Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 27/1/2015 17:40

superg, the polar vortex has been on my mind and the extreme cold pushing down from the arctic deep into latitudes in which Iofina operate used to concern me, especially as the areas effected could change quite quickly (weather is dynamic after all), but im willing to believe that Iofina have been learning lessons these past few years and putting effective measures in place, eg trace heating along pipes etc, so i will only be concerned if we hear from the company that they are effected, as they have been in the past, until then i assume business as normal.

[kaos3] 27/1/2015 15:14

21 shares traded for a rise. Something is wrong with the advfn iof feed


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[superg1] 27/1/2015 14:55

The Doomsters disappoint me.

With all the US Blizzard warnings I thought someone would start.

Perhaps they realised it's a sun block needed 75 degrees in Alva OK today. Weird weather though which is not the norm.


The Cosayach group bills grow.

State street bank $120 mill

German bank $70 mill

Gov tax fraud $82 mill plus fines of 4 times that if it's proven.

New arrival $15 mill for labour breaches re shipping in of Paraguay workers. Errazuriz in court this month over the case and some extra on top re compensation to workers to come.

Running total excluding fine potential $287 mill owed.

Other court cases pending.

[superg1] 27/1/2015 14:12

MM games

A post by an ex MM of 10 years experience.

I entirely agree with the spread game, squeeze it tight then widen it to stop the buying.

Next comes the walk it down to get the sellers. See, they know PIs sell on a drop.

[che7win] 27/1/2015 13:33

Webby,
that is correct, the stock has to be 'physically' sold outside the ISA then bought within the ISA wrapper.

But any stock broker worth his salt talks to a friendly MM and they usually agree to do it for £70 or so - it's really a gift for the MM (no risk).

Must do that myself :-)

[superg1] 27/1/2015 12:51

Che

'The core stocks I would like to own on my watch list aren't good value, I don't want to pay fair prices, I want great companies at a bargain price!'

Snap

Most of mine aren't and I'm waiting for one I can't value to keep drifting to new lows. A potential sleeper hidden in the market.

So many funds were flying into IOF which helped the price chaos, they didn't understand it then, but a few old and some new are starting to take a look.

There is no iodine market in the financial system for the UK, thus they don't know where to start. Even some big SQM investors had no idea SQM did iodine.

[che7win] 27/1/2015 12:22

Webby,
a wicked spread you paid to do that - you shouldn't have paid more than £70 tops for that - your broker should be able to do that via an MM.

[webby] 27/1/2015 11:54

Holding 150000 for the long term all in ISA's by end of week. Banking small losses for future gains in trading account hoping for big tax free gains in ISA

[pleco] 27/1/2015 11:51

15000 is me topping up! I think your trades made the price drop. Thanks.

[webby] 27/1/2015 11:48

20000 trades are me selling and buying back into ISA. Can't do BED & ISA for some reason.

[che7win] 27/1/2015 11:41

I think IOF is misunderstood superg, the upside is incredible and has been suppressed by raw iodine prices.

I am of the view that below 50p is great value.

I see very few other shares with upside in these markets, so just dipping in and out of opportunities.

The core stocks I would like to own on my watchlist aren't good value, I don't want to pay fair prices, I want great companies at a bargain price!

[superg1] 27/1/2015 11:29

I should add that we don't know how other market sectors will react.

Often MMs will move the price to where they think there may be action. So if they fancy offering some up I'm sure there will be takers.

[superg1] 27/1/2015 11:24

I'd be surprised if many can be bought below the current price.

The initial surge on new of volumes followed by the settling down now. I think traders are out and no sign of a drip seller.

I suspect a few are thinking about their purchase point and they will look for indicators to do that.

800k short and some drip closing over the last month or two. So if a Chile mine goes offline, iodine price move, and various other factors could see them wanting out and buyers wanting in.

Any factor like that I would expect 40 to go in quick order.

Plus I'm one of a few that know what 'others' think about it and what their desired entry point is. I don't think they will get it, and certainly won't imo in volumes they have in mind.

I know their view, and I know they don't understand this market, but they are getting there.

[jbe81] 27/1/2015 10:49

superg at what price are you hoping to pick up more Iof?

[superg1] 27/1/2015 10:06

Weil/Linde Helium deal announced.

