Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[captain_kurt] 20/11/2013 12:40

Iodine production specialist Iofina (IOF) posted record monthly production in October and with news that the group's third production plant has started producing, this record should be surpassed again in the near future. But the fourth and fifth wells have suffered slightly longer lead times on equipment which will push their completion into 2014. We maintain our buy.

[superg1] 20/11/2013 12:36

Robo

I'm all for humour, even the serious posts have had a few chuckling this morning. I enjoy all the debate, with learning curves etc.

We have some Warren Buffet types here, of hold, ignore the noise, and just concentrate on why you invested etc.

Others, a mix of Shaggy and Scooby (constantly on edge), the muppets balcony (everyone works with those type), and the Wile E coyote types, chasing the next road runner news/trades and complete frustration when the plot fails.

Now we expect George to do Jedi mind tricks on suppliers, convincing them to supply IOF the towers instead of other customers making demands too.

[roboben] 20/11/2013 12:02

First, let me say that I am also disappointed by the supply problems. I don't think the current board can really be blamed for that, though.

Further, as has already been posted, GL was not responsible for setting the target of 6 plants complete before year end. That particular burden is now removed.

I did wonder whether the market would hammer us on this and Ennis would be able to get out sub 140, so I'll settle for what we have seen so far!

The fact is that the business is continuing to develop apace. I have confidence in this BoD and the team they have assembled. These delays really are short term. (As frustrating for them as for us, I'm sure!)

Just a thought on a lighter note.

Has anyone thought about the possible reaction among competitors to an IOF release in January that says " Well folks, we met our end of year run rate target."? (Which I fully expect them to do.)

Possibly something like -

Err.. Hold on a minute .. Weren't they supposed to need 6 plants to do that? .. But surely they've only got 3 working? .. What's that? .. Yes, only 3? .. Err .. Houston, we have a problem!!

[joeblogg2] 20/11/2013 12:02

I am down a fair bit as bought £15k over £2+ as I had a savings plan which had matured. Very bad timing on my part but the savings plan had been going for 25 yrs so will certainly give this another year to realise the potential.

[the librarian] 20/11/2013 11:55

I wonder what other Iodine producers think about the update, anyone on here work for one of them?

[escapetohome] 20/11/2013 11:49

Naphar, Dig, SG, Noli, Orslega, Meadow -

Thanks for all your help in sorting out the run rate / production diference misunderstanding that I had.

All much appreciated and this investor is still very much on board and backing the IOF BOD with over 65,000 shares total comitted investment.

[meadow2] 20/11/2013 11:35

If the monthly production for December, 2013 is between 58MTs and 84MTs then that is equivalent to 700-1000MTs per year for 2014, without the possibility of further units in production. This does not seem to be an impossible target but let us see!

[escapetohome] 20/11/2013 11:27

Thanks guys for the clarification problem solved in my thick skull and I will just have back those 4,000 SIPP shares I sold today.

[diggulden] 20/11/2013 11:23

Escape, massive difference between 'produced' and 'run rate'.

Investec are quoting total produced Iodine for 2013, Iofina are quoting the exit rate for 2013.

ie, if no further plants were added in 2014, Iofina are saying the current setup as of end of year would produce 700-1000MT in 2014. Obviously when more plants come online that will increase.

[naphar] 20/11/2013 11:22

escape, Investec are saying physical output of 180mt in 2013 (we did 90 ish in H1). Management are saying expect to be on a run rate of 700-1000 at year end, i.e. will produce 700-1000 during 2014 from the plants producing at year end. Hence the difference.

What's so difficult to understand?

[plasybryn] 20/11/2013 11:10

Good post che7win - 11340
Your exchange with the Co. is reassuring and just what we need to hear.
If you were to read this B.B. just 6/9 months ago you would see how rampish bloggers were, in part encouraged by unrealist Co. statements.

It seems that we will benefit big time, perhaps starting again in 2014 but hopefully based on a lot more realism in terms of expectations and roll out timings.

GLA

[escapetohome] 20/11/2013 11:10

I do understand what a yearly rate is. Admit Im not good when it comes to figures, but I dont need them - I read market sentiment and that has saved me a lot of potential losses.

Just questioning why the INVESTEC quantity is for 180 tonne output year end 2013 but the BOD guidance is for 700 tonne - 1000 tonne year end. Thats all. Simple question.

[superg1] 20/11/2013 11:04

escape

All this time and you don't understand what a yearly rate is. EG. in the May update they were on a 310 mt rate (370mt with recycling)

If they are on 2 mt per day by the year end it's a 730mt rate.


