Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 19/2/2019 11:03

Moving up on modest volume this morning - L2 showing just two MM's left under 40p - 6 have moved up.

Although Institutional Investors and Insiders recently increased the stock held by notifiable interests up to 69%, JSE, on the basis of the number of posts on Advfn and other investment websites, remains largely off the radar as one of AIM's best kept secrets with the retail investment community.

[fozzie] 15/2/2019 14:08

MT thank you for that . I have positions in CAML, JSE and TXP. I have watched ARS for weeks now and not bought, a mistake certainly after this weeks movement, and one i will rectify. I am aware of CKN but will have another look this weekend. Thanks again.

[mount teide] 15/2/2019 12:16

fozzie - CAML / JSE / CKN on a risk reward basis over a 3-5 year view at this point of the recovery stage of the new shipping/commodity cycle - which historically has averaged 6-9 years trough to peak.

TXP and ARS undoubtably have more upside potential but are a higher level of execution risk - however, in common with the above three companies they have an exceptionally talented management that can demonstrate an outstanding track record of success in the recovery/boom stage of the last oil and copper market business cycle - so, it would not surprise me if either outperformed the above three over a 5 year view, since the risk reward is materially greater.

[zengas] 15/2/2019 11:43

Vermilion have about 11% of their operations in Australia and where the Ensco 107 rig is currently.

152.5m shares in issue @ $24.55 ($1.30 = £1) = £18.88/share = £2.88 billion m/cap.
Net debt $2b.

300 mmboe 2P end 2017 + 210 mmboe contingent (mid case) resources.
Q3 2018 production = 96,200 boepd
2019 production guidance = 101,000 - 106,000 boepd.

Dividend yield 8.6%.
Monthly dividend 23c/share.

Paid accumulated total of $36.87 per share over last 15 years in dividends 2003-18.
Floated 1994 at 30c/share.


=====================================

JSE m/cap on 461m shares @ 38p = £175m.
Net debt circa $50m.
Reserves 45 mmboe 2P with circa 100 mmboe 2C plus a host of exploration opportunities.

Production 13k+ boepd. Infill drilling + if Ogan Komering is acquired - closer to 20k boepd next year and to be circa 30k boepd producer from existing assets within another 4 years (without any new acquisitions.).

Generating significant cash - expecting further acquisitions which in turn will lift prouction. See No1 mission statement re acquiring production.I expect this through debt/cash generation.

Management ex Talisman who have created $6b+ valuation.

December 2018 interview reference rewarding shareholders with dividend.

Would require $6.8m to pay 3% dividend against current 38p share price. (Revenue already circa $310m/yr with circa $8-$10m/month free cash flow). With further acquistions and the companys own 30,000 boepd target from 3 of the existing assets - could be capable of future $1b revenue and $100m+ dividend stream.

On a buy/hold basis at this price - could see very good long term growth trajectory in both dividends and share price once asset growth and momentum builds.

[fozzie] 15/2/2019 11:42

MT, by reading your posts on these boards i could have a good guess at your portfolio constituents. What would be your top 3 opportunities at this moment in time. You don't need to answer if that's too personal a question. I have been selling other stuff in my portfolio over the last 3 months and have built (for me) a fairly decent position here. I too have high hopes here.

[mount teide] 15/2/2019 11:32

A few of Advfn's nickel and dime traders said the same thing when i was suggesting beaten down shipbroker Clarksons was looking attractive at a share price of £0.90 at the bottom of the last shipping market cycle in 2000.

Matching my £50,000 investment then(i've averaged up 9 times over the years since) would have generated capital growth of £1.38 million, dividend payments of £410,000 and a current annual dividend of £44,000. Not too shabby for a £50k starter investment in another highly cyclical long term commodity market.

AIMHO/DYOR

[meteors] 15/2/2019 10:40

I thought I was the only one who thought that, wasn't sure if all his madness was hugely relevant to the more exp PI's or just ramblings.

They do seem to have a very suave business model which is why im surprised the share price has not been climbing at a quicker pace. Im here for the foreseeable future. And I have high hopes for the company come 9-12months down the line when proposed opportunities fall into place :)

[someuwin] 15/2/2019 08:19

Do we have any idea what the CoS is for this first infill well at Stag?

[mount teide] 15/2/2019 02:10

Some recent Oil Market Research from Natural Resource Market Specialists - Goehring & Rozencwajg

Looking Ahead in 2019: Oil Fundamentals - 02/ 14/ 2019

“Based on our models, inventories will now resume their steady draws throughout the rest of the year and prices will resume their advance.”

