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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jadestone Energy Plc | LSE:JSE | London | Ordinary Share | GB00BLR71299 | ORD GBP0.001 |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.50 | 5.94% | 26.75 | 26.00 | 27.50 | 27.25 | 24.90 | 25.00 | 676,922 | 08:49:25 |
Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs | 323.28M | -91.27M | -0.1688 | -1.61 | 136.56M |
Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
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19/3/2019 13:15 | Jadestone's 2019 guidance at an average oil price of $65/bbl indicates they will generate sufficient cash to pay the: * Capital and other major offshore spending of US$116-131 million * and still have $100 million of free cash left over According to my calculator this means assuming a mid range 14,500 bopd average for 2019, with 5,500 bopd of production hedged at $72/bbl; to generate the amount of cash Jadestone is guiding for 2019 at an average oil price of $65/bbl, MEANS THE OTHER 9,000 bopd OF MONTARA AND STAG PRODUCTION WOULD ONLY NEED A AVERAGE BRENT PRICE FOR 2019 OF $57/bbl BEFORE THE REGIONAL PREMIUM OF $2-$2.5/BBL. AIMHO/DYOR | mount teide | |
19/3/2019 12:57 | ...Could mean a nice dividend announcement in September. | someuwin | |
19/3/2019 12:48 | Brent up to $68.18 - a four month high. Jadestone after adjustment for the circa $2.5/bbl regional premium to Brent will currently be generating circa $76.00/bbl($73.49 + $2.50) for its 5,500 bbs of hedged Montara production and circa $70.68/bbl for the other circa 7,600 bbls and Stag's production. By my calculator at the current circa 15,369 bopd production, this is generating: Gross Revenue of: $34.5 million per month Cash Flow (at a combined upper end of the range $24/bbl op expenses) of: $23.2 million / month So it takes just circa 3.5 times the current monthly cash flow to generate the $82 million net purchase price of the Montara Field( and its FPSO which cost $108 million and has another circa 14 years of operational life before its next dry docking, and greater storage capacity than Premier's BW Catcher FPSO without the $210 million a year, ten year contract charter fee). With each passing day Montara looks less like the O&G sector deal of the decade and more like Paul Blakeley's deal of the last 25 years. | mount teide | |
19/3/2019 11:09 | “Perfect Storm” Drives Oil Prices Higher - Oilprice .com 'Oil prices have already hit four-month highs, forcing a range of analysts to overhaul their expectations for this year. “The latest Brent rally has brought prices to our peak forecast of $67.5/bbl, three months early,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. The investment bank said that “resilient demand growth” and supply outages could push prices up to $70 per barrel in the near future. It’s a perfect storm: “supply loses are exceeding our expectations, demand growth is beating low consensus expectations with technicals supportive and net long positioning still depressed,” the bank said. The outages in Venezuela could swamp the rebound in supply from Libya, Goldman noted. But the real surprise has been demand. At the end of 2018 and the start of this year, oil prices hit a bottom and concerns about global economic stability dominated the narrative. But, for now at least, demand has been solid. In January, demand grew by 1.55 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year. “Gasoline in particular is surprising to the upside, helped by low prices, confirming our view that the weakness in cracks at the turn of the year was supply driven,” Goldman noted. “This comforts us in our above consensus 1.45 mb/d [year-on-year] demand growth forecast.” Demand in China is growing at a stronger rate than expected, while other emerging markets are set to shake off a rough 2018 that saw a strong dollar, rising interest rates and high oil prices. Meanwhile, other analysts are also similarly bullish. “As risky assets focused on macro concerns, oil markets have largely overlooked supply-side tightness in 1Q19 that has helped global oil markets to rebalance since the end of 2018,” JPMorgan Chase said in a report. “With a potential for a US-China trade talk resolution emerging, oil prices should finally break out of the narrow trading range and should be supported in the very near-term due to policy-driven supply-side tightness.” A supply deficit could become rather significant, the bank said, with total oil products demand growth at 1.03 mb/d against supply growth of only 0.3mbd. The second quarter is particularly tight. “As OPEC+ cuts begin to bite and non-OPEC supply tightens in 1H19, due to Canadian curtailments, a temporary US production growth slowdown, and maintenance in some of the key global oil fields (Kashagan particularly), we expect 2Q19 to have a theoretical tightness of over 1.2mbd in global balances.” A supply deficit of 1.2 mb/d is rather notable given the roughly 1.5 mb/d surplus in the fourth quarter of last year, the bank said. Both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan see the supply deficit fading in the second half of the year unless OPEC+ continues to over-comply with the production cuts. U.S. shale could rebound from the current lull, while the fate of OPEC+ compliance is up in the air. “Hence, we think OPEC+ cuts will need to be extended not just to the end of 2019 but also into 2020 if they want to avoid another oil price crash,” JPMorgan wrote. Of course, there is no