Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[beermat1] 02/7/2019 23:20

Good grief Charlie Brown !!

[geraldus] 02/7/2019 23:09

https://email.edisoninvestment.com/2PWO-WLBQ-142GNGLDDD/cr.aspx

[diplomat65] 02/7/2019 23:00

How do we access Edison TV Geraldus?

[geraldus] 02/7/2019 22:49

TP interview on Edison TV if not already posted.

[suffersnofools] 02/7/2019 17:52

James - This is the crux of the issue. No one doubts the technology or the increasing demand going forward. What the market needs to see is the Company executing a commercial strategy that can profit from it! The problem with addressing huge growth markets is that as you state, they rapidly become commoditised driving down margins......sounds familiar.

[jamesrowe] 02/7/2019 17:09

One of the AGM slides says "5G opportunities secured". These nice-sounding words mean nothing as far as I can see.... we want to hear that "5G orders have been secured"!!

Does anyone know what happened to the "optical add-on" for VCSEL wafers (excuse my lack of correct terminology) which started a few months ago with a small preliminary order?

It is frustrating that a company that claims to have been a leader for many years in many areas of compound semi-conductor wafers still struggles to make a profit at a time when you would expect that many of these products had not yet become commodity items. Surely some of these markets will only become more competitive with time... It appears that the combination of high fixed costs combined with long lead times for reactor purchase/commissioning/qualification and the need to VERY carefully balance capacity with utilisation means that it is easy to be unprofitable and easy to get knocked off course when the environment changes for whatever reason.

I had to smile/grimace when I read that in IQE Taiwan there is a "Capacity plan being generated for next 1–3 yrs". Hang on, they seem to struggle to know what capacity they will require in 3 MONTHS time!! :-(

[tomduck] 02/7/2019 16:14

Suffers, I agree it could be a toss of a coin, bonds would suggest a recession and the geopolitical landscape is obviously poor. However IQE could be one of those stocks that still prosper far ahead of the market, but of course to say for sure is difficult and i’m aware there will be bumps in the road ahead...I know many who have gone defensive.

I don’t think this is the bottom of the cycle but it isn’t the top, rather somewhere inbetween, although with the prospect of IQEs particular products being exponentially in demand moving forward. IQE will still need to take advantage, that’s more what we’re betting on, hopefully the improvement to the board will make this less of a gamble than in the past

[sweenoid] 02/7/2019 15:56

Is it beyond your ‘ability’; to link your posts Properly ???- see my post giving advice on how to do it a few posts back

[suffersnofools] 02/7/2019 15:54

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/43fbeb9e-05ce-4b94-8d98-4ab50d9b5409https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/semiconductor-makers-stop-singing-the-blues-51557536422Not my interpretation of a cycle bottom. IQE has completely missed the huge sector rally of 2019. As stated in the article you either believe the market is pricing in fresh expansion in 2020 or the market is failing to account for looming recession and the warning signs coming from the bond and commodities markets.Coin flip I guess :) I've gone defensive but that's just me.

[cotswoldsparky] 02/7/2019 15:52

AGM presentation is on the website



CS

[sweenoid] 02/7/2019 15:37

Thanks for that video link picobird, I am the only one to give it a thumbs up so far ??? I think you edited it in, just in case I will give picobird’s link another ‘airing’



As you say it’s a very simple Q&A

However he encapsulates what IQE ‘does’ clearly and concisely, more importantly Tim Pullen comes across very well. From previous YouTube ARM videos he appeared presentable and knowledgable, the sort of guy who can get his message across in an agreeable manner without at any time ‘grating’ or seeming boring.

Certainly I would be impressed as someone new to the company, even if I obviously ‘ain’t’ ;-)

Another sign that the company is getting much more PR aware- very welcome, let’s hope he and Drew Nelson are used to full capacity.

Some might not remember, some might even not know, the whole Semiconductor industry whether ‘compound’ or not is CYCLICAL in nature, especially for ‘supply side’ companies like IQE, the BIG money to be made is to invest when its at its bottom ( now) not at the top :-)

S

[aphrodites] 02/7/2019 14:36

SuffersNoFools

Regarding the Wave count much depends on the period of time you are looking at and how much you are smoothing the waves.

Going back to 1 March I can see us in the 4th wave which could take us back into the 90's and as high as 100.

[stoneme] 02/7/2019 11:41

Gatwick has been trialing this for a year. . I experienced it in route to Cancun in May. It's definitely going to speed up security.

[picobird] 02/7/2019 11:11

Regarding the HSBC credit facility, Geoffrey Ainsworth had his own corporate finance services company so I would imagine Bank contacts present no problem for IQE.
I am also convinced that a predator is circling but tbh would rather the present board continued building more business.

