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[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/4/2020 12:03

#m1k3y1..

Petrol at say 100p/litre is 57.95p fuel duty, 20p VAT, and 22.05p for the Oil refiner/distributor, so the result is for example a drop from 122p to 100p in price which does reflect a 50% drop in the oil price element of the cost..

[edit], the duty level is fixed, only the VAT at 20% floats with the sale prices, so roughly 80% of the fuel price is tax..

IAG at 200p is a calculated bet that only the strongest capital position airlines will survive, and the flag carrier being my choice, the rest will all need bailout loans, or even worse equity dilution from Gov intervention which is the last resort the BOD and everyone wants to see, EZJ and Virgin/Delta are in a much weaker position...

[jailbird] 11/4/2020 11:59

Not sure oil will jump .OPEC+ cuts are not deep enough . Need $30+ bopd cut to debt supply Oil prices both fell after news on Thursday

[m1k3y1] 11/4/2020 11:48

You will notice though, that petrol at the pumps is still above 100p.
Does not in any way reflect the drop in the oil price.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/4/2020 10:34

Oil production is driven by demand, however if demand drops off suddenly production is then driven by storage capacity.., IMO producers will have the decision to make cuts made for them very soon, once all the refinery storage is full, all the tankers afloat are full, strategic reserves are full, the only place left to keep such massive volumes of a liquid is in the ground where it is..

Oil production versus refined products sales will find its own balance whether producers like it or not.., and there will be a broader cartel of OPEC++, market rigging, collusion and price fixing will prevail (sooner or later)..

Squabbling for market share and winning by discounting might continue for a little while but no one can afford to do that for very long, many oil producers are state owned, Aramco are totally reliant on Oil revenue to run the country, Russia/Rosneft are next and they both have the most to lose, IMO there will be a deal agreed amongst all producers to fix the price in dollars not far off whereby they all gain from it, the alternative is bankrupting each others governments and economies destroying the markets they trade with which hurts everyone even more..

Interesting times, and out of our control, but we can position for it.. :o)

[hamhamham1] 11/4/2020 09:22

I reckon by Tuesday markets opening, crude will jump, Mexico was the last hurdle to a 10% global production cut. Now they look on board, Oil companies might jump on that news...


Although you'll get an indication early Monday morning with the Asian markets and crude prices out there, as no bank holiday for them.

An indicator might be...



Or

[watfordhornet] 10/4/2020 23:10

And what do you mean "MANDATORY"? Do you know what that means? I doubt whether you or anyone else can force me to sell

[watfordhornet] 10/4/2020 23:09

The share price is 246p. What are you talking about 10p for? Try coming back in when sober

[m1k3y1] 10/4/2020 22:22

Slik
........what an absolute load of rubbish.
Quite bizarre that you are posting here when all of your posts appear to be about Earthport .
Do you actually own any IAG shares ?

[hamhamham1] 10/4/2020 19:17

If you are invested at this stage, as long as you have a balanced portfolio of shares which are still making a decent level of sales overall, then you should prosper on average and can take any bad with the good.
Being balanced is easily thought and said but not always practiced in the heat of the moment.

[m1k3y1] 10/4/2020 14:21

waikenchan.....Trump and Walsh are a million miles apart.

[woff woff] 10/4/2020 14:03

I hear china is selling lung ,s and hart s and livers to order of the five million people it,s got in its prisons and killing and murdering the prisoners if a paying Don,a needing a transplant can get a tissue match with a prisoners ,, all so the prisoners kid,,S keep on going missing shy tv did a look in to it it ended like the Truman show and we trade with the murdering china and your PM s is all way s kissing up too them close Heathrow airport down stop the noise and Heathrow airport killing UK people with they co2 no2 poison

[hamhamham1] 10/4/2020 13:39

I don't trust China's stats, would double, triple or ten fold the real numbers there.
They are obsessed with face saving there, which may prove a long term downfall trait.

[woff woff] 10/4/2020 13:29

I think this co19 could have come from a supper hub airport like Heathrow or Gatwick as I believe they did not do temp of pax s like they do in china or ask if you came from china and a immigration officer and
his daughter are dead from co19 so looks like Heathrow airport is a supper co19 super spreader and could have caused the death of seven thousand people in UK England LIKE YESING PIG PIG PING HAS DONE in china its funny how people are burning 5g mast's they 100% did not cause co19 but Heathrow airport did bring it to the UK I think and believe this is proved in the immigration offenses death and that of his daughter as I believe they did not go to china so must have got it in UK may be at his job at Heathrow airport

[waikenchan] 10/4/2020 13:12

I'm not talking about iag's pension. I'm talking about pension funds who hold IAG commercial paper who need sell it now as it is classed as junk bond status as they have strict criteria on the type of collateral they can hold on their balance sheet. This will affect thir ability to raised funds from debt if required.

That's reassuring that mr Walsh won't need to raise fund. The fed president said repo markets would be temporary - now we are QE infinity. Sam Woods (BOE governor) said we would not need to monitise govt debt - look what happened there. Trump said the US economy would open by Easter. I'm pretty crusie companies said they were strong capital position, until they were not.

In the words game of thrones - "words are wind"

[m1k3y1] 10/4/2020 13:00

Waikenchan.....IAG no longer run the pension fund , Aviva do.
Walsh has said they will not need to raise funds.

You appear to know more than he does but I choose to believe in what Walsh says.

[qantas] 10/4/2020 12:48

Ham

You are correct.

Is the letter a considered a word?

' A' is both a letter and a word . It is an indefinite article which makes a temporary relation with its following noun in the sentence. ... This revelation is known as letter that is less important than sound. Whether they are letters , words , sentences or language all are representation of sounds.

[waikenchan] 10/4/2020 12:44

No I don't admittly.

What I do know is that IAG spent 20% of their operating income on debt interest. Which that percentage is obviously going to get worse.

So what do we have - a company with no revenue (or very little) and there is no visibility on when planes will start flying again, who is burning cash at an unknown rate (American airlines are using 50 million /day), interest will still need to paid on debt, iag has needed to extend their over draft.

Sooner or later they will need to raise cash - either additional debt (at high interest rates as now they are junk bond status +plus pension fund will need to sell as their debt is no longer investment grate. ) or raise capital through a share placing (resulting in share holder dilution).

[hamhamham1] 10/4/2020 12:43

I thought it's the largest word? :)
I know a smaller one, a!

[qantas] 10/4/2020 12:37

Smith IF smallest word in the dictionary.

Do they have any passengers?

Please do your own research as always.

[smithys2019] 10/4/2020 12:34

Looks as though Norwegian are deeply in the Sh@t. Massive share dilution and restructuring inbound, or they will go under. Good news for liquid airlines looking to get airplanes, slots and routes cheaply.

[qantas] 10/4/2020 12:29

Mr Truth You are not very clever are you? and need to do more research.

A I am not from Devon (FACT)

B Have never posted on LSE (FACT)

C Sometimes people copy your name it is a free country

From your profile one and only post you have made makes you a total fake (FACT)

Please do more research..