Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[writz] 24/11/2013 15:23

Titus, that's very kind - let me take a look at my current toolkit, which mainly consists of ADVFN and IncredibleCharts. The latter is just better at holding user information, and since I'm visual, I like to keep all the key data where I can see it. I've done a lot of blind testing, but not with the kind of statistical support you're talking about.

My interest in TA is driven by the need for some kind of objectivity to hold against one's emotional reaction to shifts in the fundamentals. It's also tempered somewhat by the way TA in its popular versions seems to turn into a kind of astrology. Hence, I suppose, why I find Treacy's attention to "chart reading" (vs. TA) helpful at this point. It seems to me that TA done rigorously and well is a kind of crowd psychometric, with the interesting dimension that the crowd knows it's being observed and sometimes adjusts its behaviour accordingly.

You're right, of course: the fact that a commentator is commentating and not playing the game casts a bit of a shadow over his credibility. But someone who can talk about charts and Freud in the same sentence seems like he may have something interesting to say, even if it's not the whole package.

One thing that can be said for the chart itself is that it tells the truth. I'm always aware when I draw a line on a chart that it's my line: it is an interpretation of reality that will change my perception depending on a number of subjective decisions about which price points I join together. Cover a chart with lines and it all looks a whole lot more comprehensible and predictable. So am I uncovering some underlying truth about the price action, or am I simple engaging in comforting self-delusion?

So, yes, very keen to know more about TA!

Hope your fight over Statin breaks out to the upside.

Writz

[festario] 24/11/2013 15:09

Titus, and others.Statins, prescribed in cases of high cholesterol, is an absolute life saver.Research will point you to that fact, although people are often left using them for too long.

[sandbag] 24/11/2013 14:32

Titus,

You're not alone I believe:

[superg1] 24/11/2013 13:49

Crazy
It's final name was Aerte, I assume someone will make a go of it privately.

Although the final nail in the coffin was an order from the Chinese, with the cheque never appearing, so I guess it's reproduced in China.

Interestingly the ex IOF CEO has moved into a market of odour control, that kit would have done that as a side issue post bug destroying.

Very simple tech that creates the open bug killing scenario indoors.

The plenty of fresh air is healthy for you, is absolutely true. It's not just about UV light.

[peterz] 24/11/2013 13:24

Yep, sounds like it deserves to be a success!

[crazycoops] 24/11/2013 13:10

I tracked one for while. Tech that simply sits in a room, pumping out fresh air, even fragrance like an air freshener. In one hour it turns the room you are in into a more germ free environment that an operating theatre, and kills any odours in the process (they found that out by accident). Kills MRSA, C difficile and just about anything else. Cleans the air and all surfaces, won NHS product innovation awards and so on. Simple and brilliant, but the AIM company went bust, and disappeared. Cheap, discreet, and utterly brilliant, but it crashed and burned.

What was the company sg?

[titus10] 24/11/2013 12:46

Writz (837)

I'd expected to spend the weekend researching Statins before engaging battle with my GP, whose recent prescription of them for me is far from welcome, but I see your post is so important that it's jumped the queue and I'll also copy it to the TA thread.

1. Yes, the blessed 200-day m.a. Time was when David Fuller in his pre-acolyte days dismissed moving averages as lagging indicators of little interest, with good reason imo. I hope it doesn't seem too cynical to keep in mind that he and now his partner in FTMoney.com make a good professional living from "advising" as distinct from investing. In this respect one trusts it's not too fanciful to expect that they may craft their product to best suit their market. I have followed his operation virtually since he set up in London around half a century ago, observing the brand adapt.

Fuller/Treacy now use the 200-day s.m.a. as a simple trend 'swingometer', providing a 'mean' around which price converges and diverges. So one reads the phrase "reversion to the mean" quite often in their work. Why 200? Well,it's currently fashionable, easily understood. As a ShareScope user, one can switch instantaneously between any chart configurations one has set up, and one of my settings has it as one of many guides I use to potential crowd behaviour.

