Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[thomas11] 11/2/2019 15:39

Just trying to understand the last rns, Have I understood this !

We are targeting 1.2mmbbl reserves with a production rate of 1.2mbbl/d.

This equates to 1,000 days of production which is less than 3 years with an 18 month payback period ?

Is this others understanding ?

[mount teide] 11/2/2019 08:26

Stag Field

Jadestone W.I. - 100%
Operator - Jadestone
2P Reserves - 17.1 mmbbl
Current Production - 3.0 - 3.6 mbbl/d

Overview:
Mid-life asset acquired November 2016 for US$10mm
2P NPV10 - US$84mm
Long life production profile c.2034
Shallow water offshore, Carnarvon Basin

Facilities:
11 producing wells and 3 subsea water injection wells
l Manned platform, connected to a leased storage vessel (FSO)

Future development:
Significant infield running room, several well locations identified

First infill targeted for Q1 2019 - estimated initial production of 1.2 mbbl/d, payback in less than 18 months

Further wells planned mid-year 2019 and mid-year 2020

Two near field exploration prospects identified

Operating Costs:
Impact on unit opex from increasing production - expected to reduce from $33/bbl at 3,000 bopd to $25.2/bbl at 4,000 bopd and $20.1/bbl at 5,000 bopd.

Further logistics savings with 19% reduction in helicopter costs to be implemented in 2019

Latest Stag production premium to Brent: + US$1.45/bbl

[spangle93] 11/2/2019 07:19

Rig contract for Stag infill well announced



Drilling expected in a month's time subject to rig release

[mount teide] 06/2/2019 22:21

Hedge Funds Drop Shorts On Crude Oil - Oilprice.com - yesterday

[zengas] 05/2/2019 12:05

Like Ogan Komering, JSE has a number of projects including production/reserves and 2C not included in the listing doc/CPR until ratified

JSE has circa 20 mmboe 2C gas and oil in SC56 in the Philippines through a 25% working interest though Total decided it wasn't going to drill and JSE are seeking compensation.

Also on SC57 the Chinese National Oil Company CNOOC as operator hold 51% and JSE 21%. This is under force majeure for some time while the Philippines/China are in dispute over the South China Sea area.

SC57 isn't inside the disputed area.

Barely 10 weeks ago, on the 20th November 2018 China and the Philippines signed a MOU on oil/gas development.

"Earlier this year, Malacañang confirmed that two areas are being considered for the possible joint exploration — Service Contract (SC) 57, which covers northwest Palawan, and SC 72 which refers to Reed Bank. SC 57 is located in a non-contested area while Reed Bank is disputed, which requires an agreement from both parties for the deal to push through."

[mount teide] 05/2/2019 11:38

2 x 500,000 and 1 x 100,000 buys at the full 39p ask price is encouraging.

[alamaison5] 05/2/2019 11:19

Huge volume today. Balancing the books for the rise?

[zengas] 04/2/2019 12:58

In reality, you have to consider the entire Montara opportunity. It didn't fit with PTTEPs plans because they have assets of much, much greater magnitude to deal with and it is considered non core. There's much greater potential in the fields over and above current CPR and 28mmbo P2. At the end of the day, this is only one of a multiple set of opportunities and worth bearing in mind what else is yet to come in terms of acquisitions in propelling JSE to significant growth.

[spangle93] 04/2/2019 12:23

Hi MT - good information

Still think that comparing a leased FPSO for a new field on plateau production in the North Sea versus an owned FPSO, incurring opex costs, in a mature field in commonwealth waters in Australia is a stretch, and that easier analogies to demonstrate the value of the deal could be made

[mount teide] 04/2/2019 11:45

Spangle - the Montara FPSO storage capacity versus that of the Catcher FPSO:

BW Catcher has only 10 days production storage capacity so will need an expensive shuttle tanker on permanent year round charter plus guaranteed access to a second(back up) shuttle tanker to ensure production off load operations can smoothly progress from BW Catcher on at least a weekly basis in order to avoid shuttering in field production.

Whereas the Montara FPSO has three months storage capacity for the current production level, so would need to only voyage charter a single tanker just 4-5 times a year to offload all Montara's annual production to market.

Over the last decade Shuttle tankers have routinely commanded US$30,000 plus a day charter rates for a 5-10 year charter period - so Premier's annual shuttle tanker charter cost would be circa $11m a year plus fuel, plus the charter fee for a guaranteed supply of a second tanker, which is likely to be close to another $11m. These shuttle tanker charter costs on Montara's current production level would be equivalent to $7 a barrel of additional operating cost. JSE's $2-3 premium to Brent generates many, many multiples of the current cost to voyage charter a large shuttle tanker 4-5 times a year.

[spangle93] 04/2/2019 11:09

MT - your point about the JSE acquisition being financially attractive is valid, but it's not a particularly strong analogy.

For instance the storage capacity is somewhat moot, since Catcher is 1/4 the distance from a supply base that Montara is, and Montara, which is already in late life, is producing at just 10 kboped. The concern at Montara isn't the oil handling capacity, which is well in excess of whatever the field could now deliver, it's water handling of 60 kbwpd, when water cut is already over 50% in the main field and 80% at Skua (i.e. for each barrel of oil they have to handle 5 of water).And JSE has wellhead decom cost liabilities, which the FPSO at Catcher doesn't, and maintenance and operations cost, which is part of BW's supply contract. Etc.

