Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[walter walcarpets] 07/3/2019 13:22

Got a few more this morning. Really like the strategy here.

[mount teide] 07/3/2019 13:20

JSE reminds me of an early stage Venture Production Ltd, a highly successful North Sea second phase O&G operator that i held that was bought out in 2009 by Centrica in a hostile takeover for circa $2 billion.

[meteors] 07/3/2019 13:19

Thanks for that homebrewruss

Yes he seems a very joyful character, kind of teddy-like. Important for creating investment opportunities and ultimately the share price :)

Such a clever Company strategy. Bullet-proof? xD

I wonder how many other companies are doing this. I expect it’s nothing new. Will be adding to my pot as and when funds become available.

I think the Vietnam deal will proppel this company so I look forward to this later in the year. Also wise to expand the portfolio into gas. Spreading risk and in a booming industry for SE Asia!

[someuwin] 07/3/2019 12:51

Yes - highly professional. They're building a fantastic company here. Makes me very confident holding a very large chunk of these in my SIPP.

I also like the sound of this...

"We're in a number of data rooms right now"

[mount teide] 07/3/2019 12:26

thank HBR - Excellent interview. Paul Blakeley comes across as a hugely impressive character.

"Our strategy is all about something we have been pursuing as a team for 20 years in the region as Talisman Energy, that is acquiring assets which are undeveloped but where the exploration risk has been removed. An undeveloped discovery, stranded for whatever reason, a producing asset that has become mature in the hands of its previous owner"

The main difference is:

'Unlike the North Sea the capability for managing second phase O&G assets in SE Asia / Pacific Rim region is very thin and therefore the competition for purchasing these assets is very thin'


"First part of our MO is to look for assets that have production and cash flow but which have very significant re-investment capabilities - while it is important to buy assets cheap, its the re-investment that is the key"

'Montara offered a whole host of re-investment opportunities like

* Reducing operating costs and improving efficiencies
* Using infill drilling to improve recovery factors and increase production
* Low risk near field exploration

which when layered on top of one another becomes material(an understatement if ever i heard one going by the results to date!)'

"Montara is one of those rare assets that delivers on all of that potential."

"Montara is as good an acquisition opportunity as i've seen in 25 years"

[homebrewruss] 07/3/2019 11:54

New CEO interview, not watched it yet myself:

[simplemilltownboy] 07/3/2019 11:38

Thanks MT odd that it shows them as sells on the summary page. Happy to hold these for a couple of years as I can see these increase in value over a longer period of time, also holding RRE and SQZ, hoping for a sustained oil price level of circa $60-70, looks like the market fundamentals support this currently with OPEC restricting production. Regards

[mount teide] 07/3/2019 11:30

SMTB - they are mostly buys.

Actual online bid and offer levels are currently 40.4p and around 40.6p.

[simplemilltownboy] 07/3/2019 11:09

Someone appears to hovering up all those sells as the price has gone up!

[mount teide] 06/3/2019 20:51

The near term development of Jadestone's Southwest Vietnam gas assets located in the undisputed coastal waters of the Gulf of Thailand could not be better timed(the development plan is targeting first gas in 2021), as Vietnam's 10% annual increase in energy consumption combined with a long standing dispute with China over the South China Sea within Vietnam’s 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), is exhausting natural resources and impacting the country’s energy security.

It is pushing Vietnam into the rapid development of highly expensive renewable energy in order to continue meeting the demands of it's fast growing economy (7.08% growth in 2018), which has performed second only to China in the region during the last decade.



Vietnam’s Energy Dilemma Is About To Become A Crisis - OilPrice.com today

'Vietnam can’t seem to get a break. The country lies just beneath China, its giant neighbour to the north, and shares many of the same socialist ideals that Beijing promulgates. However, Sino-Vietnamese relations have been a source of tension for years dating back to the colonisation of Vietnam by China centuries ago - a historical fact that the average Vietnamese citizen has never forgotten. Even after the protracted and costly war between North Vietnam and the U.S.-backed South Vietnamese government, that ended more than 40 years ago, China (which had proven a valuable ally for Hanoi during the war) turned on its smaller communist ally and invaded the country in 1979. It was a brief but bloody border war which showed Beijing that Vietnam could still hold its own.

