Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[lammergeier] 06/7/2019 10:30

Regasclockwork- probably most of the big buys at the 45p level were not real buys but

the hedge fund shorters such as CRISPIN ODEY'S FUND,GEOFF OLDFIELD FUND and

COLTRANE ASSET MANAGEMENT buying back in.


Twenty years ago a placing was easy to do ,with all shareholders willing to

participate to enable the company to raise more capital and thrive but now with


huge financial shorters working against the flow its difficult to make headway


and raise funds without having the share price decimated.Even the huge M & $ has


been struggling with 9 % of its shares been shorted and its share price fallen by 20%.


I am amazed that Directors of Public Companies do not work together to put


pressure on the regulators to eliminate shorting or restrict it to blue chip


companies with large market capitalizations only.

[tomduck] 06/7/2019 10:24

If any of us were really clever it wouldn’t be just trading shares bought at 43 and sold for a decent profit but the whole lot (over a million for some we assume) then reinvested down here. That would be the most clever scenario. Hindsight shows £1.50+ was never cheap as chips but hopefully it will help focus the mind when we get back there in a couple of years to pull the trigger

[gavbro0] 05/7/2019 20:35

......Damn...

[sf5] 05/7/2019 18:29

Indeed - and the share price is now back to May 2017 levels.
But I stand in awe and doff my cap to our favourite poster's impeccable ability to time his purchases and sales.... I don't have the trading nous to acquire that, sadly.

[regasclockwork] 05/7/2019 16:52

Hi sf5 ref your post 27077, certainly a 'rip-roaring-ramping' post from Sweeney there that you brought to our attention. I think IQE's share price may have been around the 150p mark following the 'totally bullish IMS'. Here is a snippet:

"Ok let's all get over yesterday's momentous reaction to a carefully crafted, totally bullish IQE IMS. It's like the market has been asleep with regard to this company and has been suddenly awoken from its slumber, by activity that's been obvious to some for years." -End-

Well, we've had another 'momentous reaction' since then - back to 43p.

Maybe it was a 'totally crafty' and 'carefully crafted' bullish IMS? and I think after waking up from its slumber, the market has now gone back to sleep. The Institutional buyers holding 3%+ certainly seem to have.

[pal44] 05/7/2019 15:40

Totally agree 1D is a shadow of 2D whilst 2D is shadow of 3D logically 3D can be shadow of 4D so it does exists !

[horneblower] 05/7/2019 14:30

I'm already using 4D. It's called aging.

[picobird] 05/7/2019 13:57

Hope no one is waiting for 4d sensing because they will be in for a long wait 😂 unless of course they are prepared to travel to a pararllel universe that works in four dimensions. However any four dimensional object traveling in our space cannot be seen directly only the shadow of that object. Hope that helps to clarify the problem that the police currently have with their sensing cameras 🙃.

Stumbled on some AMS videos coincidentally just now. They are rather slick suitable for ‘big screen’ advertising.

[adejuk] 05/7/2019 11:56

pal
do you think crooks mistakenly started selling their iqe :-)

[sweenoid] 05/7/2019 11:23

Nope, mass Face ID is hit and miss because it DOESN'T, include 3D sensing ! and DOES NOT use VCSELS.....if it did it would be virtually 100% accurate ;-)

Work it out
S

[pal44] 05/7/2019 11:06

could this be the cause of drop in share price today ??
In the press today Police and security forces around the world are testing out automated facial recognition systems ?? circa 80% accuracy well if it catches the bad guys its pretty good I would say ..

[suffersnofools] 05/7/2019 10:36

AdejukNot necessarily.What needs to happen is for forecasts to be met for a couple of periods. There is nothing the brokers and institutions hate more than misses. Golden rule is under promise and over deliver. Once management can demonstrate they have a handle on forecast growth and rebuild investor trust then market sentiment can improve rapidly. We know they are well positioned to meet future demand, but due to current sector turmoil they have no negotiation strength for supply side pricing which impacts margins disproportionately.I have to confess I didn't expect an opportunity to get back in again here in size, however I feel we'll need a proper market capitulation to make the stock genuinely undervalued again to attract strong hands back in. Add In shorters closing out and I'd anticipate a v-bottom recovery from the lows. I would look to start accumulating below 40.

[adejuk] 05/7/2019 09:04

it's going to be a long road back

[mhassanriaz] 05/7/2019 08:53

Thank you Neil. I agree with you and for that reason I started my research on the web but not this board. VALEO order is quite material it would be nice if we can research & share authentic information on this board. I don't rely on one person information as many do on this board. No offence to anyone.

