Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[irnbru2] 11/4/2015 22:04

Is this share a scam.....just asking.

[irnbru2] 11/4/2015 22:03

Phsicology?

[freshvoicem] 11/4/2015 22:02

Do you want me to name the street, start with
County Lancashire?
Town ?
Nearest Off-licence ?
Street ?
Number ?

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 11/4/2015 21:54

See Graham, if you really believed that narrative you'd oblige surely? You don't want me here, you say I upset people, yet you say you know my ID. I am giving you the solution Graham, we both win. I would know you are a good digger, and you would get rid of me. I'll still post on the other IOF threads, but not here.

2 letters Graham, and you've won.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 11/4/2015 21:43

Even with a piccy of you sat on your computer signed on to ADVFN, sitting in your Millwall shirt with your passport next to you, would be denied as being you. You can't help it.

So you won't post my ID because I'll deny it? No I won't, you have my word. I know that's something maybe quite novel in these parts. I don't like you or your tricky little ways... but I will stand by my offer.

Post my initials and I'll go.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 11/4/2015 21:29

Now the question is, why would Graham lie? Why won't he simply post my initials?
Is he really saying people will come and see me? Hmmm.... or has he got it wrong? My guess is he's made a basic error, and he needs more info. He has missed something that would probably take years to spot. Haven't you Graham?

You would need a very good program Graham to find it... it's there though.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 11/4/2015 21:05

Did mm3's posts feel like betrayal Graham? Did all those ticks feel like daggers Graham? I am always fascinated by people Graham, I like to give them space. I know what they do Graham, I know the dynamic, I know what holds them together Graham... I know a vaccum exposes raw feelings Graham. Ferrets in a sack mate, they can't help it, it's natural.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 11/4/2015 20:56

Good evening Graham, I sensed you were hovering. I am getting a feeling of tragedy here, of Greek proportions. It starts with nagging doubts, from your closest friends... how it ends you can imagine?

2 letters Graham.

[superg1] 11/4/2015 20:46

Fresh

That's a how long is a piece of string question, because of the variations in ppm and bpd potential at each site, plus any frac disruption and other offline issues.

In order of what I think are the best plants I'd go for io2,io6,io4,io3, io5 and io1, with io2 and 6 being much better than io1 and 5.

So if you had io5 and io1 totally offline then the impact would be minimal compared to io2 and io6 being out of play.

Having just typed that if I'm right about io6 (going on rns comments) then I don't see why those 2 running consistently on high bpd shouldn't do 40mt per month on their own in the Spring to Autumn period.

Once they get going beyond io6 with maybe two more plants in then I'd consider moving io1 over to OK, if the numbers are right to move it v just buying another plant.

Or post adding other plants make io1 redundant at some point, as the moment they do that overall opex falls. The last we knew it was doing about 1 mt per week.

EG if opex is $25 on 500mt, io1 at 50mt and add one at 150 mt, you have the same running costs for 600mt. Then $25 opex becomes $20 per kg.

So due to some early errors on some plant placements they can soon drop their opex dramatically.

There are a few io2 sites out there, and I'm sure they will exploit them going forward. We already know io2 has 300mt plus capability when it gets consistent brines at good rates.

No need to rush, they have been working on getting the first 6 right and I'm happy that they have preserved cash rather than spend it and hit issues.

As it's been the winter period with the cold lowering yields 120mt as a starter would be very nice as all things being equal it would mean higher production in Q2. Anything up towards 135mt and I would be very impressed given all the circs.

For 135 and an equal brine flow for Q2 then I'd expect 150 for Q2.

Even with the couple of dud plants, I think 2 mt per day or more is possible at some point.

Stick 2/3 more plants in the right place and the should sail through 1000mt and well beyond.

Once they are through 1000mt or near it, then IOF become an issue for the majors, not only on the amount but on their opex too.

Cash in the bank has been the priority, but once they are comfortable they should be able to march on, as what Chile and Japan are doing, won't be an issue.

The Chile costs are well known now, and the exchange rate plus all the other factors gives prior warning of where the price of iodine is going.

We also know those Chile opex prices were heavily supported by tax avoidance and fraud.

If they do get the permit, and end up with a decent cash lump sum on a JV, then it's time to move on on a few fronts.

Don't forget good old Pennsylvania and that darn iodide in the produced water, they are going to need someone to remove it. I don't see it as a big increase in iodine production, but having someone pay for the plant and paying for you to remove it, seriously reduces the opex. The lowest injection costs are about 25 cents pb, $8 plus there as they have to take it out of state. Hal's water recycling came out at about $3 pb.

