, bond and currency rallies. We expect Brazilian equities, bonds and the real to face continued headwinds, given the reemergence of political uncertainties. ... We would expect uncertainty related to the political environment to act as a headwind to business and consumer sentiment, likely weighing on economic growth and challenging investor theses of improving growth and reforms. As a result, we maintain our unfavorable equity rating on the Latin American region (of which Brazil is the largest member). Instead, our emerging-market equity guidance favors exposure to Asia—where improvements in trade and growth remain positive contributors to equity-market performance there. For Brazilian local-currency bonds, we expect yields to face to upward pressure stemming from political developments and potentially weaker-than-expected economic data releases ... we expect the U.S. dollar to appreciate this year, putting downward pressure on the Brazilian real and likely leading the currency to 3.40 from 3.30 reais to the dollar ..." Ned Davis explains the conundrum for Brazil's economy: good demographics, bad pension obligations and now "slim chances" that pension reform will happen under President Temer. Ned Davis Economist Alejandra Grindal and Analyst Patrick Ayers write that Brazil's demographics are quite attractive. But they note Brazil has an Illinois problem: benefits to the elderly are high, in line with the developed world, because pension payouts are structured to rise with cost-of-living adjustments: "Despite the high levels of corruption, Brazil has a lot of things going for it. It remains the biggest economy in Latin America, with a large land and resource base. The workforce is becoming more educated, with almost half of its population ages 25-64 attaining at least an upper secondary education, much higher than China and Mexico, which are at 25% and 35% respectively. Adding to that, Brazil has an impressive demographic outlook. Thanks to a decline in its fertility rate over the past several decades, its dependency ratio has dropped dramatically ... Furthermore, Brazil's share of working-age population is projected to rise for at least another decade. This is a luxury that most of the developed world can't afford ... Temer knew the public pension program was unsustainable and was looking to make some major reforms, including requiring individuals to work longer and reducing payouts ..."
loganair
26/5/2017
07:49
Thanks Logan. QP
quepassa
26/5/2017
07:29
Brazil highlights the risks and rewards of emerging markets by GRAHAM SMITH: Ever since the lights dimmed on the Rio Olympics last summer, Brazil’s stock market has blossomed1. However, while the Games helped to shine a light on the impressive attributes of a country steeped in potential, with its young and vibrant population and deep cultural assets, shorter term economic and political considerations have been behind the market’s recent renaissance. The recoveries of oil and commodity prices last year have been key. The export of raw materials accounts for around 42% of Brazil’s annually traded goods2. When the world economy is doing well, so should Brazil. Another factor has been the tenor of the government, wedded to reforms and tough cuts in public spending at the tail end of a long recession. Michel Temer, who took over as president last August, promised to turn the economy round and restore the public finances. As a turnaround situation, Brazil seemed to be without peers among the world’s large developing nations. That position received a sudden and substantial jolt last week though, as the president found himself on the receiving end of corruption allegations, which he has denied. With memories of the demise of the previous government still fresh – Dilma Rousseff was impeached amid a hail of criticism about her management of the economy – Brazil’s stock market immediately relinquished a large part of its year-to-date gains3. There are other underlying problems too. Not unlike many Middle Eastern countries, Brazil remains highly dependent upon the demands of other nations as opposed to the requirements of its own industrial heartlands. That’s left the economy substantially tied to excess demand from China, which has been lacking over recent years. Growth has evaporated and the unemployment rate is now at 12.6% compared with 6.2% at the end of 2013. There are some bright spots. Commodities have stayed firm so far this year, partly down to pledges by OPEC to limit oil production and by Donald Trump to cut taxes and embark on a vast programme of infrastructure renewal. The central bank’s key economic indicator rose in February and March. Meanwhile, Brazil’s ports appear to be gearing up for real-world surges in demand. Works for a fourfold raising of the capacity of a large terminal in the north of the country are expected to be completed next month and follow bumper harvests of soy and corn. Then there’s Brazil’s technology sector and creative industries which are starting to take on more important roles in the economic landscape. Backed by government initiatives, entrepreneurship is in the ascendency promising substantial improvements in future wealth and productivity. Government moves to privatise parts of the state-controlled electricity company Electrobras and sell operating licences for some airports are also seen as positive steps in the right direction7. The programme promises to usher in more private investment and its associated expertise. Against that, other economic indicators have been mixed, highlighting a challenging road ahead. For instance, retail sales in São Paulo fell last month suggesting the country’s improved export prospects are at odds with consumer confidence. As of today, Michel Temer is stoutly defending his position, denying any wrongdoing. From a market perspective, that may be a good thing, since much needed reforms in Brazil – the eventual determinant of a sustainable economic recovery – currently lie in his hands9. However, the political tide against him could end up being too strong to resist. The latest episode in Brazil illustrates two things. First, that emerging markets can produce impressive returns but rarely without a hiccup along the way. Unforeseen shocks tend to deliver the sharpest downward market spikes. Second, that diversification is probably a growth investor’s best weapon against market fluctuations, even though that will not do away with the ups and downs completely. For longer term investors particularly, maintaining an exposure to countries with the potential to grow faster than the world economy as a whole is an attractive proposition. However, that potential usually comes with greater risks and from countries with less well established institutions or lax laws. The counterbalance is that emerging markets tend to benefit from growing populations – at variance with many developed countries in the west – and have large untapped natural resources and attractive business opportunities.
