Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[this_is_me] 02/5/2024 21:08

Revenue has more than doubled over the last 5 years; that makes it a growth company.

[zendo102] 02/5/2024 14:00

severnof9 - Thank you for taking the time to put forward the bull case. It lays out the potential upside for all to see. These differences in opinion are what makes the market.

[chillpill] 02/5/2024 13:18

Good to finally see some figures in the market for next 2 years.

Iodine production expected to be 790t next year and 975t in 2026….almost at that 1000t mark.

[barrywhit] 02/5/2024 13:00

Zendo, i think your posts sum up IOF SPOT ON. Having been in and out of IOF for the last 12 or so years, it has gone absolutely nowhere....

[chillpill] 02/5/2024 12:54

Owenga,

It was never going to be completed in Q2 as they previously stated the first groundworks started in mid-Jan and it takes 6 months to build a plant.

[zendo102] 02/5/2024 10:53

This_is_me Iofina is not a growth company any more - if it ever was. The p/e of 5 tells you investors see value there, but not growth. The results next year will be almost identical, except some numbers will be a bit higher, IO#9 will be replaced with #IO10, and IO#10 will be replaced with IO#11. We could have a reasonable stab at writing the 2024 results now. Barring black swan events, I don’t think we’d be too far from the mark.

In the quest to put the company on a financially secure footing, the company has become financially predictable. I now liken Iofina to a roomful of accountants, not adventurers.

[zendo102] 02/5/2024 10:39

Results:
Lacklustre and pedestrian - there is nothing on the horizon that is likely to jump start the share price.

Compare:
“Costs of raw materials to process the brine water into iodine continued to increase in 2023, however, chemical cost increases in 2023 were lower than those of 2022.”

“During H2 2022, iodine prices peaked and have subsequently slowly come off these highs during 2023 and have currently settled in the mid to upper sixties per kilogram.”

In other words, those supplying chemicals to Iofina were able to raise their prices, but Iofina were not able to pass those increased costs on to their customers. Margins suffer. (Inflation hit 10-15% last year. Why are iodine prices not $77-$80/kg? Everything else has gone up.)

Growth strategy:
IO#10 is so well flagged that it is now a banana skin rather than a possible surprise to the upside. Only a ramp up in plant building (or a surprise maiden dividend) can save us now. How about starting the next plant before the previous one is finished, so those preparing the site finish and then move straight onto the next, those installing equipment do the same? Iofina has the resources to do this - either there is no will to do it, or the economics are just not that good.

Yearly share price chart:
a relentless share price drop from 32p to where we are now. Any more and we will be at the offer price of the share placement 5 years ago (April 1st, 2019) - shares were offered at 16p, which according to the Bank of England’s (very conservative) inflation calculator, is equivalent to 19.74p today. That was the last time I bought Iofina shares. With the current price of 19.77p, I’m effectively up less than 0.03p (1%) a share over FIVE years in real terms. Drinks all round? I think not.

Investor Mood:
The lack of comments on this board show extreme investor apathy as well. In years gone by, when the narrative was good, there was 10 times as many posts on results days. A company does need to focus on the fundamentals, but investors also need to see a story to buy into. Iofina used to trumpet the unique tech, the strategic importance of iodine, the environmentally friendly extraction of a valuable product from waste product, the huge untapped potential of the vast quantities of brine being disposed of every day, the lowest costs of production in the industry, the desire to be the biggest producer in the USA. Many of these ideas are there, but they are buried in the strategic report (did you read that far?) In becoming prudent and conservative, Iofina has become BORING.

There are some value characteristics there, but where is the out, the catalyst that will drive the share price up? Without that Iofina will just plod along. This could be the bottom for the share price, but sometime over the tax year, unless there is a dramatic turnaround, I suspect I’ll be selling my medium-sized stack of Iofina shares to offset capital gains elsewhere.

Anyone care to change my mind?

[this_is_me] 02/5/2024 08:34

What is really impressive4 is that the revenue has more than doubled over the last 5 years and the P/E is only around the 5 mark - far too low for a growth company.