shortage of uncertainty to these – or any other – price scenarios. In particular, the Trump administration will have a lot of influence over what unfolds this year in the oil market. Trump has helped exacerbate the crisis in Venezuela, where the output declines had somewhat stabilized late last year. Venezuela’s production fell by 142,000 bpd in February, while the losses this month have the potential to be even worse. The U.S. is also weighing the expiration of sanctions waivers on Iran, and the tight oil market could force Trump to extend some of them. The Department of Energy could also release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, while the U.S. Congress is working on NOPEC legislation, which could threaten OPEC coordination. Moreover, it is unclear how OPEC+ might respond to any of those actions. For instance, Saudi Arabia could ramp up supply to crash prices in response to NOPEC being signed into law. Or, they could continue to over-comply with production cuts after making the mistake of abandoning them too early last year. The permutations are endless, so take each price forecast with a grain of salt.' | mount teide | |
18/3/2019 12:50 | Links to the Jadestone CEO's London South East Investor Evening Presentation/Q&A and recent Proactive interview are now in the header for easy reference. | mount teide | |
18/3/2019 12:28 | L2: 49.8p v 50.0p FWIW - using a few dummy trades - currently getting the full 50.0p offer price to SELL! | mount teide | |
18/3/2019 08:21 | Just got around to watching the City Index presentation by PB from March 12th. I have watched hundreds of these things over the years and I liked what I saw. The phrase quietly confident comes to mind with Paul and his team. Right team right time right location. Stag profits pay for everything else plus money left over. Very positive presentation and great opportunity for us here in this off the radar company. Thanks to all the posters over the last week or so and a big thanks to MT who ploughed a loan files here for a long time and highlighted the opportunity. | fozzie | |
17/3/2019 22:13 | Montara has 2c resources according to the Admission Document including: close to a half a trillion cubic feet of Nat Gas. Some further Admission Document information: Montara Field: The limited number of qualified offshore operators in Australia looking to deploy second phase specialisation, and Jadestone’s recently proven ability to obtain regulatory approvals, in particular approval as operator culminating in the transfer of operatorship of Stag in July 2017, proved a significant competitive advantage when engaging with the seller. (This together with the Jadestone teams long regional experience and industry contacts should place them as serious contenders for future opportunities - the NOC's and IOC's are likely to consider only companies with the highest operational/safety standards when selling down their regional assets). The acquisition price represents a 32% discount to the NPV10 of the 1P reserves as estimated by ERCE; a 59 per cent discount to the NPV10 of the 2P reserves and a 75 per cent discount to the NPV10 of the 3P reserves. Free Cash Flow pay back of the acquisition price (before adjustment and contingent consideration) is estimated to be two years based on the assumptions used by ERCE. (If they deliver on 2019 guidance - it will blow the 2yr timetable out the water by cutting the payback time in half!) 12% increase in uptime and circa 25 per cent decrease in operating costs at Montara Assets targeted within 12 months of assuming operatorship. Jadestone management estimate that this will increase annual production by circa 1.7 mbbls/d in 2019. The successful completion of an additional producing well, Montara H5-ST2, in October 2017 increased production at the Montara Assets by 3.5 mbbl/d. The Company plans to drill two in-fill wells targeting identified 2P reserves of 3.5 MMbbl. These wells are included in ERCE’s reserves case for the Montara Assets. A further three in-fill targets, not included in ERCE’s reserves case, have been identified by Jadestone management targeting 5.3 MMbbl. The intention is to drill these in-fill targets as part of a 2020 or 2021 work programme. The Company has also identified numerous operational improvements on the production facilities to increase efficiency. Reflecting on the savings obtained at Stag to date, the Company is confident of its ability to deliver significant additional value creation at the Montara Assets following a successful transition period and subject to the required investment by the Company. Stag Field - Jadestone received notification, on 30 April 2018, of the renewal of the Stag production licence for a further 21 years. (This provides the Company with the opportunity to further develop and invest in the field, to grow future oil production and deliver additional operational efficiency initiatives.) | mount teide | |
