International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[silkstag] 14/4/2020 10:09

m1k3y1, I wont hold a busted share at 250p when it is worth about 10p on restructuring in 15 months.

Iberia's Madrid routes to Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich will be dead for a year. Cant see much love on their routes to 8 US cities.

Q) If breakeven is a plane say 80% full, what do you do with 20% full?
A) Cut 75% of flights and fly 1 plane 80% full. Axe 75% of planes and 65% of all staff. Grim road ahead.
Sorry, it is as simple as that.
MANDATORY SELL Target refinancing price 10p in 15 months. All imho. Dyor.

[smithys2019] 14/4/2020 10:08

Price up today, probably off the back of rumours Norwegian will shortly go to Zero.

[m1k3y1] 14/4/2020 09:34

Silk....do you own any IAG shares ?

[silkstag] 14/4/2020 09:23

International business travel will never return to previous level, behaviour and culture shift toward video calls. Greta T also wants this. BA profit will never return to previous level.
Germany will self isolate with closed borders so Germans will not fly to Spain this sumnmer. Brits will also slash trips to Spain, as,will others.
Iberia international and internal flight traffic will be decimated for years. Iberia profitability will never return to previous levels.

Wild trading losses in 2020.
Wild restructuring costs when axe say 50% of employees and fleet capacity.
Wild asset losses as second hand planes in declining air travel market will fetch 30-50p in £. Still owe creditors 100p in £ on those planes + intetest.

Balance sheets are already 'dead', the only question is when each IAG airline admits it. Q1 results 7 May? Q2 results in August when noone flies in the summer? Will they start permanently reducing timetable by 50%, then to 75% six months later when wild ongoing losses?

When asset utilisation in the medium term collapses 30-50% the valuation does not go down 30-50%, it goes down 98%. The creditors own what is left. They do a refinancing deal at 2% of peak valuation. So IAG is heading for 10p.

Suicidal and bonkers to keep holding IAG. Losing 98% in one share is a portfolio wrecker. All imho. Dyor.

[hamhamham1] 14/4/2020 09:07

NY Boy, it would be nice if you tell us about your bad investments as well as your good ones (with buy your buy prices and sell or if you still holding), else it's not really telling the whole story.
I used to know someone who played the fruit machine in the pub would always tell you about the 20 quid jackpot he had out of it the other day, but never a word about the 30 quid he put in it every day.

[tfergi] 14/4/2020 08:55

That's just it, investors do not seem to be that fearful in spite of everything. I don't think that in 6 months all the effects of this will be over...

[ny boy] 14/4/2020 08:52

tfergi, markets are projecting 6 months+ ahead but dyor as a usual

Doubled my (SAGA) holding @ 17p for medium/long term recovery last sold by luck really 53p be greedy, when others are fearful imo

[tfergi] 14/4/2020 08:07

Can anyone tell me how this keeps rising when the outlook for international air travel over the next 3 months is disastrous at best?

[ny boy] 14/4/2020 07:49

millie, I prefer Waitrose, less people in our local branch lol

Onwards & upwards, is big dips imo see you above 300p soon

[knowing] 14/4/2020 00:36

Well lucky there's no friggin traffic then !! Idiot

[milliecusto] 13/4/2020 22:37

Watch out for the volcanic movements in Iceland, could be a bad outcome

[arai] 13/4/2020 22:17

Just to add a little from my perspective that it does look like a while before any international flights get going but I can see US internal flights starting again more quickly as a mix of politics and necessity take hold. I do not ramp or push a share but I have had a look at the EFT US Global Jets (JETS) and have taken a position as well as one here. ham, as like you I have gone for a mix or recovery / necessity stocks, positioned my chips and ready to have a look in a few months.

So for me a mix of banks, credit, travel and retail are poised and ready.

Good luck to all.

A.

[m1k3y1] 13/4/2020 17:04

sounds like a sensible approach to me Ham.

[hamhamham1] 13/4/2020 11:57

If the share price was 250p and increased by 20% ON AVERAGE per year for next 5 years, that's 622p in 5 years. Very doable. Similar with hopefully rest of my portfolio, then sell all in 5-7 years time, no sweat.
That 622p price is where it was only 6 weeks ago on 21st Feb 2020.
But am here for the duration with a broad portfolio, so short term is for traders, I like my sleep too much to trade, and I don't have the smarts :)

But spreading across many different companies, for me, makes it more comfortable as any one (or two) companies can develop issues, so why concentrate on one company even if you think it's the bet for you.
And yes, the value of my portfolio could go down over next few months, but I have money to invest if opportunities present themselves, and if they don't, I'll keep it in the bank.

[hamhamham1] 13/4/2020 11:49

Yup. And share prices tend to be ahead of hard data. Both downwards and upwards.

[smithys2019] 13/4/2020 11:47

Ham ham, so You are predicting 20% annualised return from here on in? I will take those odds!

[hamhamham1] 13/4/2020 09:47

Sr2. No one knows the future share price at certain points. That's your guess. I am not ramping here, and I only put a wee punt here, so it's not a problem.
Last time IAG was around 150p (in 2012), it hit 600p within 3 years.
Events will drive the price here, and no-one knows the future events.

[sr2day] 13/4/2020 09:40

make no mistake it will take IAG at least five years to get to 500p if ever but first we will visit 150p or lower.

[m1k3y1] 13/4/2020 09:27

Motley Fool.......it's all in the name.

[qantas] 13/4/2020 09:05

Please do your own research as always.

[hamhamham1] 13/4/2020 09:03

Whilst the oil deal isn't necessarily the solution to the price drop, I think it will at least put a more stable floor beneath the pricing.

[loganair] 12/4/2020 21:14

It looks like BA have retired all their A380s permanetly and for good as they have flown them all down to Chateauroux in France for what BA call long term storage.

[ny boy] 12/4/2020 20:07

Boris is back, nurses should be in for a pay rise, more money not clapping

Onwards & upwards here, ignore the noise, unlock by mid June imo