International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[gaffer73] 21/3/2020 22:52

The Virus - a flu like virus which caused worldwide panic and a 30% fall in financial markets until it quickly disappeared after 6 months.

[paa65] 21/3/2020 22:26

Dictionary definitions, year 2045School - buildings where children used to be gathered together for education up to 2020.Kissing - show of affection between two people using lips and mouths. Made illegal in 2021 to manage transmission of The Virus.Private Industry - an historical part of the economy, not government owned, once popular in many nations of the world, prior to The Virus.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 20:08

I suspect that Walsh will see an opportunity to offer redundancies or new MF contracts to various crew groups.

They have been wanting to do this for some years and this presents them with the perfect situation in which to do it.
If UK GOV doesn't want to offer sensible financial support, why would Walsh agree to implement the GOV's 2500pm employee subsidy. and not make employees redundant .

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 19:56

ham...lots of airlines are operating ferry flights on behalf of various governments, to repatriate people at the moment.

Do not forget that IAG has a substantial and profitable Cargo business that will still be operating.

[hamhamham1] 21/3/2020 19:55

Counting seats on AIG flights back to UK is not the point. Everyone is trying to use their carrier flag airlines to get home before shutdown. What are the flight volumes like on outbound from UK?

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 19:53

I find it laughable that Branson declined to proceed with his sale of 31% of VS to Air France-KLM (who are themselves in trouble) for 220m but is now requesting financial support from UK GOV.

He could well end up with GOV owning a percentage of Virgin , for much less than the share value he had agreed with Air France-KLM .

I am not sure that Delta will be happy with that scenario though.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 19:48

If Walsh says IAG doesn't need financial support from UK GOV.......I am inclined to believe him.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 19:47

Smithy..Qatar already have 25.1% .

Logan......technically UK are no longer in the EU. However they have to adhere to EU rules during the transition period.

Quote "In reality, any government can do what ever it likes whether the EU likes it or not."
Of course they can but there are always consequences and if you want to benefit from buying into a successful airline with potential profit earning capability, not complying with EU ownership rules would not be a good idea.

I also suspect that the US GOV would not be impressed if UK GOV stuck two fingers up to airline cross border agreements.

[smithys2019] 21/3/2020 18:16

Logan, IAG burn rate estimated was 1.15 bn a month for a complete shutdown. From FR24, BA are nowhere near a complete shutdown yet. Still operating40% of their routes. Will be very interested to see the actual figures. I’m making a bet that Q1 figures will be bad but beat market sentiment.

Mate flew back from the Far East in club the other day and the aircraft was full. Not a single seat spare. So I think the company have probably done a good job of cancellations and rebooking.

Either way, I’m expecting a release from IAG first thing Monday morning Pre market open. If not tomorrow.

I would expect first step if needed will be a government bond held against landing slots as collateral together with Qr increasing their holdings of IAG shares to max permitted (25%). I would further expect a market rights issue well before the government get involved.

[loganair] 21/3/2020 18:13

Landing slots at airports can not be sold to governments, only to other airlines.

[albert3591] 21/3/2020 18:09

How about £1.50 opening share price take it or leave it,leave it and you will go bust

[snoopy12] 21/3/2020 17:38

In my view sell the landing rights to the government around the world, since they are not being utilised with an option to buy back otherwise the government has the right to auction to the highest bidder from anywhere in the world.

[loganair] 21/3/2020 17:31

While still in the transition period the UK is still considered to be in the EU so can take as bigger stake as it likes in IAG.

In reality, any government can do what ever it likes whether the EU likes it or not.

In the United States they say the big 4 airlines are each burning through $50mln per day, that is $1.5bln per month for each airline.

By the time this is all over, by the end of this year IAG will have burnt through something like £5bln to £10bln.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 17:16

logan....I don't see how that can work.
As I said they would have to issue both EU and NON EU shares. In addition, you seem to be taking no account of the NON EU shares that are already in ownership and issue.

I don't see any attraction in it for WW and the BoD to be honest.

[loganair] 21/3/2020 17:12

This could work, IAG issue 40% new shares to the UK government which is under the 47.5%.

Under EU law governments are not allowed to give state aid to airlines and the French, Dutch and German governments are to their respective airlines.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 16:22

Smithy...that is an old article and refers to NON EU shareholding, which is restricted to 47.5% I believe

Quote "The IAG Board will continue to monitor the Relevant Non-EU Persons ownership level. Under Article 11 of IAG’s bylaws, the Board is authorised to re-impose the Permitted Maximum at any time if necessary."

Logan.....this wouldn't work as IAG would be required to issue both EU and NON EU shares .UK GOV could only purchase NON EU shares , which restricts the amount they can have . In addition, any dilution of NON EU Shares would have an associated impact on the EU Shares ...surely.

I don't see any reason why IAG could not take a loan from Qatar,or anyone else, if offered and needed , on commercial terms.

[hamhamham1] 21/3/2020 16:13

This'll make you laugh, funny guy, but unusual as a right wing comedian :)

[loganair] 21/3/2020 15:48

At the moment EU countries seems to be ignoring EU rules and instead are doing what is best for their own country.

If the government does take a stake in any airline I think they'll do the same as they did with RBS and Lloyds.

For example IAG or Virgin will issue 40% more shares and every one else's stake will go down by 40%.

Then at some point in the future the government will sell their stake, maybe in one go or two or three tranches as a 'Public offering.'

I do not believe Qatar will make a full bid for IAG as usually the Qataris tend to take around a 25% stake in companies and that's it.

[hamhamham1] 21/3/2020 15:48

And toon, the reason why HSBC didn't need to take money from the gov was because of their past banking prudence:
"Michael Geoghegan said the conservative policies followed by his bank in recent years, which were criticised by some shareholders, had provided a solid base to weather the financial storm."

[smithys2019] 21/3/2020 15:40

Don’t think 50% is any longer an issue.

hxxps://www.iairgroup.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/newsroom-listing/2019/limit-on-non-eu-shareholding

Certainly with the current rules. IAG could well decide though they don’t want over 50% uk control. Not sure the Spanish will like that.

Could end with BA splitting out from IAG?

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 14:24

But manageable ....

[hamhamham1] 21/3/2020 14:22

It certainly is a headache.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 14:21

I think so.
Which half is being diluted the EU or Non EU shares ?
If they are going to lend the money, they should just do it.
Otherwise, stay out.