Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[yankeekraut] 22/7/2019 19:13

Am curious, as to the timing of todays 2 RNS. Are they gonna shock the market when they announce the trading update, but reference these RNS / changes to the board, claiming these steps will prepare the company for 2020 and beyond... (whatever that menas)....could be a head-fake; remember, you can never simultaneously watch both of the Magician's hands.

[regasclockwork] 22/7/2019 18:25

A couple of snippets from the update on 21-06-2019

"IQE is operating in an increasingly cautious marketplace and has very
recently received a REDUCTION in FORECASTS from a number of chip
customers, in Wireless and also in Photonics, impacting anticipated
revenues for the second half of FY2019."

"As a result of the above and with the expectation that uncertain market
conditions will continue in the short-term, IQE now expects to deliver
revenues in the range of GBP140m to GBP160m for FY2019 at prevailing
exchange rates (consensus GBP175m)."

"This is a LARGER IMPACT than the previously guided risk related
specifically to Huawei, due to the far-reaching impacts on other
companies and supply chains that are NOW BECOMING EVIDENT." -End-

So, the consensus for FY2019 was GBP 175m and now IQE is forecasting £140m to £160m.

That paints a pretty grim picture to FY2019 and the H12020 will almost certainly be no better as the impact of Huawei continues to weigh heavily on us. Not all IQE's fault, but a lot of it is and you can't blame Trump for where the share price is today.

[tomduck] 22/7/2019 18:18

and the laughable thing is whatever he’s written is voted up ;)

Constantly chopping and changing your investments Is rarely a formula for success...

[lord loads of lolly] 22/7/2019 17:44

adejuk - make up your mind! First you claimed to sell a significant portion of your holding following the Huawei warning. Then you admitted it had been a panic reaction & that you bought back in (at a lower price presumably). Now you seem to be panicking again and seeing no good in the company. Either sell out completely & opt for a quiet life or hold and see what happens. But please stop the random panicky posts, as they really won't help you or anyone else.

[adejuk] 22/7/2019 15:49

if this were a fight the ref would have stopped it months ago or the corner would have thrown in the towel
iqe has nothing to fight with
mcquigan v lewis

[regasclockwork] 22/7/2019 15:11

Hi SNF, not sure whether you can read the following due to 'The Filter Factor'?

Whatever, the last placing did indeed go off well at 140p, but will those institutions be fooled once more into making a further 'investment'? Maybe at 30p? They could get nearly 5-shares for each one purchased previously.

Another snippet from Dock's report - 22-thumbs-up and well deserved.

Dockenfieldman25 Jun '19 - 12:57 - 26877 of 27230

"There was plenty of charm by the directors and a positive presentation from Drew Nelson. T Pullen provided a explanation of Friday’s news and the take away is that IQE are transitioning from a US to an Asian supply line." -End-

The cost of transitioning from a US to an Asian supply line will not be cheap - a few million £'s presumably. And, IQE has already told us that due to the Huawei set-back, we have lost several customers. Even if the Huawei problem is resolved, these customers may not return. Presumably they have found alternative suppliers?

Cash must be flowing out far quicker than it is flowing in so if Edison's estimate of IQE having NET DEBT of £14.7m by year end comes true, that fund raise that you mention may well be on-the-cards.

[sspurt] 22/7/2019 14:48

Looks like the new chairman is making things happen. I can't help feel Drew's position is also short dated. A pity but life moves on and the company's interests are paramount.

[suffersnofools] 22/7/2019 13:36

A fund raise is always possible - the variable factor is at what price. The last placing was excellently handled with almost no discount to market. The problem now is if they HAVE to raise funds they will likely have to bend over and take it on the price.Like I say, not a given, and hopefully the BoD can confirm soon that they don't need the cash, but then why change brokers, given the excellent job they did previously?

[regasclockwork] 22/7/2019 13:05

A snippet from a post of mine on 24-06-2019 [IQE 56p - few days later 70p]:

"For Full Year 2018 IQE had £20.8m cash."

"In January, Edison estimated that for F/Y 2019 cash 'could' be down to £0.1m."

"I thought that was bad enough, but today their revised forecast is for a NET DEBT of £14.7m."

"I believe I'm right in saying that the 'revolving credit facility' was earmarked for new 'machines' if and when needed? A loan facility can't be compared to cash in the bank."

