Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 10/7/2024 12:28

D'heed - thanks - interesting to note both jurisdictions have a long history of O&G industry innovation and development.

Sadly, that dynamic approach seems to have all but evaporated in the UK under 25 years of centre left governments pushing extreme, highly expensive 'green' agenda's/policies with little democratic support.

[dunderheed] 10/7/2024 12:09

MT to be honest they have always been very forward thinking and creative, going back more than 25 years ago when I worked in both jurisdictions.

[mount teide] 10/7/2024 12:03

O/T

UK O&G Sector versus Maturing O&G Basins of the World where IOC's and NIOC's are now divesting mid/late life assets?

The impact of the Tory's usury windfall tax on the UK O&G industry and threat, since realised, of an incoming socialist Labour Government's proposed policy to increase the total tax take to 78% and end the deductibility of Capex, is very likely to lead to the complete collapse of exploration activity and most production development.

Beware of unintended consequences - The financial distress of most small/mid cap UK focused E&P companies is a near certainty, with many likely to fail(who would want to buy their 'assets'?), thereby increasing the risk of a sizeable proportion of the North Sea O&G sector's decommissioning costs becoming the responsibility of the taxpayer.

What a contrast to the forward thinking governments of Angola and Malaysia - who this decade have made their O&G industries some of the most competitive in the world to attract foreign investment - with predictable results: a tsunami of new investment to enable the natural divestment of mid/late stage assets from NOC's and the Majors to second phase small/mid cap's with a proven track record of safely operating these type of assets.


Shareprice performance since Arrow Exploration's London listing in October 2021

Production entirely outside UK Tax Regime:
+ 855% - Valeura Energy
+ 365% - Afentra
+ 364% - Arrow Exploration

Material Production within UK O&G Tax Regime
-23% - Harbour Energy
-41% - Serica Energy
-48% - Enquest
-66% - Kistos

Top three are focused on regions of world where government objectives include maximising O&G output at producing fields, by granting license extensions and favourable fiscal terms to investors, enabling cost recovery regardless of infill well results.

With respect to O&G equity investment it's certainly helpful to have this downside protection of a 'Flood Tide'(highly competitive fiscal and operational terms, and long license extensions for mature assets), and the upside potential of a 'Strong Tail Wind'(high quality mid/late life assets being divested by IOC's and NOC's at very competitive prices) behind you!

Essential if you wish to attract high quality second phase operators looking to minimise shareholder risk and maximise investment return.

Infuriatingly, the UK's third rate political and institutional class seem determined to destroy what is left of our once world leading offshore O&G industry. It is a policy that is economically naive in the extreme and putting our energy security during the transition phase to clean energy at huge risk, as New Zealand and Australia are already finding out.


You get a helluva lot for your money when buying large mid life O&G assets in the maturing O&G basins of the world like Angola and Malaysia, with a backdated effective economic date in a rising oil price environment!

UK - Rosebank Field - First Oil expected 2026 - (Gross Figures)
336m - P2 Reserves
69,000 bopd - Estimated Peak Production
$8.2 bn - Project Cost (Source: Energy Voice)

Equinor has a $1.5bn price tag for a farm out of 20% of the asset - the buyer would then have a further outlay of over US$2 billion before first oil.

At least a 75% UK tax rate until 2029.


Angola - Block 3/05 + 3/05A (Gross Figures)

Block Licence End Date: December 2040
108m bbls - 3/05 - P2 Reserves
43m bbls - 3/05 - 2C Resources
62m bbls - 3/05A - 2C Resources

23,000 bopd - Current production
40,000 bopd - 2028 production target

3.5bn bbls - STOIIP 3/05 + 3/05A
1.3bn bbls - Produced from 3/05 to date / 42% recovery rate (target >50%/+250m bbls)
2.5m bbls - Produced from 3/05A to date / 1% recovery rate(target > 30%/+90m bbls)

Afentra will have likely paid a net circa $9.7m (after sale of oil inventory but before modest outstanding contingencies) for 30% of Block 3/05 and 21.33% of Block 3/05A.

3/05 - Updated Fiscal Terms from 1/1/2024 improve contractors’ cost oil limit from 65% to 75%, and the contractors’ profit oil share from 30% to 40%. As a result Afentra's net NPV at a 10% discount rate increased from US$214.5 MM to US$254.9 MM.

3/05A - Fiscal Terms for Marginal Field



In addition to that already announced, the Angolan O&G regulator is planning new legislation in H2/2024, with respect to further contract and fiscal incentives to encourage the reactivation of production and drive operational efficiency in assets previously suspended due to low oil prices.

'Marginal Projects: Many oil and gas activities in development areas were suspended when deemed not economically viable. The Government's intent is to encourage the reactivation of these activities within development areas.

Legislation will enhance the oil and gas business environment, providing new guidance on oil and gas operations and processes that include streamlining of work programs.

The Government also plans to implement contract and fiscal incentives that will promote operational efficiency in mature and marginal fields.'

[upwego] 10/7/2024 11:56

Just topped up 10K had to place the order at best would not even let me nut 5k through quote & deal.

[mount teide] 10/7/2024 11:49

'Third, long-term divestment from oil and gas [whatever we think about the relative merits of this] is hurting the sector.'

Global upstream oil and gas capex is expected to grow by $24 billion this year, surpassing $600 billion for the first time in a decade. Annual investment will need to grow by another $135 billion, or 22%, to $738 billion by 2030 to ensure adequate supply.


Growing Demand to Increase Upstream Oil & Gas Investment Needs 22% by 2030 - International Energy Forum - June 2024

'Annual upstream oil and gas capital expenditures will need to rise by 22 percent by 2030 to ensure adequate supplies due to growing demand and cost inflation, according to a new report by the International Energy Forum and S&P Global Commodity Insights.