[owenga] 02/5/2024 08:28

It looks like it now takes 9 months to build the new plant rather than 6. I was expecting the latest plant to be online by end of 2nd quarter.Cashflow looks strong though and we are net cashflow positive even after all the capital expenditure.

[beercapafn] 02/5/2024 08:03

I think it is as always "very thin" on detail.

This was a real opportunity to explain in detail THE PLAN".

[owenga] 02/5/2024 07:55

Ebitda down on last year even though revenues were up usd8m. That's disappointing. I thought we were expecting 15m, and only got 11.

[trickydicky1] 01/5/2024 22:37

The Nueva Victoria iodine mining concession lasts only until 2033 (caliche 2057 … go figure).

[severnof9] 01/5/2024 21:30

The SQM Annual Report also indicates an increased cost of production for iodine

Iodine and Derivatives
Iodine and derivatives cost of sales increased 26.1% to US$355.7 million in 2023 from US$282.1 million in 2022. The average cost of sales in the iodine and derivatives business line was US$27.2/kilogram in 2023, an increase of 22.8% from US$22.2/kilogram in 2022. The increase in average cost of sales in the iodine and derivative business line is mainly a result of increased production costs associated with the start-up of new mining operations at Pampa Blanca.

This appears to bear out the suggestion that SQM were not mining new caliche ores but exhausting leach heaps previously mined. Those clearly became exhausted which lead to the start at Pampa Blanca resulting in restarting mining costs.

From recollection I think IOFs cost of production are not dissimilar or are lower than SQMs.

[chillpill] 01/5/2024 10:15

Also from the SQM Annual Report I hadn’t appreciated they have put the Pampa Orcoma project on ice until 2030.

Taking everything into account don’t be entirely surprised if the iodine price moves higher. Especially if the 2500t pa Cosayach Negreiros plant shuts in coming weeks/months as they said in December.

[chillpill] 01/5/2024 08:21

Delay of SQM water pipeline confirmed in Annual Report just released - pushed out a year or more from memory. All backs the higher iodine prices for longer argument.


“In November 2021, the Tarapacá Environmental Assessment Commission environmentally authorized the Tente en el Aire project, which allows the productive capacities of the Nueva Victoria facility to be increased, incorporating seawater for its processes. This project expects to incorporate the use of up to 900 liters per second of seawater, increasing the mine area and allowing for increased production of iodine and nitrate salts. The seawater pipeline is planned to enter into operation by the end of 2026.”

“We have proposed projects which would allow us to use seawater in the future. These seawater projects could face timing issues and uncertainty with permits which make them difficult to develop and construct.”

[andymunchkin] 26/4/2024 18:01

woolybanana 4 Jan '23 - 13:58 - 7024 of 8821
0 0 0
What does anyone think these shares are really worth?
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beercapafn 4 Jan '23 - 15:08 - 7025 of 8821
0 3 0

Wooly:

£ 1.00 by Jan 13th 2023. It is called the one-pound club. Has about 10 members currently. Happy days.

[rambo1122] 26/4/2024 13:46

Buys showing as sells

[naphar] 26/4/2024 08:35

I’d prefer to have been wrong!!

[beercapafn] 26/4/2024 07:38

You were right Naphar.................

[naphar] 25/4/2024 21:14

Think you will be disappointed based on todays price action

[beercapafn] 25/4/2024 14:41

Hoping for a positive RSN in the morning.

[meb123] 25/4/2024 10:59

IOF at max production. I think that is correct . I mean the original plan was 1000 tons . It hasn't got near that and you got to ask yourselves will it ever . Yields from the wells diminish over time and it had to continually replace or build more plants to keep its head over water - no pun intended. Any views on the above welcome as I think 30p is the best it can get to . If it falls further maybe I'll just dabble a bit .

[nellyb] 25/4/2024 10:55

From the iof website:

We are hiring now for the following positions:

Iodine Plant Manager, near Kingfisher OK
Chemical Operator, NW Oklahoma
Chemical Operator, Covington KY