Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[rambutan2] 04/4/2006 14:00

quite right sheik,

my appologies everyone and post 883 corrected.

[sheik yerbouti] 04/4/2006 13:54

The sell was only 11k, not 114k, at a rip off price. All very predictable, hammered on next to no volume, long term prospects unchanged.

[rambutan2] 04/4/2006 11:36

for the record. looking at yesterday's trades, the only definite sell was 11k at 22.5p. looks like members of this board then bought a sprinkling of 5ks at between 25-26p which the mms allowed until close. then, on no trades so far today, they humped the offer up a couple of pence to 28p but left the bid at 25p.

[smartmoney100] 03/4/2006 11:17

Trades never seem to show up for 2 hours with IGP. I've no idea why, maybe a particular mm. Irritating to say the least. Mine was 5000 at 26p.

[mr tilt] 03/4/2006 11:14

got some too today however my trade isn't showing up, 7000 @ 25.63 Strange!

[yump] 03/4/2006 11:13

>ttb
Exactly. Looks like they've just taken it down to the last support level out of habit really.

Anyway, that revenue will just add to the 'surprise' later I guess.

[smartmoney100] 03/4/2006 11:12

Couldn't resist just a few more :-) A very inefficient market in my view.

[taurusthebear] 03/4/2006 08:13

Over-reaction on Friday. What if management had added the license fees to last year's revenue and said "revenues were a bit ahead of forecasts, as is the cash position". Would the shares now be closer to 40p? Pathetic "market" response! :0)

[igoe104] 03/4/2006 07:49

the more i look at that trading statement, the more i like this company, problem is i,ve got alot of outgoings, at the moment so i can,t add too my 140,000 odd shares in this company, at the moment.
i,ve also got a big holding in gfm, which im holding onto as well.

[taurusthebear] 31/3/2006 16:54

Agree Smart, I'm actually having trouble refraining from buying some more. But I don't like averaging down, although it's only psychological (actually, there is strategy there too, because it's a safeguard against a company going bust!), I prefer averaging up. So I guess my next buy will be at 37p - lol! I can't believe that people aren't noticing the near-term (1-2 year) potential here, but then again, who's complaining, it's just a matter of waiting for "the market" to wake up and smell the coffee (hopefully!)... ;0)

[smartmoney100] 31/3/2006 16:40

Taurus, like you said, the share price can move quickly on little volume. HeyHo such is life. I won't lose any sleep over it though, everything seems to be going to plan ok.

[wjccghcc] 31/3/2006 14:30

The convertibles are 982k due in Dec 06 and 450k due Mar 07. They have no other debt. Cash balances at the interims were 1,030k and that's likely to have increased with the $500k payment from RSA (they say cash balances ahead of target) in January so they can probably repay them if they need to.

Having said that, I think the convertibles are held by the VC backers who supported them in the 2004 placing and I can't see them pulling out just when things are beginning to get interesting.

Personally I still think there's a good chance the share price will be above 60p by Christmas since the interims will include the deferred RSA revenue, the John Lewis implementation and the Thales Cairo Stock Exchange revenues. It's clear that their revenues reflect contracts won 6-12 months previously so the picture will be clearer when we get the full year results statement as to what contracts they've been awarded in the last six months. Plus there should be some news on the Federal rebadging contracts hopefully.

[integer] 31/3/2006 13:34

Regarding the £1m convertable debt due Dec 06, am slightly worried that this will need to be repaid as its unlikely it will be converted into equity at the current price. Anyone know who holds this stock and whether they are likely to call on the company to repay or extend?

[wjccghcc] 31/3/2006 10:35

One other thing I noticed yesterday. The Met Police are in charge of security for the london olympics and who do you think provides ID card management for the Met?

Like you Taurus, I'm very relaxed with my holding (although it helps to still show a good profit). For me, it was always the y/e Mar 07 figures which were going to show the full potential and I'm happy to get my taper relief.

At 16p they were priced as if the market thought they would need to raise more cash. Cash balances rose to 1mm+ at the interims and are now above target so that's no longer the case. The operational gearing story still stands. Assume they do 2.3mm revenues this year. That's still 30% up on last year. A 2mm increase in revenues over the next 2 years would give them EPS approaching 5p and a shareprice of 1 quid at a PE of 20. That's a 3 bagger in 12-18 months.

And that ignores any involvement in the UK ID card scheme.

[yump] 31/3/2006 10:27

>ttb
Actually nowadays I don't normally buy into companies until they are already posting profits, but with IGP the potential gearing of profits to increases in revenue made me invest a bit earlier than normal, purely because the share price could hike very rapidly as soon as profits flow.

[taurusthebear] 31/3/2006 09:42

Fair enough yump, but you could also argue that in some respects it does represent the market, in that few people have rushed in to pick up IGP shares at the cheaper price, so the price reflects the supply-demand ratio, at least for this morning! Put it this way - if the MMs had raised the price to 40-38p, I bet you'd have seen a few more sellers.

See what you mean, though. I've never felt more relaxed when sitting on a loss, hopefully not blindly so, but in the knowledge that things are going to plan. Smart cards are coming and IGP is in there with the biggest and best... :0)

[yump] 31/3/2006 09:03

Just a personal gripe here about use of the words 'the market'...

I think we ought to distinguish carefully between the market makers moving prices and 'the market' moving prices.

Quite often 'the market' is actually doing very little, while the mm's hike or drop a price. So 'the market' doesn't actually 'think' anything much at all, certainly not in bulk.

Bit different from widespread buying or selling, which you could take as being representative of 'the market'.

Just my little bee in the bonnet !

[wjccghcc] 31/3/2006 09:02

Sorry spooky, I think I used at least 5 different tenses in one sentence - either too much or too little coffee :-)

[yump] 31/3/2006 08:56

>jailbird
Woops that's a typo, but I've actually got 31mln from somewhere.
Will just edit the number for now.

Judging from the actual volume of sales, investors aren't actually bothered much and its the mm's who are moving the price.

Always nice to see a profit, but the key thing is that the company is actually in the same state whether that revenue was posted this year to give a profit or next year to give more next year. To most IGP investors I can't imagine that technicality matters much. Sentiment perhaps, but as far as I can see its not got a sentiment based investor base.

[taurusthebear] 31/3/2006 08:55

Sub-30p is there for you, WJCC. Your patience has been rewarded! Assuming that you can find someone to deal for you... ;0)

[spooky] 31/3/2006 08:55

WJCCGHCC - Could you edit the last paragraph of post 860 so that i can understand it :-o)

[rambutan2] 31/3/2006 08:42

i cant deal either. mms realised where sentiment is.

[jailbird] 31/3/2006 08:41

Yump,

there 34M is issue.

I am gonna hold on but refrain from adding just yet.
Disappointed with statement, expected a profit...maybe maeket did too.
There is always next year..:-)