Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[meb123] 15/4/2015 09:31

There seems to be a pattern with this share. Euphoria ( & a price hike ) on recent news including this one, which on the face of it , does not have bad news and re-confirming existing production guidance...but...a slow drift towards 31/32p as we wait for the next RNS.

[superg1] 15/4/2015 09:30

Round

In what way?

I'm guessing you expected a big jump. s pointed out we have had a seller for weeks.

Thought to be CGT but guarded against games, and indeed they did go quiet just before and after the tax year.

That was just a little game to see if they could sell some higher. If you have a keen seller, a buyer is going to wait for you to come to their price, not chase you.

Through logic I have an idea who it may be, but I'm waiting to see if we can confirm that in a day or two, as for now it would be pure speculation.

It won't be Jeff he is still there, just not on the BOD and surely inside.

[odvod] 15/4/2015 09:10

Q : why the text was not "Closing IO1 plant down ... and moving it to the XY location where the optimal production conditions .... and will start adding to the total output at an estimated rate of ..."

[rogerbridge] 15/4/2015 09:03

Extremely encouraging results from a focused management team.
As previous, some are trying to downplay the future prospects and stating ther is not much growth. Complete and utter rubbish. Record production bodes well for the future!
Lance and Tom have a good handle on production and have exceeded my expectations.
IO1was always a prototype and a calculated decision has been made to shut it down. That's what I like to hear, think about the bottom line. We do not know whether it will be mothballed for the time being or moved to another site, but I now TRUST, Tom to make the best decision for us shareholders.

To those saying too little information and what about the review, the rns was a production update and notice of results, what do you expect,

Regarding the review, as has been said it depends on the water decision and whether we receive cash for a JV. I think IOF have done exceedingly well since Tom and Lance have brought IOF back into order. We have had a collapse in the iodine price, part artificial and oil price mayhem. No doubt we will hear about the review with the results.

[roundup] 15/4/2015 09:01

I'm really surprised at the market reaction.

[ridicule] 15/4/2015 08:49

As ever. Agreed SG1

[superg1] 15/4/2015 08:43

I bet a few uncovered T trade folk did a big sigh of relief this morning, I'm not sure they would have had much sleep if the news hadn't appeared this week.

Grab a coffee and set yourselves for the next one.

[superg1] 15/4/2015 08:38

All eyes on the seller now and when that dries up, but the news will have certainly caught the eye of the funds lurking.

With equal attention to the permit of course.

[superg1] 15/4/2015 08:36

Rid

I'm not ignoring the fact that the water decision could have a material impact on any review, from the point of a lump sum for any potential JV.

I'm going for $10 mill in the bank as of now, perhaps more. Personally I didn't want them spending $6 mill or more on say 2 plants, as if they had any glitches that would mean opex would be up overall while they sorted it out.

However I suspect Io5 and 6 saw some overspending.

The forecast cost of plants will be down, and with the oil situation, materials and the costs of construction will be down too.

[crazycoops] 15/4/2015 08:34

john henry 15 Apr'15 - 07:48 - 31505 of 31513 0 1

Good RNS, but doesn't sound like a company expecting very much growth.

At the moment we have what I would describe as Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) where IOF are a self-providing iodine producer, supplying a profitable chemical/derivatives operation. Whether (and how) IOF will become a high growth company will depend on the strategy going forward - with $10m cash and the prospect of double that from a water JV, the real catalyst for a re-rating is yet to come but it is coming, of that I have little doubt.

[che7win] 15/4/2015 08:34

The company has done little wrong in the last year IMHO.Market takes time to catch onto that, but shareholder growth is being created with a safe management in place.If/when iodine prices rise even $10 from here, the $5 dollar margins we enjoy now will become $15 to $20 margins, that's when the business becomes really valuable.At this point, the business is ready for further growth so the market should start looking forward to the strategic review and price in future upside.

[ridicule] 15/4/2015 08:33

Cyber. They will never publicly anticipate when a judicial review will be announced as such a presumption could prejudice the outcome. Your point is exactly the point I was making over the 127m shares.

[richi_rich13] 15/4/2015 08:33

Finally, a solid update without a single excuse. Sounds like Lance and Tom have finally got a good grip on this company. I will be buying back in again over the next few weeks.

Next 6 weeks have water outcome, final results (+/- review). I believe today is also a big day for RB energy (SG can confirm?). Add in all the problems with SQM and this could finally start moving again.

RE. the review, from my correspondence with the company, this got delayed due to IO6 being delayed and then wanting to get a good understanding of its capability. The review then got delayed again as they were anticipating the outcome of water permit and the collapse in oil price. I believe alot of the review has already been implemented r.e. plant operation, potential locations for new sites etc, and just waiting the final decision on the water permit.

Would be good to know about the mini's though, their design was completed ages ago and they seem to have dropped off the radar.

[superg1] 15/4/2015 08:30

My understanding having already asked the company re the review is that it is a fluid process, based on..

Competitors in Chile, specifically how low SQM were prepared to go with the price in their quest to devalue companies they seek to acquire, and to send others into losses.

The oil price crash meant operators completely reviewed their own strategy, so IOF wanted to know where they are going to drill now, to make sure the next plants go in the best possible places. The best ppm and doesn't necessarily mean the best production if operator X is about to go frack mad all around the site causing disruption.

Their immediate concern was to get current plants right and get the costs down, trimming any unnecessary fat.

from my point of view I think the Pennsylvania news will have potentially added a spanner into the works.

With the above, as I said at the time, I didn't want them spending the cash and putting themselves under pressure when we didn't know what anyone else was going to do.

