Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[freshvoicem] 28/1/2015 13:23

ROGER MELLY 28 Jan'15 - 12:58 - 29118 of 29124 5 2 (Filtered)

[superg1] 28/1/2015 13:20

Don't take Roger too seriously.

I take it as in-character posts. I recall the days of eagerly awaiting the next issue of the Viz.

An example for non vizzers.

[odvod] 28/1/2015 13:16

I do not speak spanish :(

[superg1] 28/1/2015 13:13

Coricco don't slip back into your old trading manipulation posts. I like the 'new' you.;-)

[superg1] 28/1/2015 13:09

The full picture is in the finances thread header. I have been updating it over the last couple of days.

There is a lot of info and I need to add and tweak things as I go through other bits.

But I will pick some bits out. The one thing that has struck me from the figures and 2011 circs is what looks like a bit of a con by SQM.

EG.

In 2008 they said 'we have significantly reduced our inventory' they produced 8,300mt and sold 10,500mt.

They added a note saying they would over-produce in 2009 to catch up.

As if to prove a point re the supply they announced 25% iodine price increases for Q4 2008.

Market crash 2009 produced 10,100 sold 7,200 a gain of 2,900 mt.

However in 2010 the guys that didn't buy in 2009 came flying in.
8,800 produced 11,900mt sold.

So the 2009 gain was wiped out, and that meant their significant reduction in 2008 (plus 25% price rise) has had a further 200mt knocked off it. So based on what they said surely now they were low on inventory.

2011 Cosayach hit 4000mt offline, Japan hit 25% of their production offline temporarily.

2011 SQM produced 10,000 and sold 12,200mt in a market where prices were flying.

2012 Prices high, produced 10,900 sold 11,000.

2011 tells you they weren't being honest in 2008 and they hiked the price.

2012 tells us that the inventory cupboard is empty.

So in 2009 they potentially had 5,200 mt of inventory. When the troubles hit they added around 2,500 mt into the market. Algorta had started by then so they were adding to the market supply. I suspect Japan had some inventory and no doubt Cosaych too.

The Japan issue was temporary. The Cosayach figure was 4000mt. In that crisis the production had jumped by 2,500 in 2013 from the 2008 figure. I can attribute the jump to the Iris plant/ mine and the El Toco mine being re-opened to cash in. As soon as the price dropped below 50 they closed both of those mines.


So at which point was their a big market gap in supply to justify $100 per kg.

SQM milked it, they had inventory and cashed in.

This time around SQM have very little inventory ('normal operating inventory'). They closed the two high cost mines taking production in 2014 probably down to 8,300 to 8,500 mt.
They had a surplus in 2013 as the two mines stayed open but they needed cover.
1,500 mt over in 2013.

2104 H1 they sold at a rate of 8,960 mt per year H2 is normally lower.

In conference calls analysts ask. "Why don't you just up production, take the price down and clean the market up (push Bullmine and others out of Business).
Great idea and perfectly logical.

SQM couldn't do that due to the high cost mines which they still haven't announced as closed.

One year they gave the sold figure as their produced as

2011

'We produced 37% of the world's iodine' (a lie)
which back then would mean about 12,200 of the 30,000 market

2011 figures. Produced 10,000 mt sold 12,200 mt.

Are you getting there now.

So
when last year SQM reported falling below 30% of the market share it was about stating facts, not the fiction of the past.

2012/2013 production was 10,800 and 10,900 mt. 800mt more than the claimed 37% of the market in 2011.

In a recent comment they said they have fallen to 28% of the market and wanted to get to their normal 30% ??? They also quote a market of 32,000 mt. So 8,960mt.

Closed mines mean they are roughly around the 8,500mt, They didn't announce they opened the mines for the problem years, and haven't announced they closed them either.

What they do say was that they had made significant savings on costs. Analysts love that. What they didn't say was that most of it was down to closing 2 mines and laying off 750 staff, with an eventual total including outside contracts of over 3000.

SQM can't open those mines the price is too low. They took the price here to stop Cosayach and RB getting good money for their excess iodine. RB 800mt inventory build up, Cosayach 2000mt added via water theft.

SQM know both are in the poop, and they know Algorta and Bullmine have high costs.

So right now it seems SQM don't have a decent inventory for any blip. They can't add those mine as they are loss making. They have rid themselves of 1000's of staff.

It's a false market and to some extent it was in 2011 (my conspiracy theory based on the figures). However now it's on a knife edge, without the back up inventory of 2011.

The suggestion is end users have little inventory too.

