International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[dround87] 08/4/2020 22:14

Watford I think due to a number of recent news items it's just one of those brief periods during a crash where the market is looking through the crisis at an early juncture. That said I think it's clear, especially given this weeks COVID reports that we're not out of the woods and there's a lot of pain to come. My feeling is we'll get a rally up until a certain point, probably in the very near future driven mostly by FOMO but then we're in for a turbulent decline over a number of months before the true light appears at the end of the tunnel in the form of a vaccine. Above a certain level I just don't see enough buyers to stop it given the situation. Even very gullible ones! I do think Monty will get his 155.

[dround87] 08/4/2020 22:04

I think June-July is a very optimistic scenario to be honest. The recent rise is a fools rally IMHO. Almost certain we'll be testing lows before the summer and probably have further to fall. Going to try and short the FTSE100 at 5850ish down to 4500ish without any leverage using XUKS ETF then I'll let it settle before I buy and hold.

[smithys2019] 08/4/2020 18:04

Oversold. Plus pretty much every other major has doffed cap asking for financial support. Just shows how financially robust IAG are I suppose

[watfordhornet] 08/4/2020 14:35

Any reason for the rise today when market is down and not a whole load of good news flying around.Reduced competition?

[loganair] 08/4/2020 14:04

Boeing's goal to return its troubled 737 MAX to service by mid-year could be in jeopardy after the company has reportedly pushed back its planned test flight for regulators until May at the earliest.

[loganair] 08/4/2020 14:00

Boeing discovers two new flaws in the flight control software of 737 MAX.

One of the software issues involves hypothetical faults in the microprocessor of the flight control computer and could potentially result in the pilot losing control during flight. Because of this issue, the plane could potentially climb or dive on its own, according to Boeing.

The second issue in the flight control computer could potentially lead to disengagement of the autopilot system as the plane prepares to make a landing.

[loganair] 08/4/2020 13:42

Wat - "years until the worldwide demand for air travel returns to pre-crisis levels."

[hamhamham1] 08/4/2020 13:17

Whether there is some kind of pet passport needed to show you have had it or don't have it, maybe that's how we ease back in June or July?

[hamhamham1] 08/4/2020 13:15

You need planes running before cruises can function, ie passengers usually fly to start cruise. So flights will fill up before cruises fill up, plus with a flight you are off the plane in a few hours, whereas on a cruise you are captive for the duration.

[watfordhornet] 08/4/2020 12:45

"Several months" - that would be excellent but cannot see it to be honest.

[loganair] 08/4/2020 12:28

Lufthansa - six Airbus A380s and seven A340-600s, as well as five Boeing 747-400s, will be permanently decommissioned. In addition, eleven Airbus A320s will be withdrawn.

Furthermore, Lufthansa Cityline will also withdraw three Airbus A340-300 aircraft from service.

Eurowings will also be reducing the number of its aircraft in the short-haul segment, with an additional ten Airbus A320s to be phased out. Eurowings long-haul business, which is run under the commercial responsibility of Lufthansa, will also be reduced.

Germanwings flight operations will be discontinued.

Swiss International Air Lines will also adjust its fleet size by delaying deliveries of new short haul aircraft and consider early phase-outs of older aircraft.

Lufthansa Group airlines have already terminated almost all wet lease agreements with other airlines.

[loganair] 08/4/2020 12:23

According to an assessment from the German flag-carrier Lufthansa, it will take several months until the global travel restrictions are completely lifted and years until the worldwide demand for air travel returns to pre-crisis levels.

[hamhamham1] 08/4/2020 11:50

Fyi, I did swap the carnival for another share today, wasn't overly comfortable about that holding. Again it was only a small punt.

[dround87] 08/4/2020 09:04

It's your time to shine buywell you diva!

[buywell3] 08/4/2020 08:43

This is another one that might get nationalized in buywells'view

The Government will IMO have to pump cash into many indebted FTSE 100 stocks

Taking a stake in so doing

If the COE times it right he should be able to get some good deals for the taxpayer

I hope he understands DOW Theory

dyor

[loganair] 07/4/2020 17:33

Air France-KLM Seeks $6.5 Billion Lifeline From Government.

[loganair] 07/4/2020 17:31

Lufthansa plans to take 18 wide-body jets out of service, including six Airbus SE A380 double-deckers that were scheduled for sale. Flights for low-cost carrier Germanwings, a local version of the Eurowings unit, will be discontinued, it said Tuesday.

Fleet cutbacks are also coming at the German carrier’s Austrian Airlines and Brussels Airlines subsidiaries.

In addition to liabilities for refunds, Lufthansa also has expenditures of around 1 billion euros per month, meaning it will need a sizable injection to weather the storm, according to the Credit Suisse analysis.

[watfordhornet] 07/4/2020 14:34

Once Spain and U.K. get over worst of this there will be huge pressure to open up from Spanish Govnt. Their tourism industry is having a nightmare - can you imagine how those hotels will survive in south coast of Spain.Not ideal but I just think things will happen a bit quicker than it may look. They will open routes up over time once countries go through their peaks

[hamhamham1] 07/4/2020 14:19

I'm holding for 5-7 years, reinvest any divis, then sell all, hoping to sell for 2 or 3 times my cost.
If we do have any down turns over next 12 months, I will more buy at lower levels. I am happier to invest as a lot of shares have risen by over 20% from their lows. But hey???
Time will tell the true returns.

[smithys2019] 07/4/2020 14:09

Easy secure 600 million government loan. No asset handover, no dilution, share price up 16% on the day.

[dround87] 07/4/2020 14:05

Hmm. Not too sure about that! Air travel will be bringing up the rear. SR is right. The 12 month outlook is bleak and it's a pretty big gamble at this point whether or not even IAG will need a bailout. Let's hope the government can help in other ways to reduce costs for airlines and they can hibernate through it. The government don't want bailouts any more than shareholders or taxpayers do. No one wants bailouts except perhaps the shorters on this thread.

[watfordhornet] 07/4/2020 13:40

I think we will have a mix of COVID passports(those who have had or have immunity) plus greater screening at check ins. Airline industry too important for global economy to be off line for too long and they will bring in measures to mitigate risk as soon as they canHere's hoping anyway - still hoping to go to Spain in August on EasyJet!

[sr2day] 07/4/2020 13:31

all depends on a vaccine being found.the sooner the better otherwise we shall all be moving about in protective gear because this virus will not go away.