Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[noli] 22/11/2013 12:56

I really dont think we will get past IO#12 or next year by the looks of it, with all these other companies struggling or dropping production iof is even more a target.

Assuming iof get between 100 & 300mt per plant going forward at approx 2 million per plant and onlookers are spending 34 mill for just 300mt. This is a no brainer. That speaks volumes in its own right.

[che7win] 22/11/2013 12:35

superg,
Nano had a renegotiation of the contract with Dow this year, vague on royalties but it looked like a negative long term dilution to me.

On the lease contracts we have for iodine extraction, don't these leases have a 2-3 year timespan? I understand they are renewed automatically if we are extracting iodine from the lease, but what if we aren't?
Do we have to renegotiate the lease?

[diggulden] 22/11/2013 12:20

'Extrapolate from that to IO#10 (by end FY 14) let alone IO#25 by end 2016 - also I suggest realistic'

This is the fact that remains to be seen. I certainly hope they can achieve this type of rollout, with one plant commissioned in 2012, and two plants commissioned in 2013, a further 22 plants by the end of 2016 looks a long way off at the moment.

However, with every successful commissioning, lessons will be learned and efficiencies improved, so hopefully in 2014 they can really motor on with the rollout.

[bobbyshilling] 22/11/2013 12:12

Having re-read post 11437, and SCRUTABLE'S above, if we get 20-24 producing plants it is similar to a producing oil company with recoverable reserves of 1billion barrels. Just think how the market cap will equate to that! We will have recoverable reserves in the form of iodine instead of oil. BUT - here's a thought - we may in a few years have our own oil reserves to add to it as well.

[scrutable] 22/11/2013 11:54

jamonit 21 Nov'13 - 15:54 - 11472
I'm no chartist, so would anyone care to comment on this:


Titus has produced most of what is worth saying academically on the subject, in particular that you can join any two points on a chart to illustrate what you want. Your lines 'mean' nothing that is predictive.

Titus may or may not agree but my own experience is that 'sticky oscillation' as I call it, is the only predictive pattern which correlates high enough with the share price to "increase the probability of making money". In actual fact I prefer the more arcane mirror image description...."to decrease the probability of losing money"

That's because the professionals, like bookies, need to live from their activities,and the ultimate source of money is the PI. The balance of chance in a PI's favour is normally much lower than that of the 20:21 against from the roulette wheel. I rate the PI novice as having no more than 30:70 chance of keeping his/her money.

It has taken me 40 years to skew this handicap to one in my favour of say 80:20 and that has come from one by one slowly eliminating the crassest of risks, of which the greatest is investing in companies that have skills, IP, licences, rights, opportunities,expert knowledge,cash etc but as yet no income, ie investing purely in The Story. One after the other the great majority of start-ups, perhaps 90%, run out of cash, shut down, and are lost to sight. As with salmon smolts going out to sea only a very tiny number finally reach the spawning grounds, yet collectively then appear abundant. The illusion persists that stock selection amongst start-ups will pay off.

The sticky oscillation pattern tells me that there is a high probability of IOF reaching £3.40 by April, but that's my call and not advice. And remember "Sell in May and go away". We all lost a lot on Paper last Summer, and some of us Big Money.

As usual DYOR

[scrutable] 22/11/2013 10:46

sg your electrifying post 11437 which quantifies the long term value of each lease gives a whole new measure of the IOF asset, a piece of which we each own. It highlights a much higher total than from projections of share price movements and in turn capitalisations however accurate, or however 'forecast' in good faith.

Your example of $500m revenue from IO#'2 will amaze readers, but I believe is quite realistic. Extrapolate from that to IO#10 (by end FY 14) let alone IO#25 by end 2016 - also I suggest realistic- and we really are in the Land of Dreams but really can raise Hope to Expectation of their coming true. It should change many lives.