Fast forward several decades and Hanoi is still trying to placate Beijing while at the same time rapidly improving relations with one-time adversary Washington. In fact, U.S.- Vietnamese relations, both trade and bilateral, have improved so much recently that the two sides could now arguably be called allies in the Asia-Pacific region. Of course, much of that alliance, similar in some respects to the decades-old U.S. alliance with Saudi Arabia, is born of necessity. The U.S.-Saudi alliance was berthed in the aftermath of World War 2, held together amid shared concerns during the cold war, and remains amid worries over Iranian hegemony ambitions in the Middle East. The U.S.-Vietnamese alliance is largely held together over the mutual aim of both Washington and Hanoi to keep China's economic and military ambitions in check in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in the volatile South China Sea, where Beijing claims as much as 90 percent of the troubled body of water.

However, Hanoi’s angst with Beijing isn’t just political, it also related to Vietnam's energy sector. China’s increased muscle-flexing in the region has negatively impacted Vietnam’s ability to develop its own offshore natural gas resources. Last March, according to a BBC report at the time, state-owned Petro Vietnam ordered Spanish energy firm Repsol to suspend an oil and gas project, which was in its final stages, off the country’s southeast coast within Vietnam’s, own 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The pull-out cost Repsol some $200mn in lost investment, an amount that the company has to date been unsuccessful at recouping. It was the second time in less than a year that Hanoi had bowed to Chinese pressure in its own waters. In July 2017, Hanoi also ordered Repsol to stop oil drilling operations at an adjacent location, Block 136/3, in response to what media at the time called “threats from China.” The geopolitical squabble in 2017 came just days after Repsol reportedly made a major gas discovery in the area.

Consequently, to offset both its blockage of developing its own gas resources and to help Vietnam meet its growing energy demand amid stellar economic growth, the country needs to turn to renewables. However, it’s still in the early stages of developing renewable energy sources and needs to introduce more incentive policies to attract more investment, media in the country reported last week, citing both domestic and international experts.

Hoang Quoc Vuong, Vietnam’s deputy minister of industry and trade, said that the rapid increase in energy demand and consumption of around 10 percent per year is having negative impacts on the environment, exhausting natural resources and also impacting the country’s energy security. Nonetheless, he reasoned, Vietnam’s clean energy development still has limitations, including unstable supply, difficulty in energy transmission and high costs. He added that the ministry was studying solutions to efficiently develop renewable energy towards a low-carbon economy.

For more than a decade, Vietnam’s economic growth has been second only to China as the country continues to develop and modernize. According to a report by the country’s Central Economic Commission, Vietnam’s economic growth stood at 7.08 percent last year. Vietnam ranks second among Southeast Asian countries with a total power system capacity of nearly 50,000 MW and is ranked 23rd on a global scale.

However, Vuong added that it’s necessary for Vietnam to develop a structure of energy supply sources, including hydroelectric, thermoelectric and renewables. Promoting an energy transition towards a low-carbon economy was critical, he said. By the end of last year, total hydropower capacity in the country of more than 90 million reached 22,000 MW, while solar capacity and wind power capacity is estimated to reach 1,000 MW and 1,500 MW, respectively. Vuong added that the ministry was also receiving a number of proposals to develop wind and solar power projects in the country.

However, hurdles remain to achieve those goals. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently said that Vietnam is in the early stages of developing renewable energy, thus the government needed to develop appropriate mechanisms to reduce risks for investors in renewable energy development. Pham Huong Giang, deputy head of the Renewable Energy Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said the ministry was studying mechanisms to promote investment in developing renewable energy.'

[homebrewruss] 06/3/2019 16:50

Jadestone are presenting in London on Tuesday:

[fardels bear] 06/3/2019 16:33

41.6p are buys at the end, not sells.

[mount teide] 06/3/2019 16:31

Jadestone Energy predicts significant production uplift in 2019 - Proactive today


'Australia- focused oil group Jadestone Energy PLC (LON:JSE) expects output will double this year as production from its two fields offshore Australia ramps up.

Average production will be between 13,500-15,500 barrels per day, said the AIM and Australia-listed group, compared to an average 7,615 barrels in 2018.

Production was running higher than that forecast in February due to flush production from a restart at Montara in the Timor Sea.

Over the coming year, Jadestone has in-fill wells planned at Montara and Stag, its other producing asset offshore Australia.

This new well at Stag will be the first on the field in six years and will add material production and significantly reduce unit operating costs, said the statement.

Capital and significant offshore spending will be in a range of US$116-131mln.

Jadestone also expects to get the go-ahead for the Nam Du and U Minh gas fields offshore Vietnam.

