Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[yasx] 10/7/2024 16:07

I thinknyou could find better cabinets at MFI - that hit the wall so it is saying something!

As for grown ups in charge, single digit IQ Rayner, deluded Dianne Abbott, Numpty Nandy and Liability Lammy.

I would not employ that bunch to empty the bins since I suspect they would fail to do even that.

[winnet] 10/7/2024 15:53

Whenever you and I discuss politics, MT, we always disagree. In a quiet period we seem to be going way off topic. However, it's interesting, that we both think JSE is a compelling investment and we both believe that the market, to some extent, is a suitable vehicle for human progress.

Lord Mandelson is a hate figure for the right, partly because to a certain extent, he took their toy [aka neolibralism] and refused to return it.

In terms of the so-called democracy deficit in the EU whihc you allude to [often rolled out by Brexiteers as a significant factor for our departure from the EU], it was always the case that our MEPs could be voted out and were accountable to the electorate in the UK via the ballot box. It was always also the case that some "sovereignty" [a favorite word in Brexity cicles] was to be pooled in return for a stake in the EU project. That's was the quid pro quo, some people were comfortable with it, some not, but in retrospect, not many people can claim that we have diverged in any meaningful way [which new laws have changed your life MT?] - why? Economics. As Adam Posen, famously, said, "The rules of gravity apply". It is simply not in the national interest to have any serious regulatory divergence, nor is it sensible to pretend that financial services in the City offer any real advantages over those delivered in Paris or Frankfurt. Many good colleagues [I hasten to use the word "talented", a word which I do not like], have moved overseas. The results of this whole car crash over the last 8 years is a significant fall in GDP which is becoming entrenched, no wonder Starmer is looking for a Single Market style deal.

As for your other points, I don't like the system in the second chamber either, but i am also a staunch Republican, so make of that what you will. I do agree with you, and there are people we could call out on all sides. It has however always been thus since we did away with hereditary peers [a much worse system!].

The final thing i would say is that it doesn't matter to me if the cabinet have ever been employed or "worked" in the commercial sector. If that matters to you, great! Me, nah.

[mount teide] 10/7/2024 14:55

winnet - all most of the Labour and Tory front benches have done in their entire adult 'working' lives is to have 'jobs' where they get to spend other peoples money very poorly, with virtually zero accountability.

Over the last 35 years the voters have routinely kicked them out of Westminster for failing to deliver, only to see many resurface in the House of Lords or European Commission (Kinnock and Mandelson - where both were able to make over 70% of the new laws the UK had to follow at the time, despite the UK electorate twice voting in National elections to stop Kinnock from having such responsibility, and Mandelson a man who was twice forced to quit the Cabinet, only to return a third time before moving on to the House of Lords!

The contempt the current Labour Party leadership, together with Kinnock, Mandelson and Blair to name a few, and the Tory party leadership since 2010, has had for the electorate has been nauseating.

[fardels bear] 10/7/2024 14:45

They are mostly open cast though rather than deep, galleried workings with the propensity to flood catastrophically..

[sea7] 10/7/2024 13:36

Grown ups in charge?

you actually credit any politician of any stripe being credible - not one person is capable of barely even organising regular refuse collection in their own constituency let alone running the country.

[winnet] 10/7/2024 13:33

yawn @ the torygraphy.

Good to see some grown ups back in charge.

[yasx] 10/7/2024 13:03

Winnet,

You are right - they are not centre left, but well left of centre left.

The telegraph article posted by MT essentially summarises the situation.

[sea7] 10/7/2024 12:37

well written piece - and where are we today - continuing with another bunch of fools, voted in by fools, that slavishly lap up all the doctrine and dross doled out from westminster.

our job as investors is to capitalise on the stupidity of them all and to invest in areas of the world that they still think are behind them in development.

anyhow, not to worry - all those handwringers in parliament now, will be trying to dance to everyones tune over the coming months and will be seen to have two left feet

[mount teide] 10/7/2024 12:20

Winnet - Think I'll leave it to award winning journalist Leo McKinstry, who wrote an excellent article in the Telegraph on this very subject - explaining it very well.