Fairly obviously, if you use crossings of a simple moving average by price as a trigger for dealing, you are going to be trailing the action. Playing with multiple m.a.s looking for "golden crosses' etc. (look up e.g. Donchian) effectively tightens the signals somewhat and offers a simple discipled action plan- always a good idea.

If you want to consider that, imo there's no substitute for blind testing - as much as you can do - historically on whatever you plan to trade. When it trends, you win. In trading ranges, you get 'whipsawed'. You'll need a chart package that enables you to step through the chart, day by day (or period by period if you are a trader) with all ensuing data hidden from view. Write or record your 'trades' at the time. Do lots of this paper trading seriously and rigorously and you'll learn plenty.

Imo there are better ways of analysing trends, estimating probable junctures, developing techniques for different situations including 'trading ranges' and - above all- money management. But that calls for a book and I've cardiovascular considerations to deal with now.

2. In the 1960s I wrestled with chart scaling questions. Eventually I evolved a logarithmic point & figure chart - something unheard of then. Attending The Chart Seminar sometime in the 70s, run by David Fuller himself in those days, I'm afraid I caused an upset in his presentation by disputing 'linear' or 'arithmetic' price charting. Quite simply, the more history, or vertical price movement there is, the more exaggerated movements near the top of the chart appear compared with those near the bottom. Just switch between the two scales on the same chart for that to become obvious.

I have an idea David started as a trader on an American exchange. When, e.g., day trading, one works just a small vertical price area, so this distortion is relatively unimportant. As noted above, Point & Figure charts predominated then and it was thought impossible to scale them any other way. It took me ages to persuade FullerMoney to get their programmers to offer log scaled candlestick (the current fashion) charts as an available option when their chart service went online in a new century - but neither he nor Eoin Treacy (who I understand came from Bloomberg) like to reform and use them.

You appear to be genuinely interested in chart analysis. May I seriously suggest that you equip yourself with a good standalone chart pack. I use ShareScope and the basic Gold version is more than adequate for investment purposes - I only upgraded to Plus because I need intraday data. I also use the ProRealTime charts offered within the IG Index SB service, but ShareScope Gold has everything you need to develop investment techniques and manage portfolios. I stand to gain nothing from recommending it from experience, by the way. Suggest having a look at their site: but all the multi-window stuff shown in their publicity is not necessary, imv. If you get it, I could email you my simple setup, if you wished.

GL

[pcjoe] 24/11/2013 12:44

SG - re Henry - "My responsibilities include evaluating and improving existing mechanical systems" - Excellent reason for not rushing roll out excessively - Each Plant to date IO 1 - 3 is different in some way from the next - The latest adaptions in IO3 allow for more automation - The whole process involved in Iofina`s extraction technique is brand new & will require time & a little patience to improve & optimise - Investors demand too much IMO in these situations

Also - The current turmoil amongst iodine producers is not one that Iofina should rush to join - keep expenditure at a minimum & the powder dry in these times - It is likely that Iochem requirements are now being fully met by on site operations - As a consequence IOF are - given their likely opex - now running an exceptionally profitable operation with existing customers as they hunt for new

The old man in his younger career was a Sergeant in charge of a squad of polis in one our toughest neighbourhoods - He recounted that major pub brawls were often allowed to largely burn themselves out - They kept a lowish profile & went in when exhaustion had began to set in - They made easy arrests....

[peterz] 24/11/2013 09:54

That reminds me must get the central heating boiler looked at for the winter lol...

[superg1] 24/11/2013 08:56

A Nuclear power engineer building Iosorb units. He should be capable enough :-)

Henry Mowry

I am presently the lead engineer at Iofina Resources. I am in charge of much of the design and procurement for our new iodine processing facilities. I work closely with an interdisciplinary team to optimize iodine production. My responsibilities include evaluating and improving existing mechanical systems as well as developing new and improved mechanical systems to improve iodine production. I oversee the construction of new facilities and perform much of the procurement for these new facilities

Previous

My responsibilities have included the development and coordination of modification packages for an operational nuclear facility. I was the responsible engineer for the condensate pump and motor replacement, isolated phase bus duct cooler replacement, and high pressure turbine replacement. During the implementation outages I was the mechanical engineer in charge of all mechanical modification packages, including the high and low pressure feedwater heaters, main feedwater pumps, minimum flow recirculation lines for the new main feedwater pumps, main feedwater isolation valves, and various other modification packages. This role included review of engineering specifications, calculations, and evaluations. This work also included close coordination with engineers from other disciplines and ensuring work was performed in a logical and timely manner.

