Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bobsworth] 29/1/2015 00:06

Great research SG and very much appreciated by me and fellow investors.
It's certainly got our twilight derampers rattled, bless them!
Looks to me like they going to have their work cut in the coming months when Iofina turn their news tap on again, post the water rights objection hearing!

[superg1] 28/1/2015 23:25

Sand

Have they not indicated fund raising due soon due to their plan?

[heartwell] 28/1/2015 23:23

Correct monkey magic. End of Jan and no review. I wonder what is wrong ?

[superg1] 28/1/2015 23:18

OT (not iof)

763 and counting. :-).

[superg1] 28/1/2015 23:13

If Corfo A section of the government win. That's 38% of SQM's business gone.

If water rights get suspended that's 70% of their iodine business gone, plus others in the market at the location.

60% of SQMs business is at risk, which IS relevant as they split costs as they choose across the sector for some like processes.

Boring as it may be, best to get a grip of it before the event rather than wondering why volumes change.

They are not slim risk events, some are high risk and potentially very near. Some currently look inevitable.

If any come about I expect iodine prices to hike as before in 2011. Half of that will do, there is not the iodine inventory about and no quick fix available this time.

I note the FT are now going on about the copper troubles in Zambia. A matter which I mentioned recently.

If the copper price goes up, the peso comes down + iodine prices up.

So all worth knowing imo when IOF is in the 30's

[cyberbub] 28/1/2015 22:39

LOL Festario.I know what you mean MM3, we deserve an update on the 'strategic review' plans for the roll-out, sooner rather than later. If anyone has a line to management (Mt Big where are you??) then please give them a boot!! I can only assume that they are waiting to (touch wood) confirm the water permit before giving a comprehensive update...GLA

[che7win] 28/1/2015 22:07

Sandbag,
Thanks for the nudge, it's performing well, I'm just not a fan of IT stocks.

[festario] 28/1/2015 21:32

Spazmongistan is renowned as being the most politically incorrect country in the world, beating Niger, (yes, a genuine country) into 2nd place.

[thailand] 28/1/2015 21:27

Spazmongistan have some good players,mm3. They're no pushovers.

[monkeymagic3] 28/1/2015 21:22

Apologies for being a pedant but wouldn't all this endless posting on SQM, cosaych, iodine prices etc etc be far more interesting (and relevant) if we were actually getting some decent volume of the stuff out of the ground (or at least had a bloody plan too)?

Plants in the wrong place, no new ones, no mobiles etc or is Iofina just reliant on doing well through "circumstance"?

A bit like when England have to wait for Spazmongistan to lose in qualifiers to get through because they can't win enough games themselves.

[superg1] 28/1/2015 21:04

A bit more re SQM, they seized their accounting records recently.

SQM leading role
The increasingly prominent role of SQM and Ponce in the Penta case complicated and could climb to the SEC, the regulator of US securities since confirmed that the non-metallic mining issued ideologically false, whose recipients were political ballots campaign, the company may violate Practices Act Foreign Corrupt established by the SEC, the regulated entity being referred ADR issuer.
The SQM edge in case Penta joins Cascades and makes Julio Ponce back to the center of a scandal.
Few days, close to the firm said they have been surprised by the allegations of receiving ballots or political bills for services not rendered ago, which would set the offense of false ballots ideologically.
According to sources, SQM's board approved at the time the contribution to political campaigns and the monies were delivered by legal means of Servel.
And although they are confident that there would be irregularities in other avenues of funding sources do not rule out completely that executive level may be cases of different contributions to approving the directory.
What worried the company was that Wagner had appeared payments amid the tender Lithium, when he was still secretary. Wagner also faces a lawsuit by the State Defense Council (CDE) for not detecting the failure of the bases by SQM and having granted the tender nevertheless.

[naphar] 28/1/2015 21:00

Hope you are right there Roger! Does seem to be a bit more strength of late. Long may this short term (so far) rising trend continue. Water news, maybe by March, if not a few weeks later at latest, hopefully the long awaited PDTG.

Lots to look forward to.

[sandbag] 28/1/2015 20:35

Che / Super,

"I don't want to pay fair prices, I want great companies at a bargain price!"

Take a look at the calibre of major investors in Castleton (CTP). That should whet your appetite enough to do some research.

[roger melly] 28/1/2015 16:41

It's better than the one for the last 2 yrs...
Turn that one on it's head from next month imo

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 28/1/2015 16:21

Get used to that daily chart look.

[crosseyed] 28/1/2015 15:29

superg1,

I haven't been away, just lurking and admiring your prolific research:}

Regards in-house production costs, I fully expect the unit cost to steadily decline though I derive the average over 2014 to be $29/kg.

cyberbub,
Hopefully in-house production can be expanded sufficiently to provide both IOChem and direct sales. In the first instance, as the economics stand at the moment, IOChem derivatives production would surely be the first choice. I understand that the present manufacturing facilities could immediately be doubled by operating a second shift which would involve little or no capital expenditure and presumably a roughly pro rata increase in variable costs, mainly labour, power and distribution costs; though unit costs might actually come down. It's nice though to have direct sales as an option particularly if (or when) the market price increases substantially.

monts,
Are you assuming that the chemical division won't increase their derivative prices in line with rising iodine prices?
Not at all, which would further add to the attraction of expanding production of derivatives. However, it takes longer to adjust derivatives prices due to pre-arranged contracts and not wishing to upset loyal customers - as superg1 said, IOF held prices long after big increases in the market price following the Japanese tsunami.

c

[superg1] 28/1/2015 14:42

Monts they will

Down when down and up when it goes up. All about customer loyalty and fair play.

They did their customer perk back ion 2011/2120 when they didn't raise prices and honoured contracts.

Unlike SQM who of course hiked prices 25% in 2008 due to tight supply when they were sitting on inventory but claimed it had been significantly reduced..

These folks are fixing ballots, tenders, leases, share prices, tax evasion.

To think over the last few years I looked at news and reports thinking 'that can't be right. As the tide goes ebbs away a rather different list of facts is appearing. IF if dig deep into it.

[monts12] 28/1/2015 14:27

crosseyed
Are you assuming that the chemical division won't increase their derivative prices in line with rising iodine prices?
If so, why?

[cyberbub] 28/1/2015 14:26

Crosseyed, I think the hope is that iodine plant production levels can be considerably increased (more plants/better sites etc)... so they can fulfil IOchem demand AND sell raw iodine also!I think/hope we will start seeing the share price turn upwards in the coming days.GLA

[superg1] 28/1/2015 14:19

Cross

Glad you appeared.

For the current rate assume under 25 production costs. Some plants are under 20, and once it all beds in the plan is for overall costs to be under 20 per kg.

[crosseyed] 28/1/2015 14:14

IOF has two choices on how to use its produced iodine:
a) as derivative products manufactured through IOChem; or
b) through direct sales as raw iodine.

According to my understanding of the (known and derived) financial data as regurgitated through my financial model, IOChem generates profit of about $29 per kg of iodine used. That is determined on the average cost of iodine from the IOsorb plants, ie in-house produced iodine, of about $29/kg though with increased volumes, the IOsorb unit cost could, and arguably should, be about $20/kg.

That would suggest the market price of iodine would need to rise to $50-60/kg before it would be worth diverting in-house iodine from derivatives production in favour of direct raw iodine sales. The proviso of course is that the market for derivative products can be expanded.

c