So a trip now and there will be no false market just not enough iodine to supply the market.

Something has to crack and it doesn't need any blip for that to happen. However if there is a blip, or 2 or 3 or 4, which there most likely will be. Then the market will see chaos.

Such a blip won't get seen by Mr Market and they won't have a clue re the impact. If you are a waiting buyer than the water hearing disruption has been very handy.

All imo DYOR. details building in the TA/finances thread header

[woolybanana] 28/1/2015 13:00

Please, chaps, a little less foul language; if you must, be inventive and original, not just using gutter language.

[odvod] 28/1/2015 13:00

looking good because there are so many (new) posters throwing 1 line wisdoms at each other imho

[che7win] 28/1/2015 12:58

Webby,
Just done a bed and ISA here, £50 quid MMs charged.

[uppompeii] 28/1/2015 12:50

It's also frightening how people invest actual money in something they have a huge understanding of and who can't be bothered to put stop losses in because they know so much.

That's probably why ROGER MELLY is so touchy.

[roger melly] 28/1/2015 12:45

phoenixs
politeness is ineffective towards someone who's sleepwalking.
It's frightening how people invest actual money in something they have a poor understanding of and who can't be bothered to research enough to even grasp the basics. It disgusts me!

You Sir, are a pillock and so is Fatty Fat controller for asking muppet-level questions.

[phoenixs] 28/1/2015 11:00

what a polite individual you are. Thank you for your infinite wisdom.

[phoenixs] 28/1/2015 10:54

RM, not as you say "bloody lazy" but confused as to what the total supply output may look like for this year given the moving goalposts in Chile.

[roger melly] 28/1/2015 10:44

It's all there on this thread and freely available on the web.

Some people are sooo bloody lazy!

DYOR ffs

[phoenixs] 28/1/2015 10:22

TFC, further to your post.

If there is a figure for total expected demand this year based on last years demand and also total estimated world supply for this year it would be really helpful.

[the fat controller] 28/1/2015 09:07

superg,
As always, I am in awe of the depth of your research. Well done sir!
However, the sheer weight of your research makes it hard to find certain info when looking back. Could you summarise previous production outputs of the major players, and the potential downside given their mine closures and political problems. I am sure that you've done this before, but I have looked, and keep finding snippets, some contradictory, so a clear summary would be greatly appreciated. By me, and I suspect, many others. Thanks,
TFC

[rogerbridge] 28/1/2015 08:39

Based on what has been uncovered about our competitors in Chilie and the dire financial situation of others, the price of iodine does look set to increase during this financial year.
It certainly looks positive for IOF, one of the negatives for some investors was the perseved oversupply. The market for iodine and the derivatives from our added value chemical division is growing.
As has been pointed out, growing market with tight supply equals higher iodine prices.
There has been a great deal of emphasis on water over the last few months and some bears are still not convinced that IOF will be successful here. We are becoming a very profitable iodine based company and water is the icing on the cake, a very thick piece of icing.
I am disappointed that no broker has picked up on the enormous opportunities open to IOF, but I suppose no one wants to stick their neck out, but I suppose the real answer is that none of them understand IOF and any that have a small grasp of the situation seem to be looking in the rear view mirror.

SG and others have got it in the neck from some here and on the other threads, but without a deep understanding of a company, an investment decision can not be made.
IOF have recovered from the decisions made by the numpties in the past. We are now on the cusp of a very strong 2015 and grossly undervalued and the situation in Chilie makes IOF look stronger by the day.

[superg1] 28/1/2015 08:10

Bog

I note your comments about iodine prices when disaster struck.

If you read the finances header it details what the SQM situation was, and their inventories then v now, plus info on others.

2009 saw a drop in demand post market crash, but it was a false drop as the buyers got active in 2010 then further in 2011 as the problems hit.

SQM had a 5000 mt inventory and added higher cost mines production.

Currently they are running on normal operational inventory and have closed mines.

So unless someone has a secret iodine mountain somewhere any glitch now could see it as worse than 2011, and it doesn't have to be on the same scale.

[superg1] 28/1/2015 07:35

Odvod

Juts clicked. You speak Spanish I suspect due to your interpretation of the recent court doc.

Now I see you use ichimoku.

There was only one poster I knew with that combination. I won't say who, but feel free to expand a bit more on the Spanish links as Google translate isn't always the best.

Did I get the ACF situation more or less right?

There is a court document listed the Cosayach bosses and the charges. I'll list it if you want to view it and tell us what it is all about.

[superg1] 28/1/2015 07:26

Bog

Can you engage the wombat on his own thread.