Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[crosswires] 18/11/2024 15:49

As a reminder and whilst I realise the share price might be higher than now by then it’s frightening to see what we predicted…

Honourable mentions to Lords and Nick Wild, the rest of us…not so much! Frankly the 70p plus brigade must have been smoking something good or actually believed everything Americo said. 46maxon picks up the wooden spoon.

Dec 31st 2024 predictions

£0.38 - nickwild
£0.39 - Lordloadsoflolly
£0.46 - LongTallSally
£0.48 - technowiz1
£0.50 - Bing_b
£0.50 - Votiem
£0.51 - Crosswires
£0.52 - jimboyce
£0.55 - Tomduck
£0.55 - Amishp67
£0.58 - JamesRowe
£0.65 - Snaffleclamp
£0.68 - Spursspurs
£0.72 - Hutchmeister
£0.75 - Shrimper2
£0.78 - whackett
£0.80 - Sweenoid
£0.80 - Hannath
£0.85 - bbonsall
£0.85 - 1ultimate
£0.85 - Dockenfielan
£0.94 - Boleyn
£1.20 - 46maxon

[lord loads of lolly] 18/11/2024 15:44

crosswires - Admiral Nelson, followed by Captain Calamity.

IQE's annual Christmas panto marches on.

As for everyone's year end price predictions, all I can say is "Oh no it isn't".

[crosswires] 18/11/2024 14:37

Just checked in, excellent news re RNS, knew it would come whilst I was away. I suspected it would be lower earnings again but that’s obviously why the CEO got the bullet, and as we have said, he was clearly massively out of his depth. The market is tough but I don’t see any other company in the sector doing as badly as IQE. Blame him but also the board employed him so they should hold their hands up…

I really think the TU told us what we already knew and as several of the analysts have noted the risks investing here are now significantly reduced short term and priced in anyways.

LTS exactly, any sale down the line will be materially higher but streamlining the company via Taiwan listing and friendly refinancing via the 15p Lombard deal is another sign that the company is undervalued at 10p. It may seem crazy to some but I think this may be at 25-30p by the time the Taiwan IPO has been completed by H2 2025

Large volume day is good, opening fall was people who panicked and share price has now recovered, I think the worst is behind us.

Good luck to all on this next chapter which cannot be as bad as the one that Captain Calamity (Americo Lemos) brought us…

[phi2001] 18/11/2024 13:41

What a turnaround - nearly 20% down and then back to even in a morning!

[longtallsally] 18/11/2024 13:01

IQE won’t want to be sold, it will be a last resort, and/or under heavy pressure from Lombard but it could happen if in two years say they have failed to make progress. I firmly believe the sale price would be materially higher than here if a sale was achieved. IQE may have failed to make it work but I don’t believe that means the value to the right suitor isn’t substantially higher than now.

[picobird] 18/11/2024 12:44

With the talk of a company sale on this BB, how do you know that there won’t be a ‘bum fight’ resulting in a final price of 50p.

[guildedge] 18/11/2024 11:59

Looks like the market had already factored in the CEO leaving and reason for it.

3.25m in late trades from Friday.

Before share went down to 12.5p last time there was bad news. This time circa 10p. So 20% wiped off the market value. Losses this year closer to 25-29m?

If a private equity fund take it over they generally offer a 20-30% premium on share price and shareholders pretty have to accept the offer. Would they get 15p?

So much for a semiconductor industry set to grow hugely by 2027/2030. Just seems to me they are losing business or the clients outside of Apple are struggling. Add in the NI tax and that only makes things worse.

Of course no guidance for 2025 but let's wait to see what brokers think in 1-2 weeks time. Have IQE lined up any big orders for 2025/2026? Lombard must see something here. Unless 15p was a suggested sale price? share price would need to recover to 12-13p for that to happen.

The reset button has been hit again.

[lord loads of lolly] 18/11/2024 11:18

It really doesn't matter how much cash the Taiwanese IPO generates if IQE simply sinks it into another venture that makes losses.

[lammergeier] 18/11/2024 11:18

Analysts at Peel Hunt estimate the full sale of IQE's Taiwan operations could represent an enterprise value of £160million £190million – compared to a market cap of £103million and gross non-current asset value of £205million as of June.

The broker said: 'We believe the strategic review will result in a leaner company, more focused on the future, with a stronger balance sheet.'

