Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 26/1/2015 18:36

Right, digging complete back to 2000 and it's interesting (well to me anyway).

What is the point of all the effort?

As we know a number of mines are facing individual problems that could see their own production wiped out.

In 2011 two events knocked the market.

Cosayach being hit on water theft taking them from 6000 mt plus to around 2000 mt.

The Japan earthquake temporarily affected about 25% of their production which would be about 1,500 mt. That issue was soon rectified but the Cosayach problem wasn't.

SQM however from 2009 seemed to have 5000mt plus of inventory which then appeared to be decimated in the following year to 2012 with iodine climbing to $100 per kg.

I assume Cosayach didn't have much of an inventory, but if they did you can be sure they were selling it like mad when the price went up.

There couldn't have been much other inventory about judging by the price surge.

The point is that if a problem hits now it would appear inventories must be low, as having taken figures from SQM reports it all adds up to them probably being at critical inventory levels. They can't fill a gap in the market like they could in 2011. It would seem a far smaller blip in the market will have the same effect.

I'll list the figures and stick it in one of the other thread headers, but first I have to make sense of them all.

They are figures straight out of SQM reports form 20 F 2002 to 2013.

[superg1] 26/1/2015 16:26

I've just found an interesting SQM comment from 2008 which may shed some light on what inventory they currently have.

They made a vague comment recently and don't want to show their hand, but the 2008 comment now gives me a fair idea of their potential inventory level now.

More later when I've done the maths, but it seems their inventory based on what was said should be low now.

A fluke spotting it while skimming through things.

[che7win] 26/1/2015 15:27

Chart if it plays out looks like mid-40s by mid-Feb, but early days.

[superg1] 26/1/2015 14:53

Just waiting. Personally I think the time to get them is when nobody else is.

EG if some prominent tipsters suggest a price entry and exit point, then you need to work a margin inside both as that won't be their plan.

The general rule I understand is that you get within 15% of either a top or bottom it's a very good call.

I don;t mind saying this. I think many silent folk waiting to buy would hope for 30p. They can't all get 30p and we know what MMs do when they sense some action.

They will simply move the price to where they think they can maintain action. Obviously a supply glut or shortage can determine how far the move is.

[joestalin] 26/1/2015 14:20

Thanks, SG.

I am looking for another top up before the 19th Feb. I think that could see the end of the 30-40p range especially if news of a JV is released.

[superg1] 26/1/2015 14:05

Joe

lol

It's the misconception that has me poised too.

I've just been waiting to see what happens post that initial volume rush and when it dies down.

I know the targets some have.

A pure gamble that some good news doesn't come in the next week or two to upset things.

As for Chile news, I think folks find it too boring to keep checking. I have spotted some relevant dates in some areas.

The Cosayach case (recent listing found), I believe the gov are after them but I don't know what for yet.

If I was SQM I'd sue for loss of earnings through theft of SQM water which gave Cosayach around a 2000mt production yearly increase rate (stopped May 14).

[joestalin] 26/1/2015 13:58

I agree too, but not until I have bought a few more....

[angel of the north] 26/1/2015 13:55

'eegbvi' - on LSE
'As to the oil price unfortunately IOF is
listed under oil and gas so it gets hit by the
market perception of low oil price. It should
perhaps instead be listed under chemicals
and maybe the BoD should look at that'.

I agree with this statement.

[neddo] 26/1/2015 12:06

has nutters taken an overdose , ?

[superg1] 26/1/2015 10:12

iofra

It's near impossible to accidental OD on iodine. The only case I see is in nuclear events and worried folks in the area take too many potassium iodide tablets when they should just take one as they are high strength.

Billions don't get enough and it causes many problems.

Chlorine is a poison too but people swim in it. That causes a swift death in certain circs.

I repeat, not about world demand just something I spotted on the health benefit front.

Most UK folks probably have iodine deficiencies.

[iofra] 26/1/2015 08:53

Iodine poisoning
Iodine is a naturally occurring chemical. Small amounts are needed for good health. However, large doses can cause harm. Children are especially sensitive to the effects of iodine.

NOTE: Iodine is found in certain foods. However, there is normally not enough iodine in foods to harm the body.


