Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[chillpill] 16/4/2024 08:11

I’m not sure where they get quite a lot of their figures from tbh. I preferred the finnCap research. Was easier to understand.

[naphar] 16/4/2024 08:09

Yes there does seem to be upside chill.
I don’t know where the $300k ebitda per $1 increase comes from. I would have thought it would all drop to the bottom line, except perhaps for some additional royalty cost of about 10-15% (unless I am being fact), so with expected iodine sales of 634mt, I would think ebitda could be understated by $2.7m if prices remain stable and they sell per expectations.

[barrywhit] 16/4/2024 08:04

yesterdays traders out already...LOL

[beercapafn] 16/4/2024 08:04

well someone is disappointed. !

[chillpill] 16/4/2024 07:49

Frustrating on the brines. Canaccord have scaled back the figures in accordance with the guidance.

As they say those figures are based on $60 iodine price when the current price is $65. They estimate you can add $300k in EBITDA for every $1 move so that figure should prove conservative.

Good that IO#10 is another 100-150t plant. Hopefully IO#11 will be operational by this time next year.

[naphar] 16/4/2024 07:47

I think that explains the lack of director buys this year, they will have been in a closed period, if nothing else. I suspect they will now remain in a closed period until post results announcement.

[naphar] 16/4/2024 07:42

So on the operational side all seems to be going to plan, IO10 on track, volumes on track, IO11 negotiations at advanced stage (but heard that before on previous plants), iodine price holding.
Just the small elephant in the room of a profit warning for 2024 due to updated brine supply agreements, causing a target price reduction from 40p to 35p.
What baffles me is why Canacord hadn’t been factoring in to forecasts such a change to brine supply agreements. Surely they would have known? I certainly don’t think this would have been a surprise to Iofina. Maybe they didn’t want to tip off brine partners to the topic but I also expect they would have been well aware anyway.

[this_is_me] 16/4/2024 07:19

"once operating, IO#10 is expected to produce 100-150MT of crystalline iodine per annum."
That is very approximately around a 20% increase in revenue.

[chillpill] 15/4/2024 19:33

The only thing that looks to be “up” is that the seller has finished. The shares traded of 983k is similar to other days recently.

We know there will almost certainly be a production update this week and also the data available to us- temperature, well volumes and iodine price suggests a very solid quarter.

[beercapafn] 15/4/2024 14:21

The 13 - 123 - 1230 buyer is having a real push this afternoon if you follow the moment-to-moment real-time share buys. Go - go - it is working.

[beercapafn] 15/4/2024 13:53

Looks like somethings " up "

[barrywhit] 15/4/2024 11:39

Large buy at 23p @ 10.11....225k

[chillpill] 15/4/2024 10:07

Fingers crossed the seller of the last few weeks is done.

[severnof9] 14/4/2024 19:57

Hi Chillpill

Re post 8732. Thank you for sharing. It is much appreciated.

[naphar] 14/4/2024 19:37

Wes tomorrow given Fridays end of day uptick? Or was it just the shorters closing thinking they pushed their much far enough?

[chillpill] 14/4/2024 08:11

Spot iodine price has rallied to where it was 6 months ago. Gone up 6% in last 6 weeks.

Severn- I was looking at the SWD volumes on the OCC website where I can see 4 of plant water volumes. IOF have good exposure to some of the highest volume wells- post restrictions. So being around existing SWD’s is limited.

The highest volume wells are around 18k bpd including Rio Grande. Longhurst (IO#2) is around 14k per day.

IO#9 is completely different in that is in an enclosed system so isn’t affected by SWD injection rates. It has a 25k capacity. The plans are on the OCC website too. It is in a new drill area to ensure max plant life.

[beeezzz] 12/4/2024 17:19

Lot of B&B there...not surprising...

[beercapafn] 12/4/2024 16:36

Well, that was an interesting trading day.

12-Apr-24 16:35:22 20.80 8,000 1,664 UT
12-Apr-24 16:29:21 21.12 2,500 528.00 O
12-Apr-24 16:28:36 21.00 13 2.73 O
12-Apr-24 16:24:03 20.948 50,000 10.47k O
12-Apr-24 16:23:49 20.9242 50,000 10.46k O
12-Apr-24 16:20:58 20.56 13 2.67 O
12-Apr-24 16:20:15 20.10 6,415 1,289 O
12-Apr-24 16:19:14 20.56 13 2.67 O
12-Apr-24 16:09:47 20.445 50,000 10.22k O
12-Apr-24 16:01:26 20.24 50,000 10.12k O
12-Apr-24 15:49:47 20.26 13 2.63 O
12-Apr-24 15:38:29 20.26 2,786 564.44 O
12-Apr-24 15:27:48 19.51 2,786 543.55 O
12-Apr-24 15:01:46 20.30 241 48.92 O
12-Apr-24 14:14:16 20.34 13 2.64 O
12-Apr-24 13:09:26 19.655 189,909 37.33k O
12-Apr-24 13:35:34 20.34 13 2.64 O
12-Apr-24 13:28:21 20.34 13 2.64 O
12-Apr-24 13:27:30 20.20 10,000 2,020 O
12-Apr-24 13:14:20 20.20 13 2.63 O

[beercapafn] 12/4/2024 14:18

there are 191,000,000 million in issue don't think buying or selling a few 100,000 chunks is an issue

More concerned about the reasons.

[captain_kurt] 12/4/2024 13:37

100k sells keep getting thrown.

Chances are some negative news in operations is forthcoming ?

[jacks e4] 12/4/2024 07:57

Hi All, have been a holder here over 2 years now :-( very suprised we down at 20p again but the 19p support looks to be holding thus far.If they try another shake out sub 19p i will doubling my holding ( will take me to 300k ).

[beeezzz] 11/4/2024 16:01

I expect operational costs have also increased which may count balance any increase in iodine prices..