[indiestu] 18/11/2024 11:03

An interesting study from April 23 - Semiconductor Trends in Automotive

[boboty] 18/11/2024 11:00

Thank you - l like this bit "if it pulls off this IPO and trades at an earnings multiple close to that of its listed Taiwanese peer, then the market cap of its Taiwan subsidiary will well exceed that of its UK parent" That would mean in some perverse world the European and American parts of Iqe are free. With Taiwan sold Iqe would have everything it has now - less Taiwan - together with a lot of cash in the bank.

[lammergeier] 18/11/2024 10:36

Boboty


In July of this year, IQE announced plans to IPO its wholly owned Taiwan business on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. It has engaged with the local regulator to prepare for necessary filings and aims to list in Q2 2025. It will continue to control the business via a majority stake post-IPO. We regard this as both a defensive and an offensive move. It is defensive because capital raised from this IPO can further shore up its balance sheet. It is offensive because it is a great way to unlock value and fuel strategic investments. Just as a reference point, if it pulls off this IPO and trades at an earnings multiple close to that of its listed Taiwanese peer, then the market cap of its Taiwan subsidiary will well exceed that of its UK parent. With a roughly 1.5% position, we believe the risk-reward for IQE is well in our favor.

[fuji99] 18/11/2024 10:33

StormClone10: "I'm a bit late to this party" - This is not a party. It is rather a funeral.

[boboty] 18/11/2024 10:27

Iqe are considering selling the whole of its Taiwan operation. Does anyone know how many machines they have over there and what it's worth. I would hazard a guess that compared to our present market capitalization the value of the Taiwan operation is very significant - and that would be one reason " The Board believes there is significant value in IQE that is not currently reflected in its market capitalisation". I'm with the board on this one and think we are significantly undervalued.

[stormclone10] 18/11/2024 10:23

I'm a bit late to this party - who is Sweenoid? Apologies if this is a silly question, all I could find on twitter was a re-tweet from years ago.

[indiestu] 18/11/2024 10:20

The self driving sector is about to get a major tailwind.

[fuji99] 18/11/2024 09:55

If any company cannot withstand competition pressures, it is reaching the ultimate failure.

Zytronic rings the bell.

[fuji99] 18/11/2024 09:52

This is their R & D summary:
"IQE is committed to technological leadership through research and development. We are able to offer innovative new products and technologies that meet the needs of our customers. Throughout our history, R&D at IQE has been strengthened by the company’s organic growth, global acquisitions and strategic partnerships. Today we are recognised as technology leaders and IQE continues to attract the brightest and best talent in our industry."

If R & D does not deliver an output that meets the need of customers, (nobody buys it as proven by their decaying numbers), they are just wasting their time before they close shop.

[longtallsally] 18/11/2024 09:51

The company don’t want to attract a bidder and I don’t think a hostile bid is likely due to amount for shares owned by ii’s but Lombard will drive what happens here now. They may well be thinking, get IQE over this period and then lead IQE into the arms of a suitor as clearly the company is worth over £150m to someone in this sector given how much it would cost anyone to build an operation of this scale in three key market locations. It may seem hard to believe right now at £96m MC but I would predict a bid could easily be in the £200-250m level.

[american idiot] 18/11/2024 09:46

Fuji99....Agree

I think competition has caught up here.

IQE are a million miles away from shareholder returns. They're too small a company and have no pricing power at all.

What happens when the funds from the next equity raise have gone ?

They would be better to put themselves up for sale.

[fuji99] 18/11/2024 09:37

Maybe the business model has reached a stagnation point where it cannot make any money anymore - thus the non-stop decay in share price ?
If there is no growth anymore, the business model has failed.
This is now just a research lab where the majority of projects end up with a question mark because there is no innovation anymore.

[indiestu] 18/11/2024 09:37

Below is an interesting piece that drills into the semiconductor supply chain outlook and why we are experiencing this multispeed recovery following the extraordinary covid upgrade cycle.



Putting the revenue disappointment aside.

As expected Cubitt recruited to carry out the difficult task of a strategic review and continue the restructure/optimisations. This is now underway and we can expect it to be ruthless as he has no historic allegiances in the company.

The term of the convertible loan is not yet know. Granted Lombard Odier take on some risk but it is likely they get to snap up a 10% stake at what could be a knock down price as the restructuring plays out and the market recovery gains momentum into 25/26.

Bank seems happy. Market has not exactly puked this morning. It could perhaps be viewed as slightly positive as we now have clarity following all the weeks of speculation.

[bulltradept] 18/11/2024 09:02

Sweenoid's a Twunt of the highest order.

Many knew that when the price was many multiples of what it was years ago.