IODINE TOXICITY
Chronic toxicity may develop when intake is > 1.1 mg/day. Most people who ingest excess amounts of iodine remain euthyroid. Some people who ingest excess amounts of iodine, particularly those who were previously deficient, develop hyperthyroidism (Jod-Basedow phenomenon). Paradoxically, excess uptake of iodine by the thyroid may inhibit thyroid hormone synthesis (called Wolff-Chaikoff effect). Thus, iodine toxicity can eventually cause iodide goiter, hypothyroidism, or myxedema. Very large amounts of iodide may cause a brassy taste in the mouth, increased salivation, GI irritation, and acneiform skin lesions. Patients exposed to frequent large amounts of radiographic contrast dyes or the drug amiodarone also need to have their thyroid function monitored.

Diagnosis is usually based on thyroid function and imaging test findings (see Laboratory Testing of Thyroid Function), which are correlated with clinical data. Iodine excretion may be more specific but is not usually measured.

Treatment consists of correcting thyroid abnormalities and, if intake is excessive, dietary modification.


Elemental iodine (I2) is toxic if taken orally. The lethal dose for an adult human is 30 mg/kg, which is about 2.1–2.4 grams Excess iodine can be more cytotoxic in the presence of selenium deficiency.[59] Iodine supplementation in selenium-deficient populations is, in theory, problematic, partly for this reason.[39] Its toxicity derives from its oxidizing properties, which make it able to denaturate proteins (including enzymes).

Elemental iodine is also a skin irritant, and direct contact with skin can cause damage, so iodine crystals should be handled with care. Solutions with high elemental iodine concentration such as tincture of iodine and Lugol's solution are capable of causing tissue damage if their use for cleaning and antisepsis is prolonged; similarly, cases have been reported where liquid Povidone-iodine (Betadine) trapped against the skin resulted in chemical burns.[60]

[superg1] 26/1/2015 08:19

Got this be email as the poster doesn't want to post it but surely worth it as it's the most relevant post ever. imo

Arlington Chetwynd Talbot 29036 of 29045


"Let's not forget this is a poison."


Great advice, use filter folks.

[1madmarky] 26/1/2015 08:05

The iodine supplements sound great, just would not want mine sourced from Japan or west coast USA kelp. I glow in the dark from my morning bowl of ready brek already ;-)

[superg1] 26/1/2015 08:02

Interesting about the Japanese who have a high iodine diet anyway. For those that move away from Japan and the food lifestyle, cancer rates go up.

I recall taking horrible kelp tablets for fitness many moons ago.

I mention it as an interesting health supplement more than iodine demnd

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 26/1/2015 00:39

It's one thing losing people's money Graham, quite another poisoning them.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 26/1/2015 00:31

Moderate toxicity is typically marked by elevated levels of thyroid stimulating hormone, or TSH, in the bloodstream. Moderate toxicity, which can occur at levels above the tolerable upper limit, may result in hypothyroidism, or insufficient production of thyroid hormones that regulate metabolism of food nutrients. Consumption of more than 1,700 micrograms of iodine per day may cause goiter, or enlargement of the thyroid gland, according to the Linus Pauling Institute.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 26/1/2015 00:29

The recommended daily intake of iodine for adults is 150 micrograms, according to the Linus Pauling Institute at Oregon State University. However, the tolerable upper limit, which represents the maximum safe dosage, is 1,100 micrograms for adults.

[joeblogg2] 26/1/2015 00:24

Super ok read article properly now. Looks ok. Tablets come in 125mg,150mg so need to take more than 1.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 26/1/2015 00:12

You need to top-up another mill mate, hire a proper media/PR machine.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 26/1/2015 00:11

Bad w/e for UKIP Banksy? This kind of media coverage is exactly what you don't want.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 26/1/2015 00:09

Let's not forget this is a poison.

[joeblogg2] 25/1/2015 23:56

Super article quotes 12500mg , thats a lot!! Should it be 125mg ?

[superg1] 25/1/2015 19:59

Monty

When we consider that the Yen has weakened by 50% ish and the peso by 40% ish it gives an idea of the leverage situation should things turn.

Most of Chile and Japanese fixed costs are paid in their currency but the iodine currency is dollars.

$45 was 3510 yen in early 2013.

3510 yen is now $30.

More or less a perfect match on those prices re the currency fluctuation.

Iodine prices should rise this year for various reasons mentioned. You start talking a $50 price on these exchange rates and it's the equivalent of $75 per kg on the prior exchange rate.

[superg1] 25/1/2015 19:04

I bet someone that reads this goes out and gets some iodine supplements this week.



I know I'm right as I will be getting some.

I recall a report recently where a guy is trying to challenge the use of Chlorine in swimming pools, he wants iodine based products used.