Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[ridicule] 25/2/2015 11:16

Well folks, at least we have a more measured debate going which is what all these boards should be about. Che7win and superg1. I was a proponent of dropping monthly production updates because as the BoD themselves pointed out, it led to uneccesary share price volatility. But that is not what I was referring to in my 30277 post, it was the requirement to keep us abreast of why matters from around last October to date - strategic review; water outcome, IO Plant deployment, have become opaque.

In terms of the BoD responsibility to ensure the share price rises SG quoted:

The market trends to do what the hell it likes with the SP, the company has no control over that whatsoever, they look after the business and the share price will eventually look after itself.

Superg1 the above comment is from your 30279 post. Is that not placing responsibility on the Company to ensure the share price rises? We are talking here about cause and effect. By looking after the business, including good communication when matters fail to materialise, will ensure the share price will rise (or look after itself) as you say. I think that is what I was saying. I have never relied on market hype (Tung) or herd instinct of the market to govern my investment decisions. I have always relied on good management to keep me informed when matters do not pan out as predicted or as previously announced.

Chey7win I do not think I said what you have attributed to me in 32078,reoeated below:

"We don't need a constant stream of RNSs to keep shareholders interested, institutions will come on board when they see we are cash flow positive."

I am not looking for a constant stream of RNS's, just good communication when matters do not turn out as the Board indicated. As a portfolio manager, rather than a one trick pony follower this is key to me.

[1madmarky] 25/2/2015 11:15

Re strategic plan : think they will wait until greater visibility of iodine pricing and water news.
SQM 's power to move the iodine price lower must be starting to ebb. Due to lower production stock levels should have been reduced now for all producers. India import volumes suggest that the surplus / overhang has been eaten up.
once they are comfortable with the prospects for iodine price going forwards then perhaps they will commit to a plan. GLA

[captain_kurt] 25/2/2015 10:58

Bears jumping up and down on the other threads. Ridicule has a point imo
February coming to a close and the market is none the wiser on Iofina's strategic plans for 2015.

[alphacharlie] 25/2/2015 10:46

ridicule - your post 25 Feb'15 - 09:45 - 30277 of 30281

'Absurd' or not, seems you have a degree of support to your views.

[che7win] 25/2/2015 10:46

GKP today shows how out of line share prices get...

[bocker01] 25/2/2015 10:35

If the Board delivers the share price will eventually go up. We're suffering because of a constant stream of promises designed to prop up the share price that was matched by utter failure by the previous management. This management appears to have everything well under control and appears to focussing on delivering a credible platform before announcing what it has done and what it plans to do. Of course this is slow and frustrating but in the longer term a better basis for a sustained share price rise without the past volalatility. AIMYHO

[iofra] 25/2/2015 10:35

The company's objective as stated by Lance is to improve shareholder value.

One of the difficulties with the perception has to be from the November RNS:

'The Company’s management team is in the process of finalising its next business growth plan and intends to update the market on the Company’s plans for 2015 and beyond once this process is fully complete.'

So here we are 2 months into 2015 and there hasn't been an update of plans for 2015.

It is probably due to the water situation but there has been no holding statement either.

[superg1] 25/2/2015 10:12

Rid

I don't mean to offend you but that comment is absurd

"the BoD has an obligation to shareholders to ensure that the share price rises"

The market trends to do what the hell it likes with the SP, the company has no control over that whatsoever, they look after the business and the share price will eventually look after itself.

I watch a lot of shares, a few newbie shares have tried some extremely bullish comments to repair falling share prices in news, then thrown out some more news. It doesn't work as most funds are sat on cash and will stay that way until this market sorts itself out.

Small caps are well off the radar right now. Oil sorting itself out will be a key feature imo. One minute the media says it will be $200 pb, when the lack of investment over the next year or two filters through, and others say $10 pb this year.

A broker did a comprehensive report and came up with $80 by the year end.

No use at all any of that, if they all had predicted the drop to $40 this year, when it was on $100 pb, then that would have been impressive.

