Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 16/7/2024 11:07

A far far more thorough and complete analysis of Jadestone Energy rather than the dodgy one that was just presented on this bulletin board!!

Analysis Part 1 ->
Analysis Part 2 ->

[mount teide] 16/7/2024 10:53

Jadestone Energy - after a very strong performance(+233%) in the first three years post the Sept 2018 London IPO, Jadestone ran into difficulties and has been a major disappointment, due entirely to the poor handling and communication of the Montara FPSO issues. This issue is now overwhelmingly behind us and a much brighter future beckons due to Jadestone's second phase O&G sector investment model, where the management has a long track record of success.

Despite all the problems of the past two years the stock still performed very similar to DEC....largely the result of DEC's fortunes being linked directly to nat gas prices in a country with a very long history of expecting and delivering very cheap energy to its manufacturing industry and population.

'OakBloke's' capital gain performance in the upstream O&G sector over the last 2.75 years suggests he should have avoided bottom fishing, and concentrated his research on some of the London listed small/mid cap second phase O&G sector specialists buying high quality mid/late life, strong cash flow generating assets in maturing O&G basins of the world being divested by NOC's and IOC's.

My top three performing O&G investments over the last 2.75 years since the Arrow(AXL) London Listing have been these types of investment( all mentioned here shortly after I built a position):

Production entirely outside UK Tax Regime:
+ 855% - Valeura Energy
+ 365% - Afentra
+ 364% - Arrow Exploration

- 53% - Diversified Energy
- 63% - Jadestone Energy

Material Production within UK O&G Tax Regime
-23% - Harbour Energy
-41% - Serica Energy
-48% - Enquest
-66% - Kistos

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 16/7/2024 09:46

There are currently only five countries with more than 18% of the population working in manufacturing. All have very fast growing energy usage per capita.

Most will probably expect all five to be located in SE Asia. Not so, four are but, the fifth is Poland, who of the five now has the second highest GDP per capita at US$37k.

Vietnam is the only one currently going through a huge manufacturing boom, having cleverly positioned itself as a trade and manufacturing connector/hub between the US and China.

Miracle on the Han river


Source: World Bank & Bloomberg

[1ajm] 16/7/2024 09:44

Feral Bear keep your posts about JSE not posters please. Thanks.


Oak Bloke 'beyond 2024' was spot on. He mentioned Akatara plenty enough, its main 'transformational' impact will be not draining the RBL anymore, wish same could be said for Montara.

Expecting RNS soon.

[ashkv] 16/7/2024 09:29

I found Oakbloke analysis to be rather backward looking and negative in its tenor!!!

What is the crude price assumption he has for JSE in assuming his 2024 profit?

For DEC what forward gas price does he use? Currently DEC have hedges but US Gas price has been in the gutter. US Political risk for DEC, lawsuits related to methane etc

For JSE assertion not credible that Vietnam not proven for example - 2C via a third party CPR is unproven?? Farm-out for Vietnam partner underway which he doesn't mention!!! Other deal catalysts. Doesn't mention additional CWLH acquisition, weather issues for H1 2024 production....

List is endless!!

Whereas the dude is long on dodgy Petrotal - super high depletion rates, super high onshore drilling costs, extremely unstable host country, dodgy likely money siphoning costs such as tens of millions for "Erosion Control" - in a river side nonetheless / not the North Sea for sure :) Extremely high transportation costs [Alex Stahel on Twitter/X has conveyed that he believes money is being siphoned off in these contracts], history of frequent modulation full year guidance / in the recent past every 3-4 months based on native population unrest, river level issues as PTAL employs barges to transport crude, few other modes to export crude etc etc

Sub par analysis in toto!!!

nigelpm15 Jul '24 - 23:10 - 22147 of 22153
0 0 0
Great piece of work - author is incredible

hxxps://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/the-pr-jse-is-right

[tim000] 16/7/2024 08:59

Definitely no focus on Akatara by OB

[fardels bear] 16/7/2024 08:44

Only recently there have been many negative posts by pughman. It's becoming increasingly boring to read his posts on the subject of JSE. Does he hold any, I wonder. If so, why?

