Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ifthecapfits] 13/3/2019 13:20

Well done. I'm a little peeved actually as I was going to top up materially in April here, ECO & ARS. All three have moved materially of late - annoyed and happy at the same time!

[someuwin] 13/3/2019 13:09

Bought more JSE today. Now by far the biggest holding in my SIPP.

Very confident on this one.

[mount teide] 13/3/2019 11:54

Oil Markets See An Explosion Of Bullish News - Oilprice.com

'Oil prices jumped to two-week highs on Tuesday morning, rising on the back of severe outages in Venezuela and the ongoing production cuts from OPEC+.

A devastating electricity blackout swept over Venezuela late last week, crippling daily life for much of the country. PDVSA’s oil exports have been severely disrupted, and while data is scarce, output may have plunged by half to about 500,000 bpd, according to Energy Aspects. “Operations halted at main facilities, reducing output of main synthetic grades and blended Merey to almost zero,” Energy Aspects wrote in a note.

“There’s a vicious circle,” the International Energy Agency’s head Fatih Birol told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the IHS CERAWeek Conference in Houston. “Since the oil isn’t exported, there’s not revenue, since there’s not revenue you cannot invest in infrastructure.̶1;

The big question is how long the outage will last. The U.S. State Department announced the withdrawal of its remaining embassy personnel in Caracas. That could reduce the potential for conflict, since any incursion on American personnel could be used as a pretext for an escalation, possibly even military intervention. However, the withdrawal cuts both ways. Removing American diplomats could get them out of harm’s way, clearing the way for bolder action. Worryingly, U.S. Secretary of State justified the withdrawal by saying that keeping them in Venezuela had become a “constraint221; on U.S. policy.

The outages have global implications. Oil prices surged at the start of the week, with WTI jumping above $57 per barrel, and Brent above $67 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the OPEC+ cuts remain in place, and Saudi Arabia has suggested that it would maintain output well below its required levels. As part of the Vienna agreement in December, Saudi Arabia agreed to limit output to 10.3 million barrels per day (mb/d). However, as of March, Saudi officials said that they would only produce 9.8 mb/d. More recently, Saudi Arabia indicated it would maintain the 9.8 mb/d level through April, a sign that even as oil prices inch up, Riyadh would rather err on the side of doing too much rather than too little.

Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih also indicated that the OPEC production cuts could remain in place beyond June.

Combined, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia have provided a jolt to the market. “Oil prices are rising for the second day in a row…They are continuing to receive tailwind from yesterday’s announcement by Saudi Arabia that it will significantly restrict oil supply in April,” Commerzbank wrote in a note on Tuesday. “This shows Saudi Arabia’s resolve to keep the oil market balanced by keeping oil supply tight. Additional buoyancy has come from news that the massive power outage in Venezuela, that has been ongoing for five days now, is also hampering the country’s oil exports.”

On top of that, U.S. oil production actually fell slightly in December, an indication that the blistering growth rate could be “taking a breather after a six-month-long streak of all-time highs,” Barclays wrote in a report. The U.S. averaged 11.85 mb/d in December, down roughly 60,000 bpd from November levels. The decline came as a surprise after consecutive months of rapid growth.

It is too early to come to any conclusions, and one month’s worth of data does not indicate a trend, but the collapse of oil prices in November and December may have slowed the trajectory of the U.S. shale patch. Spending cuts and pressure from investors are forcing a lot of companies to curtail their ambitions.

To be sure, ost forecasts still call for another year of massive output growth. The EIA sees production jumping by another 1.4 mb/d. But other analysts said that the spending cuts could result in output undershooting those estimates. “Fundamentally I think supply estimates for the U.S will disappoint,” Ben Dell, managing partner at Kimmeridge, told CNBC.

“We expect production growth to remain relatively soft during H1 19 but pick up pace in the second half,” Barclays said.

In short, there are several factors working in a bullish direction, especially when compared to more pessimistic forecasts from a few months ago. Demand has held steady, defying dire forecasts for an imminent collapse due to a souring economy. The OPEC+ cuts, combined with unexpected outages, are tightening up the market. And while there is a great deal of uncertainty, U.S. shale could potentially slow down.

While inventories have yet to demonstrate a decline following the OPEC+ cuts, the market appears to be tightening up. Next up: Waivers on U.S. sanctions on Iran are a little more than two months away from expiration, which offers another land mine for global supply.'

[someuwin] 13/3/2019 11:30

Hopefully the video of last night's presentation will be available soon.

[homebrewruss] 13/3/2019 11:21

Spangle nothing wrong.
A hashtag such as #JSE can be used by anyone when posting a tweet and then you can search on that hashtag and with something like JSE there may be multiple different reasons for using that hashtag - not just Jadestone related.

Agreed we should probably limit further discussions about twitter from this thread.

[walter walcarpets] 13/3/2019 11:16

thefartingcommie: with a handle like that you have about as much right as me to talk of seriousness ;-)

[thefartingcommie] 13/3/2019 11:02

are you lot taking over this previously serious and informative thread with vapid twitterati?

I do hope not..........

[spangle93] 13/3/2019 10:53

What I know about twitter could be written in less than 140 characters, but if I follow the #JSE link in your header, it talks about the Johannesburg stock exchange. What am I doing wrong?

