Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[sea7] 20/9/2024 07:08

Thanks KS for your summary - very helpful

[croasdalelfc] 20/9/2024 06:12

KS - thanks for the updateIt's always worth remembering that Akatara is now the largest portion of 2P reserves for the whole group at 25.8m 2P.The gas has grown from 55BCF to 81BCF and the liquids from 8m to 12.3m.The liquids alone make this very cashflow generative and worth about £500m when produced and sold

[nigelpm] 19/9/2024 22:38

I'd prefer if everything material was released via RNS but then I'm an old fashioned so and so.

[king suarez] 19/9/2024 22:30

This is why it is good to go to these things first hand as you never know what might be revealed in the informal chats.

The point greatly emphasised about Akatara is that all of the cost recovery happens in the first 2-3 years, so the cash flow is very strong. Not only what JSE spent on development, but also I think he said around a further c$120m spend by the previous operator(?) so all in all $250-300m is cost recoverable whilst JSE earn their 90% - then it moves to 45% JSE share once all costs recovered.

They can produce far above the contracted rate, but they are only 'allowed' by the government to produce at a certain rate based on the formal reserve size - so currently they can do another 3mmcf - which they have negotiated with another taker at a slight premium to the rest - this will kick in at some point next year I think he said. After that they could raise it again, with a reserve upgrade, or alternatively extend the life of the contracts instead.

[chessman2] 19/9/2024 22:25

Thanks KS for your feedback.

[nigelpm] 19/9/2024 22:23

Thanks King S - some of that is quite material in my view - should really RNS that!

[sea7] 19/9/2024 20:21

Significant shareholders list updated from 31st july to 31st august

only changes are

hargreaves down to 3.98% from 4.13%
invesco up to 3.82% from 3.63%

[fireplace22] 19/9/2024 13:45

What a good time to be taken out by Tyrus or MBO or hybrid (for them, anyway). Very disillusioned shareholder base, Akatara yet to be seen to have any positive effect, potential for significant oil price hike at year end, share price on it's uppers?

[paduardo] 19/9/2024 13:17

Hi Pogue - they made a reference in an earlier presentation about talking with a second customer for taking additional gas at Akatara. Do they see that as still possible / straightforward without lots of capex etc(e.g. do they have enough gas volume)and are the discussions still ongoing? Can you also let us know if they give any hint or indication about how far off they think Akatara is from Full DCQ? Appreciate they cant be definitive and cant give sensitive information out but can you let us know if the give any indication e.g. they are expecting it to be a few weeks or is it months? Cheers

[mount teide] 19/9/2024 10:27

KS - Lol

Reminds me of an old Sea Captain addressing a new group of officers and crew who had just joined his ship:

"There are only two rules you need to concern yourselves with on this ship.

Rule 1 - The Captain is always right.

Rule 2 - On the very rare occasion when the Captain is not right, Rule 1 applies!"

[king suarez] 19/9/2024 08:52

1) What the eff are you going to do to turn around the share price?!

2) See 1

[pogue] 19/9/2024 08:33

I am going to the Proactive presentation tonight where JSE are presenting any questions anyone wants asked. I usually do this after the presentation when face to face.

[winnet] 19/9/2024 07:13

I would also add, regarding Tyrus, that everyone thinks these investment houses would automatically know how to run the businesses they invest in, better than the industry experts who currently run them, and that they have a reserve of super-execs waiting in the wings to take over the management. They do not. It's a fallacy.

[pughman] 18/9/2024 20:51

With JSE paying 9.8%(SOFR+4.5%)on their drawn RBL, the 50 basis point reduction in the Fed rate should lower the SOFR.

[mount teide] 18/9/2024 13:33

Tyrus Capital - Investment philosophy:

"Downside protection is key to all of our strategies"

Interesting comment considering they too are now circa 25-30% underwater after 6 years, having been up over 300%.

Tony Chedraoui(with Gordon Gekko hairstyle to match) - Founder, CIO & CEO of Tyrus Capital since 2009, is the Manager of the Event/Structured Portfolio the Jadestone investment sits in.

Tyrus Capital appear to have little researchable history of buying out even small businesses they're invested in.

AIMHO/DYOR

[winnet] 18/9/2024 13:00

they would have to have more than 24% to win any vote on that and if they start to go to the market to buy, that would push the price up. So, unlikely IMO.

[kaos3] 18/9/2024 12:58

same thoughts yasx ... happened too many times. just after all is set and before the free cash flow starts we get a 30 pc premium and a goodby

timing is always the same ... after all is invested and running but before the free cash flow starts. it usually is also the lowest sp

and here we are

[yasx] 18/9/2024 12:55

One potential cause for concern is (as I have stated previously) the intention of Tyrus and Co - perhaps a bleak picture suits them to take the entire business at some stage?

Not stating that with any degree of confidence, but it is worth bearing in mind.

[winnet] 18/9/2024 12:15

Messers Neuhauser and Waldner will be seriously down on their investment in JSE and I imagine they will have some grown up conversations about the future of this business. Is Blakley past his sell-by date? They will be the ones to decide. Can't remember the last time JSE released some news and we managed to hold any gain. It's depressingly poor and the temptation is to cut and run.

[puzzler2] 18/9/2024 10:41

Let's not forget that Tyrus own 26.4% of the company with Board representation - plus Gunter Waldner, also with 26.4% and who is a director. These are both substantial investments that both shareholders will expect to come good, so we can probably take some comfort from the fact that they will be directing decision making along the right path. The share price decline is annoying, but the company is now in a more positive position than it has been for a long time.

[fardels bear] 18/9/2024 09:49

How ridiculous

[pughman] 18/9/2024 09:13

Blakeley needs to make a substantial share purchase, because punters are starting to throw the towel in.

[controlledmadness] 18/9/2024 05:56

Not sure why no one pointed out that the payments for closing the wells and cleaning up will reduce in @H from 165 million to 18.5 million. That is an incrlease in profit of over 40 million.

[nigelpm] 17/9/2024 22:54

That kind of says it all from the presentation.

Market just doesn't believe the story.

"Akatara NPV10 at 31.12.23 exceeds Jadestone’s current market
capitalisation"