Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[king suarez] 06/10/2024 09:30

None of us can predict the future re: oil supply/demand balance and oil price, so I think it fair to keep an open mind. No doubt the opinions will swing back and forth over time. So long as it stays around $70 or so I think most of the O&G firms I'm invested in should be very happy. That price doesn't seem too onerous to sustain looking at long-term charts compared to other commodities?

[the_gold_mine] 06/10/2024 08:39

They are a good podcast but I take it for what it is a generalist overview of the market. Their oil analysis I don't give too much credence to, there was a hurricane a few weeks back which shut in a lot of Gulf of Mexico production but they didn't even pick up on it in the weekly US oil inventories discussion... Oil market analysis is a specialist game, and these guys are generalists only and can therefore only follow the general narratives of the day (in my opinion) rather than offer genuine in depth insights... AIMHO/DYOR

[winnet] 04/10/2024 15:05

Portfolio Matters is a great podcast. Really recommend it. Keith's horrendous bet on bonds teaches us lots of things about investing. Don't keep doubling down on your bets and have the humility to accept you are wrong. Good lessons in life and the stock market!

[king suarez] 04/10/2024 12:03

He's a former fund manager that retired early and plays the oil market cycles. He and a friend do a weekly podcast on the markets in general looking at various market data.

I just watched this one, which was solely about oil. He goes through the data and different forecasts from IEA, EIA and OPEC.

He's not predicting what OPEC will do, necessarily, just suggesting that the consensus forecast is for oil over supply short-term and that it's unlikely OPEC can increase production without dropping the oil price.

IEA are bullish on oil supply growth (particularly from US shale) OPEC are more bearish and think peak US oil supply will be reached in the next couple of years.

There's some interesting tidbits in there that I wasn't aware of such as US shale oil producers recently having to pay to flare off excess gas due to lack of transport/storage capacity, which will change soon to make the wells more profitable?

[stemis] 04/10/2024 11:55

Who is Keith Jordan and why should we believe he knows anything more than anyone else about what OPEC are going to do?

[king suarez] 04/10/2024 11:51

Yes, interesting analysis - the vid is here:

[winnet] 04/10/2024 11:03

Interesting video by Keith Jordan on the Portfolio Matters podcast last week. He basically says that he doesn't see oil going much higher until at least 2028. he says OPEC are just going to open the taps as they wish to head off any rally.

[mount teide] 04/10/2024 10:02

dd2 - that's the narrative for the masses!

Most will not be aware, or care, that the two factors most contributing to the current oil price is the West having depleted their Strategic Reserves to multi decade lows during the last 3-4 years and, FED/Wall Street creating a 50 times physical COMEX Oil Futures market during a period of all time record oil production in the run up to a US election, to create an all time record net oil paper short position.......much greater than that seen at the nadir of the Covid era when oil consumption dropped by over 15m bopd.

[danieldruff2] 04/10/2024 09:43

What's more problematic is it needs two major conflicts to keep oil over $70

[sga64] 04/10/2024 09:38

Fair point, bought into JSE on back of Blakeley having the billion dollar track record of building out O&G companies through astute M&A & deal making in Asia. Granted deals have been executed but to date as the share price shows the impact is regarded as v "underwhelming"! I can live with that but not with his Premier League compo & cuddly toys when JSE is effectively playing in the Championship (in old money Div 2). As a small fry shareholder such frustrations will no doubt fall on deaf ears.

[winnet] 04/10/2024 07:23

It's when he doesn't deliver is the issue, he gets paid a lot anyway. I think that's what gets up my nose. Remember Cedric "the pig", the British Gas CEO in the 1990's. He was taking huge salaries at a time when pensioners couldn't heat their homes. Theres something about equity and fairness here. We shareholders struggle, while he gets a 300k living allowance!

[nigelpm] 03/10/2024 19:22

Anyway much more important is delivery. A few hundred k is peanuts if he delivers

[nigelpm] 03/10/2024 19:13

Pretty normal to be honest.

[farrugia] 03/10/2024 18:36

'In addition to his base salary he is getting around $300k a year in living expenses, plus performance bonus(up to 150% of salary), pension, health and life insurance cover.'

this looks like an outrageous package to me.

[winnet] 03/10/2024 17:51

it does, its a terrible system, isn't it? No one ever wants to be a bottom-quartile payer!

[wooster4] 03/10/2024 17:50

Winnet, all companies benchmark against peers to ensure they are paying the market rate - however, many companies select inappropriate peers to give the appearance of being underpaid - explains the ratchet of executive pay over the past 20 years.

[mount teide] 03/10/2024 15:56

PB was based in the Far East for the last circa 10 years of his employment with Talisman Energy, following which he was headhunted by Mitra Energy/Jadestone Energy.

However, his LinkedIn account has Hunters Hill, Sydney NSW as his contact base at that time.

Sounds like, while based in SE Asia with Talisman, he either already owned or bought a property in Sydney after leaving Talisman. Enabling him to use this as his actual home base when negotiating with the activist hedge funds then running Mitra, to qualify for an 'overseas allowance' with Jadestone.

AIMHO/DYOR

[croasdalelfc] 03/10/2024 15:29

I once asked if he was glad to be home (UK) to see family (just post pandemic) - he replied he had no family in UK - I wonder what overseas means?

[wooster4] 03/10/2024 13:02

winnet - it you're referring to performance targets governing vesting, then all companies either disclose them on a forward-looking (most) and failing that, a retrospective basis. I think MT is referring to annual bonuses which are often rather more opaque and subjective.

[jeff114] 03/10/2024 08:14

Well MT as I remember the biggest evalution criteriul was reserve growth... one of the reasons why I sold, because it's not in the benefit of shareholders and company to grow at whatever cost.... And to base bonuses on that

[paduardo] 03/10/2024 08:09

Isn't there a slightly negative flip side to this - it means there isn't material undisclosed information e.g. they are not just about to announce full DCQ at Akatara.

[dunderheed] 03/10/2024 07:27

22594, good post MT.
22596, don't disagree but there should be an over riding TSR clause linked to "performance" as well IMHO.

[winnet] 03/10/2024 07:21

MT, it'll probably be because enough of the conditions of his LTIP, unrelated to the issue you notes, were met. The composition of LTIPs is not in the public domain.

[ashkv] 03/10/2024 07:20

Good to see PB putting a decent chunk of his money into JSE!!

Now please exceed your self set expectations/guidelines!!!

Good luck!!!