Paul Blakeley, Jadestone’s chief executive, said "We are forecasting completion of FEED, gas sales agreement negotiations, and major contract tendering, leading to formal FID, all within the year.

"Collectively, the catalysts we are forecasting for 2019 put us well on our way toward achieving our longer-term goal of growing to a circa 30,000 boe/d producer by 2023, with our existing asset base." '

[fardels bear] 06/3/2019 16:30

OK, I'm in..

[fardels bear] 06/3/2019 15:30

Nothing I've read so far.

[someuwin] 06/3/2019 15:19

"2-3 years and on $500m+ revenue at quoted oil/gas prices could be paying 10p+/share."

That would mean peeps buying now would be getting an annual divi of 25% of their current investment!

PLUS the value of that investment having multiplied in value a few times too.

What's not to like?

[someuwin] 06/3/2019 14:25

Malcy

"Jadestone Energy

Jadestone has given the market some guidance this morning and expect 13,500-15,500 b/d this year with a longer term forecast of 30,000 b/d by 2023. Average unit production costs are $21-24 and the company expects capex this year to be in the range $116-131m. With operatorship of Montara expected in Q2 2019 the company is progressing faster than I had imagined although management is impressive and highly experienced.

They say that they are making ‘good progress’ in Vietnam and expect sanction of the project this year. So much has changed with this company in the last year it is hard to keep up but the acquisition was an absolute peach and already paying out in spades, this company is without doubt going places."

[zengas] 06/3/2019 13:43

$320m+ revenue at assumed oil prices.

Every $6m if used as a dividend = 1p/share.

2-3 years and on $500m+ revenue at quoted oil/gas prices could be paying 10p+/share.

I'm expecting to see at some point a significant sized acquisition increasing revenue.

Certainly possible to see a future $1b of annual revenue.

[mount teide] 06/3/2019 12:00

Some analysis/thoughts of today's update and new presentation:

Feb production 15,369 bopd - Montara Feb production; 13,181 bopd

At $65.5 current Brent price, $2.00 regional premium and, 5,500 bopd of circa $72 hedge, this suggests the Montara field is currently generating US$28.8 million per month of gross revenue and using even the previously advised $22/bbl of operating expenses (at 10,000 bopd of production), an astonishing circa US$19.6 million of monthly cash flow with ongoing asset optimisation expected to deliver further cost reductions.

Ogan Komering - 'Jadestone anticipates re-engagement with Pertamina on negotiations to re-enter the PSC for up to a 40% working interest following the general elections in April.' With an assumed re-entry date of 01 October 2019, suggests a realistic prospect of a deal announcement during Q2/Q3.

'Potential for additional value accretive regional M&A in 2019' - suggests one of the two prospects that were previously advised as having reached the latter stages of evaluation and negotiation has significant potential and a deal could be concluded this year.

Full year operating expenses in the range of $21-$24/bbl is an outstanding achievement as when Jadestone acquired Stag and Montara the average operating expenses were circa $75/bbl and circa $50/bbl respectively.

Montara to add a further 6,200 bopd of production via the Q2 light well intervention(3,200 bopd June-Dec 2019), and 3,000 bopd in 2000 via H6 infill well in Q4/2019(less than 12 month payback time at $65 oil).

Skua 11 Well intervention - opening up the previously shut-in heel of the well delivers accelerated Skua production in 2019 and higher overall field recovery, delaying the need for the Skua-12 infill well, saving $38m of 2019 capex; enabling a revised northeast location for optimal well placement in the future to maximise recovery.

Considering the progress made to date at Montara, management's highly material 2019 programme to deliver further production optimisation and opex reduction, continues to highlight how poorly the previous owners managed the asset.

Stag Infill well to spud next week - with a 34 day drill time - we should have news by mid April. Highly significant upside potential to further lower opex through production development - a 1,500 bopd production increase lowers opex by 50% from $30/bbl to $20/bbl.

Commitment to look at the introduction of a cash dividend by Sep 2019 strongly validates the progress made during the last 12 months.

[mount teide] 06/3/2019 10:07

Spangle - in the November presentation of the Q3/2018 Results, the market was notified of an uptime target for Montara in 2019 of 84%, a 17% increase over the 72% performance previously achieved. The 2020/21 target was advised as 92%.

[mount teide] 06/3/2019 09:12

The target is 30,000 boepd by 2023 through self financed organic growth.

[homebrewruss] 06/3/2019 09:12

Spangle, could that be due to the subsea umbilical replacement happening this year (page 9 of the pdf)?