Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[buffythebuffoon] 20/3/2019 13:15

If I am backing the right men, then they can return more per pound invested than I can.

I don’t mind buybacks, and again, they will be earnings enhancing in the right hands, but I abhor CEOs who do this to trigger option benefits.

Buffy

[fardels bear] 20/3/2019 12:00

Added another 20K. Seems good to me.

[someuwin] 20/3/2019 11:52

Coming soon...

* Stag infill drill

* Montara well interventions x 3

* April 23, 2019 Results to December 31, 2018

* April 30, 2019 Stifel Discovery Conference, New York

* May, 2019 Results to March 31, 2019

[cashandcard] 20/3/2019 11:48

Mount Tiede,

Precisely, even a 3-3.5% yield will attract a new shareholders base and keep them longterm with plenty of cash to fund acquisitions beyond that. Divi would be my preferred route then acquisitions and finally buybacks a distant third.


Cash

[mount teide] 20/3/2019 11:24

Stag Field: The two anchor handling/towage vessels left the Ensco 107 yesterday - suggesting a well spud announcement should be imminent. With an expected 34 day drill time, the results should be out before the end of April.

[fardels bear] 19/3/2019 17:35

Depends whether the share price rise slows down.

[mount teide] 19/3/2019 15:53

SMTB - on Blakeley's 2019 projections - a 4.5% yield(2.2p) would cost $13.6m, leaving $86.4m to fund acquisitions - so it would be comfortably doable.

[cashandcard] 19/3/2019 15:41

I would prefer a divi to shareholders than merely ploughing it back into acquisitions alone.


Cash

[meteors] 19/3/2019 15:39

I was expecting an RNS on the infill well. Any ideas ?

[simplemilltownboy] 19/3/2019 15:29

MT to get more IIs on board I would hope for 4-5% divi to give the market confidence of future earning, this would also give the share price a welcome boost, if your estimates are correct this would be affordable and leave fire power for other acquisitions. Fingers crossed

[mount teide] 19/3/2019 15:02

Just 9% of the projected $100 million of free cash left over would pay a circa 1.5p dividend / 3% yield.

[fardels bear] 19/3/2019 13:39

Wot? No div?

[mount teide] 19/3/2019 13:15

Jadestone's 2019 guidance at an average oil price of $65/bbl indicates they will generate sufficient cash to pay the:

* Capital and other major offshore spending of US$116-131 million

* and still have $100 million of free cash left over

According to my calculator this means assuming a mid range 14,500 bopd average for 2019, with 5,500 bopd of production hedged at $72/bbl; to generate the amount of cash Jadestone is guiding for 2019 at an average oil price of $65/bbl, MEANS THE OTHER 9,000 bopd OF MONTARA AND STAG PRODUCTION WOULD ONLY NEED A AVERAGE BRENT PRICE FOR 2019 OF $57/bbl BEFORE THE REGIONAL PREMIUM OF $2-$2.5/BBL.

AIMHO/DYOR

[someuwin] 19/3/2019 12:57

...Could mean a nice dividend announcement in September.

[mount teide] 19/3/2019 12:48

Brent up to $68.18 - a four month high.

Jadestone after adjustment for the circa $2.5/bbl regional premium to Brent will currently be generating circa $76.00/bbl($73.49 + $2.50) for its 5,500 bbs of hedged Montara production and circa $70.68/bbl for the other circa 7,600 bbls and Stag's production.

By my calculator at the current circa 15,369 bopd production, this is generating:

Gross Revenue of: $34.5 million per month

Cash Flow (at a combined upper end of the range $24/bbl op expenses) of: $23.2 million / month

So it takes just circa 3.5 times the current monthly cash flow to generate the $82 million net purchase price of the Montara Field( and its FPSO which cost $108 million and has another circa 14 years of operational life before its next dry docking, and greater storage capacity than Premier's BW Catcher FPSO without the $210 million a year, ten year contract charter fee).

With each passing day Montara looks less like the O&G sector deal of the decade and more like Paul Blakeley's deal of the last 25 years.

[mount teide] 19/3/2019 11:09

“Perfect Storm” Drives Oil Prices Higher - Oilprice .com

'Oil prices have already hit four-month highs, forcing a range of analysts to overhaul their expectations for this year.