"A placing now looks almost inevitable [IMO]. One for 'question time' tomorrow? The AGM that is on 25-06-19." -End-

Well, I was wrong there in my, "A placing now looks inevitable" as this statement came from the question being asked at the AGM the following day.

Thanks to Dockenfieldman for this from his 'excellent' AGM report [a thumb-up from me at the time]. Read on:

"Also there are no plans for another fund raising but to increase the HSBC credit facility (not because it’s needed but just prudence reasons)TP expects growth to mean IQE will be positive cash generating but no timetable was given." -End-

I think IQE may have realised that if they went for another fund raising, they might have been 'laughed-off-the-stage', hence the alternative in the increase in the HSBC credit facility.

If they have a change of mind now and decide to go for a fund raise, it might have to be in the region of 30p to 35p. If it's offered to us, I'll take some myself as that price sounds like 'fair value' as things stand today.

[meijiman] 22/7/2019 12:39

Let's hope for better times ahead.......

[meijiman] 22/7/2019 12:21

This company needs to learn the cardinal rule of under promising and over delivering otherwise management credibility will remain shot. Can't help thinking that previous fantasy optimism was to serve a purpose.

[lpavlou] 22/7/2019 10:59

Interesting appointment. A fund-raise is not possible until they can evidence new orders or a return to growth. A possible take-out or strategic alliance is a more likely reason for the appointment.

[dr_smith] 22/7/2019 09:53

"Trading on China's new Nasdaq-style technology board began on Monday and got off to a solid start.

Most shares on the so-called Star market, operated by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, surged on debut."


I assume they could have bought direct from NASDAQ before, so don't know why they should surge, though I know Chinese gov are hot on controling outside interests.

Above also intriguing given US/China trade war.

You'll like the next bit..
"Semiconductor firm Anji Microelectronics Technology was among the best performers, with shares shooting up more than 400% in morning trading. "

..again, thought provoking against Monday morning gloom.

Dave

[desflurane] 22/7/2019 09:40

With the drifting share price are all the recent changes to facilitate a takeover?

[pal44] 22/7/2019 09:02

yup IQE is taking some beating it drifts down every day . The new folks on Board have to work harder to rectify the decline.

[grity] 22/7/2019 08:52

Noting from the AMS chart our indirect customer, they’ve more than doubled since January the 2nd we’ve done the opposite.

[suffersnofools] 22/7/2019 08:20

In my experience the most common reason to appoint a new broker is to gain access to their clients for a fundraise.If I was in the Co's position currently I would use the current weakness to get everything out in the open, revise forward guidance and give themselves a chance to beat forecasts next time around.

[sweenoid] 22/7/2019 07:47

I am always amused when companies don’t actually mention that they are dropping/ replacing a NOMAD, in this case Canaccord Genuity is replaced by Citi and Peel Hunt assume the ‘lead role’. Obviously Tim Pullen was unhappy with Canaccord. Personally I don’t think the Nomad makes any substantive difference

Howard Williams has been a great servant but frankly given IQE is a global company the travel requirements between Taiwan,Singapore, UK and East and West Coast USA for a man ‘getting on’ must have been too much. The new ‘roles’ / promotions will hopefully incentivise management.

An interesting week ahead if you know where to look
S

[nickwild] 22/7/2019 07:18

2 RNS this morning

[1mthead] 22/7/2019 00:23

Just watched that Edison/TP video. Something that has bothered me for a few years now is people who begin every answer with "So..." It winds me up and reminds me of marketing/sales reps at CES.
Anyway, the substance was not much better, "medium to long term...blah".
Glad I'm out and watching, rather than in and worrying.

[picobird] 21/7/2019 06:22

Trump’s war on Huawei risks hobbling US innovation


(Lumentum mentioned in the article)

The Trump ban does not include (from what I understand) shipments to Huawei as long as the added value from the US does not exceed 25%. As the IQE wafers are shipped to Taiwan where Win Semi add the VCSEL part & the Huawei phones presumably assembled in China then the chips supplied by US chip companies are unlikely to exceed 25% in total value. So even in the event of Trump reversing his decision yet again on Monday shipments should not be affected. IQE will continue to ramp up in H2 2019.
Let’s hope Lumentum have a representative at the White House on Monday !