Weil are the company exploiting the Helium in Montana

[superg1] 27/1/2015 08:42

A line found in SQM reports

Our total current production capacity at our iodine production plants is approximately 12,500 metric tons per year.

In 2012 and 2013 they did 10.9k and 10.8k, pampa stopped 3 years earlier which did about 1.2k at it's peak. PV has risen about 500mt which then hits the 12,500 figure.

Late 2013 The Iris plant/mine was closed as was El Toco/Maria Elena, both had been closed previously and were opened when there was a demand surge in 2010 followed by the 2011 crisis.

Gross margins pre those mines back open were shown as 58% on a $34 price.

2013 56% on a $50 price.

Maria Elena did 1,700mt in 2012 and 1,500 in 2013. It was closed in November 2013 which explains the variation.

At it's peak pampa (closed 2010) hit 1300 mt in 2006, but 1000 or 1100 in other years.

2010 to 2013 at Neuve Victoria. Production jumped from 4.8k to 6.1k. Much of that jump was down to the Iris plant/mine at the location coming back.
The only record of production for Iris was 1200 mt in 2006 it shut down then re-opened when the iodine crisis hit, so it tends to cover that jump in production at NV.

2013 production rate 10,800 mt. 1500 of that was from the now closed Maria Elena mine.

Iris plant shut with the only record showing as 1200mt produced at that site in 2006 pre closure.

Production jumps by that amount when it was back in play.

In 2011 NV production was 5,200 up from 4,800. I suspect Iris came back on post crisis in 2011. maybe H2 as in 2012 the production jumps 800mt.

NV jumps 100mt in 2013 with Iris closed late in 2013, so clearly NV production had gone up too. So I estimate the contribution from Iris was about 800mt.

Overall meaning that SQM production should drop in 2014 by around 2,500mt.

It's hard to call what the NV capacity is but if they had expansion options there in 2011 then there was no need to open the higher cost mines.

In the peak demand Pedro Valdivia went from 2,600mt in 2009 to , 3k, 3.1k, 3.2k and 3.2k, so that seems to have peaked too.

H1 this year they sold at a rate of 8,960 mt, but seem to be producing around the 8,500 mark. They had 1,500mt surplus in 2013.

All in all SQM should produce a lot less this year and it's down to the higher cost mines being suspended. That puts them back to 2007/2008 production levels.

[stevo2011] 27/1/2015 08:19

Off topic AFR butchered this morning

[odvod] 27/1/2015 07:02

close


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[superg1] 26/1/2015 23:24

Some bits in the finances thread header now. I haven't checked for typos and haven't finished yet. I want to check some more recent data and comments to finish it off.

Overall it uncovers the inventory picture and why mines were opened then closed etc.

[superg1] 26/1/2015 20:10

Not really, because my head is spinning, and I have a load of scribbled notes to translate, then post.

But imo excellent news re the inventory situation for SQM. I suspected it was low in their terms, but there were a few things to check. On that front I didn't realise how easy they would make it re the various comments.

Some scissors and copydex, and the puzzle comes together.

[rogerbridge] 26/1/2015 19:49

Excellent news SG

[superg1] 26/1/2015 19:48

It wasn't complete. I decided to cross check it all with annual results to see if comments match the apparent changes.

Glad I did as it confirmed my thoughts. I'm confident SQM are running at 'normal operational inventory levels'

The figures suggested that, but couldn't be considered to be certain due to prior years production.

2010 to 2012 sales figures v production made me thing they have no extra iodine to supply if anything happens.

A 2008 comment, followed by comments in subsequent years supports it all and now helps me understand what seemed like daft logic in conference calls. It paints a very different picture. This price war is a last ditch effort by SQM to kill off some competitors.

I imagine if asked they would probably talk of a bulging inventory to cause fear in others, more likely to avoid a lie they will waffle on about 'for competitive reasons we can't comment etc etc.

However they have commented in different documents in different years which completes the jigsaw.

The final comment that caused me to double check everything was in the last conference call.

I wanted to know that if a mine closes (RB, Algorta or Cosayach) can anyone fill the gap. The answer is no, the market would see supply chaos.

More than ever, If I was an end user reading the info I'd be stocking up on iodine as fast as I could. They do the opposite in such difficult market times dropping inventories (all businesses not just iodine) and preserve cash.