“The latest Brent rally has brought prices to our peak forecast of $67.5/bbl, three months early,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. The investment bank said that “resilient demand growth” and supply outages could push prices up to $70 per barrel in the near future. It’s a perfect storm: “supply loses are exceeding our expectations, demand growth is beating low consensus expectations with technicals supportive and net long positioning still depressed,” the bank said.

The outages in Venezuela could swamp the rebound in supply from Libya, Goldman noted. But the real surprise has been demand. At the end of 2018 and the start of this year, oil prices hit a bottom and concerns about global economic stability dominated the narrative. But, for now at least, demand has been solid. In January, demand grew by 1.55 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year. “Gasoline in particular is surprising to the upside, helped by low prices, confirming our view that the weakness in cracks at the turn of the year was supply driven,” Goldman noted. “This comforts us in our above consensus 1.45 mb/d [year-on-year] demand growth forecast.”

Demand in China is growing at a stronger rate than expected, while other emerging markets are set to shake off a rough 2018 that saw a strong dollar, rising interest rates and high oil prices.

Meanwhile, other analysts are also similarly bullish. “As risky assets focused on macro concerns, oil markets have largely overlooked supply-side tightness in 1Q19 that has helped global oil markets to rebalance since the end of 2018,” JPMorgan Chase said in a report. “With a potential for a US-China trade talk resolution emerging, oil prices should finally break out of the narrow trading range and should be supported in the very near-term due to policy-driven supply-side tightness.”

A supply deficit could become rather significant, the bank said, with total oil products demand growth at 1.03 mb/d against supply growth of only 0.3mbd. The second quarter is particularly tight. “As OPEC+ cuts begin to bite and non-OPEC supply tightens in 1H19, due to Canadian curtailments, a temporary US production growth slowdown, and maintenance in some of the key global oil fields (Kashagan particularly), we expect 2Q19 to have a theoretical tightness of over 1.2mbd in global balances.” A supply deficit of 1.2 mb/d is rather notable given the roughly 1.5 mb/d surplus in the fourth quarter of last year, the bank said.

Both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan see the supply deficit fading in the second half of the year unless OPEC+ continues to over-comply with the production cuts. U.S. shale could rebound from the current lull, while the fate of OPEC+ compliance is up in the air. “Hence, we think OPEC+ cuts will need to be extended not just to the end of 2019 but also into 2020 if they want to avoid another oil price crash,” JPMorgan wrote.

Of course, there is no shortage of uncertainty to these – or any other – price scenarios. In particular, the Trump administration will have a lot of influence over what unfolds this year in the oil market. Trump has helped exacerbate the crisis in Venezuela, where the output declines had somewhat stabilized late last year. Venezuela’s production fell by 142,000 bpd in February, while the losses this month have the potential to be even worse.

The U.S. is also weighing the expiration of sanctions waivers on Iran, and the tight oil market could force Trump to extend some of them. The Department of Energy could also release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, while the U.S. Congress is working on NOPEC legislation, which could threaten OPEC coordination. Moreover, it is unclear how OPEC+ might respond to any of those actions. For instance, Saudi Arabia could ramp up supply to crash prices in response to NOPEC being signed into law. Or, they could continue to over-comply with production cuts after making the mistake of abandoning them too early last year. The permutations are endless, so take each price forecast with a grain of salt.'

[mount teide] 18/3/2019 12:50

Links to the Jadestone CEO's London South East Investor Evening Presentation/Q&A and recent Proactive interview are now in the header for easy reference.

[mount teide] 18/3/2019 12:28

L2: 49.8p v 50.0p

FWIW - using a few dummy trades - currently getting the full 50.0p offer price to SELL!

[fozzie] 18/3/2019 08:21

Just got around to watching the City Index presentation by PB from March 12th. I have watched hundreds of these things over the years and I liked what I saw. The phrase quietly confident comes to mind with Paul and his team. Right team right time right location. Stag profits pay for everything else plus money left over. Very positive presentation and great opportunity for us here in this off the radar company. Thanks to all the posters over the last week or so and a big thanks to MT who ploughed a loan files here for a long time and highlighted the opportunity.