17/3/2019 13:03 | cro - 'Also annoyed I didn’t fjnd JSE in the 30s as I see it as a £1B Mcap company in a few years.' If the management create a £1bn company over the next 4 years - whether buying at 35p, 45p, 55p of 65p is likely to make little difference to the overall return. Its like getting in on the 3rd or 4th floor of a 42 storey office block under construction Blakeley and his team developed Talisman's SE Asia business unit into a $6bn company in less than 10 years - this was the primary reason he was approached by our two high performing US activist hedge fund shareholders to run Jadestone. That he has since brought over most of his Talisman team together with a number of other highly regarded individuals from within the sector, provides the best possible foundation with which to replicate Talisman's performance with Jadestone. Add to that, for downside investment protection, the market circumstances are better than when they ran Talisman, since the SE Asia / Pacific Rim / North Australia oil and gas basins are seeing the US majors and NOC's retrenching with increased momentum as a result of 68% of regional production now coming from mid-life and mature fields. Blakeley reckons there is a huge opportunity for smaller second phase operators, that currently are thin on the ground in the region, to grow quickly through a combination of organic growth and the selective purchase of and re-investment in mid/late stage high quality regional assets. With the managements track record in the region and before that in the North Sea - it would take a brave man to bet against them delivering a similar performance with Jadestone, given the strong demand and premium prices paid for energy in the region, early years of the recovery stage of the market cycle, and number and quality of mid life and mature assets currently in the hands of retrenching International and National oil companies. AIMHO/DYOR | mount teide | |
17/3/2019 10:48 | They are 815p now and may be a lot hight upon readmission following Marathon deal. | fardels bear | |
16/3/2019 21:54 | I was first in RRE at £1.25 £18m Mcap and kicked myself for not just holding and adding. I hold a few at £6 now . Also annoyed I didn't fjnd JSE in the 30s as I see it as a £1B Mcap company in a few years.Another with a similar Modus Operandi is DGOC which I hold for the 10% dividend and growth . Junior ISA material for my kids . 71000 boepd . All reserves proved, producing, 450m barrels or so - EV about £1B comprising Mcap £650m and debt of £350. | croasdalelfc | |
16/3/2019 14:52 | 2018 Container Port Traffic(TEU) at the top 25 Nations: Ranked regionally: 218 million - China 170 million - SE Asia & Pacific Rim 84 million - Europe 53 million - USA and Canada 52 million - Rest of the world Against this backdrop, it does not take a Phd in Applied Mathematics to work out why the 4.8 billion population of the fast growing Chinese, SE Asian and Pacific rim markets has been responsible for the entire 34 million bopd increase in global oil consumption since 1980 and, where the overwhelming majority of the future growth in energy and commodity demand is forecast to come from over the next decade. China alone already consumes more than 50% of the entire global production of copper and the region is expected to consume over 75% of global nat gas production by 2030. Data Source - Lloyd's List | mount teide | |
16/3/2019 14:26 | As mentioned previously, the overwhelming majority of my equity investments are now in the Shipping, Oil & Gas and Industrial metal sectors. Almost without exception these sectors generate revenue in US$ and have their costs in either US$ or weak currencies, and being mostly London listed report in GBP. It is not an investment strategy designed with Brexit in mind - it long pre-dates it - it's MO is the long term shipping/commodity market cycle, which bottomed after a 7/8 year decline/recession stage in H1/2016 that was longer and deeper than any previous cycle in living memory. If previous market cycles going back 70 years are a reliable guide we should see the current recovery/boom stage of this new cycle peak around 2024/25. Following chart compares the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(20 major commodities with a very high oil weighting) v S&P500 over nearly 50 years. The hugely cyclical nature of the GSCI Commodity chart closely mirrors the Baltic Dry Index Shipping Chart over a similar period. Objective assessment of the current market fundamentals (increasingly supported by the consensus view of market analysts after 18 months of most forecasting further armageddon for the sector), suggests that although the joined at the hip shipping/O&G/Ind After a decade of very low investment following the financial crisis many Western Nations such as the USA are now actively involved in implementing huge capital expenditure programs to rebuild their crumbling infrastructure, while high population Nations like India and much of SE Asia and most of the fast growing African and South American emerging Nation economies are implementing and accelerating infrastructure and industrialisation development programmes similar to China. While China's spectacular growth may have softened from 10% to 6.5% over the last decade: it should not be forgotten that China's 6.5% growth today of its now more than twice the size economy, will generate considerably more demand for commodities in tonnage terms than the 10% growth at the last commodity market peak in circa 2008-2010. The fast growing economies of China, SE Asia and India's continuing strong demand for oil and gas together with a rapidly increasing demand for industrial metals from the materially important renewable energy and global electric vehicle sectors is forecast to strongly underpin demand over the decade ahead, and long after this latest commodity cycle peaks. As a result of low barriers to entry, the commodity and shipping markets have historically charted a remarkably reliable 15-20 year boom and bust life cycle over the last 70 years - as a consequence, investors only get 2 or 3 