Your description of the future from this new angle gives further weight to my suggestions a year or two ago, dismissed as hype, that we were staring at the greatest investment opportunity in a decade. I quoted ('wildly' out of context as netley quickly pointed out) the line from the great Oscar "...that dares not speak its name". IOF has all the time been too large a prospect to dare to circumscribe without losing all credibility.

An investment in IOF is truly something extremely special as your insightful post has illuminated and and all the intermittent tribulations of innovation and build up, trial and error, are best taken in our stride 'cum grano salis'.

[superg1] 22/11/2013 09:45

Some comparisons to put things in perspective re other promising shares.

The two mentioned on a regular basis over the year that are in the AIM 50 and looking like good prospects are OCG (now VLS) and Nano.

Nano peak price, a smidge under £2 now 134.5. A drop of 32% MC £292M

OCG (VLS) peak price around 195 now 139 a drop of around 29% MC £160m

IOF peak 247 now 162 a drop of around 34% MC £206m

All had peak prices in H1 this year.


Nano and VLS as far as I'm aware have not had any setbacks, things improve as they move forward.

We all know the IOF 'fun' this year. Yet the difference v peaks and now is about 5% across the 3.

I always pick on OCG (VLS) as it's the clear IF share (impossible failure)

Except for a dip in 2011 OCG (VLS) has had revenues of around £7 to £8m pa, for the 4 years 2009 to 2012.

Losses have grown each year from £6m to near £11m in the same time period.

There is no clear indicator at the moment for either of those, where personally I can work out what there revenue and profits could be in future years. It's new markets, so who knows what the uptake will be.

Both are new tech plays, maybe destined for big things, and hence there is great interest in both. They should both do very well.

However just based on time passing, and price movements in the market, it starts to put things into perspective re IOF.

The CEO, the delays, the bickering, the bear attack, and overall a 5% difference across the 3 in chart moves.

[superg1] 22/11/2013 08:21

Hot

Yes there was talk of Stuart and new ventures, I think a couple of the IOF PIs I know well spoke to him about it.

Of course I would rather it be, the need for all hands on deck at Hawk.

I recall the posts of dread by many IOF PIs when it was announced he would be joining IOF, due to the Hawk connections from the horrors there in the past.

[che7win] 22/11/2013 08:21

O/T I see Dr Fay and others got their options reset over at Brightside (BRT).

[hotr0d] 22/11/2013 08:06

I believe he had mentioned At one of the presentations he was considering setting up a new fund looking at AIM stocks, could be a good new potential buyer for IOF and nighthawk stock!

[rogerbridge] 22/11/2013 07:59

Hit the nail on the head orslega.

[danster4] 22/11/2013 07:49

Or Senecca Partners....

[orslega] 22/11/2013 07:44

Nighthawk must be taking up far too much of Stuart Eaton's time, interesting...

[worraps] 22/11/2013 07:40

malachey......Thanks! Good to see that, I'm chuckling over my first cuppa of the day. Brilliant.

[meadow2] 22/11/2013 07:37

It looks as though Stuart Eaton has decided that the job has been done and is moving on to pastures new. Good luck to him.

[captain_kurt] 22/11/2013 07:33

I wouldn't be surprised if Lance now becomes a non-exec of Iofina

[malachey] 22/11/2013 00:53

He's right you know Worraps:



;)

[lignum] 21/11/2013 22:55

Good, we're all agreed then. Back to the Company.

[superg1] 21/11/2013 21:16

Che7

Any obvious reason for the dive in the share price mid month?

[escapetohome] 21/11/2013 21:08

Dipped a toe in GRPH today - appears to be at a discount to a certain new issue which has risen very sharply on floatation, bound to be some comparisons.

Not recommending this as a tip though - just one of my own small speculations for my SIPP

[che7win] 21/11/2013 20:04

TPL, Not a great week, but well undervalued at the current price.

Worth watching this video if you want some background:

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/2343/tethys-petroleums-robson-on-partnerships-funding-and-huge-potential-of-its-assets--2343.html?

[superg1] 21/11/2013 18:47

Scrut

Serious question, what is GET, is that for India, I can't find any info.