Why are the Conservatives governing like socialists?

'This Government's incompetence, spiralling debt and pervasive wokery makes it feel often as if Labour actually won the election

The Tories won an overwhelming victory at the 2019 General Election. A new era of robust Conservatism seemed to beckon. Yet the next four years saw the UK sink ever deeper into the mire of incompetence, debt and progressive dogma, to the extent you'd have thought a Labour Government had been elected.

Left-wing values were followed on everything from immigration, crime, bureaucracy to public spending. And, as always happens when the socialists are in charge, the expansion of the state was accompanied by chronic inefficiency and petty authoritarianism.

It has been a bizarre experience to be living under a Government which in theory was Conservative, but in practice issued endless instructions about our behaviour, puts over nine million people on the state payroll, subsidised visits to restaurants, obsesses about diversity, destroys the integrity of the state exam system, and presided over spiralling crime.

The last Labour Government under Gordon Brown was also notorious for its profligacy, dragging Britain towards the brink of bankruptcy. Tragically, the same process was followed by the last Tory Government.

Over the last 5 years the Conservatives’ image as the party of sound money was dealt a terminal blow. Infuriatingly, much of the largesse was squandered through waste, cronyism, and the self-interests of the political and public sector elite.

By way of example, under the Tories, the HS2 rail link has became a vast exercise in
subsidised avarice, with the average worker on the project costing the taxpayer an almost unbelievable £95,000-a-year.

Fat cats are now positively flourishing in Whitehall, quangoland and local government. According to the Taxpayers’ Alliance, there are 2667 municipal officials on over £100,000-a-year, and 32 of them on over £250,000-a-year......with most still 'working' from home!

Even more disturbing is the last Government’s pathetic submission to the woke agenda. In his previous career as a journalist, Boris Johnson raged against the antics of loony left, which in the 1980s became a byword for ideological extremism.

Under Johnson's premiership, the revolutionary spirit of the GLC and Islington Council now swirls through the corridors of power. Every public body swallowed the divisive nonsense of woke culture and critical race theory.......it's as if Ken Livingstone had come back and taken control on a national scale.

Diversity became the official creed of the state, ruthlessly enforced by McCarthyite witch-hunts against any dissenters. Statues, buildings, street names and art works are all reviewed for their compliance with the latest social justice edicts. The school curriculum was “decolonised”. Race quotas imposed on everything from jobs recruitment to BBC output.

No institution has been safe from the new British thought police. The Victoria and Albert Museum, introduced staff training to “address hidden prejudices and micro-iniquities.221; Lol!

Public bodies used to be primarily vehicles for the delivery of vital services. Today, they are instruments for indoctrination, where quality and effectiveness count far less than correct opinions. The Government’s shameful tolerance of this shift is part of a collapse of confidence in traditional, Conservative values.

The handwringing “all must have prizes” mentality was matched by the “all must come in” mentality on border controls. Despite the tough rhetoric from the Home Secretary, the department has utterly failed to get a grip on the traffic of illegal migrant boats across the English Channel.

Indeed, there was never any sign that Boris Johnson’s Government was willing to reduce immigration at all. According to the latest figures, a record-breaking 1.2m people settled here in the last year, imposing a further huge burden on public services and undermining social cohesion.

Contrary to all the upbeat propaganda from the open border brigade, less than a third of this huge influx of new arrivals actually came here to work.

Even that globally renowned bastion of security, the British police, has succumbed to the warped values of woke oppression and gesture politics. While senior officers bend the knee or fly flags for travellers’ rights, just 7 per cent of crimes result in any action by the justice system.

