Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[j4ckster] 05/5/2024 13:07

"Canaccord are not doing a great job!!"

txi, I was thinking the same too.

[beercapafn] 05/5/2024 13:04

Does any know how much IOF pays Canaccord for their services. ?

Please.

[txi] 05/5/2024 10:24

Canaccord are not doing a great job!!

[chillpill] 04/5/2024 22:07

7of9,
Their expansion plans are dependent on desalination plants and pipelines which as we are seeing take over 5 years to build.

The extra capacity will only keep up with the increased demand which is expected to rise 1000t pa.

There is a shortfall in the near term with the 2500t pa Cosayach mine closing.

[chillpill] 04/5/2024 22:00

txi. In part it is due to the exodus from the AIM market although that might be starting to change.
Premier Miton have bought around 6% holding in the last year.

“As we go into 2024, IO#10 currently appears to be in a location of strong brine flows and good iodine content and will be a material addition to the Group. We believe that our current focus area of future plants will be a paradigm shift for the Group, and it will ignite our long-term development plans as we seek to diversify geographically from prior plant locations. In 2023, we were able to provide evidence that Iofina is a highly attractive and profitable Group, and we continued to share our story with global institutional funds, family offices, and retail investors. Our shareholder register expanded in the financial year with the addition of new institutional holdings. We will continue to hold roadshows and investor programs in 2024 under the stewardship of Canaccord Genuity, the Company's nominated adviser and broker. We have a strategic plan to stabilise costs from inflationary pressures, which will help as we go into the next growth phase.”

[severnof9] 04/5/2024 21:06

Forgive the Pun but this is truly a mine of information

hxxps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/909037/000090903724000022/exhibit962_technicalreport.htm

see 14.2.3

This confirms the Total SQM iodine production in 2023

Nueva Victoria (including the Iris Operation) currently has a total production capacity of 13 ktpy of iodine, which affords SQM the flexibility to adjust production according to market conditions (iodine price). In 2019, 42,196 Mt of caliche, with a mean iodine grade of 465 ppm iodine, were processed, from which 10.70 kt of prilled iodine was produced. For the year 2023, the mean iodine grade of mined caliche was 398 ppm iodine and the 43.5 Mt of caliche processed yielded 12.2 kt of prilled iodine (11.4 kt from Nueva Victoria and 0.8 kt from PB).

So their 14,000 tonne per year capacity works out at 12,200 tonne per year in practice.

Page 144

In terms of future, Nueva Victoria, and Iris' mining (see Section 13.2, see Table 13-3) and industrial plan, an economic analysis of which is discussed later in Chapter 19 (see Table 19-1) considers caliche extraction at a current rate of 44 Mtpy and estimates an increase in iodine and nitrate production to the year 2030. Projected growth is sequential and is expected to reach 10.1-11.3 ktpy of iodine production by 2029 - 2030.

Their longer term plan is 23000 tonne per year see 14.3 page 146

[txi] 04/5/2024 18:01

they need to put in place a person dedicated to looking after shareholders interests
It doesn't appear that anyone is taking notice of the dire share price.
What's the point of ramping investment if no one cares about the share price

[chillpill] 04/5/2024 08:31

Yep beer on dividend.

Expecting acceleration of growth using capital. 75% increase in production in 3 years up to nearly 1000t in 2026. It works out at a new plant roughly every 9 months.

I prefer the profits generated in be reinvested as it is a better use of capital as it has a high return of capital.

Looking at the CC note the one thing that would change this would be the iodine price staying at these levels into next year.

[chillpill] 04/5/2024 08:20

Best thing from Tom’s interview is they are a long way down the road on the process for IO#11.
Hopefully it can be fully operational by this time next year.

[pinkpudycat] 03/5/2024 15:29

Beer, what’s new, change of management is well overdue!

[beercapafn] 03/5/2024 13:29

If you watch this looking for a hint on a dividend or buyback = you will see quite the opposite.

Just saying.

[zendo102] 03/5/2024 09:12

Another interview with Tom Becker:

[this_is_me] 02/5/2024 21:08

Revenue has more than doubled over the last 5 years; that makes it a growth company.

[zendo102] 02/5/2024 14:00

severnof9 - Thank you for taking the time to put forward the bull case. It lays out the potential upside for all to see. These differences in opinion are what makes the market.