loganair
11/5/2017
09:11
Brazil's economy is starting to "breathe" again and show signs of growth after two years of recession, while slowing inflation will allow interest rates to come down further, President Michel Temer said on Wednesday. Speaking after enacting new rules aimed at attracting more than 20 billion reais ($6.3 billion) in private investments to modernize Brazil's ports, Temer said Brazilians are showing more optimism about the future of Latin America's largest economy. "The economy is starting to show signs of growth, in the retail sector and in agribusiness," Temer said, adding that polls show Brazilians are more optimistic today about the future of Latin America's largest economy. Temer signed a decree that will lengthen contracts for operating public ports to 35 years from 25, and allow them to be repeatedly extended for up to 70 years. The decree allows investment outside contracted port areas and ends a limit on the expansion of private terminals, he said. Brazil's annual inflation rate fell in April to its lowest level in nearly 10 years, bolstering the view of a steep interest rate cut by the central bank at the end of this month. Consumer prices rose 4.08 percent in the 12 months through April, slightly below market forecasts for a 4.10 percent increase and compared with an increase of 4.57 percent in the year to March, the national statistics bureau IBGE said on Wednesday. It marked the lowest annual inflation rate in Brazil since July 2007. It was also below the government target of 4.5 percent. "With headline inflation now below target, COPOM's main focus will be the on the progress of fiscal reforms through Congress," wrote Edward Glossop, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. A major investor focus is the prospect of congressional approval of a pension reform bill, the cornerstone of a government plan to curtail a gaping budget deficit.
loganair
08/5/2017
08:52
The Brazilian government is considering the possibility of auctioning off distributors' energy surpluses, enabling the government to achieve its fiscal target by turning a profit of up to R$ 27 billion (US$ 8.5 billion). Today, distributors can only sell in a regulated market, with pre-determined prices. The sector is currently putting up with a lack of demand ever since the recession led to an oversupply. The Government is considering the possibility of freeing up the market, setting aside the use of pre-determined prices and enabling sellers to conduct business with big industries. The funds would help the government build up revenues in order to tackle a R$ 129 billion (US$ 40 billion) deficit and achieve its 2017 fiscal target.
loganair
26/4/2017
08:05
Latin America’s largest economy is estimated to have grown 0.5 percent to 0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months ending in March, Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles said. He expects the economy to expand 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. He also said that the government had not much room for further concessions on its key pension reform bill currently being discussed in Congress. "We’re at the limit or very close to the limit," he said, adding that the government wants to ensure the pension overhaul results in savings of at least 600 billion reais ($190 billion). If the bill passes as it currently stands the government estimates savings of 630 billion reais. Meirelles ruled out any tax increases, saying that revenue was more likely to surprise on the upside. He said the extraordinary income will include fees from oil and gas tenders. President Michel Temer’s administration is in an uphill battle to convince investors it can dig the economy out of recession while bolstering public finances through austerity. That task has proven far from easy as policy makers slash growth estimates and confront stiff resistance to their flagship pension overhaul. Companies that were deleveraging last year exacerbated the country’s slump, he said, but were now bouncing back. Economists surveyed by the central bank forecast gross domestic product to expand 0.4 percent this year.
loganair
26/4/2017
07:59
I think many of the banks in Brazil are going to report an increase in profits as they are poised to benefit from a new lending cycle, lower funding costs and a fall in provisions/cost of risk. When the macro-cycles for emerging markets banks turns, this sector is a license to print money.
loganair
26/4/2017
07:11
Astonishing profits announced today from Banco Santander's operations in Brazil. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
quepassa
10/4/2017
08:54
Klaus Schwab, the founder and executive president of the World Economic Forum, was optimistic when it came to Brazil, and believes that the country is demonstrating promising signs of economic recovery. However, it is important that the "country doesn't discard everything it has obtained over these past 18 months". "The country must implement the necessary reforms and make sure that the corruption scandals that emerged become a thing of the past", he said. "There are signs that Brazil's economy is starting to improve, given the increases in the stock market and the regaining of investors' trust. These are promising indicators, however, there's still a lot of work that needs to be done". "The main challenge is to overcome political fragmentation in the country. The recent corruption scandals have tarnished Brazil's reputation, yet there are still important efforts being made to try and resolve these issues, and these efforts will be of great help. I'm an optimist when it comes to Brazil's future". "The country mustn't discard everything it has obtained over these past 18 months. But, of course, the country must make sure that the corruption scandals that have come to light don't repeat themselves in the future. Witnessing Brazil's independent judiciary has been quite impressive. We are going to see a country that is less corrupt"
loganair
31/3/2017
08:09
Markets expect a 100 basis-point reduction in the Selic overnight lending rate at next months central bank's April 11-12 meeting. Brazil's annual inflation eased to the lowest rate since 2010 and came close to the government's long-missed target, leaving the door open for the central bank to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts next week. "The latest drop in Brazilian inflation leaves it only a whisker above the central bank's target and probably seals the deal on a larger 100-basis-point cut in interest rates at next week's Copom meeting," wrote Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.
