Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[mister big] 04/4/2014 17:01

strangely iofina has closed up three days running - it seemed to have a habit of rising then giving back all the gains!
seems to hold on to the gains better!!
ah weekend, and will have a nice one!!

[che7win] 04/4/2014 16:55

Agreed,
we have disruptive technology which will turn the 'closed-shop' iodine market on it's head.

All there for the taking.

[nevik2] 04/4/2014 16:14

This looks like I'll take a punt on this, despite the fact I had to look up wiki to see what the uses for Iodine are. I like the fact they have new tech and are in a position to use it. I doubt those producers in Chile will just throw the towel in all the same, it's never that simple.
It does look like the only way is up for this company, well nearly, I still need some conformation the downward slide has come to a halt.
Thanks to the knowledgeable posters here that have drawn my attention to Iofina and it's unique points that look to give it an edge.
Further reading does look like they are in a good position to cash in on their advantage.

Of course I'll come looking if you are all wrong :-)

[hew] 04/4/2014 15:43

Che, I believe your sentence:

"I think our progress from one full plant 18 months ago to 6 full plants by next month isn't reflected in the market cap."

is the understatement of the year so far!

I have been in IOF for more than two years now and imo they are doing extremely well. From nowt not long ago! And a global force in iodine a serious prospect. (Whether called IOF by then is another matter.)

[bocker01] 04/4/2014 15:35

Yes Che, the progress is astonishing. And the tech is patented! And the leases are signed up! No possibility of new entrants. The company is learning and developing continuously.

[che7win] 04/4/2014 15:20

bocker and MB have it spot on,
The market looks forwards, not backwards it's all priced in IMHO. I didn't expect it to fall below 70p if I'm honest, scarcely believeable when our full size plant production is about to double.

Weather related issues last quarter are behind us, spring and summer are the best months for brine production.

I think we are just about on track for 700 MT this year, but a lot of catching up to do and of course we have 70% production versus 30% to come H2.

Run rate by end of year should be nearer 1200 MT, so that will be more than 50% up from this years 700 and then we have extra plants next year on top.

With 6 plants in production by end of H1, production will look a lot less lumpy and quarter on quarter comparisions will look good.

I think our progres from one full plant 18 months ago to 6 full plants by next month isn't reflected in the market cap.

[bocker01] 04/4/2014 15:19

Ammons, I think everyone's' anticipating an extremely poor Q1. It's been pretty comprehensively leaked. No surprises there. Should be in the price..... as just about everything else negative is. The shorters are in the pooh now. Besides there are richer pickings elsewhere......except for those that are least imaginative and are simply hanging on the coat tails of those who are cleverer. Of course the cleverer ones have their exits contracted or are already out. Naturally the hangers on will be slaughtered in the end . As happens from time to time.

[phoenixs] 04/4/2014 14:42

mb, which as you have stated makes the share price for IOF very cheap on forward revenue/earnings. World economy looking to improve from here on in as winter recedes and iodine prices may well follow.

[mister big] 04/4/2014 14:40

doubtful! but i welcome the cheap stock!!

[ammons] 04/4/2014 14:38

In post 17798 c7w is looking for 50 T for Q1 2014 and bocker 40/50 T. No doubt the other thread (all quiet at the moment) will pounce on the poor numbers and hope to initiate another (what should hopefully be final) bear raid. We'll see.

[mister big] 04/4/2014 14:32

i don't think its been leaked - its self evident from the RNS - the shares are looking to the normalised rate when all 6 sites in production and north of 1000MT a year - the news is already out and the results / rns will reflect the new reality. its roll sleeves up and start to make it all work better ( just like any business) when purring sweetly - then look to increase production with new sites!

[bocker01] 04/4/2014 14:26

40 or 50 tonnes in Q1 will be about it. Sad. But 4 times that in Q2 with 5 plants doing 2 or more tonnes a day. Shame about the first six weeks but all in the past now. At least IO 6 is due for completion within a couple of months. Should end the year with a run rate over 1000 pa. Maybe 200 more with minis.

[ammons] 04/4/2014 14:24

Indeed many here have alluded to a mediocre to poor set of iodine production numbers for 1st quarter 2014. Has this info been leaked to soften the blow when the results are actually published?

[phoenixs] 04/4/2014 14:14

engelo, I tend to agree with you and I really do not expect much for the first quarter. We know that there have been delays to plants due to a number of factors which I expect to hear have been resolved by the time the rns comes. I suspect that we will have a much better 2nd quarter and who knows even H2O permit.

[engelo] 04/4/2014 14:01

Neddo:

Q: When is something going too happen here?

A: next week.

Could we have this in the header please?

Seriously though I don't think IOF can crowd about 27 potential news items into the results RNS. Next week would be good timing to set the context for 21st imo.

[phoenixs] 04/4/2014 13:04

SG. Thanks,

[superg1] 04/4/2014 12:17

Pheonixs

Application correct means you have the land lease, water out-take point beneficial use sorted etc etc.

Since then the rns says water legally available, and engineering sound.

Legally available is a common point in hearings. All that will mean is that the use fits the laws and the relevant river basin has sufficient allocation left to meet the level of the application.

