Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[count chris] 09/4/2014 18:39

Just spotted this update fron Evils diaries:

"I bought back my Iofina (IOF) short since I am emphatically told that the management are OK and will deliver. This has cost me circa £35,000. It happens."

Let's not stoop to gloating since we had enough of that recently from the shorters but it's another sign that sentiment has turned.

[cyberbub] 09/4/2014 17:49

By the way my speculation about 20 quid a share is clearly blue sky long term thinking, a lot would need to go right for that to happen... but IMO there is a scenario that would see that sort of level... the chances of it within 5 years?... maybe 5-10% chance IMO....NAI

[naphar] 09/4/2014 17:33

Bogg1e
Re this:
"PS dont forget that at 8k bpd maximum and 5k ppm maximum a mini could outproduce IO2 by 400%. Added to which you can build 4 minis for the price of one standard IO plant."

Steady on, that 5000ppm site only has low bpd

Still could be a nice mini site though

[crosseyed] 09/4/2014 17:18

bogg1e,

In your post 18676, you say "Added to which you can build 4 minis for the price of one standard IO plant."

Do you have a source for that statement, please, and also what are you assuming the cost of a standard IO plant to be?

Thanks,
c

[crosseyed] 09/4/2014 17:03

I would urge anyone who has not yet seen the slideshow relating to what is described as a presentation dated February 2014 should do so. To repeat the link (from Iofina's website)...


Apart from re-affirming information about what is already known, p14 on Road Ahead 2014 is particularly revealing. I'm not sure that the points are exactly commitments but they must surely be strongly indicative.

"Ramp up sales of raw iodine" catches the eye, along with the achievement of first external sale of raw iodine completed in January (p13).

The RNS of 17/12/2013 has already informed of full supply of iodine to IO Chemical from in-house production. The presentation indicates an increase in derivatives production through further shifts and, if required, through additional production capacity.

It has been posted that production capacity could be doubled through an extra shift which would presumably be achieved with no additional capital investment. That would certainly mean a big ramp-up in revenues and profits, not least with the much lower cost of produced iodine, also augmented by direct sales of raw iodine.

c

[superg1] 09/4/2014 16:57

napoleon 14th
9 Apr'14 - 16:04 - 18674 of 18676 0 0(premium)


Yep, reading the lunchtime posts I was wondering if iodine isn't a halucinogenic!

I suggest one step at a time, a penny a day, & we'll soon be at last summer's price which was already rich...for now.

So you are going for £19 in 5 years, penny a day plus 75p.

I am only joking of course.

Mr B, going on recent posts you will have gone £72 mill earlier.

[bogg1e] 09/4/2014 16:56

Oh yes, I'm sure he doesn't need anyone to hold his hand.

My B, ahaar you mean current value should be 120p. That on 5.5p 2014 eps is a p/e of about 22, which is about right for a share of this calibre. Totally agree. Splendid.

[mister big] 09/4/2014 16:56

I never said I would sell at 1.25 , I believe the current value is around that level until we see further progress from the company .
I certainly see this as a good medium to long term play

[rhwillcol] 09/4/2014 16:54

Bogg1e: maybe best not to speculate too much. I'm sure mister big knows exactly what he is doing....

[bogg1e] 09/4/2014 16:50

The point was, that from Mr Bigs perspective, with 4.5 million shares at 50p, why would he sell at 120p? To me 120p is the price we shall probably see when IO6 has come online, so my question is, why would someone sell just at the point when the roll out is proving successful, albeit delayed? With 2 mini plants to come thereafter, which would push us towards the 1000 ton per year mark? Additionally, come september - december we shall have an update on the plan going forward. Although my expectations are lessened i still expect 2015 to see 1 plant per quarter as well as 2+ mini plants. To me this means that at 50p, Mr Big could effectively double his initial return 100% every 6 months.

start = 50p
IO6 = £1
minis + 1000 tpy = £1.50
mid 2015 - 8 plants + 3 minis = £2
end 2015 - 10 plants + 4 minis = £2.50 etc etc

PS dont forget that at 8k bpd maximum and 5k ppm maximum a mini could outproduce IO2 by 400%. Added to which you can build 4 minis for the price of one standard IO plant.