loganair
30/3/2017
09:04
The good, the bad and the Donald: Countries to buy and avoid when it comes to the emerging markets By Jonathan Jones. Brazil and Russia should be on investor’s radars while Venezuela and Ukraine should be avoided within emerging markets as well as China and Mexico because of the Donald. . “If we are to believe Trump and his renewed friendship with Russia I think Russia becomes a country that you want to be invested in,” the manager said. “For ourselves we’ve got a lot of exposure to Russian corporates and have done since 2015/2016 and the reason behind that is in a perverse way the sanctions put in place have actually helped the Russian corporates.” Sanctions were placed on Russian exports and visas following the threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty in 2014, with western powers including the US and the European Union imposing bans. “As a result, when companies have come to market they’ve had to raise cash and de-lever so Russian corporates have got some of the lowest leverage out there and they’re cashflow positive. So there is no pressure on them to come to market to refinance,” Lad said. Indeed, while Russian equities have slipped back of late they are among the top performers since Trump was elected, 13 per cent higher since 8 November last year. The other country he likes is Brazil, which the manager began to invest in at the tail end of 2015 and is an example of looking at top-down and bottom-up fundamentals. Lad said: “Brazilian politics and economics all look pretty weak so the top-down investor probably says they wouldn’t touch Brazil as there was an impeachment potential as well as scandals about bribery and corruption. “But we looked at it slightly differently and said ‘yes the politics don’t look great and the economics aren’t great but actually let’s think about who benefits from this environment – it’s the corporates who are doing their trade with countries outside of Brazil’. “There they get dollar revenues and for the big exporters the currency depreciated 60 per cent and it doesn’t take a lot to work out which companies are doing business with countries outside of Brazil and not relying on the consumer for their revenues. “I think the story is still a positive one and the way we look at it is those countries that are willing to do reforms are where we feel most comfortable to be invested because emerging markets goes through cycles,” the AXA IM manager said. “Now you are getting countries like Argentina, Brazil to some extent, India, Indonesia, those are the sorts of places we feel comfortable investing in right now because we feel momentum is going in the right direction and change is happening.”
loganair
23/3/2017
11:07
Economic reforms including a revamp of Brazil's pension system may allow Latin America's largest economy to reach a 4 percent annual growth rate in coming years without stoking inflation, Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles said on Tuesday. Brazil's so-called potential growth rate currently stands at 2.5 percent, he added. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 3.6 percent last year, capping its longest and deepest downturn on record. Brazil's inflation eased as expected in mid-March towards the center of the official target as food and fuel prices fell, government data showed on Wednesday, paving the way for a sharper interest rate cut by the central bank. Consumer prices rose 4.73 percent in the 12 months through mid-March, down from 5.02 percent in mid-February and close to the 4.5 percent target. Falling inflation is expected by economists and investors to prompt the central bank to accelerate the pace of rate cuts at its next meeting in April and drive rates down to 8.50 percent by the end of 2018 from the current 12.25 percent. Brazil's sudden inflation slowdown highlights the unprecedented severity of the country's two-year recession and is helping President Michel Temer's economic team to restore the credibility of fiscal and monetary policy to curb price rises.
loganair
13/3/2017
10:07
Industrial output in Brazil rose on an annual basis in January for the first time in nearly three years, in a sign that a severe recession could be ending soon. Production increased 1.4 per cent from a year earlier, government statistics agency IBGE said on Thursday. Industrial output had been falling on an annual basis for 34 consecutive months as Brazil’s economy went through its worst recession on record. Data on Thursday showed the nation’s gross domestic product shrank 3.6 per cent in 2016, failing to improve in the fourth quarter as economists had forecast. The stronger-than-expected industrial performance in January strengthens the argument of many economists who see Brazil emerging from recession this quarter. Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles said the nation was “clearly”; growing again. “The data that we already have for February suggest another increase in industrial output,” economists with Sao Paulo-based Banco Bradesco wrote in a research note. Economists expect industrial output to grow 1.1 per cent in 2017 from 2016, according to a central bank survey.
loganair
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