Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[alphorn] 12/3/2019 15:46

MT - thanks for that summary. I may well dip my toe in.

[walter walcarpets] 12/3/2019 15:43

Looking promising for a breakout?

[mount teide] 12/3/2019 15:20

Alp - some thoughts - make of it what you will!

The JSE management is guiding with a target of doubling production in 2019 versus 2018.

The longer term production forecast is for a further doubling of the 2019 guidance figure to circa 30,000 boepd by 2023 - which is expected to be achieved through a self financed program of organic growth.

Significant downside protection is built into the long term forecast imo by:

* An expected long term(10 year) Nat Gas supply agreement with Vietnam Government based on a fixed price(very high regional rate with yearly uplifts), together with a modest field development cost and potentially very low field operating expenses.

* The self financed production development plan through to 30,000 boepd is based on $50 Brent

* Production could be circa 20,000 bopd as early as H1/2020

* High potential for the operating expenses per barrel at both Montara and Stag to fall further into the range $15-$20/bbl over the next 15 months from their respective production development plans alone, before any further contribution from improving field operating efficiencies/costs etc

Should the management deliver a production development performance remotely close to the 2023 target, a valuation of many multiples of the current share-price is potentially achievable - with the added prospect of an accelerated timeline to 30,000 boepd from the acquisition of further high quality, competitively priced but poorly managed Australian oilfield assets similar to Montara and Stag.


AIMHO/DYOR

[alphorn] 12/3/2019 11:18

MT - as you know I have JSE on my watch list and follow the posts here.

What would your median expectations be for capital appreciation?
The reason that I ask is to match it against writing put options in say BP which would yield me say 15% pa. with the same industry risk.
The higher risk profile of a smaller operation would also have to considered.

Just out of interest.

[fardels bear] 12/3/2019 08:09

Long as he doesn't do a Fred Goodwin.

[homebrewruss] 12/3/2019 07:58

Spangle, yes acquisitions seem highly likely assuming they can find the 'right' ones.
They'll soon be throwing off lots of cash and will need to find some use for it :)

Look at what RRE are doing now although my fear there is that Andrew Austin might do an acquisition too far!

[spangle93] 12/3/2019 07:39

Remember at all times that the production guidance has to include the downtime. If you're planning to average 15,000 bopd over the year and you're offline for 1/6 of the time, you need to average 18,000 bopd when you're producing. [75% of production is from Montara]. Another Montara shutdown is due in 4Q according to slide 6.

But it does include an anticipated 1/4 of the year of production at Ogen Komering, which may come earlier or later, or be higher or lower. T


Russ - out of the two of us, it's just you ;-)
But that's based on current assets. It's hard to conceive that further acquisitions won't take place in this period

[homebrewruss] 11/3/2019 21:38

Thanks Zengas, nice post. Is it just me or does the 30,000 boepd by 2023 sound a bit conservative?

[zengas] 11/3/2019 21:15

Page 14 of the presentation says Stag infill well to be spudded March 12th targetting 1200 bopd (underneath headline then says - on or around March 12).

This is going to be a busy period and much more going on that just the Stag well as the 3 Montara light well interventions to commence shortly are estimated to add almost 3 times more oil production that the Stag infill well.

In Q2 the riserless subsea light well intervention programme starts on 3 wells at Montara. (Page 9)

Skua 11, Swift 2 and Swallow 1. This is to give an incremental average of 3,200 bopd June - December.

Finally, the Montara H6 infill well in the final quarter of the year to add over 3,000 bopd going forward into next year.

If our average is to be 13,250 - 15,250 bopd for the year based on Stag/Montara, one would expect around 15,000 bopd to be the ongoing production in the latter part of the year. With a further 3200 bopd expected at year end going into 2020 - there's good chance production could be topping around 18,000 bopd.

If the Ogan Komering production asset is approved by October 1st, this might add a further 1,000 boepd - taking us to circa 19,000 boepd.

Any decent acquisition of a production asset and perhaps 20-25k boepd could be within sight not forgetting further Montara and Stag infill wells to come beyond the end of the year.

[someuwin] 11/3/2019 19:55

Well spotted MT.

[mount teide] 11/3/2019 19:50

Offshore tow/anchor handling vessel 'CMV Athos' is now in attendance close-by the Ensco 107 drill rig - possibly suggesting the circa 4 hour tow out to the Stag Field could be imminent.

[fozzie] 11/3/2019 12:56

I would be delighted if someone could get along and report back for us ;o) i am at the other end of the country, as usual.

[someuwin] 11/3/2019 12:23

Still can't buy many.

[meteors] 11/3/2019 10:31

not quite 40mill then :P

[meteors] 11/3/2019 09:54

if I wasn't heading on a mini travel i'd invest more ;)

coincidentally heading to Vietnam HAHA!!! could pop in and say hello to the ppl they have their currently in Saigon xD

[homebrewruss] 11/3/2019 09:51

Meteors you may be right, perhaps needs the dividend to get things really moving but chart looks decent and we might see some interest from the LSE presentation.

Plus we could get some further acquisition news at any point.
A good time to accumulate while the price is at these levels imo.

[meteors] 11/3/2019 09:45

Think we will have to wait till Q3/Q4 for significant change in share price However this sounds very pleasing to the ear!!

“Following our acquisition of the Montara asset, offshore Australia, we have tripled production, all of it high quality premium-priced oil from offshore Australia, and are making good progress on a significant development project in Vietnam, which we expect to sanction this year.

“At the same time, we have changed the character of the company's finances, such that we are well-positioned to deploy significant cash generated from operations to pursuing attractive reinvestment opportunities, while comfortably servicing our debt obligations and further strengthening our balance sheet.”

publication available on sharecast.com

[fardels bear] 11/3/2019 09:27

They don't seem in a hurry.

[someuwin] 11/3/2019 09:19

It means they'll have to move the price up if buying pressure persists.

[meteors] 11/3/2019 08:46

just tried, odd. How come ? Hedge Funds buying up 40mills worth? xD

[someuwin] 11/3/2019 08:30

No online buy quote available.

[spangle93] 10/3/2019 14:19

ZENGAS - ref Crux - the key phrase is "minimal processing and utility systems"

I can't say a lot more here, but my personal view is that it has limited relevance to Montara in the foreseeable future

[croasdalelfc] 10/3/2019 11:40

Ensco 107 not moved yet

[croasdalelfc] 10/3/2019 11:18

Mount Teide - thanks for your thoughtful , insightful posts - this is one of the better BBS on Advfn