Some basins (like small tributaries) are closed as it's considered the amount of water available from the allocation pot is already used up.

So imo after a lot of digging around the meeting and outstanding point was around confirming the actual size of the application is necessary I.E, can IOF sell it all, do they have the genuine customers and need .

They wouldn't want the mayor not being able to water his cabbages when he asks for 1/2 an acre foot, to find bad old Iofina took the allocation to levels that he can't get a permit.

So a process of ensuring the proper 'policing' of the allocation of water for genuine levels of use not fantasy.

Getting it right first time I suspect. Not necessarily needed as there is a 12 month use it or lose it policy, but it can be extended as Culbertson proved for unused amounts.

They also have the issue of ground water use which they don't really want given to the oil industry plus temp permits still in place re irrigation water used for fracking (rules prevent that, but they brought it in as an emergency measure)

So yes a lot of politics which have no place in law. But more like cautious considered allocation of water knowing the boom is going to grow.

So I believe the 60 days was about converting any outstanding customers to letters of intent even though Hal want more than the application, as well over-subscribed would help the bureau make a solid decision and evidence to explain to the major (buying cabbages at the store) why they allowed it.

As Bob Shaver said in one such local political row on the news.

If they meet the criteria by law we have to award the permit.

So IOF have said, if they refuse it we are off to a hearing. That says to me that IOF have met all the criteria and by law should be awarded the permit.

Hence I'm with Mr B re it being awarded, and if not straight away it will be awarded at the hearing. How can the bureau award similar permits (have done and sizeable, but exclude IOF).

If my logic is right after some digging. Then it's not about if they award it, but how much they award. That consideration is in the flowchart of the process online.

E.G they could award half and IOF take it to hearing for the full amount.

The bureau will be cautious due to the boom, but have awarded permits in full virtually no questions asked before the boom took grip.

In law if you have set a standard, it's very hard to defend it later for no reason.

Thankfully the end to all that debate should be on us near term and we can worry about award/depot building or hearing when the result is known.

That's why I say at these prices it's a buy for iodine if the price gets hit (hearing), and a buy if the price doesn't go too daft if the permit is awarded.

[neddo] 04/4/2014 12:09

when is something going too happen here?

[che7win] 04/4/2014 12:07

Hey,
once we're all finished buying, we can get more bullish on prices ;-)

Nothing priced in for the disruptive technology we have; we have potential to become an iodine leader, but we will be taken out long before that.

I agree though, plenty of hard graft to get things on track.

[bocker01] 04/4/2014 11:57

Good point Phoenix, if they fail to grant it or cut it back, they will end up having to grant it all. Plus there'll probably be hearing costs and egg on face!

[phoenixs] 04/4/2014 11:47

I can really only see one reason why the water permit will not be approved by the Montana authorities and that would be political. They may not want to be seen to be taking the decision. Even if they refuse, then there will be an appeal to the courts and the merits of the case alone will be taken into account. If that happens the full grant of 80,000 bpd could be granted instead of a previously negotiated one which starts at maybe 50,000 bpd.
SG, I seem to remember you stating that the application would not have gone ahead unless the application was in order to begin with. Is that true?

[spideyyy] 04/4/2014 11:43

SG...thanks for explaining

[superg1] 04/4/2014 11:35

Spidey

He said no knowledge, bonus etc.

All depends on whether IOF do hot and cold water etc etc, there is a significance in revenues and margins between the two.

Hints are anything around $1 pb for cold and $5 to $6 for hot pb.

But waiting to see whether they get it, if they get it will the bureau issue for less, will the customers want hot or cold. A hot water depot costs a lot more than a cold water depot. It will prob be mixed.

Then prices can vary, depending on how far the water haulage is, that's why you will see some at 60 cents pb and some over $1 as the haulage cost has to factor in. E.G. a customer won't haul X miles more to grab 60 cents water, the economies don't work.

On a Chesa presentation I saw haulage costs of $1 pb per hour re haulage.

On the Armstrong (hot water specialists) site I saw figures of 3 cents per gallon per degree of temp raised with 70 degrees stated as the average needed ($2.10 cost).

The key there is when a well is fracked you need the big and guaranteed supply, not driving all over the place to various small set ups trying to get the water together.

Many small depots close towards the end of the year as their allocation has been used up (some got hit with big fines for going over). That is no use re contracts for companies like the size of Halliburton and that is probably why they target IOF as a water supplier, before anyone else does.

[mister big] 04/4/2014 11:25

it feels like the right level for this share is around 80p to 90p, while we wait for news on progress - the annual results and other stuff is mainly discounted and led to this being over sold - i don't agree with numis at 136p but a reasonable target is to see it at £1 plus in six months , and then hopefully all sites in production with over 1000 MT of iodine flowing and then start to look at a careful expansion beyond io6 - that should be the plan - think iodine prices rooted at around $40 a Kg but high cost producers may have to push up prices or reduce production. a gentle drift to $50 a KG then helps iofina make good money....nice share to tuck a way!

[chumbo] 04/4/2014 11:23

That makes sense