Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[microcline] 20/11/2013 09:15

In comparison to some other shares on AIM I have no feeling of dread when reading an RNS from IOF. They have ground breaking technology and will be prone to setbacks. So lie back and chill. There are companies on AIM that compel investors to hide behind the couch when an RNS is issued.

[escapetohome] 20/11/2013 09:15

A delay of a month in construction is completely understandable and no problem in the scheme of things.

Happens all the time in the construction industry, which I work in.

[sandbag] 20/11/2013 09:09

jps,
If the target is still 12 plants by the end of 2014 then I've no doubt they can achieve this target. They now know where any possible delays are (Vessel manufacturers swamped with other work, hook ups from utilitity companies etc,) and can make plans to alleviate these problems in the future. However as several on here have said it's not about number of plants it's about amount of iodine produced and sold. Perhaps they were a little niaive in mentioning the number of plants and one or two people have got this stuck in their minds but I have to say that what really impressed me at the last presentation was the fact that Lance stated they would do whatever it takes to enhancethe share price. If they have to do a 180 turn they will. It's all about profitability. He and the rest of the board impressed me and believe me I can be cynical.

worraps,
I understand that you need to raise some cash soon and need to sell some shares. I will be in the same position when I retire at Christmas so I would have liked the share to be a bit higher at this time but I have no doubt that long term this company will come to dominate the iodine market and the price will reflect this. And, that's on iodine alone remember.

[escapetohome] 20/11/2013 09:06

Like I said I will be extremely happy with £2 by christmas - so no disappointment for me.

[cordone] 20/11/2013 09:04

Warmsun,I've also taken the opportunity to top up again this morning at 160p. Very happy indeed to be able to do so.

[baguette] 20/11/2013 09:03

Just to reiterate an extract from my post 11207 before any RNS news

"I wonder how many believe there will be anything beyond io3 producing this year or that io4 and io5 will be fully constructed if not fully commissioned. Hands up those who believe we will have anything beyond io6 installed by end q1 2014 and again for those who believe there will be a further 6 in 2014 i.e. up to io12

Not many I would wager and probably the same for total iodine output relative to the guesses of several months ago."

O.K. it was spot on and a fairly predictable guess really.

If the delays in io4 & io5 will be relatively short why did management not give us some comfort by saying something like - the plant builds are substantially complete awaiting the towers. It just leads us to assume that once again it is excuses and that the whole construction process which should by now be complete for io4 may only be back at an early phase.

[warmsun] 20/11/2013 09:01

Lib, I have actually taken the opportunity to buy more on this news. This share has taught me not to jump in and out of shares...I am very very happy and comfortable to hold (and add!).

[the librarian] 20/11/2013 08:57

It is a good point warmsun, it is all about patience though and I suspect that the CEO gritted his teeth when he was writing the RNS, failure to meet the first target that was set for him can't feel too good. I don't know about anyone else but there is not any way that I would sell a share on that news, it can only hit the traders if the price drops not any long term holders.

And a good point made by Ansana, IOF moving forwards, Chile going backwards.

[ansana] 20/11/2013 08:57

Chile is going backwards and IOF is going forwards I am happy to be in IOF.

[1madmarky] 20/11/2013 08:56

If the towers were supplied when they were supposed to be supplied. Certainly IO4 would have been this year and maybe IO5. The delay is not the fault of iof, it's life when you have a supply chain.

[longsight] 20/11/2013 08:54

EDIT

INVESTEC note

Iofina (IOF.L)
Iofi na (Buy - TP: 230p)
United Kingdom | Oil & Gas
Buy
IO#3 up and running. Modest slippage for IO#4 and IO#5.
156p 230p
Iofina has announced that its third facility (IO#3) is now producing iodine and
that its first two plants achieved record production in October. However, it
also notes that start-ups of IO#4 and IO#5 are likely to slip into Q1-14,
altogether we do not see this as a complete surprise. Our forecasts were
already more conservative than Iofina's plans and remain unchanged, as
does our Buy recommendation and NAV-derived 230p target price.

 IO#3 producing iodine. The third iodine-extraction unit (IO#3, Oklahoma) is
now producing iodine. The initial batches meet Iofina's quality standards.
 Record production in October. The first two facilities set a new (but
unquantified) monthly record in October. Our forecasts assume total output of
180 tonnes of iodine in 2013E (vs 63 tonnes in H1). This still looks achievable,
in our view.
 IO#4 and IO#5 slip into Q1-14. However, completion of IO#4 and IO#5 is now
likely to slip into Q1-14 (vs a year-end target previously). Delivery of the iodineextraction
towers has taken longer than expected. IO#4 is using conventional
steel towers shipped from the Ukraine which are still 'on the water'. IO#5 will
use cheaper fibreglass towers, manufactured in the US. As the first facility to
use this approach, a slight slippage is perhaps understandable.
 Valuation. Our assumptions were already more conservative than Iofina's
plans. Our 2014E forecasts (and beyond) only assume an additional four plants
per year (vs Iofina's target of 6-8). So we model a total of 18 plants by end-
2016E. At an iodine price of $50/kg, we estimate each adds $20m of value
(10/p share) inclusive of a unit capital cost of $2-3m. This implies a core, NPVbased
(12% discount rate) valuation of 152p. Just two further two plants per
year beyond 2016E gives a further uplift of 75p. This underpins our 230p target
price (note we do not include any potential upside from Iofina's Montana water
project).