Conversely for balance in favour of JSE, you could have said that for the net $81MM they also get all the wells, subsea infrastructure, and platform, whereas the FPSO is only the process and export.

edit - Maybe a better picture is that the $81MM net is not much more than the cost of a single MODU-drilled well out in Comonwealth waters

[mount teide] 04/2/2019 10:16

base - if the management continue creating exceptional value, market greed over time will do the rest.

After the $92m cash transfer on completion of the $195m Montara deal in September 2018 and $22m for the subsequent maintenance shutdown - JSE has secured the purchase of the 10,000+ bopd Montara Asset and its FPSO vessel with 45,000 bpd processing and 900,000 barrels of storage capacity, currently generating $8-$10 million a month of cash flow for the almost unbelievable sum of $81m!

To put this in persecutive - Premier oil are paying BW Offshore a charter contract fee(10 year initial fixed duration) for the FPSO BW Catcher of $210m per annum. BW Catcher has a processing capacity of 60,000 bpd and a significantly smaller storage capacity of 650,000 barrels compared to JSE's Montara FPSO.

[fozzie] 04/2/2019 09:49

Thanks for that ;o)

[alamaison5] 04/2/2019 09:11

JSE: Seller finished? Great, let's move up!

[mount teide] 01/2/2019 19:06

Tyrus Capitals's 8.5 million purchase reported on 24 January took them to 25.6% - when combined with Livermore Partners 7%, it means the two US activist Hedge Funds now hold close to a third of the company between them.

They also hold NED positions in JSE and were responsible for restructuring the Board and head hunting Paul Blakeley and his high flying Talisman Asia Pacific team.

Tyrus's recent purchase will have taken the notifiable positions close to 69%.

[zengas] 01/2/2019 15:38

Come on Spangle own up, you're over 3% !

[spangle93] 01/2/2019 14:31

Fozzie ;-) or they just don't declare

It states 31.74% shares not in public hands (146.3 MM of a total of 461.0 MM)

Also, I overlooked previously that the list in post 333 was dated Dec 4th 2018, so not too out of date at all

[fozzie] 01/2/2019 13:36

Thanks Spangle, approx 65%, obvs MT and Zengas will be just under the threshold for reporting ;o)

[spangle93] 01/2/2019 13:01

Fozzie - I think it's Mounte Teide and Zengas ;-)

Seriously there's a section under AIM Rule 26 on their website that covers significant shareholders, proportion outside public hands etc.



As stated there (with usual caveats about making the company aware, and no date) these are

Tyrus Capital S.A.M. 23.80%
Odey Asset Management 8.28%
Livermore Partners LLC 7.01%
Miton Asset Management Limited 6.43%
Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board 4.20%
West Face Long Term Opportunities Global Master L.P. 3.42%
Fidelity International 3.25%
Baillie Gifford & Co 3.21%
Capital World Investors 3.18%
GLG Partners 3.04%

[fozzie] 01/2/2019 12:30

Who are the main shareholders here and what %'s do they hold. No info on Morningstar which is where i normally look.

[mount teide] 30/1/2019 19:21

What we do know is that:

The ten year average price of Brent is $80.

A $61 Brent oil price adjusted for inflation is just $47 in 2009 prices, when Brent peaked at $147

JSE has a balanced, low risk, full cycle, value accretive development portfolio forecast to deliver 43% CAGR between 2016 and 2023, and 25,000 - 30,000 mboe/d by 2021-23

The organic growth plan delivers forecast annual free cash flow every year through to 2024.

JSE has a proven in-region management team with an excellent track record of value creation and generating returns for shareholders - company currently trades at a deep discount to core NAV.

JSE headhunted the former Talisman Asia Pacific team who are second phase specialists and have a long history of optimising field operations to grow reserves, reduce costs and add value.

The growth plan is focusing on the low cost, high margin markets in Asia Pacific and is forecast to deliver robust cash flow generation at low oil prices. JSE's portfolio of high return quick payback investment opportunities includes 2019 infill drilling at Stag and Montara.

A growing oil and gas supply shortfall across Asia /Pacific is driving attractive pricing dynamics for regional producers. JSE's Montara and Stag production currently attracts a $2-$3 premium to Brent.

The SE Asian region is characterised by high growth, energy-hungry economies:
Natural gas demand is forecast to rise by circa 4.5% annually through to 2025, with supply in decline by 2020. A 1.9 bcf/d gas supply gap is forecast by 2020, rising to 4.7 bcf/d in 2025. Oil demand growth is forecast to average 2.4%pa through to 2025. The region is projected to consume 75% of the total global production of nat gas by 2040.

The Asia Pacific region has been responsible for the entire 34 million bopd increase in the global consumption of oil since 1975.

[alamaison5] 30/1/2019 15:34

Monte: do you really know what's the price of oil gona be in 2/3 years time?
Amasing!!!
Or is it just another ramp?