Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[noli] 20/11/2013 20:52

Rock Star, great post. 20 Nov'13 - 19:25 - 11428 of 11431

The one factor I would highlight is that now that IO#3 is confirmed as operational the whole rollout programme becomes self-financing and cash within the company should start increase from about February onwards.

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It funny you mention the above and quite a statement, it was always said iof needed 4 plants, so to do it in 3 is fantastic news.

Please post more often, :-)

[rhwillcol] 20/11/2013 19:58

My take on RNS Today:

Positives: IO3 is now on stream and producing; it is an automated, computerised plant, thus enabling lower running costs; October iodine production set a new monthly record, due to increased brine stream at IO2 and to production improvement at IO1; the production from these two plants "alone" will increase to further new records; then IO3 production will further add to this total; construction is continuing on IO4 and IO5; looks likely that IO6 will be positioned close to IO2.

Negatives: I think we had thought that IO3 was already plugged in and producing (OK, so a couple of weeks later than we thought); a little slippage to IO4 and IO5 completion due to tower delivery delays outside of IOF's control, but company is working on that to prevent this happening in the future (OK, maybe delay of a month or two).

One just gets the strong impression of a great management team who are doing a fine and competent job of increasing iodine production, with pretty well everything under control. All their ducks are in a row, and the patient investor here will do really well "in short order." Those invested here are indeed very fortunate to have come across a company with such quality people at the helm, and a company with such attractive growth prospects - second to none in my opinion. So I'm not at all concerned about "slippage" of a month or two: it will make no difference to the patient, and it is the patient who will be the major beneficiaries here.

[the librarian] 20/11/2013 19:34

We are all critics, it's safe from the armchair. The majority of shares that I am watching are up and down like yo-yo's, patience will be rewarded.

[dontshoutatonce] 20/11/2013 19:33

SG, Azalea, etc, They do not use frac tanks in the construction of their plants. They use glass-lined tanks for feed tanks and recirculation tanks. The equipment that is most at risk of a delay are the towers, pumps and the blower. They are working to resolve previous issues by exploring new manufacturers for all the listed equipment. As you know, IO1-IO3 are made of titanium. IO4 onwards will be a combination of titanium and fibreglass. This means that once they've found and arranged everything with the part suppliers things should speed up. So far, an average of one plant per 6 months is v poor. I guess that is why they now sound more confident. I am not piqued by the lack of stats though I too have been frustrated as I believe and, as has been said, it is surely best not to let the competition know the facts.

[rock star] 20/11/2013 19:25

I have read most of todays posts and the ambitious expansion plan targeted for this year have slipped a few weeks into the New Year due to the delays in delivery of the towers. The main picture has not changed.

The one factor I would highlight is that now that IO#3 is confirmed as operational the whole rollout programme becomes self-financing and cash within the company should start increase from about February onwards.

I had been hoping the next update would mean analysts would start to increase their price targets above the current 230p levels. Unfortunately I will now probably have to wait until the next one when we should get an update on water, a production update or news on the commissioning of IO#4.

I suspect the negatives are behind us. The company has come a long way in a short space of time.

[nevmyers] 20/11/2013 18:47

Mixed feeling on here as I expected there would be, I been to busy today to even check the shares until or read the RNS. Im not going to bother speculating what should or should not have happened anymore with IOF best just to wait until im back in profit and then decide what to do then.

SG

Did you get my mail the other day I tried what you suggested and still nothing

Regards
Nev

[monkeymagic3] 20/11/2013 18:44

Hitsha - what do you mean let down on water, helium and oil?

What do you think they have promised in this regard?

[hitsha3] 20/11/2013 18:36

Last six months it's been really awful. I bet they are going to let us down again with other things ie , water, helium, oil, new plants, pods.

[hitsha3] 20/11/2013 18:29

Poor RNS, and everything about the company seems bad right now. If you are not going to be able to build 6 plant then they shoul've said it and notlet the investors down, poor managment too.

[bobbyshilling] 20/11/2013 17:39

BAG, if iodine is $45, and we assume costs to be $15, then that equates to about $30 left, say £20 sterling per kilo produced. How long will it take for IOF to get to 3000mt per annum? That will mean £60m to IOF per annum (less taxes and other miscellaneous costs which I am not quiet sure about, but may already be in the figures above, again, not sure). Add water (assuming we get licence), say another £10m at least, and you can see how we can become very big very quickly.

I don't know how the above can be translated into a projected SP, (anyone?), but when it is, I don't think it's gonna break our hearts.

[noli] 20/11/2013 17:13

Escape, not every business can be in the water business, you have to be a water company. As for first mover advantage, all companies have to supply customer names and percentages. IOF will imho have no problem selling water, the application entered has customers waiting for the iof water permit to be granted, if not it would have been knocked back.

I dont think its taken any longer than it should have done in the time limits supplied. We will just have to wait and see.