No one knows for sure, so they just sit and wait.

They were all shouting about gold going to race through $2000 and $3000 not so long ago.

[che7win] 25/2/2015 10:05

Ridicule,
I disagree.

I don't think management are here to serve traders, IOF owners (short term or long term) need to get past that idea of a constant stream of RNS's.

IOF management and IOF as a company has matured into a profitable enterprise.

We don't need a constant stream of RNSs to keep shareholders interested, institutions will come on board when they see we are cash flow positive.

We still have quarterly iodine updates, that is sufficient.

As for the non-core water, there is nothing there to RNS so what does anyone expect?
Do we want a non news RNS like TUNG issued yesterday? That was as sure a sell signal as a shorter could wish for over night.

No, we have been through the cold turkey reduction of RNSs, that is the sign of long term maturing of the business.
H
The strategy is dependent on iodine, water, oil or a combination of all three, I'm satisfied where we are as a business right now and more importantly, the potential to be realised.

The share price will look after itself, we have a strong balance sheet, a strong company set up for sustainable and strategic growth, if the share price wants to swing, let it but the pendulum will be directed by the business performance, nothing else.

[ridicule] 25/2/2015 09:45

Somebody said on this thread the other day that PIs should not expect a falling share price to be supported by a plethora of company RNS's and that such punters never complained about RNS's when the share price was rising. Well actually, the BoD has an obligation to shareholders to ensure that the share price rises, so I would not expect PIs to feel they needed to comment other than offer praise under such circumstances.

My point about the IOF BoD's silence at this time is that share price is suffering and this does damage stock market performance of that share over a protracted period. This is because sentiment turns against the share. Under these circumstances, there are always willing sellers into even quite modest rises, keeping the share in a moribund price range. This has the effect of trapping value investors funds that could be working in better situations unless such investors are prepared to sell at a loss; a self-defeating process if the long term investment is still believed in.

Liquidity of monetary choice is vital for traders, but is also vital for value investors if they want to keep, even a long-term portfolios, capable of managing the result and x-dividend cycles of the companies within their portfolios by varying holdings across them to suite. This cannot be easily achieved unless there is a degree of readily available liquidity within the overall portfolio.

I accept positively transforming news on any share will sweep away these observations, but in the absence of such news, IOF could do a much better job than they are doing by keeping the market informed on their strategy review and the investment plan for iodine production units, both mobile and static, and to what extent the water outcome has impact on such plans. If they did this, I am sure the share price would be higher and sentiment improved.

[rogerbridge] 25/2/2015 09:28

Still around, in the Emerald Isle at the minute. Terrible problems with internet connection, back in blighty tomorrow.
A lot of flack on the thread at the minute, price coming back to bargain levels.
Qute happy here, IOF is a profitable company say no more, bye.

[jbe81] 25/2/2015 08:56

Nice opportunity for you to pick up more cheap shares! Tide to turn in the next couple of days

[superg1] 25/2/2015 08:32

The herd punter theory seems to be stacking up this morning. No rns and a few more filing out through the door.

So far punts of between £300 and £1000, all lost money I suspect. No pleasure in that, I'm just stating what seems obvious.

[che7win] 25/2/2015 08:30

Thanks superg, That was a sitting duck and no competitive moat, it reached over 400p with little tangible assets.It just needed patience, breaking 200p was another invitation for shorters.

[superg1] 25/2/2015 08:17

Che

I see that TUNG line keeps going the same way. Excellent call you made there some time back.

[che7win] 25/2/2015 07:56

It's the squiggly line that will give the game away, a bowl formation forming on the chart, early days as we need to continue up from here but 12 month highs by summer if it forms.

[superg1] 25/2/2015 07:48

Cyber

A fund or two buying is better support than a squiggly line on a graph. I would imagine those folk may wait to see the outcome re water before committing. It also gives them time to view the iodine market situation as we move through H1.

We should spot it first on both counts.