Best wishes, as always, with the next one.

But for the rest, io1 is obviously above .15mt per day from that update, and io2 on a lot more than it was. So 1mt breached no problem imo. If io2 is at full tilt then for the 2 plants we should be around 1.25mt no problem. Add in recycling and they are at a 500mt rate. io3 to now start chipping in.

[noli] 20/11/2013 10:59

escape, your missing the point, iof are not talking 2013 production month on month, its the total exit rate of all plants running for 12 months through 2014, i.e io1.2.3.4.5 +6. the total for a full 12 month with all plants producing.

[orslega] 20/11/2013 10:55

think I read somewhere that at full capacity, IO*3 could be producing close on 700MT pa....by itself?

[iofra] 20/11/2013 10:53

There's nothing to say the run rate won't be in that range.

[escapetohome] 20/11/2013 10:53

As Scruts said, clear guidance on output would have been appreciated.

[orslega] 20/11/2013 10:53

freshvoice - yes but as we know, no specific details have been revealed ie mix and bpd....that's what is needed..the missing ingredient, which we know will be market sensitive (competitors watching closely)

..imo if they didn't think they were going to achieve an exit rate between 700-1,000MT at 31/12/2013, they would have said....of course I could be wrong...

[escapetohome] 20/11/2013 10:51

In other words we arent get any thing like 700 - 1000 tonne output at year end. Thanks for your help guys. I sold a few from my Sipp today to invest elsewhere to reduce my overall risks.

Still retain around 20,000 in my Sipp and 47,000 in trader portfolio

[iofra] 20/11/2013 10:50

Investec calcs probably based on H1 production of IO1 plus IO2 was 92.5 metric tonnes including recycling plus around 91.5 mT if the H2 run rate was 0.85mT/day = 183 mT.
However, since then we have heard that IO2 is on a much better stream and probably producing 1mT/day and even IO1 has improved production. This might take production to over 350mT then you need to add in IO3 say another 40mT if continuous production.

[freshvoice] 20/11/2013 10:44

Orslega
I read that as they need all those plants to be 'fully operational......production rate will be c700- 1000 mt'.

If they only have half the plants how can they have the same production output?

[azalea] 20/11/2013 10:44

IF the current Investec forecast(23/10/12) for 2014 is anywhere near achieved, then I believe the share price should be hitting 200p+.

[escapetohome] 20/11/2013 10:42

Thanks to all -

There is a huge discrepancy then between what INvestec think - 180 tonne output - and what the board has said 700-1000 tonne

Unless the difference is between tonne and metric tonne

[superg1] 20/11/2013 10:41

Scrut

Humour only. What like GDL who predicted the test well would be complete early Q1.

Trouble is they didn't say which Q1. It was obviously a misleading rns as it flew it the face of their own drilling timelines. Boy I had some 'fun' over that one. Lesson learned.

IOF are great at expanding on bad news, and very careful on the good stuff, you think it doesn't frustrate me?. I have found most of it, so know it's good.

But as I keep saying it's in all the news. Extremely high, Hyper, 450mt plus, 50k plus bpd etc etc. So it is all there but spoon-feeding seems required at regular intervals for the impatient.

I think the frustration is more about, knowing the prospects, and the company not shouting it out as we know it to be.

No small oil company anywhere on a wildcat well, in an area where they may wish to grab leases, will want to tell the world about a gusher they have found. Same goes for gold miners, and any other commodity where full leasing is not secured to the finders satisfaction.

Let the smaller Chile mines complete their high capex spending and chasing the game with high opex. At some point it will come crashing in all around them, they will be left high and dry with empty pockets.

E.G.

One miner (future scenario)

'Dear lender you know that $33m you gave us, well we spent it, opex is up, and the price is down, we are loss making so need some cash, can you help, the price is much lower than when we thought of the idea, and opex prices keep going up'

The fact is that lot are probably on the edge, before they execute their plan.

[orslega] 20/11/2013 10:39

escapeto home:

from the interims

"The Board expect to complete construction of IO#3, IO#4, IO#5 and IO#6 by year end. With these plants fully operational, it is estimated that the annualised production rate will be between c.700-c.1000 metric tonnes of crystallized iodine which would see Iofina become one of the lowest cost and largest iodine producers in North America, enabled by its patent protected WET® IOsorb™ technology."

hxxp://iofina.com/perch/resources/2013-interim-results.pdf