[suffersnofools] 05/7/2019 08:47

Couldn't agree more neil100 - BB research is bad for your wealth.Read the excellent reports done by Edison and take it from there. SP at 58p support which is the 200 day MA on the monthly chart. It wicked down under this level last week but managed to recover to sit above. If buyers don't come in here then trendline support from the 2009 lows is around 25p

[sf5] 05/7/2019 08:39

This board has a neat balance between the grounded, slightly cynical, accountant-types focusing on commercials and the blue-sky, imaginative types.

I started out towards the latter but serial disappointments pushed me half-way to the former camp. I do recall AR mentioned at the vcsel iphone launch in autumn 2017 with a weird video-clip of someone chasing a fuzzy bouncing ball of light around a room. It didn't strike me as a killer-app at the time and I still fail to see any huge uptake in AR apps since.......though I haven't been looking specifically. Likewise I fret that 5G revolution seems to be taking off without a transformational impact on IQE so far.

sweenoid to give him his due has been consistently in the blue-sky camp, eg this post from July 2017:
"courtesy of Sweenoid on ADFVN chat

My only post for the day
Apologies to those that read these rather long entries, for the repetition, but some of these facts, 'guesses' and opinions are worth repeating.
I reiterate I don't follow day to day SP's or forever look at monitors-I am only interested in the big picture, which in my book reads 'big profits' so traders look away now and bypass
If you are remotely interested in my views of why yesterday's IMS and share price increase was only the beginning, of a long success story that will make us much more wealthy, make a cup of tea, relax and chill

Ps agreed with sheep-herder's comments on cREO and most everything else on IQE
Ok let's all get over yesterday's momentous reaction to a carefully crafted, totally bullish IQE IMS. It's like the market has been asleep with regard to this company and has been suddenly awoken from its slumber, by activity that's been obvious to some for years ;-)

This is why it's going to get better, this is why momentum has only just started, and amazingly to make this ditto shorter I am not even mentioning the huge potential of cREO, Solar, CMOS , Full service wafers etc etc, let's cut to the chase!

IQE are a 6 strand business, the primary earning strand - wireless , has sustained the company through its high Capex/acquisition/ R+D cycle, it's a great earner and growth is being maintained at 5-10% ( mainly due to Skyworks and Qorvo) , but it's low margin business. IQE have been relying on 1 strand and 2 big customers to survive whilst all the business ventures kick in.

My predictions
By the end of FY 2018 photonics will overtake wireless as the main revenue earner and then propel forward at a growth rate of 25-50% year on year - that's conservative folks, believe me. Photonics is a HIGH margin business. The demand for VCELS will be exponential driven by an innovation cycle started by Apple and propagated by ALL the other major smartphone companies. AR( augmented reality ) is the new key area for Apple , they are spending a fortune in being number one in that arena- all to our advantage, everyone else will follow.the wonderful thing is that VCSELS have SO many growth area opportunities-witness the next iPhone and new ranges of cars that will be jam-packed with them.

Competition - of course it exists, we know for a fact that every year Taiwanese companies try to ' steal' IQE's wireless business by cost- cutting , they don't succeed, IQE has become THE Valued, reliable go-to supplier. Work out why, I can't be.bothered to go over it again but even in today's throw-away world, quality, reliability, dependability,performance and customer service still do count for something, that's why IQE is not only maintaining , but also growing business at the expense of others with their very biggest customers - it's a fact NOT a fiction.

As for the VCSEL market where the IMS confirmed MULTIPLE, MULTI-YEAR contract wins, we simply have the best technology, 18 months at least in front of competitors, the barrier to entry for competitors even when they are at last able to offer 6inch wafers ( IQE are the only company that can do this) will be very very high. 6 inch wafers offer huge advantage in terms of production and efficiency and performance. Finisair are likely the next with a 6 inch wafer but they won't be able to produce enough volume for 6-12 months at least ( read their reports-I do) by that time they have to go through validation and evaluation ( takes months and months), serious competition is coming but in investment terms it's light years away.IQE OWN 80 % of the outsource VCSEL market, I would guess they will supply significant volume even into vertical suppliers- they simply have NOT got the capacity to produce the volumes of VCSEL wafers that will be needed, we are going from literally zero to huge volumes here- overnight, with its Capex spend on increased VCSEL reactors in 2016 , IQE positioned itself sweetly to beat the opposition in 2017-2018 , hence their multi year, multi company wins, AND in a demand run business with limited supply, Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations is still apposite ( sorry, I AM a historian these days) . IQE as niche and pivotal player will be setting the price that others simply have to pay to get in the game-it's a simple law of economics and supply/demand.