The RB final conclusion will be know shortly. It now seems highly unlikely that SQM will take the price lower due to their circs and the need to get investor confidence back.

There are many more factors and none of them include pushing out some sort of news to support the share price They have shut down io1, I didn't know they would do that, I suggested they did and if the numbers are right move it to OK. It then goes from the lowest producing highest cost plant, to one of the highest producing lowest costs plants, simple really and overall opex drops.

[roundup] 15/4/2015 08:29

A good guide for next qtr. is the statement that they have had record production for the month of March.

[stupidboypike] 15/4/2015 08:27

added a few this morning. I like this RNS. Solid and sensible. Water or not (and I think we will!) this should go a fair bit higher over the next year or two. GLA.
Best regards SBP

[cyberbub] 15/4/2015 08:25

Ridicule I think you're right but why didn't they say so?The point about 127m shares is issue is that we only have a £50m market cap, implying barely £5m profit on a lowly P/E of 10. Seems too low to me, and it also ignores any value from the Iosorb IP, and of course any future expansion!GLA NAI

[escapetohome] 15/4/2015 08:19

hxxp://www.arcontech.com/


The company writes software for dealing with financial market data. As I have kept an eye on it over the years it is very shy and there are often very long periods when there are no news.

Behind the scenes though it appears that they are working on some sort of international settlements study or software for a major infrastructural institution. I havent looked into this much though.



Who is major shareholder Anthony Cross?
A very successful fund manager. I wonder what he knows about this tiny company with a market cap of just £3 million.



Anthony Cross joined Schroder Investment Management as a graduate trainee. He spent his first three years as an equity analyst before joining the Smaller Companies team in 1994. During this time, Anthony identified a number of characteristics common to successful companies and on joining Liontrust in 1997 he was able to develop his thoughts further and create a documented investment process.This process, called Liontrust Economic Advantage, was applied to the Liontrust UK Smaller Companies Fund from the start of 1998. Its success and relevance to the broader market led to the launch of the Liontrust Special Situations Fund in 2005 and the management of the Liontrust UK Growth Fund in 2009. Awards for the funds that Anthony co-manages with Julian Fosh include Liontrust being named Best UK Equity Group by Money Observer magazine, the Liontrust Special Situations Fund being named: Best UK Growth fund at the Investment Week Fund Manager of the Year Awards in 2011 and 2012; Best UK Growth Fund at What Investment magazine; Best Fund in the UK All Companies Sector at the Moneywise Fund Awards 2012; and won the UK Equity Gold Award 2012 from Portfolio Adviser. The fund is also member of the 2012 100 club. Anthony graduated in 1990 from Exeter University with a degree in politics.

[captain_kurt] 15/4/2015 08:14

Judging by past water hearings, the conclusion should come before the iofina results date imo

[woodpeckers] 15/4/2015 08:11

Excellent news, beating hoped for production levels and sensible strategic planning in force.

Good to see them handling expectations carefully despite 'record quarterly and monthly production from our operations.' Seems they have really learnt from past mistakes.

The water hearing comment sounds very promising, Carlisle obviously not happy with the way his objection went.

Well done Lance and the gang.

[ridicule] 15/4/2015 08:10

My understanding is that the strategic review is tied to the water decision. Why would it not be when one considers the CAPEX availability if the water outcome is positive. I also suspect that the BoD anticipate a water decision before the May Finals. The 6 June date is the full 90 days and I hope the decision is not so finely balanced to require the full 90 days.

Another very important point that has not been focused on recently is that IOF have only 127 million shares in issue. This bodes well for a rapid recovery back to the good old days.

[cyberbub] 15/4/2015 07:56

The glaring gap though is any mention at all of the strategic review, even to say when it is expected, or whether it's linked to the water decision etc.Superg, if you are in contact with the company could you ask them please?

[cyberbub] 15/4/2015 07:52

This is very encouraging, and with admin costs reduced further (we will see in the results) then the margin should have increased?I think that by maintaining the old target of 220-260 they are deliberately underpromising, and it might be beaten (or at least be at the top end of that range) even without IO1.Good rational decision to close IO1 if it is possibly losing money.NAI

[che7win] 15/4/2015 07:49

Wow,
Well, my 94Mt kept us on track, 127.9Mt blows that out of the water! The share price indicates market didn't expect production this high IMHO.

So a 172% increase in comparison to the same quarter last year. All metrics are rising nicely here, all those who keep saying no growth, open your eyes, the growth is coming from existing plants with I assume a few io2 types plants to come.

I think we can safely say, the business is on a firm footing, no wonder the Bears have been so nervous.

I agree with Naphar on Io1 closure. Interesting that they want to concentrate on Oklahoma, I wonder if they eventually move IO#1 plant there, might be an opportunity?

It's worth noting, IO1 I estimate was producing at up to 4mt a month, really a test plant and not profitable in this climate.

This shows to me the company are concentrating on the bottom line unlike previous management. They aren't going to produce iodine for the sake of it, only if it creates shareholder value.
That should give a pointer as to how the 2014 results read - optimisation of the bottom line and not just top line growth.

On our iodine opex costs, agree with superg, new plants will be io2 levels of opex, something to look forward to.
Remember, Japan iodine production is amongst the lowest in the world, certainly much lower than Chile, we will be/are in that opex range, the difference being Japanese iodine production is slowly declining and limited to expansion whereas we aren't.

Looking good from here and I'm pleased with this news.

[rhwillcoll] 15/4/2015 07:49

superg1: thanks for your thoughts (post 31504): that makes sense. This is an excellent production RNS, and a great start to the year. A foretaste of much more to come. Well done, Iofina!!