[superg1] 23/11/2013 22:12

Monty

No they haven't yet, but there is plenty of rumour around about what may go on there including a JV. I have heard that from a number of directions now everyone but this BB seems to mention it. I am mindful that plenty of BBs have rumours on them which tend to be complete BS.

That IC list the other. Someone just had comms with me along the same lines as my thoughts. Shares that would have made that sort of list in the past, and maybe in the future, imo could include TRT, CRA, and a host of others.

A key factor in technology shares is new ideas, which appear to be ground breaking, and will or should be future products of choice. However (just my opinion), I look at such shares and think about how big any industry is, that they would affect.

We would all want any particular investment to have the biggest impact possible with the largest market, in numerous countries. BUT if it is a tech that displaces other long standing existing tech, there potentially is a massive billions of £s supply chain involving 10s of 1000s of jobs that could be affected by any brilliant new idea. Supply chains for the various parts of products.

So L look at many of them and think fab idea, but who will 'the market' want it around. Obviously the fab idea view gets the investor interest and the share price reacts accordingly. It's a whole different ball game, turning great ideas into big returns.

So while I like many of those shares, there is nothing more simple among them than IOF using new tech to extract a product far cheaper than it's rivals, in market that is set and worldwide where the lowest cost producers have the upper hand.
Without digging deeply it wasn't obvious either that the others have some extra 'Blue sky' opportunities.

Just 2% of the AIM end up as 10 baggers as mentioned. But then it's not about multiples they rise, but how much you are willing to invest.

For many of them while they look like they could have great futures, I wouldn't want to risk too much on them.

I tracked one for while. Tech that simply sits in a room, pumping out fresh air, even fragrance like an air freshener. In one hour it turns the room you are in into a more germ free environment that an operating theatre, and kills any odours in the process (they found that out by accident). Kills MRSA, C difficile and just about anything else. Cleans the air and all surfaces, won NHS product innovation awards and so on. Simple and brilliant, but the AIM company went bust, and disappeared. Cheap, discreet, and utterly brilliant, but it crashed and burned.

[escapetohome] 23/11/2013 20:48

Not sure if this has been posted - apologies if has

hxxp://share-knowledge.org.uk/2013/11/22/what-is-the-investment-case-for-iofina/

[monty panesar] 23/11/2013 20:01

Does anyone know if IOF are still going to apply/have applied for water permits in North Dakota?

[johncsimpson] 23/11/2013 16:57

Have done some checking back so first a correction to post 11512 – not too important but the company who (according to that Canadian site) did find commercial oil was DeeThree and not Three Dees and they listed 15 players not eight or so.

engelo 23 Nov'13 - 14:26 – 11532 – that map and those 15 players is over 18 months old so if you've a more up to date list that may be helpful to those interested in IOF's potential oil 'interests'.

Bobsworth 11520 - re where are Iofina on the map? That's the map as was provided by that same Canadian site back in February

And before someone asks I can't find the link. I deleted it as recently as the last ten days but I have, actually, kept some of the chit chat in the same folder as follows:

Johnnybig
April 13, 2012 at 3:36 am • Reply

Iofina is set to blow, look at recent trading patterns. 290,000 acres is not to be sneezed at.

• Mich
April 13, 2012 at 11:17 am • Reply
Too bad it only trades on the LSE....Good luck to our EU investors!