small windows of opportunity in an average lifetime to time an investment in the sector perfectly. With the shipping, zinc, copper and oil markets bottoming in 2016 after more than half decade falls of 98%, 66%, 56% and 76% respectively, this current early stage cyclical recovery phase still has a long way to run for equities since, as in the early years of previous recovery stages it took 2-3 years of a recovery in the pricing of commodities and shipping before the associated equities caught a bid and took off. Trump's high oil prices are simply not supported by the facts: Brent averaged $95 between 2008 and 2016 and $82 between 2008 and 2018, so today's $65 is still well below the level oil averaged over most of the last decade! Brent's 2008 inflation adjusted all time high price is $179. Any who may fear a possible wider market slowdown/recession over the next few years negatively impacting the commodities sector, should check out the performance of oil and industrial metals during the last sector recovery stage of 2000-2008, which followed a 7 year commodity market recession during which the wider markets boomed. The FTSE 100 peaked in 2000 at circa 7,000 (nearly zero nominal growth in two decades) and by 2002 had halved in value, and was still in correction territory more than 20% down by 2006. The pricing performance of copper and oil during 2000-2006 was: +171% - Brent +498% - Copper So much for wider market recessions negatively impacting investment starved commodity markets in/close to deficit with Swiss watch reliable 40 year average 2.5% annual growth. AIMHO/DYOR | mount teide | |
16/3/2019 09:58 | Spangle - 'but often it's because they are frankly underestimated in the first place.' You would think with decades of experience at operating in the North Sea, the sector will have gained sufficient first hand knowledge to accurately budget development projects. Or is it more a case of some project teams trying to make proposed projects(in a high development and operating cost environment) look as attractive as possible with regard to total cost and build time to get them authorised? Was surprised when BW Offshore/ Ithaca elected to convert FPSO BW Athena in a middle east yard/Dubai - while Singapore, South Korea and Japan may be marginally more expensive(circa 10%), they have a well earned and enviable reputation for carrying out highly specialised FPSO conversions and LNG new builds on time and budget. I see the Qatar government is responding to Australia's effort to usurp them as the World's largest LNG export Nation by announcing a Plan to order 60 more liquefied natural gas carriers from mainly South Korean yards at circa $300m each, to bring their fleet up to 110 vessels. The vessels are expected to have main engines running on the cargo(LNG boil off), in order to get around the implementation of the global 2020 sulphur cap. Interesting to see the wind and sea state forecast for the next 14 days for the Timor Sea where Montara is located - Force 1 to 3, with an average wave height of 1 foot - and average daily temp of 30 centegrade. Sea state and weather conditions the North Sea oil service industry can only dream about. | mount teide | |
15/3/2019 23:59 | MT, ref Ithaca and "Most projects seem to come in late and over budget." To be honest, I emailed JT Cod when they put out the schedule for the FPSO conversion to tell him that this was brutally optimistic. So it proved to be. I did well out of IAE, but when you say that projects come in late and expensive, part of it might be that they have been mismanaged, but often it's because they are frankly underestimated in the first place. I don't think JSE are under the same pressure to overdeliver, but I noticed that Vietnam sanction has effectively slipped a quarter since IPO presentations | spangle93 | |
15/3/2019 22:22 | Yes, their reputation as mariners is hard earned and well deserved - that they managed to navigate their way across the Atlantic in open longboats without access to modern navigation equipment centuries before Columbus discovered America is remarkable. | mount teide | |
15/3/2019 21:48 | Well done the Vikings then. | fardels bear | |
15/3/2019 21:45 | Good photo someuwin - you could count on the fingers of one hand the number of days a year you would see the sea state like that 150 miles out into the Northern North Sea! When i managed a ro-ro freight ferry service between Finland and the UK, it often took between 3 and 7 days to do the North Sea crossing from south of Oslo, Norway to Dundee such were the atrocious sea and weather conditions commonly encountered between September and May - its a sea passage that in relatively calm weather should have been achievable in 24hrs. | mount teide | |
15/3/2019 21:27 | Thanks MT, RRE is well worth a look and is supposedly designed to prosper in a low oil price environment. I'd be interested to hear what you think about it. I agree with all the points you have made on JSE. It is very well positioned and I really like what the management have done to date. I have a decent sized position now but will look to add on any dips. I'm also involved with HUR and know how much they have spent on their FPSO in the last year which makes the JSE Montara deal seem all the more remarkable. | homebrewruss | |
15/3/2019 20:59 | That is a quite remarkable deal if the floater is included at that price. | fardels bear | |
15/3/2019 20:45 | FPSO Montara Venture... | someuwin |
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