[beercapafn] 09/4/2014 16:39

Mr Big.. just a hedge, but if you buy the kilo of iodine today (to eat) it would be sensible. On the other hand, 80 mill profit and a kilo at say $ 100 a kilo, not realy an issue.

[napoleon 14th] 09/4/2014 16:04

Yep, reading the lunchtime posts I was wondering if iodine isn't a halucinogenic!

I suggest one step at a time, a penny a day, & we'll soon be at last summer's price which was already rich...for now.

[testuser123] 09/4/2014 15:58

SG - reagarding the chart it's referred to as the chart of dubiousness for good reason :) Joking aside I'd expect it to take a while to update. The data for it ultimately comes from a clearing house and Enismore will have to settle with OM before they can then settle with whoever lent them the stock in the first place.

[malachey] 09/4/2014 14:59

Orslega:

'am expecting to see Ennismore completely out of their small remaining short...'

As someone pointed out yesterday there is no requirement to disclose under 0.5%, so we will not know when Ennismore close the last of it. Though actually I suspect they have already.

[sportbilly1976] 09/4/2014 14:46

80p, then £1 as resistances from prior support levels on the way down.

[freddievas] 09/4/2014 14:44

Come on guys, lets get real. One step at a time.

[bogg1e] 09/4/2014 13:37

I'm talking 5 years out, which for me is fine because i bought the share to hold for 5 years or until they get bought out.

[uppompeii] 09/4/2014 13:33

Oh please dont start talking about £20 a share because the share price is back to where is was two weeks ago! Has no one learned anything?

[sportbilly1976] 09/4/2014 13:32

£20 a share and we can have a nice IOF-holders party then mister big? :)

[mister big] 09/4/2014 13:28

Clearly since I went out to lunch you guys have been smoking something. !!!
20quid a share - £80m for me !
As one poster said I'll eat my hat if the shares go above a £1!!
I'll eat a pound of iodine if we see 20!!!!

[bogg1e] 09/4/2014 12:45

cyber, indeed a share price that high would have to be backed by a roll out of at least 6 plants per year from 2015 onwards as well as minis of course. But that is doable.

[cyberbub] 09/4/2014 12:43

Yes Boggle, £20 a share (assuming no dilution) doesn't seem out if the question, a market cap of USD 4BN... it seems inconceivable now, but if the company delivers and gets a Nasdaq listing where p/es of 20 even for mature companies are common, that would imply earnings of only USD 200M p.a., if iodine prices and margins rise then that could be as little as say USD 350M gross... optimistic maybe, but by no means unfeasible if we had reached IO20 or more by then!NAI

[orslega] 09/4/2014 12:35

good to see sentiment change here and so quickly....even with the so called 2013 profit warning, roll out delays, 50p was still way too low, hope everyone else followed AB lead and filled their boots...(I did before him : D )

...so 50% gain in such a short time will see the trading around the edges, expected, healthy traders out and investors in. Just pleased we have had a nice tonic in the share price before the good news arrives...Chair/IO4, IO5 producing, IO6 progressing....Water news, Prilling plans firmed etc

am expecting to see Ennismore completely out of their small remaining short and reversal into long soon position for another killing on the way up...

....and the sun's shining! : )

[superg1] 09/4/2014 12:35

Hard to gauge re 20p (H20) re water as it has gone from oversold to major supplies gone are shares tight. Water positive news takes out iodine fears, which some are investing for anyway at these prices.

But then what is 20p re the actual revenue potential. First things first, lets get to water news one way or the other. If positive, timelines and costs to build. Costs will be high if there is any intent to have significant hot water capability, but who cares if hot water is $5/$6 pb revenue.

[che7win] 09/4/2014 12:35

Bogg1e,
Next year p/e of 20 is anywhere from 170-200p, such is the growth, glad to see the market is catching on. It is a figure we can grow into over the next 12 months.