For all its chronic failings, the modern British state has lost none of its self-importance. Just the opposite is the case. A bloated, bullying attention-seeker, the ineffectual Government machine completely dominates our lives. Every news bulletin is hogged by reports by reports about the minutiae of the public sector, from tinkering with quangos to university admissions. Whether in vox pops or discussion shows, the views of public sector workers fill the airwaves.

No one could guess from the endless roll-call of students, nurses, teachers and civil servants in the Question Time audience that, before Covid, 83 per cent of the national workforce was employed in the private sector. At the height of the lockdown, millions were encouraged to take part in a weekly ritual of applause for staff in the NHS, though such uncritical admiration is both unhealthy and a barrier to reform. It belongs to a socialist regime, not a democracy built on freedom and enterprise. '

[fardels bear] 10/7/2024 12:05

Bit like coal, Dh. No skilled workers left who could recommission any of our erstwhile hugely productive collieries. Will UKCS too be consigned prematurely to the pages of history?

[dunderheed] 10/7/2024 11:44

I know 22974/5. The issue with NS is such that, apart from one or two new (potential) self-sufficient assets once you start to close off infrastructure, it'll be non reversible for what could have been a large amount of satellite/stranded assets.
Sheer madness to offshore (beyond UK waters) HC development merely to virtue signal "cutting back" on a totally irrelevant worldwide HC production anyway. Truly bizarre. I think even SNP "got that" (eventually).

[winnet] 10/7/2024 11:43

The sad fact is that the expression "the stupidity of an MP Is purely an extension of the stupidity of the elecorate that voted them in" is even more relevant now than it ever has been.

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I have tried no to "bite" for some time, but seriously, this must be satire.

As for the fault for the lack of innovation being 25 years of "centre-left" government - where exqactly do Johnson, Truss, Sunack sit on centre left. PMSL! Maybe slightly more on the center, than left? Jeez.

[sea7] 10/7/2024 11:35

over recent years and it appears likely to be in the immediate future,the Uk has been festooned with incompetent MP's, who are out of their depth, who pander to every sob story and woke do gooder possible and in the process have wrecked almost everything they touch.

The sad fact is that the expression "the stupidity of an MP Is purely an extension of the stupidity of the elecorate that voted them in" is even more relevant now than it ever has been.

[mount teide] 10/7/2024 11:28

D'heed - thanks - interesting to note both jurisdictions have a long history of O&G industry innovation and development.

Sadly, that dynamic approach seems to have all but evaporated in the UK under 25 years of centre left governments pushing extreme, highly expensive 'green' agenda's/policies with little democratic support.

[dunderheed] 10/7/2024 11:09

MT to be honest they have always been very forward thinking and creative, going back more than 25 years ago when I worked in both jurisdictions.

[mount teide] 10/7/2024 11:03

O/T

UK O&G Sector versus Maturing O&G Basins of the World where IOC's and NIOC's are now divesting mid/late life assets?

The impact of the Tory's usury windfall tax on the UK O&G industry and threat, since realised, of an incoming socialist Labour Government's proposed policy to increase the total tax take to 78% and end the deductibility of Capex, is very likely to lead to the complete collapse of exploration activity and most production development.

Beware of unintended consequences - The financial distress of most small/mid cap UK focused E&P companies is a near certainty, with many likely to fail(who would want to buy their 'assets'?), thereby increasing the risk of a sizeable proportion of the North Sea O&G sector's decommissioning costs becoming the responsibility of the taxpayer.

What a contrast to the forward thinking governments of Angola and Malaysia - who this decade have made their O&G industries some of the most competitive in the world to attract foreign investment - with predictable results: a tsunami of new investment to enable the natural divestment of mid/late stage assets from NOC's and the Majors to second phase small/mid cap's with a proven track record of safely operating these type of assets.