If you have a spare ten minutes T Pullen has done an executive video for Edison’s. The info you should already know, so no new news.

[suffersnofools] 02/7/2019 10:54

Yes - I try and get a feel for all sides of a story. For most people a buy and hold strategy is the best policy but that assumes you picked a good entry point! I made my money on IQE between 2p and 20p and have sold and rebuilt 2 large positions since then - all in my SIPP. The current reality is that the share price has been in a strong downtrend since 2017 and I don't buy long term positions in downtrends. Anyone who's been building a position of any significance since then will be underwater. I have a buy order in at 52p as support on the daily. 63p is the next support level on the hourly, but as I say these are small positions, £250 pp max.

[tomduck] 02/7/2019 10:44

Suffers, to not at least give some credence to charts would indeed be stupid, same goes for fundamentals, I believe where there is no news company or sector specific then it’s often a good marker for resistance and support. When there is good or bad company or sector specific news then charts kinda go out the window.

Circa 70p looked likely to be resistance after the run up from mid 40s and if I was more disciplined and my livelihood relied upon it I may have traded out and back in but if IQE had confirmed one of the two new qualifications then I’d have been scrambling to get back in. I always focus long term because it’s becomes too distracting otherwise, and it’s the long term winners that tend to transform ones life, not earning a living out of it.

[suffersnofools] 02/7/2019 10:17

Aphrodites - No probs. You have to develop a thick skin talking TA on ADVFN ;)

I'm also a big EW fan. Not sure if crypto is your bag, but my count gives me a potential Wave 2 ending at the moment.

I hope IQE turn this around, I have a soft spot for a company that has given me my financial freedom. I'm just very bearish on the supply chain issues at a time where the wider markets look so fragile.

[aphrodites] 02/7/2019 10:04

Suffernofools

Many thanks for your response to my post.

I am not sure how old you are to remember, but many years ago the Bank of England undertook a detailed study of technical analysis in relation particularly to “Sterling̶1;. Their conclusion was, technical analysis had little bearing on movements in the markets. You will probably find it in one of their old Bulletins.

At the time I had a very good friend who was well known in the City for his technical analysis expertise. When I was in charge of a dealing room, I wanted to employ him but his Merchant Bank employers were paying him far too much for us to attract him. In the end, we employed a young inexperienced T.A. who knew his business well and at one-third of the price!! So, I am not at all dismissive of the science.

I am intrigued by T.A. and like you, I use technical analysis, mainly the Elliott Wave, to assist my investment decisions. Having looked at the fundamentals of any share, and if I like them, I then look at the chart. If it meets my criteria, I then buy or sell. Very rarely, do I short because one never knows what the cost will be if you get it badly wrong!

I apologise if I appeared to scoff at your chart analysis this morning. I too would not be buying at the opening levels of today. But I seriously believe IQE is in play to be taken over and it is dangerous to be out at the present time. If it retreats to 65p I shall be taking a few more on board.

All the best.

Aphro

[suffersnofools] 02/7/2019 09:46

The tech is great and will no doubt become ubiquitous but if margins are so thin that you can't make money how do the Co benefit?

[a0469514] 02/7/2019 09:11

Facial recognition at airports - follow up.It is all on Google. Atlanta airport/ Delta Airlines was the world's first. Next up is Detroit.Xylos

[spursspurs] 02/7/2019 08:53

I thought his response was to Dr Smith?

[suffersnofools] 02/7/2019 08:48

APHRODITES

Q 'Does anyone know if CFD's and share bets deals have to be reported? I appreciate in many cases long positions in both will more than likely have been backed by outright purchases.'

A It depends on the size of the position. Smaller positions are absorbed by the provider and/or the risk is offset by their nett long/short positions. Larger positions will be backed by the underlying security.

'I note Suffernofools chart warning, but I would take no notice of that. As I have said many times here, charts are a very helpful tool but they should only be used as a guide and should not dictate one’s position taking.'

I agree to some extent. I use TA for entry and exits. But having been trading for around 20 years now I find charts have a far higher success rate than 'fundamental' analysis. I flagged up the initial chart warning signs when the price was around 140p and I sold most of my long term SIPP position. I've held IQE since 2001.

I'm trading in and out around these levels but wouldn't be buying in any size in the current climate. Warning tend to come in threes and as the Company are at the mercy of geo-political factors outside their control I want to see further clarity on forward guidance first. The cardinal sin I see on this BB is viewing IQE in isolation without stepping back and viewing in the context of the wider market. IQE still isn't cheap and I like bargains :)