[lignum] 20/11/2013 08:52

SG & Others - I've been following this thread for over a year now and the research has been consistently excellent. My thanks to you all.

The RNS this morning seemed very good to me. It confirmed the Company is on the right trajectory. The point at which the year end date cuts across the trajectory will give us confirmation of the financial trajectory but by the time the audited numbers come out this will be history.

The point is where does the trajectory take us. Sometime soon the market should stop fretting about FY13 output and start focusing on FY14 output and Iofina's impact on the market.

Topped up this morning. Keep calm and go for iodine.

[warmsun] 20/11/2013 08:51

I think a large part in the differing opinions on today's news is as to when people actually bought in here. If you bought in at say 40p then you will sit back relaxed and wait for further profits on your shares....if you bought in at say £2+ you will be, I would guess, frustrated.

I am happy to just sit on my shares and await either the take out of the company or the huge profits to be made in the future...but, I can understand some of the frustration of some posters

[captain_kurt] 20/11/2013 08:48

With record production this month and coming months, it seems the management know exactly what they are doing. Supply chain aside

[plasybryn] 20/11/2013 08:45

The problem is not the slippage itself, as yest that is often understandable, it is how it reflect on Mgmt.
Trying to convince us of something that anyone with a bit of common sense could see as clear as day.
It reflects badly on them and undermines all important confidence.
Tell us how it is. Give reasonable expectations and then over deliver.
It is simple.
If they can't get this right what else are they getting wrong.
Let's have a BofD who know what they are doing.

[orslega] 20/11/2013 08:41

the key to focus on here for investors is the 31/12/2013 exit rate....700-1,000MT guidance appears to in tack...with just 3 plants....if that had changed, the market would have been informed (CF was quizzed extensively about the 700-1,000 MT guidance at PI meeting....managing expectation, shooting yourself in foot etc).....the roll out delays appear to be outside the control of the directors......OK Ennismore have gained some more time...

Water news any time now pls, lol

[mikealig] 20/11/2013 08:37

Nothing whatsoever in today's RNS leads me to believe IOF are not going to grow into a very substantial Iodine producer. Simple as that to me!
Bought another 5K shares at 160.75p. Very happy with that.

[jointer13] 20/11/2013 08:33

you know what makes me laugh...we have some so called intelligent investors on here that start to cry like babies over a bit of slippage.

all the important work has been done,the rollout is continuing.albeit a little behind.
and yes we will have more delays in the future. (we are talking about supply chain ffs.)
I would suggest if you cant stomach future delays perhaps this investing malarchy is not for you.

I am happy that io3 is up and running and record production.
the reality is we are growing at a very fast rate.

[supreme mo] 20/11/2013 08:32

Hear what you're saying JPS but its not abiut plant numbers - all about ppm x bpd...As someone said yest you could have 10 io1s in Texas but they would only produce what 2 or 3 would in OK....It's looking more and more likely 6 will go next to 2 - that would be a quick win imo as mist of infrastructure already there.If you're worried then sell...

[1madmarky] 20/11/2013 08:30

Long term argument is simple. Cheapest supplier of iodine by quite a large margin. Equals either new dominant supplier or take over target. Either way it means significant share price rises ahead.

[iofra] 20/11/2013 08:30

IO3 running and producing is a key milestone as it is the first full-scale plant built from the ground up as it were and this sets us on the path for growth albeit delayed.

The RNS provides clarity on the George Lantz statement in the October 31st RNS that said IO3 on line and the difference to that previously on the Iofina website where he is quoted as on line and producing.

'The complex tie-in and the automated computerized integration with the operator's systems were finalized last week and with that approval the brine stream was turned on, allowing production to commence.'

Hence, on 31 October the Lantz statement of producing was incorrect and whatever we think about the NOMAD they were correct to remove it. Any nudge, nudge comments about check the Iofina website statement (now corrected) were also wide of the mark.

Record monthly production as stated is pleasing but unquantifiable as we have not had monthly production figures before - the last official production statement was:

'production in the second quarter totaled 45 tonnes of iodine paste compared with 17.5 tonnes in the first quarter, largely as a result of an increase in overall plant runtime from approximately 40% to 80%. The Company also recorded a daily high of over 1000kgs in the second quarter compared with a high of 695kgs in the first quarter.'

So the market will possibly take time to read between the lines.

[jpsmithson] 20/11/2013 08:26

On Sep 25th they were confident of having 6 plant by the end of the year.
Now on Nov 20th it is only going to be 3. Thats pretty awfull no matter how its spun or whatever excuses are given. And are the towers just a useful distractionn to hide other construction problems/delays.
I predicted that there would be delays on almost every site but this is more dramatic than I expected. 12 plants by end 2014 will never happen now.

[jonnyno1] 20/11/2013 08:25

2vdm, not to put you off but as always it's about DYOR, there is more than enough info on this thread to find the answers you neeed, you just need to do a little work.

j.

[n3tleylucas] 20/11/2013 08:24

Delays are always understandable when released in an RNS, but are always denounced as nonsense if predicted on bulletin boards in advance.

[2vdm] 20/11/2013 08:19

I keep seeing references to IOF on other threads and have been reading some of the posts here and am trying to get my head around it. Am I correct in saying that the reason that IOF is so compelling is that it can extract Iodine and other by products from brine/salt water (which infers that others cannot do). I understand from posters, particularly SG1 (many thanks) about the towers/delays etc. but what is the long term argument for IOF, as it seems I have missed the boat here. Views appreciated. TIA