[escapetohome] 20/11/2013 17:02

Not good with figures SG, I keep the water business to the back of my mind, thinking of it as a good back stop/ bit of a parachute if things slow with Iodine.

Its taking its time, the competition is already up and running I believe, so we have lost first mover advantage. Not sure but think many businesses want to start supplying the water.

The market isnt ascribing much value to it at the moment. Will it produce a reliable income stream or more variable income - hard to quantify? As a new well is bought into production, the need for water to keep it going after time presumably decreases.

How many customers have expressed an interest to IOF to buy water from them and what are the quantities? When I know that figure then I can ascribe a realistic value.

[bobbyshilling] 20/11/2013 16:55

BAG, as you rightly say, worst case scenario is still good, but I think it will just get better and better with time.

[superg1] 20/11/2013 16:49

Escape

Just out of interest, what value, if any do you put on the water permit/depot. One follows the other.

Half the bpd at half the price mentioned gives S7.3 mill.

BUT when IOF applied for 10k acre feet that gave clue , as you need to have half of that covered by intent to buy letters. We know they have 100k bpd covered by Hal, they have others too quantity unknown. The first depot is 80k bpd.

Why thy split it down is obvious to those that read the guidelines.

I'm just trying to gauge views on that one, should such a matter appear, and progress to a depot.

[baguette] 20/11/2013 16:45

Bobby, Yes I do keep thinking about what you say and getting overexcited. Thats why i have to find a way of calming myself down, as previous expectations these last 6 months have been thwarted by reality.

I am now in "expect the worst and hope for the best" mode. By the way - the worst is not too bad anyway

[phoenixs] 20/11/2013 16:42

Baguette,

IO5 and 6 were to be completed bt year end but not necessarily producing.
I think that the broad estimation was based at the lower end on IO1,2,3 and at the upper end with the inclusion of IO4.

[iofra] 20/11/2013 16:40

Baguette

700-1000 gives a wide spread and did they expect IO5 & IO6 to be commissioned and producing?

Which of the annualised figures I gave troubles you.

[escapetohome] 20/11/2013 16:39

Lets just say if they did revise the run rate - then it would have knocked this share for six. Markets are sentiment drive.

I am on the optimistic side I believe they will achieve at least a 700 tonne run rate exiting 2013.

[bobbyshilling] 20/11/2013 16:39

BAG, I understand your concerns, but I'm doing the maths on IO1-3. We know IO1 was doing 50mt and that figure has almost certainly increased. At 30000bpd and 300ppm, IO2 will be at 470mt. Now it is true that those figures have not been confirmed by the company, but we know that flow rates and ppms at IO2 must be pretty exceptional, because they are seriously considering building IO6 at that location. Also, we have been told that water temperatures are higher, again enhancing efficiency for iodine extraction. This means that IO3 needs to build up to only 200mt by the end of December, and that will surpass 700mt exit figures.

Now, I am only putting 2&2 together, from what we know, and can reasonably expect. This is why I think the exit target is attainable. Should it be the case, then just think of the numbers we could be talking when IO4-6 are added!

[baguette] 20/11/2013 16:36

Phoenixs
"
If they do we are in clover with 3 plants "to spare and "up our sleeves"!!

They say io1 - io6 = 700-1000mt rate
then they report delays to io4, io5 and io6
Now we are to believe they will achieve 700-1000 anyway

Sounds like dreamsville to me

[iofra] 20/11/2013 16:35

azalea - that's no longer current:

Construction continues on IO#4 and IO#5. The tower delivery times have been extended and this will cause the expected completion timeframe to be extended into Q1 2014. The new management team is working with multiple vendors for improved delivery performance going forward. As announced on 31 October 2013 the Group is continuing to evaluate the brine stream at IO#2 to determine the advantages of repositioning IO#6 to a location nearer to IO#2.

[azalea] 20/11/2013 16:32

If the board expects to complete IO#3-IO#6(inc) by year end (just a few weeks away), given the nearness of the event they must be quite confident in making such a statement.

[plasybryn] 20/11/2013 16:32

Am I right in thinking 1000 MT delivers an EPS of c. 13.45p which on 15 times earnings is £2 per share.
Given the market looks forward this is probably a conservative share price target for the near term.
Please correct me.

[iofra] 20/11/2013 16:31

ipax

if let's say IO2 + IO1 at year end are producing 1.25mT/day
and IO3 produces 1mT/day
and recycling adds 0.16mt/day

then the annualised rate (no downtime) is 879mt.

Now I don't know if these figures are correct but they have been mooted and there is leeway in them to meet the 700mT rate.

[phoenixs] 20/11/2013 16:28

baguette, I do not know the answer.
I agree with a lot of what you have said in that investors have the right to ask questions etc. However, unless I hear otherwise, I will assume 700-1000mt p.a
If company now comes back and say otherwise, I will then ask why they got it so wrong, but I think that they will achieve their stated annualised rate with only IO1,2 and 3.