Shareprice performance since Arrow Exploration's London listing in October 2021

Production entirely outside UK Tax Regime:
+ 855% - Valeura Energy
+ 365% - Afentra
+ 364% - Arrow Exploration

Material Production within UK O&G Tax Regime
-23% - Harbour Energy
-41% - Serica Energy
-48% - Enquest
-66% - Kistos

Top three are focused on regions of world where government objectives include maximising O&G output at producing fields, by granting license extensions and favourable fiscal terms to investors, enabling cost recovery regardless of infill well results.

With respect to O&G equity investment it's certainly helpful to have this downside protection of a 'Flood Tide'(highly competitive fiscal and operational terms, and long license extensions for mature assets), and the upside potential of a 'Strong Tail Wind'(high quality mid/late life assets being divested by IOC's and NOC's at very competitive prices) behind you!

Essential if you wish to attract high quality second phase operators looking to minimise shareholder risk and maximise investment return.

Infuriatingly, the UK's third rate political and institutional class seem determined to destroy what is left of our once world leading offshore O&G industry. It is a policy that is economically naive in the extreme and putting our energy security during the transition phase to clean energy at huge risk, as New Zealand and Australia are already finding out.


You get a helluva lot for your money when buying large mid life O&G assets in the maturing O&G basins of the world like Angola and Malaysia, with a backdated effective economic date in a rising oil price environment!

UK - Rosebank Field - First Oil expected 2026 - (Gross Figures)
336m - P2 Reserves
69,000 bopd - Estimated Peak Production
$8.2 bn - Project Cost (Source: Energy Voice)

Equinor has a $1.5bn price tag for a farm out of 20% of the asset - the buyer would then have a further outlay of over US$2 billion before first oil.

At least a 75% UK tax rate until 2029.


Angola - Block 3/05 + 3/05A (Gross Figures)

Block Licence End Date: December 2040
108m bbls - 3/05 - P2 Reserves
43m bbls - 3/05 - 2C Resources
62m bbls - 3/05A - 2C Resources

23,000 bopd - Current production
40,000 bopd - 2028 production target

3.5bn bbls - STOIIP 3/05 + 3/05A
1.3bn bbls - Produced from 3/05 to date / 42% recovery rate (target >50%/+250m bbls)
2.5m bbls - Produced from 3/05A to date / 1% recovery rate(target > 30%/+90m bbls)

Afentra will have likely paid a net circa $9.7m (after sale of oil inventory but before modest outstanding contingencies) for 30% of Block 3/05 and 21.33% of Block 3/05A.

3/05 - Updated Fiscal Terms from 1/1/2024 improve contractors’ cost oil limit from 65% to 75%, and the contractors’ profit oil share from 30% to 40%. As a result Afentra's net NPV at a 10% discount rate increased from US$214.5 MM to US$254.9 MM.

3/05A - Fiscal Terms for Marginal Field



In addition to that already announced, the Angolan O&G regulator is planning new legislation in H2/2024, with respect to further contract and fiscal incentives to encourage the reactivation of production and drive operational efficiency in assets previously suspended due to low oil prices.

'Marginal Projects: Many oil and gas activities in development areas were suspended when deemed not economically viable. The Government's intent is to encourage the reactivation of these activities within development areas.

Legislation will enhance the oil and gas business environment, providing new guidance on oil and gas operations and processes that include streamlining of work programs.

The Government also plans to implement contract and fiscal incentives that will promote operational efficiency in mature and marginal fields.'

[upwego] 10/7/2024 10:56

Just topped up 10K had to place the order at best would not even let me nut 5k through quote & deal.

[mount teide] 10/7/2024 10:49

'Third, long-term divestment from oil and gas [whatever we think about the relative merits of this] is hurting the sector.'

Global upstream oil and gas capex is expected to grow by $24 billion this year, surpassing $600 billion for the first time in a decade. Annual investment will need to grow by another $135 billion, or 22%, to $738 billion by 2030 to ensure adequate supply.