While the severe weakness over the past several months has been the result of short-term policy errors, it has hidden many long-term bullish underlying fundamental trends currently taking place in global oil markets, all with potentially large consequences. Now that OPEC has cut production, many of these bullish trends will start to regain importance as global oil markets slip back into deficit.

Many analysts blamed a combination of weak demand and surging shale production for the rise in inventories and price weakness. We strongly disagree with this assessment. Consider that, as of April, OPEC member countries plus Russia (so-called OPEC+) were producing 43.3 mm b/d. Using this as a baseline, OPEC+ increased production 1.4 mm b/d by November. In total over that period, we calculate 175 mm barrels were added to global oil markets. Over that same period, global inventories grew by only 25 mm barrels relative to long-term averages. Therefore, without the OPEC+ production increase, inventories would have drawn sharply by 150 mm barrels between April and November, or 725,000 b/d. Given that the market was undersupplied by 550,000 b/d in 2017, this suggests that absent OPEC’s decision to boost production, the market deficit would have actually accelerated in 2018, even accounting for the stronger-than-expected production from the US shales. We have long argued that the US shales would continue to grow, and the world oil market would need every barrel it could get. In retrospect, that seems to have been the case.

Today’s dynamics are materially different than the 2014-2015 experience. In November 2014, Saudi Arabia abandoned its role as swing producer and pumped 9.4 mm b/d. Over the next 24 months, it increased production by 1.2 mm b/d and added nearly 500 mm barrels to global oil supplies in aggregate. At the same time, global inventory levels rose by 350 mm barrels over that period (mostly in the US). In other words, in 2014-2016, 75% of Saudi Arabia’s additional production made its way into inventories, whereas today 75% of OPEC+’s increase was absorbed by the world’s oil market. What is keeping oil markets so tight this time, despite rising OPEC production? Longtime followers of our research will immediately recognize a few of the underlying fundamental forces that helped keep oil markets relatively balanced. We expect these forces will become even more severe throughout 2019 and beyond with very bullish results.

First, non-OPEC oil supply outside of the United States and Russia deteriorated materially over the past six months. In our Q2 2018 letter we explained how conventional non-OPEC oil supply was at risk of disappointing. Over the past decade, conventional non-OPEC discoveries totaled up to 110 bn barrels while consumption equaled 360 bn barrels. We have long argued that the dearth of conventional discoveries would soon result in declining non-OPEC production outside of the US and, as outlined in last quarter’s commentary, we believe this is now taking place. During Q4, the head of the IEA, Dr. Fatih Birol, stated that under-investment in conventional non-OPEC production would be the dominant force affecting global oil markets in coming years.

The one non-OPEC country currently bucking this trend is Russia. Over the last nine months, Russian oil production has increased by a material 450,000 b/d. We have traveled to Russia many times over the last 20 years, and in the past we have written in-depth on their oil production potential. We are in the process of undertaking a large research project on the Russian oil industry and will present our findings in our next quarterly letter. In the meantime, Russia has agreed to curtail production in 2019 in conjunction with the OPEC agreement made in November and so for the immediate term we do not expect Russian production to grow further.

While Russia has been a bright spot in conventional non-OPEC production, it has masked the intense deterioration in the rest of the world. Outside of Russia, we estimate that conventional non-OPEC oil supply declined by 1.0 m b/d between July and December. In particular, the North Sea, Mexico and Brazil all disappointed and we expect this to continue going forward. Although we have been commenting on the strains in conventional non-OPEC production for quite a while, these shortfalls have largely taken the market by surprise. When they first released their 2018 supply estimates in the summer of 2017, the IEA (which forms the basis for most energy analysts’ models) called for non-OPEC oil supply ex-the US and Russia to grow by 600m b/din 2018. This figure has now been revised down by 65% to 200,000 b/d but our models tell us that more revisions may be forthcoming.


Some further useful oil sector research can be found in their just released Q4/2018 Natural Resource Market Commentary

[mount teide] 15/2/2019 01:45

Brent back above $65 - oil market continues to draw comfort from Saudis Arabia's announcement this week to make a further 500,000 bopd of production cuts over and above the figure they initially committed to during the OPEC/OPEC+ Vienna Agreement, easing concerns about the global supply potentially getting out of balance.

[mount teide] 14/2/2019 17:40

Header updated with latest data for shareholdings declarable over 3%(currently total 69% of issued share capital), together with a link to the Feb 2019 Company Presentation Update.

[alamaison5] 14/2/2019 15:02

Mad volume above the bid. Are we now clear of the overhang? This appraisal going on feels like a 100% success. Therefore we can book another 1M barrel, yes?

