Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[malachey] 05/4/2014 12:57

Why tread water when you can sell it!

[uppompeii] 05/4/2014 12:28

Unpredictable though Mister Big as to a short term reaction, it has to be accompanied by some damn good noises looking forward.

[mister big] 05/4/2014 12:00

All of this is known !
The worst winter in 30 years - shares look forward not backwards .
All these reasons are why the shares collapsed. I expect consolidation around 75p and then tread water until we see progress.

[ammons] 05/4/2014 11:50

December and January "wiped out".....!! That leaves Feb and March, 59 days @ 1T a day, if we are lucky, therefore 50 odd tonnes top whack. Maybe even bockers 40T. I have been sufficiently softened up to the extent that I am prepared for shocking Q1 production numbers! Hope the forward looking statement confirms IO4/5 are both fully operational, the fracking disruption has ended plus lots left in the kitty......... Gulp!!!

[superg1] 05/4/2014 08:48

Re-reading that it does seem December and Januarywere wiped out. io2 did stop late last year as reported due to residue build up. last reported production. 1 mt per day.
Reports of brine disruption thrown in due to fracking disrupting brine supply. So Feb March left. Knowing they were on 1mt with plenty of chaos q1 is easy to work out re figures mentioned. Io4/5 not contributed and a point that the number of staff they now have while we wait for io4/5 to start (if not already started)

[orslega] 04/4/2014 23:36

production - not entirely weather related......disruption caused by oil companies fracking increased drilling...there is abundance of brine waiting to be tied in...ongoing fine tuning with operator will reap dividends for Iofina : )

RNS 29th January 2014

IO#2 and IO#3

Production volumes at IO#2 remain consistent. Despite extremely cold weather in the area downtime in December and January has been limited as a result of appropriate planning and proper execution by the operations teams. Iodine production levels at IO#3 are coming in as expected when the volume of brine received from the Operator is as anticipated. However incoming brine volumes have been affected recently due to the Operator's significant fracking and drilling activity in the area, which is affecting overall iodine production levels. The Group is working with the operator to minimise brine volume inconsistencies amidst the ongoing fracking activity and looks forward to updating the market on progress in this respect. The increased drilling is a positive indication of the operator's view to continue expansion and the Company expects newly drilled wells to be tied into existing and planned IOSorb™ locations potentially increasing brine volumes.

hxxp://www.iofina.com/perch/resources/29january2013operationalupdate.pdf

[che7win] 04/4/2014 22:56

Crosseyed,
I believe it was the oil and gas fields themselves that froze over, if they don't produce oil they don't supply brine.

No idea on timescales or impact, only that it was a frustration mentioned to me in passing.

[freshvoice] 04/4/2014 22:27

I thought the bad performance was because the oilie turned off the brine to use it for fracking, not the temperature.

[bobsworth] 04/4/2014 21:59

Interesting thoughts on the Q1 expected output data. Time will tell!

Here is a summary of the mean temperatures in Jan and Feb in degree centigrade for the city of Oklahoma. Tell me if Iam wrong but they do not appear to be as bad, temp wise, than we were led to believe.

Lets hope this is reflected in the Q1 data and they are better than expected.

Mean Temps degree Centigrade
Date Jan Feb
1 5.0 0.0
2 -3.5 -2.0
3 -0.27 -3.2
4 7.3 0.3
5 -4.0 -6.9
6 -9.0 -10.0
7 -2.0 -6.9
8 2.0 -2.0
9 1.5 0.0
10 7.3 -3.9
11 7.8 -3.8
12 11.0 0.3
13 11.0 3.11
14 6.6 10.3
15 3.8 8.0
16 7.8 12.1
17 5.5 14.0
18 7.8 12.0
19 6.6 14.0
20 10.1 14.5
21 2.0 8.0
22 1.0 12.0
23 -2.1 9.0
24 -6.3 4.2
25 8.0 5.3
26 8.2 -1.2
27 1.0 1.1
28 -6.2 8.0
29 -3.1
30 4.7
31 4.8

[crosseyed] 04/4/2014 21:39

che7win,

Thanks.
I regularly (monthly) observe the Texas RRC production records of Marathon O&G's operations in the Texas Eagle Ford play (in order to monitor and forecast the performance of a UK-based AMI partner). I have not detected any abnormal decline in over 120 wells. Given that the brine, at least to IO#2 and IO#3 is delivered at quite a high temperature by pipeline, I wonder if freezing temperatures, over quite a short period of time, would significantly affect supplies. You may well be right, and certainly prudent.

c

[che7win] 04/4/2014 19:28

Crosseyed,
My figure is guesswork based on disruption to brine and the worst weather in 20 years.
Some oil and gas field froze over, outside IOFs control.