Growing Demand to Increase Upstream Oil & Gas Investment Needs 22% by 2030 - International Energy Forum - June 2024

'Annual upstream oil and gas capital expenditures will need to rise by 22 percent by 2030 to ensure adequate supplies due to growing demand and cost inflation, according to a new report by the International Energy Forum and S&P Global Commodity Insights.

A cumulative $4.3 trillion in new investments will be needed between 2025 and 2030, according to the "Upstream Oil and Gas Investment Outlook" report published today. The growing capital expenditure (capex) needs are based on an outlook that sees demand for oil rising from 103 million barrels per day (bpd)in 2023 to nearly 110 million bpd by 2030.

"More investment in new oil and gas supply is needed to meet growing demand and maintain energy market stability, which is the foundation of global economic and social wellbeing," said Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of the IEF. "Well-supplied and stable energy markets are critical to making progress on climate, because the alternative is high prices and volatility, which undermines public support for the transition as we have seen in the past two years."

The report found that global upstream oil and gas capex is expected to grow by $24 billion this year, surpassing $600 billion for the first time in a decade. Annual investment will need to grow by another $135 billion, or 22 percent, to $738 billion by 2030 to ensure adequate supply, the report says.

Roger Diwan, Vice-President at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said that "expected production declines and future demand growth will require re-investing existing cash flows even as the transition proceeds."

More than 60 percent of the projected increase in upstream capex between now and 2030 would be focused in the Americas, according to the report, co-authored by Allyson Cutright, Senior Energy Market Analyst at the IEF, Roger Diwan, and Karim Fawaz, Director of the Energy Advisory Service at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

While the United States and Canada are expected to be the largest drivers of capex growth to 2030, Latin America plays an increasingly significant role in non-OPEC supply growth, particularly for conventional crude, with large expansions in Brazil and Guyana.

The report noted significant uncertainty around the trajectory for global oil and gas demand and the pace of the energy transition to net zero CO2 emissions.

"Base-case forecasts from consensus-leading organizations diverge by as much as 7 million bpd for 2030 and this gap widens to 27 million bpd when more ambitious climate scenarios are included," the report says.

However, increased capital expenditure in upstream oil and gas supports energy security and the energy transition, the report says.

"A just, orderly and equitable transition requires a foundation of energy security," it says. "The past two years have demonstrated the consequences of 'disorderly' transitions: price shocks, shortages, disruptions, political backlash, bitter divisions and conflict." '

[winnet] 10/7/2024 10:43

I cannot see the warrants being an issue, as they won't exercise until such times as they can generate a decent profit in a cashless exercise. When the share price is signficantly above the strike price, then I will expect to see some of them showing up.

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But surely you can see this would depress the share price above the strike price. Hence the long-term potential of the share price?

[sea7] 10/7/2024 10:31

I cannot see the warrants being an issue, as they won't exercise until such times as they can generate a decent profit in a cashless exercise. When the share price is signficantly above the strike price, then I will expect to see some of them showing up.

there are 30 million warrants at 50p valid 36 months from mid 2023. Tyrus can drip feed these in over a period of time, to bank the £15 million from them and the company can easily replace any that are unexercised, if they so wish, after the expiry date.

[ashkv] 10/7/2024 10:16

Warrants are at 50p (corrected - I had 55p) - so a massive upside prior to exercise price on Warrants!!!

I concur that a lack of sentiment for O&G and once, twice, thrice bitten market is shy in regards to JSE - Hopefully CEO redeems himself!!!

I personally am a bit taken aback that the market didn't react to Akatara being in initial stages of full operation!!!

It is a big project / and a big step in the right direction for JSE in regards to a transition hydrocarbon!!!

No serious buying but at least no serious selling - so is the bottom in?

[itsriskythat] 10/7/2024 08:33

Zero interest shown in Jadestone at present

[ashkv] 09/7/2024 17:40

Wow for the full day only a miniscule 9 trades

# Trades 9
Vol. Sold 104,696
Sold Value £32.89k
Vol. Bought 10,445
Bought Value £3.30k