[meteors] 14/2/2019 12:55

with approval with Nam Du, things could get exciting here!!

[meteors] 14/2/2019 12:54

the portfolio they have looks great with alot of opportunity for growth and increased rate of production :)

[zengas] 14/2/2019 12:23

Latest February presentation



1st Key strategic principle - "Acquire assets with production and/or discovered resources in the Asia Pacific region" - Possible given the ongoing cash build.

[mount teide] 14/2/2019 12:00

A 1.5 cent dividend would be equivalent today to circa 3 weeks of current cash flow.

[mount teide] 13/2/2019 17:38

At current Brent price, JSE's 2019 oil hedge and $2 SE Asian oil price premium is probably helping to generate circa $70/bbl on Montara's entire production of 10,000 bopd.

Average 2018 Montara production was 7,615 bbls/d (excluding downtime for the recent inspection and maintenance work).

On completion of the Montara deal in late September 2018, JSE received $92m of cash and oil - Brent averaged $73 from Jan to Sept.

Considering Montara built that sort of cash level($8-10 million a month) on those barrel numbers and POO; then at 10,000 bopd and an average realised oil price of circa $70, the field should be currently performing significantly ahead of that.

[meteors] 13/2/2019 15:45

@fanshaw apologies, novice here not using right terminology... I kinda was asking when the results get released of the Q4 2018 (or yeah the finals for 2018)

Just excited for when this share price will hopefully rise. There seems to be a lot of promise for the likes of spudding two new wells this year and the production rate increase they mention compared to last year. (I guess have to wait till much later in the year to see this impact the SP)

Hence why im asking what ppl expect share price to be come 6 months down the line ....

cheers!

[mount teide] 13/2/2019 14:49

It is had to take three bites to add another 32k today.

[basem1] 13/2/2019 13:40

Stock seems tight. I have just purchased 20,000 shares.

[fanshaw] 13/2/2019 13:38

Meteors

We haven't had finals yet? or have I missed them.

[meteors] 13/2/2019 13:10

anyone have predictions on share price for the second quarter results? Or will it kick off properly in Q3 ?

[mount teide] 12/2/2019 15:40

Chinese, SE Asian and Pacific Rim markets performed strongly in 2018 according to just released data from the Global Container Port Industry.

Global slowdown in 2018? Someone forgot to tell the World's leading Container ports - 95% of all finished goods at some time see the inside of a freight container.

Globally, the industry reported strong growth last year - 2.6% on a reported basis.

Incredibly, container volumes at the world's top two ports Shanghai and Singapore grew around 2 and 3 times the average global figure respectively.

China's Shanghai International Port retained its top position as the world's busiest container port for the ninth consecutive year. The port recorded 42.01 million TEU throughput in 2018, an increase of 5.0% compared to the previous year, reaching a record high.

The port's improved performance over 2017 was attributed to "the recovery in the global economy(what this means is a recovery in Asian markets since intra Asian traffic flows are now larger than trade flows of finished goods to both the US and European markets), China's increasing import and export business coupled with improving service capability and efficiency" according to port management.

Singapore, the world's second largest container port reported an astonishing 8.7% growth in container volumes to reach 36.6 million TEU last year. Senior Minister of State for Transport, Lam Pin Min, said 2018 had been a "year of uncertainty", but, "Thankfully, Maritime Singapore fared not too badly." (Something of an understatement!).

Singapore also retained it position as the world's largest ship bunkering port in 2018 with fuel sales of 49.8 million tonnes.

7 Chinese Ports made the top ten global container ports by volume throughput - Dubai was the only Port outside China/SE Asia to make the top ten at number 9 and saw volumes fall by 2.1% in 2018.

Container growth through the top Chinese ports in 2018 increased to more than 210m TEU

Container Port Traffic at the top 25 Nations: Ranked regionally:

210 million - China
170 million - SE Asia & Pacific Rim
84 million - Europe
53 million - USA and Canada
52 million - rest of the world

15 of the Worlds top 20 container ports were in China and SE Asia. Both Shanghai and Singapore increased their container volumes in 2018 by close to the total annual throughput of Felixstowe, the UK's largest container port which has a quay some 3.2 miles long. Singapore now handles 10 times more freight containers than Felixstowe - a remarkable feat considering the Country is only 1.5 times the size of the Isle of Wight.

Against this backdrop, it does not take a Phd in Applied Mathematics to work out why the 4.8 billion population of the fast growing Chinese, SE Asian and Pacific rim markets has been responsible for the entire 34 million bopd increase in global oil consumption since 1980 and, where the overwhelming majority of the future growth in energy demand is forecast to come from.

Data Source - Lloyd's List