[superg1] 25/2/2015 07:20

SQM

Something I've just spotted that helps forecast their intent. In very late 2013 they closed a mine and shut down the Iris plant plant. They were very cagey in news and conference calls prior to that, and since. They have in some cases refused to answer questions on their strategy.

I didn't realise they record employee numbers each quarter. The Iris plant and El Toco mine closed in Oct and Nov/Dec in 2013.

Quarterly employee numbers below

31/3/13 peak employee number 5,647

5647 Q1 13
5360
4911
4792 31/12/13
4702
4680
4584 Q3 14

So they had dropped 736 staff by the end of Q3 13 then came the mine and plant closures.

Q1 13 to Q1 14 they got rid of 945 staff.

The total to date is a drop of 1063 staff.

The trend continued in 2014, so clearly no expansion plans were, or are in play. Year end results out soon so we should be able to see how many staff they have now.

[cyberbub] 24/2/2015 22:43

Let's hope the 50 SMA offers a bit of support.... sigh....

[superg1] 24/2/2015 18:35

Due to the size of it and the pattern it seems to be a one block sell order with a set price, otherwise the odd nibble would come. It didn't sell slightly higher the other day, and now a bit lower it's still not been picked up.

No doubt it will appear pre open tomorrow on the auction.

That's why I decided to get level 2 again as I could see a few were coming to the end of recent overhangs. The end of day action tends to give the best indication. IOF has an end of day auction, many don't.

I've been watching one for a long time but the Black rock red flag stands over it. To my complete surprise (NOT) a BR holdings rns came out, and some weird volumes since, with no investor interest at all for some time.

It's nearly down to a point where no one in it will be in profit, which may be the time to have a look at it, ASSUMING BR are out. PIs are very reluctant to take a loss.

[awolagain] 24/2/2015 17:17

I use a very basic view of the trades and have seen quite a few non UT days....don't know why, was wonder if we don't have any trades going into the close then they have balanced the books already?

That 74K shares I thought went yesterday? maybe they are waiting for a price we have not had over the last few trading days?
I have feeling we might see a quick run down in the morning and equally quick recovery.

Thanks

Awol

[superg1] 24/2/2015 16:57

Awol

No UT trade today it seems, generally in the end of day action (when I last has L2), the offer dips below the bid and bids go above the offer, then it seems how many overlap ends up as the uncrossing trade that we normally see.

I don't fully understand that part someone might be able to explain it, but generally I expect a cross over if one or the other is aggressive.

74,400 shares popped on the offer 36.5, they were around first thing this morning and no doubt will be around tomorrow.

Thoughts are that it is a PI one hit sell, we'll see when it is eventually taken out.

Calming down today, was my impression but we'll see what happens in the next few days.

[bogg1e] 24/2/2015 16:30

SG, Ooooh be careful about QFI. You know i am grateful for your research and IOf is my second holding and its thanks to mostly your research, BUT never underestimate the sheer potential of QFI. II's increasing their net holdings monthly and have been for years, Barclays for example. Also, the BoD are in Saudi atm, so im hopeful for another plant order v soon and revised figures for Ecopetrol. Theres enough good stuff to keep the share price afloat for a while yet, but we'll see. IOF on the other hand, i think i can now safely say that we have turned the corner after 2 years of frustration on many fronts. Revenues, production and iodine price all set to start a virtuous cycle for IOF. The pay back time on an IO plant or mobile is incredible if we get to $50+, which i expect soon. Jap offtakes, more plants, hopefully water. The only way is up from here me thinks. Missed the buy op at 30.5. looking for low thirties before topping up.

[superg1] 24/2/2015 16:16

Ticking away Awol. Some better placed folk think it's just the overflow of bets thinking news re an outcome would be out within a day or two of the hearing.

Rowan D had just over 300k left as of the 16th, they has been sellers down to 30 dumping shares proviously bought in th 50's and 60's.

Wins MM had 400k then down from 700k.

Nothing else of note from that sell wise. So it could be wins and RD who are in the supply stakes, along with the T trade folk, and quick buck one hit wonders.