Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fozzie] 11/3/2019 12:56

I would be delighted if someone could get along and report back for us ;o) i am at the other end of the country, as usual.

[someuwin] 11/3/2019 12:23

Still can't buy many.

[meteors] 11/3/2019 10:31

not quite 40mill then :P

[meteors] 11/3/2019 09:54

if I wasn't heading on a mini travel i'd invest more ;)

coincidentally heading to Vietnam HAHA!!! could pop in and say hello to the ppl they have their currently in Saigon xD

[homebrewruss] 11/3/2019 09:51

Meteors you may be right, perhaps needs the dividend to get things really moving but chart looks decent and we might see some interest from the LSE presentation.

Plus we could get some further acquisition news at any point.
A good time to accumulate while the price is at these levels imo.

[meteors] 11/3/2019 09:45

Think we will have to wait till Q3/Q4 for significant change in share price However this sounds very pleasing to the ear!!

“Following our acquisition of the Montara asset, offshore Australia, we have tripled production, all of it high quality premium-priced oil from offshore Australia, and are making good progress on a significant development project in Vietnam, which we expect to sanction this year.

“At the same time, we have changed the character of the company's finances, such that we are well-positioned to deploy significant cash generated from operations to pursuing attractive reinvestment opportunities, while comfortably servicing our debt obligations and further strengthening our balance sheet.”

publication available on sharecast.com

[fardels bear] 11/3/2019 09:27

They don't seem in a hurry.

[someuwin] 11/3/2019 09:19

It means they'll have to move the price up if buying pressure persists.

[meteors] 11/3/2019 08:46

just tried, odd. How come ? Hedge Funds buying up 40mills worth? xD

[someuwin] 11/3/2019 08:30

No online buy quote available.

[spangle93] 10/3/2019 14:19

ZENGAS - ref Crux - the key phrase is "minimal processing and utility systems"

I can't say a lot more here, but my personal view is that it has limited relevance to Montara in the foreseeable future

[croasdalelfc] 10/3/2019 11:40

Ensco 107 not moved yet

[croasdalelfc] 10/3/2019 11:18

Mount Teide - thanks for your thoughtful , insightful posts - this is one of the better BBS on Advfn

[mount teide] 10/3/2019 11:15

Montara Field:

Were Brent to average $65(below current consensus forecasts) during 2019 this should see JSE generate an average of circa $70.5/bbl for its forecast Montara production after taking into consideration the current regional price premium to Brent and 5,500 bopd of oil price hedging at an average 2019 price of circa $72/bbl($73.49/Q1 2019)

At an 84% field uptime target and forecast operating expenses of $20/bbl, this equates to Montara field annual production and cash flow estimates of:

@ 11,000 bopd - 3.37 million bbls / $170.3m c/f

@ 12,000 bopd - 3.68 million bbls / $185.7m c/f

@ 13,000 bopd - 3.98 million bbls / $201.0m c/f

At the current level of production (13,181 bopd) the Montara Field is presently producing at circa $20/bbl operating expenses, cash flow of $20.4 million/month.

Some 5 months after completing the acquisition of the Montara field and FPSO for a net cost of $82 million - the net purchase price is now equivalent to circa 4 months of current cash flow.

Not difficult to understand why Paul Blakeley said in a recent interview "Montara is as good an acquisition opportunity as i've seen in 25 years".

When JSE initiated a serious interest in Montara as a potential acquisition target in H2/2017(Brent averaged circa $55), while Montara had $50+/bbl field operating expenses; such was the scale of the extremely poor asset operating performance by the previous owners.

Including the astonishing revelation considering the history of the field, that they'd operated the FPSO out of CLASS for over 8 months due to a failure to carry out a large backlog of essential planned and breakdown maintenance. JSE's small team who joined the FPSO last summer in the run-up to the acquisition completion date, had the work carried out(all at the previous owners expense) and secured the re-instatement of CLASS(a prerequisite to securing and maintaining insurance cover) inside 2 months.

[zengas] 10/3/2019 10:33

Not in the very latest March presentation update, but in the February JSE presentation JSE shows the CRUX field approx 25km from Montara (page 8).

The Crux field discovered in 2000 has supposedly some 2 TCF of gas and 70 mmbls condensate reserves.

