Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fireplace22] 18/7/2024 11:37

Not to mention Montara/Stag to get their industrial relations problem sorted (by the 20 th wasn't it?)

[puzzler2] 18/7/2024 11:29

Agreed Croasdalelfc - we just need an RNS confirming that all is going well, particularly Akatara, to shake off the negative perception of this company.

[croasdalelfc] 18/7/2024 10:46

Classic pennant chart - waiting to break to the upside on 29th

[sea7] 17/7/2024 09:31

a good article...



Though China is also undertaking a vast expansion of renewable energy, it is doing so by underwriting its grid’s basic security through the use of coal. In the Chinese version of securonomics, Beijing is making sure it has new sources of energy ready to go before switching off the old supply, and Britain would do well to match this outbreak of common sense

FROM THE COMMENTS SECTION AT THE END OF THE ARTICLE...


Prashant Kotak
3 days ago

The first consequence of rolling back on north sea oil is to add towards guaranteeing a high inflation/high interest rate environment for the foreseeable (yet another brick in that wall). A knock-on of that is, high interest payments on existing government debt for the foreseeable, and a precarious dependence on the markets who buy that debt, who will then de-facto dictate the terms of UK economic policy. And, as the Covid years demonstrated, those markets are capricious, essentially fashion and sentiment driven: governments world-wide borrowed whatever the hell they liked with no immediate consequences, but the minute Truss/Kwateng tried to alter the course of the UK economy, there was a run on the economy and they were brought to heel. Labour may not think so, but they are equally vulnerable to this capriciousness – they have no idea when (or why) their ideas will fall out of fashion and the markets turn on them.

[jacks13] 17/7/2024 08:36

From a search of previous RNSs it's the first notification they've received from River Global Investors, as far as I can see.

[ashkv] 17/7/2024 07:50

Isn't the below holding static from prior?

[mount teide] 16/7/2024 13:55

BP - How the mighty have fallen!

BP - 'Six months since BP appointed a new CEO with the promise of "growing the value", its market cap has slumped to a 2-year low of circa £75 billion. BP is a shadow of the mighty oil behemoth it once was -- and living on borrowed time.'.......Javier Blas - Bloomberg

Pivoting to renewables before the technology had been developed to generate acceptable commercial returns has proved a huge mistake for BP.

Exxon took a hard nosed view and continued pushing the overwhelming majority of its cash flow into O&G production development. Predictably, this incurred the wrath of the eco loon brigade but, the company has been proved entirely correct to do so:

5 Year Market Cap Low
$143 bn - Exxon
$33 bn - BP

Current Market Cap
$506 bn - Exxon
$74 bn - BP

Inconceivable a decade ago, BP is now of a size where its likely to increasingly become a bolt-on acquisition target for one of the three Majors!

[mount teide] 16/7/2024 13:12

ZeroGCoS - 'It was disappointing not seeing Vietnam mentioned in the guidance for the capex for 2024, not even for studies. It is clear that the negotiations for the gas sales agreement aren’t progressing towards enabling a FID in the short-term.

At least, Jadestone has finally signed the Heads of Agreement for the gas sales of Nam Du and U Minh Gas fields with Petrovietnam Gas Corporation and Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (Petrovietnam). This is an important step and will hopefully be followed by the gas purchase contract. Vietnam is supposed to become the next organic growth project for the company; now, it seems that the company is not pursuing its development at this moment.'

Disagree with ZGCoS with respect to development of the Vietnam assets. As mentioned previously here, the project will require circa $150-200m of upfront investment before first production, even with the supply of a circa $150m converted tanker FPSO being outsourced against a long term charter contract.

Additionally, the project carries very significant execution risk, as most shipyards are now fully booked out to 2026, suggesting that to time the availability of the FPSO to smoothly coincide with the completion of the marine civil engineering production infrastructure work at the field could be highly problematic.

I am relaxed about development of the Vietnam assets staying on the back burner for a year or two longer, unless a spectacular deal can be agreed with the Vietnamese.

Ideally, we should find a partner/s to spread the Vietnam execution risk - and keep spending the cash we are generating on more second phase bolt on acquisitions with immediate FCF generation, as the Vietnam project could well see the need to pump north of $200m of cash into it before a Nickel of FCF is generated.

[mount teide] 16/7/2024 12:44

S7 - tallies with my first hand experience and research.

Not only is the developing world a big place it is home to circa 85% of the world's population, and over the last 15 years has bolted on the entire population of the West as growth.

Developing countries with large, fast growing manufacturing industries and huge, growing populations need enormous amounts of cheap energy - for the next 20 years at least, this means fossil fuels will almost certainly be responsible for delivering the overwhelming majority of their energy needs, until ultra high EROEI(energy return on energy invested) nuclear starts to increasingly take over.

By 2050, I strongly suspect ultra low EROEI wind and solar farms will be little more than cottage industries in terms of the contribution they make to the overall global energy supply.

[sea7] 16/7/2024 12:13

The fact that the developing world is driving the increase in oil and gas demand while the developed world has seen a minor decline in its own demand for these—at the significant expense of deindustrialization—highlights a contradiction in one of the most popular transition arguments. It states that the transition will ensure abundant and affordable energy for everyone. However, the current state of the world is proof enough this is wishful thinking at best: the facts suggest that energy abundance lies with the energy sources the transition wants to do away with and replace.

and..

