Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[croasdalelfc] 13/3/2019 09:43

12 in group now -

[mount teide] 13/3/2019 09:34

croas - interesting - will have a look.

[croasdalelfc] 13/3/2019 09:19

Because it's always good to consider views of informed investors - I've started JSE group on twitter this morning - 5 in it so far

[fozzie] 13/3/2019 09:16

A nice move for sure. I bought for my sons portfolio, virtually everything i touch at the moment seems to crash so somewhat relieved even though early days.

[someuwin] 13/3/2019 09:07

Can't get a buy quote for just £3k now.

[mount teide] 13/3/2019 09:06

Looks like a chart breakout/re-rating may be underway - a new all-time high share price is currently being paid.

L2: 45.2p v 46.0p

[mount teide] 13/3/2019 08:39

Indeed 250k x 2 @ 44.8p - someone appears keen - last nights presentation must have gone well !

Croasdalelfc - of course - no, do not have an account, although do occasionally read the comments of others and companies. Why do you ask?

[croasdalelfc] 13/3/2019 08:26

Mount Teide - may I kindly ask if you are on twitter?

[mount teide] 13/3/2019 08:22

Current actual bid/offer - 44.4p v 45.0p - with full offer price being paid.

[mount teide] 12/3/2019 21:14

Venezuela - Crude output has more than halved according to Bloomberg reports as a result of a five day Nationwide blackout seriously impacting the industry which is heavily reliant on the National Grid. Such is the fast deteriorating situation in the country, the US announced this afternoon that it is withdrawing ALL diplomats.

Saudi Arabia piled the pressure on the supply side today by announcing it is to keep oil production below 10 mb/d in April, extending its deeper-than-required cuts for another month. The move is said to highlight the Saudis desire to rapidly drain inventories and boost prices.


Crude Output Plunges on Venezuela Power Cuts - Bloomberg today

'Oil production in Venezuela has collapsed due to power blackouts throughout the country with state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela and its joint venture partners struggling to operate wells and other facilities due to the electrical problems which began four days ago, according to a senior Oil Ministry official.

Oil wells were halted and production stopped in some parts of the country as the industry depends on the national electricity grid, said the official, who asked not to be named since he’s not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The person didn’t provide details on the scope or duration of the stoppage but described the cuts as severe.

Consultant Energy Aspects Ltd told clients in a note that Venezuelan oil production had fallen temporarily to as low as 500,000 barrels a day, more than 50 percent below 1.1 million barrels a day that the nation pumped in January. "Operations halted at main facilities, reducing output of main synthetic grades and blended Merey to almost zero," the consultant said.

The impact will be reflected in official production reports for March and company president and Oil Minister Manuel Quevedo should provide details on the situation this week, the person said. The ministry and company declined to comment on the state of the industry. PDVSA said on Sunday that gasoline supplies were guaranteed across the country.

Venezuela’s oil industry has already been decimated in recent years by declining production, a lack of investment and an exodus of trained and experienced managers and workers. In addition, sanctions recently closed Venezuela off from the U.S. market both for crude exports and imports of refined goods needed to blend with its heavy grade oil. Venezuela was exempted from the last round of OPEC-mandated output cuts due to the steep decline in production.

"The deterioration has accelerated," Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said in an interview. Even before the current power blackouts, the IEA was expecting Venezuelan output to decline a further 500,000 barrels a day over time, he said. "I don’t see a reversal of the production trend in the current context."

"There’s a vicious circle," Birol said. "Since the oil isn’t exported, there’s no revenue, since there’s no revenue you cannot invest in infrastructure."

Output in the west of the country where lighter grades are pulled from wells has been hit hardest while some areas of the Orinoco Belt have been able to keep pumping, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation.

The Orinoco Belt, which represents over 50 percent of total production, is connected to high voltage power lines coming from the hydroelectric dam known as El Guri where the bulk of Venezuela’s electricity is generated. PDVSA runs joint ventures with Equinor ASA, Chevron Corp, Total SA, Rosneft and Repsol SA, among others in the area.

Chevron and Equinor referred requests for comment to majority joint venture partner PDVSA while Total, Rosneft and Repsol didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.

Oil stocks at upgraders, which are used to convert heavy tar-like crude into lighter blends for export, have reached their limits in the past weeks and downstream production was already being cut back at some oil wells to prevent backlog, one of the people said.

"We continue working to guarantee the efficient supply to the whole country, our inventories continue to be stable, we deny any shortage," PDVSA said on Twitter Monday.

Other than that, the government has remained silent both with details of the power failures and with any impact on the oil industry. Beyond blaming the opposition and U.S. for alleged sabotage of the Guri dam and distribution lines.'