25 cents for 20k bpd = $5k per day or the equivalent of over 1 mt per week.

Although given the other costs above they could probably charge a lot more than 25 cents pb, especially as they are the only company that has viable tech to use in the US. Logic suggests the charge would be IOF cost price plus a margin meaning the iodine production opex would be less than zero.

Will that day come? I don't know, but if they want the iodine out of the brine then there is only one option imo.

All interesting potential, a side show, but it all lowers overall opex.

[freshvoicem] 11/4/2015 19:58

ACT is calling SuperG to out him, hope he does.

[freshvoicem] 11/4/2015 19:56

Given that last May we produced over 40mt of I and we have 'improved performance' since then and 'tweaked' various things and fracking has reduced, what do we think would be acceptable monthly output for this quarter and what would signify ongoing problems?

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 11/4/2015 19:53

I see, you have no incentive to out me? Hmmm... okay, I'll make it worth your while Graham. I like to think I'm a man of my word, so here goes Graham.

If you post or PM me my initials, I will never post on this, or any other thread you frequent. This offer will last until open on Monday.

Alternatively, you may wish to use a different poster/avatar to complete this mission. I am calling your bluff Graham, but if I'm wrong, you will really gain. It's a good deal Graham, consider it carefully.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 11/4/2015 19:02

My my Graham, who's rattled your cage? lol
You see Graham, it didn't take a genius to work out the scam here. No wonder you take all the headers down with the big numbers.
If people are fearful it's not down to me, it's their own crippling doubts.

Name me? Go on then...

[superg1] 11/4/2015 15:58

April 14 news

'Production of iodine for both IO#4 and IO#5 is conditional upon final regulatory inspection and approval.'

=

George forgot to apply for the DEA permit.

Later reports talk of io5 and 6 firing up, with io6 in particular with high rates of brine. However on high rates of brine the ppm x bpd wasn't producing the normal yields, then they found the changes, which they may well have put right by now.

So no lies, the new team were just oblivious to some changes made.

[superg1] 11/4/2015 15:46

Fest

Not so much a lie but a muppet in charge at the time.

Do you recall the permit/documentation before they could start up. That was because George, even though he was advised to do so, failed to apply for the DEA permit to produce iodine. Hence we had weeks of delay waiting for the DEA to do a site visit, then send the necessary paperwork which you have to have in your possession before you can start producing.

No power had been arranged for the site so they were running a generator and a daft cost.

Not only that G and co didn't check the frac schedule for the area, so there wasn't a lot of brine available either.

When they did start it up and get brine levels high (post George), the yields were mysteriously down. What could be wrong? It was a mystery as 2 + 2 = 4, then they noticed some bright spark had made changes at both io5 and 6 meaning yields dropped on higher bpd.

So over the last few months they have had quite a bit to put right, and I agree with them that they needed to optimise the existing plants before moving on.

So hooked up and full tilt wasn't a lie, it just wasn't working as it should, and after a bit of head scratching the new team realised what some idiot had done.

I understand some got the boot over it.

[festario] 11/4/2015 11:47

SuperG, not wanting to drag the whole debate out, but IOF certainly have been guilty of the odd lie, in the past.I'll just mention the rns where IO5 was hooked up and producing at full tilt, but subsequently was found not to be the case.Plus, we are still waiting for payment in Q1 2014, for the so called 'monster' order that was shipped out in late 2013.I'm still here, and still holding, but some of the past nonsense cannot be ignored. I'm expecting an entirely different performance in 2015.

[superg1] 11/4/2015 09:48

Che

SQM have said practically all of their costs are in Pesos, so going from the 2013 range to recent peaks it has gone from 475 to 640, a 35% difference.

Hence $30 per kg now is giving the same return as $40 per kg back then, so a lot of the drop is exchange rate related.

The Yen has seen about a 25% change. So between the two that's 90% of the market.

It's hard to imagine if you look at the Yen and Peso charts, that there is much room left for them to materially weaken further, both are more or less on 10 year weakness levels.

But then we know SQM have intentionally dropped the price to force others into trouble taking some short term pain themselves.

They are on the acquisition hunt imo, and have devalued what they are after. I suspect they will buy the RB iodine mine for a bargain price, pocket the inventory (about 400mt imo) in the liquidation sales, then mothball the mine.


I suspect SCM Bullmine and Algorta have been loss making at these prices as intimated by SQM. I suspect the US other producers are having the same issues. I was told they were sweating profusely well above $30 per kg.