Yet this is not how things are moving on. There is that gap between the wealthy developed world, which is getting less wealthy as it directs ever-growing cash flows to the transition, and the poor developing world, which is getting wealthier because it is consuming more and more hydrocarbon energy—and it likes it. That’s how oil and gas will continue to dominate the global energy landscape in the future. The developing world is a big place.

[ashkv] 16/7/2024 12:07

A far far more thorough and complete analysis of Jadestone Energy rather than the dodgy one that was just presented on this bulletin board!!

Analysis Part 1 ->
Analysis Part 2 ->

[mount teide] 16/7/2024 11:53

Jadestone Energy - after a very strong performance(+233%) in the first three years post the Sept 2018 London IPO, Jadestone ran into difficulties and has been a major disappointment, due entirely to the poor handling and communication of the Montara FPSO issues. This issue is now overwhelmingly behind us and a much brighter future beckons due to Jadestone's second phase O&G sector investment model, where the management has a long track record of success.

Despite all the problems of the past two years the stock still performed very similar to DEC....largely the result of DEC's fortunes being linked directly to nat gas prices in a country with a very long history of expecting and delivering very cheap energy to its manufacturing industry and population.

'OakBloke's' capital gain performance in the upstream O&G sector over the last 2.75 years suggests he should have avoided bottom fishing, and concentrated his research on some of the London listed small/mid cap second phase O&G sector specialists buying high quality mid/late life, strong cash flow generating assets in maturing O&G basins of the world being divested by NOC's and IOC's.

My top three performing O&G investments over the last 2.75 years since the Arrow(AXL) London Listing have been these types of investment( all mentioned here shortly after I built a position):

Production entirely outside UK Tax Regime:
+ 855% - Valeura Energy
+ 365% - Afentra
+ 364% - Arrow Exploration

- 53% - Diversified Energy
- 63% - Jadestone Energy

Material Production within UK O&G Tax Regime
-23% - Harbour Energy
-41% - Serica Energy
-48% - Enquest
-66% - Kistos

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 16/7/2024 10:46

There are currently only five countries with more than 18% of the population working in manufacturing. All have very fast growing energy usage per capita.

Most will probably expect all five to be located in SE Asia. Not so, four are but, the fifth is Poland, who of the five now has the second highest GDP per capita at US$37k.

Vietnam is the only one currently going through a huge manufacturing boom, having cleverly positioned itself as a trade and manufacturing connector/hub between the US and China.

Miracle on the Han river


Source: World Bank & Bloomberg

[1ajm] 16/7/2024 10:44

Feral Bear keep your posts about JSE not posters please. Thanks.


Oak Bloke 'beyond 2024' was spot on. He mentioned Akatara plenty enough, its main 'transformational' impact will be not draining the RBL anymore, wish same could be said for Montara.

Expecting RNS soon.

[ashkv] 16/7/2024 10:29

I found Oakbloke analysis to be rather backward looking and negative in its tenor!!!

What is the crude price assumption he has for JSE in assuming his 2024 profit?

For DEC what forward gas price does he use? Currently DEC have hedges but US Gas price has been in the gutter. US Political risk for DEC, lawsuits related to methane etc

For JSE assertion not credible that Vietnam not proven for example - 2C via a third party CPR is unproven?? Farm-out for Vietnam partner underway which he doesn't mention!!! Other deal catalysts. Doesn't mention additional CWLH acquisition, weather issues for H1 2024 production....

List is endless!!

Whereas the dude is long on dodgy Petrotal - super high depletion rates, super high onshore drilling costs, extremely unstable host country, dodgy likely money siphoning costs such as tens of millions for "Erosion Control" - in a river side nonetheless / not the North Sea for sure :) Extremely high transportation costs [Alex Stahel on Twitter/X has conveyed that he believes money is being siphoned off in these contracts], history of frequent modulation full year guidance / in the recent past every 3-4 months based on native population unrest, river level issues as PTAL employs barges to transport crude, few other modes to export crude etc etc

Sub par analysis in toto!!!

nigelpm15 Jul '24 - 23:10 - 22147 of 22153
0 0 0
Great piece of work - author is incredible

hxxps://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/the-pr-jse-is-right

[tim000] 16/7/2024 09:59

Definitely no focus on Akatara by OB

[fardels bear] 16/7/2024 09:44

Only recently there have been many negative posts by pughman. It's becoming increasingly boring to read his posts on the subject of JSE. Does he hold any, I wonder. If so, why?

[nigelpm] 16/7/2024 09:28

I thought it was a good piece by OB - very balanced - perhaps not much focus on the transformation Akatara will bring - maybe that was lacking in the analysis.

On that point an RNS should be imminent.

[tim000] 16/7/2024 08:30

They’ve diversified out of Australia far more.

[pughman] 16/7/2024 08:20

Only recently there was another union dispute in Australia for JSE. It is becoming increasingly unattractive for oil companies, yet Blakeley continues to buy assets there.

[tim000] 16/7/2024 07:52

He wasn’t particularly enamoured with JSE. I think he’s wrong. He often is. Sondrel was a shocker.

[dustinthyme] 16/7/2024 07:40

Will the market be logical with JSE? If an imminent rebound rarely happens, as you say, should JSE holders sell up then?..... Given its dreadful price history.