[nigelpm] 16/7/2024 08:28

I thought it was a good piece by OB - very balanced - perhaps not much focus on the transformation Akatara will bring - maybe that was lacking in the analysis.

On that point an RNS should be imminent.

[tim000] 16/7/2024 07:30

They’ve diversified out of Australia far more.

[pughman] 16/7/2024 07:20

Only recently there was another union dispute in Australia for JSE. It is becoming increasingly unattractive for oil companies, yet Blakeley continues to buy assets there.

[tim000] 16/7/2024 06:52

He wasn’t particularly enamoured with JSE. I think he’s wrong. He often is. Sondrel was a shocker.

[dustinthyme] 16/7/2024 06:40

Will the market be logical with JSE? If an imminent rebound rarely happens, as you say, should JSE holders sell up then?..... Given its dreadful price history.

[lord gnome] 16/7/2024 05:09

Oak's analysis and logic are impeccable but sadly, the market has never been logical.He has always been a big fan of DEC, so his preference is no surprise. I read his take on JSE as being quite negative.

[tim000] 15/7/2024 22:29

I’m surprised he prefers DEC, although perhaps not as despite the amount of research he does his record to date is poor. Almost exclusively he prefers stocks that have a dreadful price history but thinks somehow, once he has made the investor community see the errors of their ways, an imminent rebound will occur. But it rarely happens.

[nigelpm] 15/7/2024 22:10

Great piece of work - author is incredible

hxxps://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/the-pr-jse-is-right

[tim000] 15/7/2024 21:35

Annoying yes, but it will be resolved. Not that big an issue imho from a long term perspective.

[mount teide] 15/7/2024 18:42

f22 - 'I'll give you one guess:'

Lol!

[fireplace22] 15/7/2024 14:35

'Who in their right mind would want to be shackled to that hugely over-regulated economic three legged donkey?'

I'll give you one guess:

The new European Union relations minister is heading to Brussels to stress the Labour Government’s commitment to “resetting the relationship” with the bloc.

Nick Thomas-Symonds is meeting European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic for their first face-to-face talks on Monday to “set the ground for further discussions” on deepening ties, according to the Cabinet Office.

It comes ahead of the European Political Community summit Sir Keir Starmer is hosting at Blenheim Palace later this week.

Our Government is committed to resetting the relationship with the European Union, to strengthen ties, reinforce our security and tackle barriers to trade

Nick Thomas-Symonds
The Prime Minister will welcome 45 leaders from neighbouring countries on Thursday as he seeks to forge an ambitious new UK-EU security pact to strengthen co-operation and closer work on defence with key allies such as France and Germany.

[mount teide] 15/7/2024 12:16

ashkv - thanks, holding my own and feel as well as I can reasonably expect considering the formidable foe I'm standing toe to toe with again!

Took that Trump quote from 'memory' - taught me to check the accuracy of my recollections in future, as in this case they proved about as accurate as some of Biden's!

Trump's actual quote was made in 2018:

“Oil prices getting lower. Great! Like a big Tax Cut for America and the World. Enjoy! $54, was just $82. Thank you to Saudi Arabia, but let’s go lower!,”

[mount teide] 15/7/2024 10:41

ashkv - Ref: Trump and global oil prices - be careful for what you wish!

During 2016-2020, Brent averaged $55.31/bbl - largely the result of Trump strong arming the Saudis and Opec to lift production while the US Shale sector was adding circa 1.0m bopd production growth a year.

When he got Brent down below $30/bbl in H1/2016, he called up the Saudi's and said something along the lines of: "We've got oil down to $30, let's go lower - oil should not be above $20/bbl on the global market".

Brent bottomed shortly afterwards at $28/bbl