RB imo would be doing break even at best.

All I had on a profit was ACF minera, Cosaych and SQM. However now Cosayach are on pumped seawater, perhaps not stealing water and evading tax, then they will be loss making too as they go forward from here at this price.

SQM are backing the huge fines and orders ($272 mill and rising) against Cosayach will finish them too, and make them a cheap acquisition. I don't expect Cosayach to pay a penny, they will just plough on being the crooks they are on until court asset seizure kick in imo. It's only a few months since that was all known and the IRS tax fraud side has only just begun ($82 mill tax evasion). They had recorded iodine sold at $26 per kg through false company when they were getting double that.

[che7win] 11/4/2015 09:30

Superg,
Good posts.

The Peso against US dollar is roughly at the same price it was in December (although it was higher a month ago).
Looking at the copper price, it's been trending up for the last 6 months, that is a large contributing factor in the Peso stabilising. I should think the Peso will strengthen over time if the copper price keeps increasing.

With regards to iodine, that means that Chile no longer has an increasing competitiveness due to the exchange rate.
As you have mentioned in some articles, the miners are becoming more vocal on conditions. They have lost a lot of their earning power with the devalued Peso, eventually, wage rises will feed through as a result of this.

[superg1] 11/4/2015 09:25

BTW

re OBT

Having just mentioned African minerals and 20 mill shares, all pointers suggest those have gone as of Friday. With them being so dominant on the sell side it's been hard to pick up on any others out there. The volume picked up Friday.

Just about everyone I know thinks the 23p bid rumour which has been out in 2 or 3 papers carries weight, the company have failed to deny it or confirm it. I think that has something to do with our good old friendly nomads. The thoughts are they told the 23p bidder to buzz off as they think that is too low.

So imo one to watch for a potential bounce near term. News should come out soon but what and whether it's good or not I can only guess. It's been bumping off a 12/13p ceiling for some time.

Our friend Heart has appeared, it's a troll stalking thing. I note none of them have done the same re FUM or Cloudbuy, funny that as ACT/Jonny/N3 invest in those.

[superg1] 11/4/2015 09:06

BTW

To the genuine nice folk here, and there are lots of you.

No, I'm not on a rampage, or negative re IOF. IMO I have been polite enough to some folk for a considerable time, but I also know some of these keyboard warriors that post virtually nothing of use on any thread scare some here to the point they fear to post.

Well just know, all the ones I'm aware of are at best are infirm.

I suspect IOF is about to move on re performance, and the company will do the talking, hence there will be no need for exchanges here other than the odd find the market may have missed.

The market does miss things as I'm currently (with another) looking at another share, the lab results for some of their R and D products that haven't been mentioned in news by them. One product is potentially huge and we are trying to establish if it's proven to work. The web is great, get researching your own portfolio, there is bound to be something relevant out there.

Look at the OBT scenario I was monitoring the African minerals situation (going bust and holding 20 mill obt shares) before the company or investors knew anything about it.

It just takes a bit of effort, and it can pay off at times. GDL was another as I knew from their own data, what they said in an rns, which set the share price alight, was impossible and therefore a lie.

It's nothing to do with skill, it's just the amount of effort you put in, don't trust what a company says, check out what they say.

If I thought IOF had lied I'd have been gone long ago. They have the resources they say they have, execution and delivery has been the issue, some of which was caused by a very unfortunate illness.

They are right, it's a niche sector with little competition and they are or have moved to being the lowest cost producer and will get that price lower. They are not some wannabe small gold miner with costs twice the price of gold. They are the only growing company in the US in the sector and virtually have a free run of growth in the US. The US imports 80% of it's iodine.

The only interest in Chile is to track the potential move in the price of iodine. In opex and capex terms they can't compete, so on that point we can switch off as Chile opex is set to rise strongly through the next year or two while IOF's opex will drop. No doubt it has already dropped Q1 v Q4 and will drop again in Q2.

[superg1] 11/4/2015 08:43

ACT

As you are back I had a quick look. I suggest you back off with all the false rubbish you post, I'm nothing like the other folks you battle with.

You can't get under my skin, you can't deter me, you can't win with your little troll attempted fear thing that you inflict on others, trying to drive them off threads.

I'm not anonymous, you are, and you know you are only anonymous by the choice of decent folk like me that choose not to name you.

You have a problem it's called alcohol.

All your foul comments and threats are unacceptable, get off the beer, get some help.