[chillpill] 02/5/2024 13:18

Good to finally see some figures in the market for next 2 years.

Iodine production expected to be 790t next year and 975t in 2026….almost at that 1000t mark.

[barrywhit] 02/5/2024 13:00

Zendo, i think your posts sum up IOF SPOT ON. Having been in and out of IOF for the last 12 or so years, it has gone absolutely nowhere....

[chillpill] 02/5/2024 12:54

Owenga,

It was never going to be completed in Q2 as they previously stated the first groundworks started in mid-Jan and it takes 6 months to build a plant.

[zendo102] 02/5/2024 10:53

This_is_me Iofina is not a growth company any more - if it ever was. The p/e of 5 tells you investors see value there, but not growth. The results next year will be almost identical, except some numbers will be a bit higher, IO#9 will be replaced with #IO10, and IO#10 will be replaced with IO#11. We could have a reasonable stab at writing the 2024 results now. Barring black swan events, I don’t think we’d be too far from the mark.

In the quest to put the company on a financially secure footing, the company has become financially predictable. I now liken Iofina to a roomful of accountants, not adventurers.

[zendo102] 02/5/2024 10:39

Results:
Lacklustre and pedestrian - there is nothing on the horizon that is likely to jump start the share price.

Compare:
“Costs of raw materials to process the brine water into iodine continued to increase in 2023, however, chemical cost increases in 2023 were lower than those of 2022.”

“During H2 2022, iodine prices peaked and have subsequently slowly come off these highs during 2023 and have currently settled in the mid to upper sixties per kilogram.”

In other words, those supplying chemicals to Iofina were able to raise their prices, but Iofina were not able to pass those increased costs on to their customers. Margins suffer. (Inflation hit 10-15% last year. Why are iodine prices not $77-$80/kg? Everything else has gone up.)

Growth strategy:
IO#10 is so well flagged that it is now a banana skin rather than a possible surprise to the upside. Only a ramp up in plant building (or a surprise maiden dividend) can save us now. How about starting the next plant before the previous one is finished, so those preparing the site finish and then move straight onto the next, those installing equipment do the same? Iofina has the resources to do this - either there is no will to do it, or the economics are just not that good.

Yearly share price chart:
a relentless share price drop from 32p to where we are now. Any more and we will be at the offer price of the share placement 5 years ago (April 1st, 2019) - shares were offered at 16p, which according to the Bank of England’s (very conservative) inflation calculator, is equivalent to 19.74p today. That was the last time I bought Iofina shares. With the current price of 19.77p, I’m effectively up less than 0.03p (1%) a share over FIVE years in real terms. Drinks all round? I think not.

Investor Mood:
The lack of comments on this board show extreme investor apathy as well. In years gone by, when the narrative was good, there was 10 times as many posts on results days. A company does need to focus on the fundamentals, but investors also need to see a story to buy into. Iofina used to trumpet the unique tech, the strategic importance of iodine, the environmentally friendly extraction of a valuable product from waste product, the huge untapped potential of the vast quantities of brine being disposed of every day, the lowest costs of production in the industry, the desire to be the biggest producer in the USA. Many of these ideas are there, but they are buried in the strategic report (did you read that far?) In becoming prudent and conservative, Iofina has become BORING.

There are some value characteristics there, but where is the out, the catalyst that will drive the share price up? Without that Iofina will just plod along. This could be the bottom for the share price, but sometime over the tax year, unless there is a dramatic turnaround, I suspect I’ll be selling my medium-sized stack of Iofina shares to offset capital gains elsewhere.

Anyone care to change my mind?

[this_is_me] 02/5/2024 08:34

What is really impressive4 is that the revenue has more than doubled over the last 5 years and the P/E is only around the 5 mark - far too low for a growth company.

[owenga] 02/5/2024 08:28

It looks like it now takes 9 months to build the new plant rather than 6. I was expecting the latest plant to be online by end of 2nd quarter.Cashflow looks strong though and we are net cashflow positive even after all the capital expenditure.

[beercapafn] 02/5/2024 08:03

I think it is as always "very thin" on detail.

This was a real opportunity to explain in detail THE PLAN".