[monty panesar] 04/4/2014 19:26

If you look back over the last few years there is a strong correlation between what Ennismore short and TW then writes about. By the time TW writes about it the price is usually near the bottom.

[crosseyed] 04/4/2014 19:25

engelo/naphar,

Thanks. I too had taken that Jan RNS warning regarding IO#3 into account, reducing predicted output for Jan and Feb to 8 mT each month in my spreadsheet with an expected "normal" (though probably conservative when running to plan) production of 14 mT/mth.

As for re-processed iodine, I haven't included that in the quarterly figure as compared with Che7's estimate of 50 mT for Q1. But it is surely important regarding the overall estimate of IOF's activities (inputs/costs); presumably the 5 mT/mth would be utilised by IOChem in the manufacture of derivatives thereby leaving about 25 mT requirement from other sources (entirely in-house now, apparently) assuming 30 mT/mth processing capacity.

Perhaps Che7 has further information on which his prediction was based which is why I raised the query.

c

[naphar] 04/4/2014 19:25

And EK just eats his loss?

[superg1] 04/4/2014 19:19

So let me get this right. TW got EK to short to help Ennis close.

See I told you.... no morals tut tut.

[engelo] 04/4/2014 19:02

crosseyed: the weather was indeed very bad, worst for 20 years I read somewhere, particularly in February which affected both IOF and the supplier and delayed completion of I04 and 5. Lost about a month imo.

Operating plants are another matter and I would hope that they weren't too badly affected by this.

HOwever there was this nasty in the 29th Jan RNS re I03:

"Iodine production levels at IO#3 are coming in as expected when the volume of brine received from the Operator is as anticipated. However incoming brine volumes have been affected recently due to the Operator's significant fracking and drilling activity in the area, which is affecting overall iodine production levels. The Group is working with the operator to minimise brine volume inconsistencies amidst the ongoing fracking activity and looks forward to updating the market on progress in this respect."

Looking forward to updating us? Well they haven't.

Feel that Che7 will have taken all this into account in compiling his numbers.

[naphar] 04/4/2014 18:49

Crosseyed
we all exclude the recycling output from output estimates, because the company also exclude it . Why? Because its part of the Iofina Chemical business which is a different division to the extraction from brine business.

It's not only weather that impacted Q1 production, I recall there were also issues with brine delivery due to fracking disruption in the area.

[engelo] 04/4/2014 18:38

ammons: size probably opportunistic imo, perhaps took out a large seller(s).

[crosseyed] 04/4/2014 18:38

ch7win,

Re your post 17798 (responding to a query from me), I hadn't picked up on your estimate of 50 mT in Q1 for IO#1-3 although I now see others have. May I ask why you think it will be so low? Those 3 plants were producing "> 30 mT/day" in mid-December, according to the RNS, which is about 30 mT/mth; I had estimated a figure of 100 mT for Q1. I understand that there might have been some delays due to the weather but was it so bad in Oklahoma? For 3 months? During which construction work on IO#4-6 continued?. On top of that, I'm assuming 15 mT from re-processed waste.

c

[engelo] 04/4/2014 18:35

jackster: thanks for the info on Ennis. Closed over half their short yesterday (3rd). So they're giving us a helping hand, but not too difficult for them. Must say I expected more fireworks.

FCA site looks good. Wonder if it reports on the same day as they get the info of the transaction? Shortracker that I've been watching hasn't been updated yet.

[engelo] 04/4/2014 18:12

nevik2: welcome. This isn't a punt though, it's a battleship under camouflage.

[ammons] 04/4/2014 17:50

Ennismore have taken profits and running the remainder in case water permit is refused or coming results are a total shocker, even worse than expected??

[jackster193] 04/4/2014 17:35

Looks like Ennismore have started closing, as of the yesterday they are down to 0.57% from 1.30%

[florence10] 04/4/2014 17:34

Mr B,our Action Man!
Forget Arnie The Terminator!
We have Aaron The Exterminator!
Whose Ars-on fire today?
Shorts or Longtails?