Shell have submitted a plan to develop it. "The project consists of the platform, five production wells with minimal processing and utility systems, and a 26 inch (660 mm) 165 km export pipeline back to Prelude."

"Shell, along with joint venture partners Seven Group Holdings and Osaka Gas, submitted a proposal to the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority to develop the Crux field earlier this month."



In addition to that news, one of the partners Seven Group Holdings may look to potentially sell or farm down.

Whether or not it is of any bearing to JSE, it comes at a time when JSE have a good relationship with PTTEP and who have recently had success with Orchid on their 100% 3.5 TCF Cash Maple project above Montara of which Montara and some of the other cluster of gas fields could tie in as PTTEP planned to do.

[mount teide] 09/3/2019 18:04

Brent Average Prices US$:

$39.25 - H1/2016
$48.25 - H2/2016
$52.25 - H1/2017
$56.25 - H2/2017
$70.75 - H1/2018
$70.25 - H2/2018
$62.50 - Q1/2019 to date
$65.75 - Current Spot Price

$70.89 - Estimated realised price for Montara's current 13,181 bopd, after taking into consideration the circa $2.5 regional price premium to Brent and 5,500 bbls hedged at $72/bbl


At current production levels the Stag and Montana fields have circa 3 and 6 months FPSO storage capacity respectively - providing a degree of flexibility to ride out short term downside movements in the oil price.

[spangle93] 08/3/2019 11:58

ZENGAS - good find

I think that PTTEP website page is somewhat dated, however, as it still implies that PTTEP is the decision-maker for Montara.

Cash Maple is very much stranded. It was considering Floating LNG, but sources say that this option is now shelved. I understand it was one of the fields bidding to use the Darwin LNG facilities by building a pipeline across to Bayu-Undan but it was in competition with a number of other projects for limited capacity in the pipeline and plant.

Also, if, given as one of the reasons at the time of the sale to Montara, PTTEP is wishing to exit Australia, why is it spending money on more appraisal at Cash Maple?

Meanwhile
Asssociated Gas at Montara has to date been reinjected - it must have plenty of its own gas to export. However, usually ultimate production gas that's injected in a gas cap above a thin oil rim is the last phase of a field, cos if you start producing the gas, you drop the reservoir pressure which loses oil reserves. So it could (hopefully) be many years in the future

[zengas] 08/3/2019 11:10

More positive news today and fresh hopes for our future Montara gas (not included in the CPR) from PTTEPs 100% interest in Cash Maple. More reserves etc makes the development more likely and cost effective.

PTTEP makes new gas discovery in Orchid-1, offshore Australia

8 Mar 2019

Bangkok, March 8, 2019 – Phongsthorn Thavisin, President and Chief Executive Officer of PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (PTTEP) disclosed that PTTEP Australasia (Ashmore Cartier) Pty Ltd (PTTEP AAA), a wholly owned subsidiary of PTTEP had made a successful discovery of gas and condensate at the Orchid-1, the first exploration well in Permit AC/P54 located in the Timor Sea, Australia.

Commenced in January this year, the drilling of the Orchid-1 was undertaken to a total depth of 2,925 metres. The well encountered gas and condensate with the net pay thickness around 34 metres. The result is in line with PTTEP’s expectation and will be incorporated into development planning of Cash-Maple field which contains 3.5 TCF of resources.

AC/P54 is an exploration permit under PTTEP Australasia project which comprises Permits AC/L3, AC/RL4, AC/RL5, AC/RL6, AC/RL7 (Cash-Maple field), AC/RL10, AC/RL12 and AC/P54 in the Timor Sea off northern Western Australia.



From PTTEP

Cash Maple is located approximately 680km west of Darwin, 700km northeast of Broome and 200km south of the Indonesian coastline.

The facility will produce gas from three groups of fields:

Cash Maple field
Southern group of fields comprising Padthaway, Bilyara, Tahbilk and Montara fields
Oliver field

[mount teide] 08/3/2019 11:02

From the admission document: 'The limited number of qualified offshore operators in Australia looking to deploy second phase specialisation, and Jadestone’s recently proven ability to obtain regulatory approvals, in particular approval as operator culminating in the transfer of operatorship of Stag in July 2017, proved a significant competitive advantage when engaging with the Montara Field's NOC owner/seller.'