-------------------

John C Simpson
November 16, 2013 at 6:30 pm • Reply

Hello Mich,
Any update on Iofina as per 'The Alberta Bakken Players in Montana' February 9th, 2011?
If there is any way I can help you, please ask.
Thanking you in anticipation,
John

• Mich
November 16, 2013 at 6:35 pm • Reply

Hi John,
The AB was not what it was thought to be, except for DeeThree exploration, I don't think anyone else struck oil in commercial quantities!
I doubt Iofina fared any better,
Cheers,
Mich

----------------

John C Simpson
November 17, 2013 at 2:08 pm • Reply

Hello Mich,
Thank you for such a speedy reply. I know this is an oil and gas orientated 'blog' and in truth, I'm more interested in the iodine content of the brine bi-product of the fracking process (to name one source) and also water.
When you originally uploaded this page, IOF were circa £0.26p (that's GBP). They're now £1.70 and have been as high as £2.40 – March 2013.
With their patented conversion technology proven and conversion plants about to roll out at the rate of one every two months (they have 3 at the moment, two more under construction and aiming for 12 by end 2014). They aim to become the World's largest iodine and iodine related product producer.
I was just interested in any 'chalk face' information because IMHO, the share price is about to move.

• Mich
November 17, 2013 at 8:05 pm • Reply

Hey John,
I am not aware of Iofina's activities, I stick to what I know in my speculative account and that's Canadian listed O&G stocks.
Besides that I have no opinion on this company.
It looks like it might be a good shot based on your input, hope you're loaded and ready to ride it up!
Good luck,
Mich

---------------

I've got all sorts of bits and bobs, including a map(s) and some text and notes re the following but need to sort and format it. A lot of it's probably not too relevant and a lot of it's not too well collated:

• Nisku/Arcs
• Bakken group (BigValley, Exshaw(lower Bakken)/Bakken and Banff (upper Bakken))
• Swift/Reirdon
• Mannville
• Barons
• Second White Specks

That's all I've time for right now but I'll try and piece some more of the notes together tomorrow. Please note that just about everything in this post is taken from the 'research' of others.

[writz] 23/11/2013 16:21

Titus, thanks for those videos. I bought Eoin Treacy's Crowd Money and have been reading it this weekend - very good stuff, so thanks for that recommendation.

I have a couple of questions based on the book.

1. He's very keen on the 200-day moving average. But as an indicator it's more persuasive on multi-year charts than intra-year. Do you use moving averages, and if so, what period do you favour?

2. I notice that nearly all of Treacy's charts are arithmetic, not logarithmic, and that he doesn't (at least in the book) draw any lines on them at all. So while he makes a good argument for the power of breakouts, based on bid and offer vacuums above and below a range, he's more interested in explaining the psychology of the moves than in identifying triggers. I've always followed the lore that lines are more likely to work on logarithmic scales. Do you have any reasons for selecting one or the other? [EDIT: rereading it, I see he's distinguishing chart reading from TA, and the book is about the first, not the second, so I withdraw the question!]

Thanks - your wisdom is greatly appreciated.

Writz

[engelo] 23/11/2013 14:26

JohnCS, Rugrat, superg: thanks for great info.

By coincidence I've been collecting a list of oil cos with Montana acreage. Most of the links below have maps. Haven't checked against John C's list, but will do.

Version 3: 19th Nov

List of oilies with acreage in Montana, backed up with maps.


Continental: Sheridan, Rooseveld, Richland

hxxp://bakkenshale.com/news/continental-resources-2014-bakken-budget-increases-billion/

hxxp://bakkenshale.com/news/continental-resources-2014-bakken-budget-increases-billion/attachment/continental-resources-bakken-three-forks-map/

3 forks benches density test schematic:

hxxp://bakkenshale.com/news/continental-resources-bakken-three-forks-density-test-yields-almost-15000-bd/attachment/continental-resources-hawkinson-bakken-three-forks-density-test/

Enerplus: Richland

hxxp://bakkenshale.com/news/enerpluss-us-production-grows-with-fort-berthold-bakken-production/attachment/enerplus-bakken-map/

EOG: E counties (but on the back burner vs ND)