A cumulative $4.3 trillion in new investments will be needed between 2025 and 2030, according to the "Upstream Oil and Gas Investment Outlook" report published today. The growing capital expenditure (capex) needs are based on an outlook that sees demand for oil rising from 103 million barrels per day (bpd)in 2023 to nearly 110 million bpd by 2030.

"More investment in new oil and gas supply is needed to meet growing demand and maintain energy market stability, which is the foundation of global economic and social wellbeing," said Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of the IEF. "Well-supplied and stable energy markets are critical to making progress on climate, because the alternative is high prices and volatility, which undermines public support for the transition as we have seen in the past two years."

The report found that global upstream oil and gas capex is expected to grow by $24 billion this year, surpassing $600 billion for the first time in a decade. Annual investment will need to grow by another $135 billion, or 22 percent, to $738 billion by 2030 to ensure adequate supply, the report says.

Roger Diwan, Vice-President at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said that "expected production declines and future demand growth will require re-investing existing cash flows even as the transition proceeds."

More than 60 percent of the projected increase in upstream capex between now and 2030 would be focused in the Americas, according to the report, co-authored by Allyson Cutright, Senior Energy Market Analyst at the IEF, Roger Diwan, and Karim Fawaz, Director of the Energy Advisory Service at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

While the United States and Canada are expected to be the largest drivers of capex growth to 2030, Latin America plays an increasingly significant role in non-OPEC supply growth, particularly for conventional crude, with large expansions in Brazil and Guyana.

The report noted significant uncertainty around the trajectory for global oil and gas demand and the pace of the energy transition to net zero CO2 emissions.

"Base-case forecasts from consensus-leading organizations diverge by as much as 7 million bpd for 2030 and this gap widens to 27 million bpd when more ambitious climate scenarios are included," the report says.

However, increased capital expenditure in upstream oil and gas supports energy security and the energy transition, the report says.

"A just, orderly and equitable transition requires a foundation of energy security," it says. "The past two years have demonstrated the consequences of 'disorderly' transitions: price shocks, shortages, disruptions, political backlash, bitter divisions and conflict." '

[winnet] 10/7/2024 11:43

I cannot see the warrants being an issue, as they won't exercise until such times as they can generate a decent profit in a cashless exercise. When the share price is signficantly above the strike price, then I will expect to see some of them showing up.

---

But surely you can see this would depress the share price above the strike price. Hence the long-term potential of the share price?

[sea7] 10/7/2024 11:31

I cannot see the warrants being an issue, as they won't exercise until such times as they can generate a decent profit in a cashless exercise. When the share price is signficantly above the strike price, then I will expect to see some of them showing up.

there are 30 million warrants at 50p valid 36 months from mid 2023. Tyrus can drip feed these in over a period of time, to bank the £15 million from them and the company can easily replace any that are unexercised, if they so wish, after the expiry date.

[ashkv] 10/7/2024 11:16

Warrants are at 50p (corrected - I had 55p) - so a massive upside prior to exercise price on Warrants!!!

I concur that a lack of sentiment for O&G and once, twice, thrice bitten market is shy in regards to JSE - Hopefully CEO redeems himself!!!

I personally am a bit taken aback that the market didn't react to Akatara being in initial stages of full operation!!!

It is a big project / and a big step in the right direction for JSE in regards to a transition hydrocarbon!!!

No serious buying but at least no serious selling - so is the bottom in?

[itsriskythat] 10/7/2024 09:33

Zero interest shown in Jadestone at present

[ashkv] 09/7/2024 18:40

Wow for the full day only a miniscule 9 trades

# Trades 9
Vol. Sold 104,696
Sold Value £32.89k
Vol. Bought 10,445
Bought Value £3.30k

[1ajm] 05/7/2024 23:08

Why don't you filter me? Feral bear.

or keep your posts about JSE and not the posters.

Thanks.

[fardels bear] 05/7/2024 18:14

Go and be alarmed somewhere else

[1ajm] 05/7/2024 17:44

Offshore Alliance page looks like a crazy conspiracy page.

Share price dropping at this point is alarming.

[ashkv] 05/7/2024 13:47

Another very low volume day so far ->

Nearing 1pm GMT and only 7 small sell trades

# Trades 7
Vol. Sold 39,239
Sold Value £12.55k
Vol. Bought 0
Bought Value £N/A

[fardels bear] 03/7/2024 15:29

Eh? Where?

[fireplace22] 03/7/2024 09:00

Cheers ashkv.

[ashkv] 03/7/2024 08:57

It is an operations / engineering start-up process - both Akatara Plant and end customers!!

First Gas has been introduced to the system and start-up processes/checks/hand-over from contractor staff is ongoing / refer to recent RNS on the same!!

First gas delivery was guided for July 2024 / and should if all is well be conveyed at the month end update!

fireplace223 Jul '24 - 08:36 - 22052 of 22053
0 1 0
Is it an engineering situation or a commercial decision we're waiting on for first gas sales?

[neo26] 03/7/2024 08:41

Two directors getting the boot.

[fireplace22] 03/7/2024 08:36

Is it an engineering situation or a commercial decision we're waiting on for first gas sales?

[winnet] 03/7/2024 08:31

Sounds probable.

[paduardo] 03/7/2024 08:30

This might be a bit conspiratorial but last year the update was on the 20th of July and was not notified in advance. This year it is on the 29th and has been notified. Normally companies update on the same day / near as possible each year which suggest to me they are expecting first gas sales on or around the 20th so the are delaying the trading update so they can be sure they don't have to face shareholders until it has happened!