There are 4 amazing thing about IQE is the future, over and above what's already stated.
1 their indium phosphide business supplying fibre to the home, metro and data centre markets will continue its huge momentum - the demand in the high end area's like 100GB is insatiable and likely to remain so
2 MOST amazing is that the BIG OPPORTUNITY the biggest, highest revenue earner is just starting to take off-RF power using GAN on silicon will simply be HUGE , the market is massive and growing exponentially. I predict within 3-4 years this business will even outpace photonics. It's simply mouth- watering, it's not fiction, its fact and it is going to happen. Just like photonics and VCSELS , it's a concept that people don't get, if they did they would be buying massively into the RF power suppliers like IQE, most will wait till it's blindingly obvious, we here as investors in IQE can do it now and proverbially milk the market,we just have to be patient and buy cheap.
3 The advent and emergence of 5 G and the propagation of IOT is bread and butter to IQE, we know from the CEO that the company is and has been involved on multiple fronts in the 5G format from its very inception. 5G will literally be a revolution in digital enablement and performance, it's coming, it's going to be huge and IQE WILL be a major player- go work it out :)
4 in the 2015 and 2016 AGM's the CEO waxed lyrically about the opportunities for VCSELS in 2017 the proverbial has hit the fan, he was right. BUT at those AGM's he also was even MORE positive about IQE's ability to make $$$ in the front-end FILTER business, using our new patented cREO technology. This year 5 weeks ago in response to my question, he strongly reiterated his confidence that as they were working with major 'partners' that success in this huge $$$ market was coming and would start ramping up at the 4G level, not having to wait till 5G. He was right about VCSELS , if IQE pull this off it will quadruple REPEAT QUADRUPLE our wireless income.
anyone remotely thinking that the share price rise we have seen here cannot be sustained is short- sighted, it may take breaths and pauses and have some dips to test the weak holders , but the TAM ( total available market) and SAM (serviceable market) are almost beyond belief.

I have been telling the same story for years, no one was listening initially , that didn't bother me as I bought+++ at what now seems ridiculous levels-just MONTHS ago, people at 30p, 50p , 80p all thought they had 'missed the opportunity ' , missed the 'proverbial boat' they were naive and just couldn't see the opportunities available. They believed something that got less cheap was expensive, just because it had doubled in price, I have done very well in the past. I know all about 'value' being confused with share price ;-)There is absolutely no difference at today's SP,you may see it go up and down short term , but in a year or two IMHO and DYOR the share price is likely/ inevitably given the markets being supplied to be substantially higher.

In the meantime keep an eye on IQE's customers, some named , some it's obvious to work out, watch how they are doing , look at their charts, it's a great way to work out why IQE will,prosper- Skyworks,( just last night they announced another blockbuster quarter and a brilliant bullish forecast - they are our biggest customer, the area's they see the biggest growth in , is where IQE is or will be supplying them ;-), just read if you want their conference call transcript from last night


Qorvo, Lumentum, Oclaro, Raytheon, Malcom , all are reporting soon, I would be astonished if the vast majority don't deliver excellent forward forecasts......with IQE inside ( although none of them will say that)

Very happy days
S"

[owenga] 05/7/2019 08:28

Last weekend's Huewai news gains on Monday now fully reversed in the share price Bloody irritating!

[adejuk] 05/7/2019 08:02

ano ky day?

[adventurous] 05/7/2019 07:58

mhassanriaz - the cost of qualification etc... then hit with lower/delayed orders because of Trumps trade war games - so cost are distorted but profits will climb disproportionately relative to costs as production ramps up.

So at circa 26% on VSCELS in H1 to +40%.

[neil100] 05/7/2019 07:09

If you want to research IQE read through all of their reports not bias bulletin board posts!

[mhassanriaz] 05/7/2019 00:26

I wish we could sell as many as we like to cover OPEX. If you listen to TP's interview it will become clear. IQE has massive capacity to satisfy market needs and this came at a cost. Therefore, we have not hit full capacity to cover costs and lets not forget when supply exceeds demand buyer has more power to bargain currently chips inventories turnover is high. TP did mention we can acheive economics of scale with the given advancements and Reactors at hand.

[suffersnofools] 05/7/2019 00:09

You can sell as many VCSELS as you like but if you don't make a profit from it where is the investment case?

[tomduck] 04/7/2019 22:54

The rumour about lack of Face ID is solely for the cheap Apple phone for the Chinese market.