[croasdalelfc] 12/3/2019 16:42

Pleased I added at 42.9

[thomas11] 12/3/2019 16:36

Must have been a big toe looking at the rise !

[alphorn] 12/3/2019 15:46

MT - thanks for that summary. I may well dip my toe in.

[walter walcarpets] 12/3/2019 15:43

Looking promising for a breakout?

[mount teide] 12/3/2019 15:20

Alp - some thoughts - make of it what you will!

The JSE management is guiding with a target of doubling production in 2019 versus 2018.

The longer term production forecast is for a further doubling of the 2019 guidance figure to circa 30,000 boepd by 2023 - which is expected to be achieved through a self financed program of organic growth.

Significant downside protection is built into the long term forecast imo by:

* An expected long term(10 year) Nat Gas supply agreement with Vietnam Government based on a fixed price(very high regional rate with yearly uplifts), together with a modest field development cost and potentially very low field operating expenses.

* The self financed production development plan through to 30,000 boepd is based on $50 Brent

* Production could be circa 20,000 bopd as early as H1/2020

* High potential for the operating expenses per barrel at both Montara and Stag to fall further into the range $15-$20/bbl over the next 15 months from their respective production development plans alone, before any further contribution from improving field operating efficiencies/costs etc

Should the management deliver a production development performance remotely close to the 2023 target, a valuation of many multiples of the current share-price is potentially achievable - with the added prospect of an accelerated timeline to 30,000 boepd from the acquisition of further high quality, competitively priced but poorly managed Australian oilfield assets similar to Montara and Stag.


AIMHO/DYOR

[alphorn] 12/3/2019 11:18

MT - as you know I have JSE on my watch list and follow the posts here.

What would your median expectations be for capital appreciation?
The reason that I ask is to match it against writing put options in say BP which would yield me say 15% pa. with the same industry risk.
The higher risk profile of a smaller operation would also have to considered.

Just out of interest.

[fardels bear] 12/3/2019 08:09

Long as he doesn't do a Fred Goodwin.

[homebrewruss] 12/3/2019 07:58

Spangle, yes acquisitions seem highly likely assuming they can find the 'right' ones.
They'll soon be throwing off lots of cash and will need to find some use for it :)

Look at what RRE are doing now although my fear there is that Andrew Austin might do an acquisition too far!

[spangle93] 12/3/2019 07:39

Remember at all times that the production guidance has to include the downtime. If you're planning to average 15,000 bopd over the year and you're offline for 1/6 of the time, you need to average 18,000 bopd when you're producing. [75% of production is from Montara]. Another Montara shutdown is due in 4Q according to slide 6.

But it does include an anticipated 1/4 of the year of production at Ogen Komering, which may come earlier or later, or be higher or lower. T


Russ - out of the two of us, it's just you ;-)
But that's based on current assets. It's hard to conceive that further acquisitions won't take place in this period

[homebrewruss] 11/3/2019 21:38

Thanks Zengas, nice post. Is it just me or does the 30,000 boepd by 2023 sound a bit conservative?

[zengas] 11/3/2019 21:15

Page 14 of the presentation says Stag infill well to be spudded March 12th targetting 1200 bopd (underneath headline then says - on or around March 12).

This is going to be a busy period and much more going on that just the Stag well as the 3 Montara light well interventions to commence shortly are estimated to add almost 3 times more oil production that the Stag infill well.

In Q2 the riserless subsea light well intervention programme starts on 3 wells at Montara. (Page 9)

Skua 11, Swift 2 and Swallow 1. This is to give an incremental average of 3,200 bopd June - December.

Finally, the Montara H6 infill well in the final quarter of the year to add over 3,000 bopd going forward into next year.

If our average is to be 13,250 - 15,250 bopd for the year based on Stag/Montara, one would expect around 15,000 bopd to be the ongoing production in the latter part of the year. With a further 3200 bopd expected at year end going into 2020 - there's good chance production could be topping around 18,000 bopd.

If the Ogan Komering production asset is approved by October 1st, this might add a further 1,000 boepd - taking us to circa 19,000 boepd.

Any decent acquisition of a production asset and perhaps 20-25k boepd could be within sight not forgetting further Montara and Stag infill wells to come beyond the end of the year.

[someuwin] 11/3/2019 19:55

Well spotted MT.

[mount teide] 11/3/2019 19:50

Offshore tow/anchor handling vessel 'CMV Athos' is now in attendance close-by the Ensco 107 drill rig - possibly suggesting the circa 4 hour tow out to the Stag Field could be imminent.