Global US map: hxxp://www.eogresources.com/operations/division_operations.html

Bakken subcrop/elm Coulee:

hxxp://bakkenshale.com/news/eog-will-utilize-self-sourced-sand-bakken-completions/

Halcon: Sheridan, Rooseveld, Richland

hxxp://bakkenshale.com/news/halcon-bakken-well-surpasses-3000-boed-on-fort-berthold-reservation/attachment/halcon-resources-bakken-acreage-map-2/

Kodiak: Sheridan

hxxp://www.kodiakog.com/operations/williston.html

Marathon: Sheridan, Rooseveld, Richland

hxxp://bakkenshale.com/news/marathon-oil-bakken-drilling-speed-and-production/attachment/marathon-oil-bakken-map/

Montana Exploration: Blaine, Philips, Hill?



Norstra Energy: Lewis and Clark

Good maps but some way west of us.



Oasis: E counties (includes 2 downspacing tests)

hxxp://bakkenshale.com/news/oasis-petroleum-is-testing-bakken-three-forks-well-spacing/attachment/bakken-three-forks-well-spacing-tests/

Triangle:: Roosevelt, Sheridan

hxxp://www.oilandgas-investments.com/report/download/triangle.pdf

Weil: Hill, Roosevelt

Drilling report

[superg1] 23/11/2013 12:39

Forgot to mention, the below is current and relevant. Note the last paragraph re the area having never been drilled for the Nisku. Companies don't spend millions on pot luck, they think there is oil in the Nisku.

Just to add, only 4 or 5 wells, ever went to the Nisku depths in the Liberty and Hill county area (decades back). The Weil 1 well was drilled next to a well called Bair. In the Bair well, Texaco did checks at various intervals, then decided to crack on down to lower depths, missing the Nisku completely

In a Montana board of Oil and gas pdf list from last month-:

Docket 462-2013

APPLICANT: AMERICAN MIDWEST OIL AND GAS CORP. – TOOLE COUNTY, MONTANA

Upon the application of American Midwest Oil and Gas Corp.

Montana, (East Kevin Field) so that the requirement for 80-acre spacing units in said order no longer exists and said lands revert back to statewide spacing ( 40 acre spacing units) for production of oil and associated natural gas from the NISKU Formation.

Docket 463-2013

APPLICANT: AMERICAN MIDWEST OIL AND GAS CORP. – TOOLE COUNTY, MONTANA



T35N-R1E
Section 25: All
Section 26: All
Section 27: All
Section 28: All
Section 29: All
Section 33: N½
Section 34: All
Section 35: All
Section 36: All

T34N-R1E
Section 1: All
Section 2: All
Section 3: All
Section 9: S½
Section 10: All
Section 11: All
Section 12: All
Section 13: All
Section 14: All
Section 15: All
Section 16: All
Section 17: All
Section 18: All

Board Order 9-1986 required that Nisku wells drilled on the above mentioned lands be on the basis of one well per 80-acre spacing unit.

Applicant states the above lands have never had Nisku Formation oil test wells drilled, and applicant would like to drill vertical Nisku Formation test
wells on the basis of one well per 40-acres, which is the statewide spacing for wells at that depth.

[orslega] 23/11/2013 12:31

SQM Q3 Earnings conf call....rather woolly and evasive responses, lol

Operator

Our next question is from Wesley Brooks of Morgan Stanley.
Wesley R. Brooks - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Just one question from me. On iodine, just you talked about prices easing partly because of the higher supply, but also demand being at the low end of the range. Do you think that the lower demand has been due to the high prices in the last year or 2? Or were there other factors that were really impacting the demand?

Patricio G. Contesse - Chief Executive Officer and President
Our view that we think that high prices has affected it, has to be some explanation.

Wesley R. Brooks - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Okay. And then, so I guess, this comes down to you've been testing the elasticity of demand and those prices were a bit high. So how should we think about this going forward? At what level do you feel demand starts to pickup again to be running at sort of 4% plus?

