Itv Share Discussion Threads

[hades1] 14/9/2021 14:55

Well the yanks have dragged it down!
Plus a 8m + Ordinary trade - could be either buy or sell as pre-negotiated and likely delayed?

[nige co] 14/9/2021 11:56

Interesting Hades, thanks.

Yes I'm of the same opinion that ITV's days are numbered.

[hades1] 14/9/2021 11:43

The rumour is between £600m and £1.2b.
I think it will be at the lower end as the existing remit will be largely retained.
But I also think there is a strong possibility that they will decide against privatisation.
Either way won't change ITV's path into US ownership - in my opinion.

[nige co] 14/9/2021 11:35

Hades, what valuation would CH4 bring IYO?

[hades1] 14/9/2021 11:22

They wanted a more balanced business but the market has developed in recent years.

1. The TV advertising market has contracted less than initially feared.
2. The growth of subscription services is reaching the max limit given the amount of money households are prepared to spend of home entertainment. subscription OTT services will replace subscription satellite and cable services but will probably not replace the advertiser funded free to air model.
3. CH4 at the right price would be unique opportunity to for ITV to grow/consolidate their business quickly.
4. ITV have grown their production business enormously. Making programming for everyone. They they are now the largest supplier to the BBC. Taking ownership of CH4 would enable them to growth their studios business with CH4 - current they are a minor supplier to CH4.

ITV will certainly pursue a CH4 merger at the right price but I suspect that any ITV/CH4 merger would just be part of a greater takeover/consolidation play - Likely involving an large US player.
That's my view.

[nige co] 14/9/2021 11:02

Hades, do you think if ITV are allowed to bid for CH4 that they will? If ITV do purchase CH4 wouldn't this be going against what ITV said a few years ago, that they wanted to move away from being too reliant on advertising?

[hades1] 14/9/2021 10:57

Incidentally the Government closes the consultation on the future ownership of CH4 tonight.
I assume they will take a while to make any announcement but I know that many concerns have submitted suggestions/proposals.

[hades1] 14/9/2021 10:39

Nige
Lets agree to disagree on GS

[nige co] 14/9/2021 10:35

Yes I did take a look at the 5 year volume chart, and yes it's down.

[nige co] 14/9/2021 10:34

Yes I would agree Hades, they may have been in control of the share price when they controlled 21%, but I would agree not anymore.

[hades1] 14/9/2021 10:25

Nige
They were juggling a huge long/short leverage position(using shares and CFDs) at the same timing retaining LGs 9.9% voting rights.
The 21% was a momentary position and it included share/other types of positions.
Not anymore - its over.

[hades1] 14/9/2021 10:23

Yes the volume has ticked up today.
Do look at the volume chart I posted earlier.
Look at last 5 yrs - decline in 2021 is extremely marked.

[nige co] 14/9/2021 10:20

Yes part of that 21% was 9.9% holding on behalf of Liberty. But still they were in control of over 21%. I think that GS holding has dropped to about 2%.

ITV holding up well today so far up 1.55p. Bodes well, not before time.

[stansmith3] 14/9/2021 10:18

So far 1m pounds traded on 5bn pound company. Not indicative of much?

[matthewr1] 14/9/2021 10:18

Good morning gents. So just trying to answer the lack of volume asked earlier and yesterday , but please as ever these are all imho and I no longer work in the city so please don’t take these as ‘informed.R17;
Anyway , excuses over………firstly the company is in a news vacuum right now. We had the update a couple of months back but the next update is until November so we’ve all got to wait and see.
Next we are at a crossroads for the markets in terms of US rate hikes. The inflation print expected to be above 5% in the USA today is widely likely to accelerate the rate hike debate there.
This has major implications for all assets but particularly risk assets (equities) as it will give a clearer picture of when central bank support will end… the ‘taper tantrum.’
Uncertainty leads to lack of conviction. This leads to lack of decisions & ultimately a lack of volume… so although holiday season has ended , I think it actually is continuing until that US rate picture clears.
I don’t think the lack of volume is ADR related at all. I’m still guessing blackrock is a buyer , but filing (above 5%) unlikely due to lack of volume available. Hope that helps gents.

[hades1] 14/9/2021 10:15

That's a long time ago and was part of LG's leverage position.
That closed Dec20/Jan21.
I find paranoia about Goldwin Sachs on these BBs extremely irritating if not deeply disturbing.
Sorry.

[ivanborsky] 14/9/2021 10:13

Apologies, my last post should have read '....market(GS) can't fleece their clients any more....'.

[nige co] 14/9/2021 09:56

Yes let's also remember that Goldman were in control of over 21% in August 2020.

[hades1] 14/9/2021 09:34

Not sure about GS but it's certainly flipped positive.
Yesterday it was difficult to either SELL or BUY - couldn't get a price for either at volume.
Today you can do either again.

[ivanborsky] 14/9/2021 09:19

Just added a few more, market(GS) can't find any more sellers and the statement from S4 Cap yesterday was extremely bullish as well.

[hades1] 14/9/2021 09:09

L2/3 flipped +
1100k:895k

[hades1] 14/9/2021 07:02

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ITV/itv-plc/company-pageThen add indicator Volume

[hades1] 13/9/2021 18:00

Maybe Matthewr1 has a more informed explanation?

[hades1] 13/9/2021 17:59

Don’t forget Goldman Sachs are no longer playing with the Liberty Global’s (9.9%) position - That stopped around the end of 2020.