Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bocker01] 07/4/2014 16:06

Che7win, this share price has certainly been too good an opportunity to miss. As regards your figures which clearly exclude most upside, I tend to agree. Though my only proviso is in respect of general sentiment. Sentiment is always so important. This stock's taken a bashing and I think that it will recover to the levels you suggest as time moves on. However, if/when a few of the upsides start to happen, sentiment may well also change - leading to a particularly strong rebound.

[beercapafn] 07/4/2014 16:03

Che 7. I was piling in at £ 2.35p.. still in but this has crashed my very succesful run. Now hurting badly, heads down, and holding my ballocks to wipe losses in 3 years. Hopefully.

[che7win] 07/4/2014 15:37

Bocker,
No, definitely not assuming no more growth, we need to have >20% growth next year and future years to be rerated to forward P/E of 20 on next year.

Without any further roll out past this year, we are worth around 110-125p.

I would say we need three plants next year and confidence of future years expansion to get to 150p. We could get there a lot quicker than we think IMHO.

Anything can happen; increased efficiencies from current plants could be substantial for instance. I hold by my view that io2 could produce 500mt on its own, with the caveat being that brine supply, brine concentrations and temperature would need to be the same as last May.

A 25% rise in iodine prices to $50kg would also engineer a substantial rise in our EPS of up to 50%, that's why 50p per share was irrationally low.

If we get a water business, again, the upside is not factored in right now, even assuming a JV and funding from a partner.

This stock feels cheap to me below 100p, I've put my money where my mouth is and bought from 50p up to 90s these past few months, I'm very happy with all those prices.

[bocker01] 07/4/2014 14:46

Does your 180p assume that no more plants are built other than IO6 and the 2 minis Che7win? Or would it be more if more plants are built and the management rolls up its sleeves re getting them to work and selling the product?

[che7win] 07/4/2014 14:42

Interesting cyber,
The prospects here are equally enormous.

P/e 20 this year is 100p.
On next year, 180p, but we need to grow into those valuations, the company needs to prove the growth.

[bocker01] 07/4/2014 14:41

Won't belong before it's back over this mythical £100m market cap level that some people have been harping on about.

[beercapafn] 07/4/2014 14:27

Cyberbub. That is a great story. ! Gives heart to PI that realy understand a company.. just to keep it real what has it achived since 2010. ?

[cyberbub] 07/4/2014 13:40

Che7win I will never forget in the panic of late 2008 the company CIU, perfectly healthy conglomerate at 200p, the funds started dumping indiscriminately towards the end of the tax year and pushed it all the way down to 17p, yes 17 pence! A lot of PIs including me bought heavily at those levels... 2 years later it was at 500p !! And we trust these people with our pensions...

[cyberbub] 07/4/2014 13:37

Chart suggests could push towards 80p before resistance? Touch wood NAI etc etc

[woodpeckers] 07/4/2014 12:53

Hi parthus, good to hear you 'held on', still convinced this will more than make up for our AFF losses. Hope they do as I never did reveal to Mr Woody the true impact they had on my portfolio.... Like to think I'm doing him a favour by only telling him on a need to know basis ;-) He should be in a good mood tonight. :-)

[che7win] 07/4/2014 12:33

Roundup,
That's how funds work, coming to the end of year, they don't want their clients seeing some stocks that they own, so they dump them quite often; prices don't come into it.

All out before financial year end, meanwhile near 40% gain since and a lot further to rerate.

We are only at prices from two weeks ago.

[roundup] 07/4/2014 12:29

I don't suppose OM will be too concerned about losing all that money by selling off far too cheaply. Not, since it is not their money they are losing.

[malachey] 07/4/2014 12:16

And getting stronger all the time Noli. You can certainly tell that Old Mutual are all done.

[noli] 07/4/2014 11:47

L2 looking strong, it looks like 70p plus today

[che7win] 07/4/2014 11:36

Joe,
Incredible prices were available from Mr Market these past few weeks.

5p EPS this year is my expectation on around 700MT.

Next year, should be able to get to 1200Mt, about 70% growth from this year, we only need 6 plants running for 12 months to get over 1000mt, a couple of mobiles on top and we get to near 1200.
If we assume 70% growth in EPS based , that would be 8.5p, but remember that core overheads such as admin expenses will rise slower than revenue and gross profit.
I would say 9-10p EPS achievable next year assuming some growth in iodine prices and the gearing affect.

I expect efficiencies gains from current plants will provide a surprise uplift also.

So 100p for a P/E 10 next year, most companies are priced on year ahead expectations. As I've said before, anything below 100p is cheap to me right now, hence I've been buying heavily these past few months.

Water surely worth 20p minimum if we get it and assume a JV funds it.

No wonder it's rerating so fast, now above 20dma.

[parthus] 07/4/2014 11:22

Been here awhile.. holding.. kept highly amused.... however I feel it incumbent upon me to tell you all that I noticed Johnny doing a " wave " similar to Richard Nixon when boarding his plane to obscurity...

Hello again Woody... tomorrow is Tuesday.. is Mr woody still playing tennis in short shorts... are you still playing away from home ?

[joestalin] 07/4/2014 11:16

SP now on £68.5p - so I am back in profit.
May I thank all the Armageddon mongers who, so kindly, talked this share down to 50p.
Without the tireless work of these selfless angels, I am sure we would all be much worse off. You know who you are. Thank you again.

[alfie4048] 07/4/2014 10:23

Apologies.

[beercapafn] 07/4/2014 10:11

Alfie.... calm down Dear. Thanks.

[spike_1] 07/4/2014 09:59

Why the 28th - it's my Birthday ;0)

[alfie4048] 07/4/2014 09:50

My info comes direct from HMRC, not a bloody newspaper.

[cyberbub] 07/4/2014 09:47

Was a commitment in the last Budget. Stamp duty will be abolished from 28th April.

[beercapafn] 07/4/2014 09:47

The Times on Sunday said as of this morning. Has any one bought today to confirm that. ?

[karmastuartra] 07/4/2014 09:32

Why Alfie?