[croasdalelfc] 13/3/2019 10:43

20 in the group

[croasdalelfc] 13/3/2019 09:57

I'm in several 'private' groups some with 75 members , the max allowed - @Croasdale01 - my profile shows my holding and prices on entry

[homebrewruss] 13/3/2019 09:49

Twitter attracts a different set of investors (perhaps more traders) but good to open up the discussion.

I'm using both but in many ways I prefer ADVFN for discussion as you can post longer posts, refer to previous posts by number and also search the threads.

[croasdalelfc] 13/3/2019 09:43

12 in group now -

[mount teide] 13/3/2019 09:34

croas - interesting - will have a look.

[croasdalelfc] 13/3/2019 09:19

Because it's always good to consider views of informed investors - I've started JSE group on twitter this morning - 5 in it so far

[fozzie] 13/3/2019 09:16

A nice move for sure. I bought for my sons portfolio, virtually everything i touch at the moment seems to crash so somewhat relieved even though early days.

[someuwin] 13/3/2019 09:07

Can't get a buy quote for just £3k now.

[mount teide] 13/3/2019 09:06

Looks like a chart breakout/re-rating may be underway - a new all-time high share price is currently being paid.

L2: 45.2p v 46.0p

[mount teide] 13/3/2019 08:39

Indeed 250k x 2 @ 44.8p - someone appears keen - last nights presentation must have gone well !

Croasdalelfc - of course - no, do not have an account, although do occasionally read the comments of others and companies. Why do you ask?

[croasdalelfc] 13/3/2019 08:26

Mount Teide - may I kindly ask if you are on twitter?

[mount teide] 13/3/2019 08:22

Current actual bid/offer - 44.4p v 45.0p - with full offer price being paid.

[mount teide] 12/3/2019 21:14

Venezuela - Crude output has more than halved according to Bloomberg reports as a result of a five day Nationwide blackout seriously impacting the industry which is heavily reliant on the National Grid. Such is the fast deteriorating situation in the country, the US announced this afternoon that it is withdrawing ALL diplomats.

Saudi Arabia piled the pressure on the supply side today by announcing it is to keep oil production below 10 mb/d in April, extending its deeper-than-required cuts for another month. The move is said to highlight the Saudis desire to rapidly drain inventories and boost prices.


Crude Output Plunges on Venezuela Power Cuts - Bloomberg today

'Oil production in Venezuela has collapsed due to power blackouts throughout the country with state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela and its joint venture partners struggling to operate wells and other facilities due to the electrical problems which began four days ago, according to a senior Oil Ministry official.

Oil wells were halted and production stopped in some parts of the country as the industry depends on the national electricity grid, said the official, who asked not to be named since he’s not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The person didn’t provide details on the scope or duration of the stoppage but described the cuts as severe.

Consultant Energy Aspects Ltd told clients in a note that Venezuelan oil production had fallen temporarily to as low as 500,000 barrels a day, more than 50 percent below 1.1 million barrels a day that the nation pumped in January. "Operations halted at main facilities, reducing output of main synthetic grades and blended Merey to almost zero," the consultant said.

The impact will be reflected in official production reports for March and company president and Oil Minister Manuel Quevedo should provide details on the situation this week, the person said. The ministry and company declined to comment on the state of the industry. PDVSA said on Sunday that gasoline supplies were guaranteed across the country.

Venezuela’s oil industry has already been decimated in recent years by declining production, a lack of investment and an exodus of trained and experienced managers and workers. In addition, sanctions recently closed Venezuela off from the U.S. market both for crude exports and imports of refined goods needed to blend with its heavy grade oil. Venezuela was exempted from the last round of OPEC-mandated output cuts due to the steep decline in production.

"The deterioration has accelerated," Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said in an interview. Even before the current power blackouts, the IEA was expecting Venezuelan output to decline a further 500,000 barrels a day over time, he said. "I don’t see a reversal of the production trend in the current context."

"There’s a vicious circle," Birol said. "Since the oil isn’t exported, there’s no revenue, since there’s no revenue you cannot invest in infrastructure."

Output in the west of the country where lighter grades are pulled from wells has been hit hardest while some areas of the Orinoco Belt have been able to keep pumping, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation.

The Orinoco Belt, which represents over 50 percent of total production, is connected to high voltage power lines coming from the hydroelectric dam known as El Guri where the bulk of Venezuela’s electricity is generated. PDVSA runs joint ventures with Equinor ASA, Chevron Corp, Total SA, Rosneft and Repsol SA, among others in the area.

Chevron and Equinor referred requests for comment to majority joint venture partner PDVSA while Total, Rosneft and Repsol didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.

Oil stocks at upgraders, which are used to convert heavy tar-like crude into lighter blends for export, have reached their limits in the past weeks and downstream production was already being cut back at some oil wells to prevent backlog, one of the people said.

"We continue working to guarantee the efficient supply to the whole country, our inventories continue to be stable, we deny any shortage," PDVSA said on Twitter Monday.

Other than that, the government has remained silent both with details of the power failures and with any impact on the oil industry. Beyond blaming the opposition and U.S. for alleged sabotage of the Guri dam and distribution lines.'

[croasdalelfc] 12/3/2019 16:42

Pleased I added at 42.9

[thomas11] 12/3/2019 16:36

Must have been a big toe looking at the rise !