Montara and Stag are now efficient, well run assets(and highly material cash cows) - this should help enormously in getting further acquisitions from first phase operators offloading non core Australian and SE Asian assets.

From the last conference call: 'The self financing economics of the 2-3 year asset development plan is based on $50 Brent.'

'The Business Development team is actively monitoring a number of other early stage opportunities, some of greater scale than Montara'


Jadestone Vietnam - Natural Gas Asset Development Plan

The long term growth potential for Natural Gas in SE Asia is huge and growing much faster than any other region in the world - the result of a move to clean energy sources to deal with appalling pollution issues, very high populations, and the rapid move towards urbanisation across the region.

As a result, the energy hungry but resource/production lite SE Asian region pays a very significant premium for its Natural Gas imports much of which is in form of very expensive LNG by sea.

Average Natural Gas pricing over the last 5 years in the various major consuming markets:
US$ per MMBtu
$3 - US
$6 - UK/Europe
$9 - Japan/SE Asia(peak period LNG spot cargoes can reach $15)

More than 50% of all LNG spot cargoes currently shipping into South East Asia are from the US - the current average profit margin per cargo is an astonishing $4 per MMBtu / 133% of the current US spot rate!

In common with Japan, most other SE Asian Nations are raising their consumption forecasts for natural gas for the decade ahead as a result of a planned shift from coal and Nuclear - this will help keep the region's huge "Nat Gas Price Premium" well underpinned.

South Korea, the world’s third-largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer behind Japan and China has previously forecast natural gas demand remaining static at around 34.65 million tonnes of LNG equivalent in 2029. However, after a public outcry over pollution levels, they recently revised this forecast upward to 40.49 million tonnes in 2031, to demonstrate a greater commitment to clean energy sources. In common with much of SE Asia the country has long been reliant on coal and nuclear power to produce electricity. The share of gas-fired power generation made up about 17% of the country’s total electricity needs in 2017 and is estimated to increase to 18.8% by 2031 - leaving plenty more potential for a further shift away from coal to cleaner energy.

The region has the World's three largest LNG importing Nations - Japan, China and South Korea - combined they currently import the majority of their Nat Gas via ships. This trend is not only set to continue but rapidly accelerate with all three committed to very large capital expenditure increases to massively expand their gas supply infrastructure, storage facilities and pipelines. Japan's new $40bn Ichthys LNG terminal is the latest to commence operations in the region this year.

However its viewed - the SE Asian region is planning to have a much greater reliance on Natural Gas imports for their energy needs in the future(the region is forecast to consume 75% of global nat gas production by 2030), and since much will increasingly be in the form of expensive LNG by sea, this will effectively maintain a permanent price premium for natural gas supplied by pipeline in the region.

Having a rising tide(commodity cycle, market and company fundamentals) gently flooding behind an industry significantly helps to minimise the investment downside risk. Similar to the LNG suppliers into the region, Jadestone expects to negotiate a long term fixed price gas supply contract for its Vietnam gas field production with the Vietnam Government and fertiliser industry, with annual fixed price uplifts.

The more two friends and i research Jadestone Energy the stronger our impression grows of a company being: "In the right place, at the right time, with the right product and management". We see Jadestone as an early stage 'Venture Production'(of North Sea second phase O&G field fame) of the SE Asian / Pacific Rim O&G Basins.


AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 08/3/2019 10:04

Ensco 107 has been contracted to drill the Stag infill well

For those that it may interest - the Link below shows the current position of Ensco 107 - the Stag Platform is the anchor symbol on the chart around 16-17 nautical miles to the NW - circa 4hrs tow time.

- clicking on the map symbol and then increasing the map range brings the Stag Platform and its FPSO Dampier Spirit into range/view.

[homebrewruss] 08/3/2019 09:12

Looks like the JSE story is slowly getting a wider audience.
Still nice and quiet but (aside from other catalysts) I think if they announce a divi around September time that would really make people take notice.

AAZ (a cash flow rich gold miner) announced their maiden dividend last September and the price shot up.

[croasdalelfc] 08/3/2019 08:44

The 41.52 are my buys