Patricio G. Contesse - Chief Executive Officer and President
We have our numbers in our mind, but I apologize that I cannot give it to you because at this same moment, we are negotiating with our clients for the contract for next year. I cannot give you the range of what we think will be the price that could stabilize the situation that you're talking about.

Wesley R. Brooks - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Okay, understood. But then so, I guess, from Q1, we should be able to see whatever the -- or have a good indication of what the new level will be?

Patricio G. Contesse - Chief Executive Officer and President
Yes. Absolutely.

Operator

At this time, this will end our question and answer session. Thank you.


hxxp://seekingalpha.com/article/1855151-chemical-mining-of-chile-management-discusses-q3-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=3&p=qanda&l=last

[superg1] 23/11/2013 12:29

Neddo

If they Weil 1 well turns out to be a commercial well, then no worries. Weil are on a 5,800 acre section surrounded by IOF, there are clear guidelines around what you raise.

However it's nothing at all until proven, but the interest by Weil is out of character for them.

This is just a case of identifying potential, before anyone else has caught on about it, but doesn't necessarily make it a reason to invest.

If IOF was a small oil company doing a few wells, it seems likely they would hit oil somewhere on their land, they have all the 3D data, why else would they hang on to such a large acreage. the whole idea of that was for iodine, but I doubt we will ever see iodine production from there as they have 100 plus sites much better than this.

I suspect we here have far more knowledge about what is going on around IOF land than they do.

WE didn't point to the Nisku, and start talking about it, the Nisku interest had appeared and is gathering pace in recent months. I could provide dozens of articles covering recent interest, but we need to focus on iodine.

The gathering Nisku action so far is in Toole county, but clearly Weil got excited about it in Hill county too and now have gone way east to check it again. No doubt if the Nisku Oil chasers in Montana start hitting good oil, then over the next year or so we'll start to hear about it and the band wagon of oil chasers appear.

Best to get to grips with it early if relevant.

Sorry to CF if he reads this. In the presentation he mentioned ignoring the other assets for now. Well I'm sure I know 10 fold about the acreage of what he and others at IOF do, so it's relevant to me, as a back up asset should all else fail.

At the end of the day is a back up asset that no one really cares about, very few shares I know of, if any, have such 'sleeper' assets that could be so highly significant. Logically the longer they hold onto that and ignore interest, then the greater the value will become, if others start hitting oil all around them.

Toole county isn't that far off, and Weil have interest in the Nisku right next to IOF's land. It could have been a dud, but why spend money on another Nisku well further east, when they were looking for Helium. The only logic to me is that they think they may have found something.


I only mention it as I'm getting Oil questions, I just quietly track it all in the background and haven't really looked in depth.

[panoramix] 23/11/2013 11:37

It seems social media are more in vogue at the moment..

Primary is a junior oil and gas company engaged in exploration and development activities in NW Montana. Primary is not currently producing any hydrocarbons, but it holds substantial land positions in both an unconventional and conventional oil play. A successful transaction with Keek would involve the disposition by Primary of its oil and gas assets.

[neddo] 23/11/2013 11:30

if their is a well on the boundary of iof land, won't there be a seepage of iof oil into this well, how can we get paid for it?

[superg1] 23/11/2013 11:09

lol

reads well that report, and I've seen small oil share BB's go daft over any info like that.

Truth is they may or may not turn that area into an oil play.

The move to Roosevelt to drill one Nisku well is a real head-scratcher as it's many miles east. Roosevelt has in the past had production from the Nisku, so perhaps they want to test that level way over there to get an idea of the make up and porosities, to see if it matched anything like Weil 1.

It's a damn big geographic area if it does open up and a big chunk under IOF.

IOF are 'parked' right next to the Weil 1 well. There was much talk about the Alberta bakken/Exshaw, that was very hit and miss, in the same area that they now seem to be going on about the Nisku.

One key point is the highly fractured area comment. With all the uplifts and seismic movements millions of years back in the Liberty/Hill county area (Sweetgrass arch, bearpaw uplift, great falls tectonic zone etc), I agree.