Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[wjccghcc] 31/3/2006 08:39

Not sure what the MMs want. They chop the price 20% but won't even fill my order for 10k shares. Maybe they don't want to deal at all.

roma77, the orders for the US federal rebadging should start being placed by October which is the legal deadline (although I suppose that could be extended). Regarding using this software, I think it's pretty clear the industry thinks highly of it - they are the basis for the ID management software used by RSA, Verisign, Safenet, Thales, Athena, Gemplus and Oberthur (for UK ID card).

Buying IGP is taking a view on the end demand for smart/ID cards. I happen to believe over the next five years there will be a merging of biometric and digital identities. If I'm wrong, then they'll stay around the 9mm mkt cap they are now, although cash is making up an increasing proportion of that.

Also, remember it can take 12-18 months after contract award for them to receive the revenues given the need to run pilot projects etc..

I suspect if they'd known this would be the share price reaction when they would have been profitable ahead of expectations but for prudent accounting, they'd have given more contract info today rather than wait for the finals.

[hybrasil] 31/3/2006 08:38

I thought it was oversold and bought 10k.

[taurusthebear] 31/3/2006 08:37

I still think the UK National ID card scheme is a bit of a red herring, and not the reason I have bought here. It may or may not happen, and IGP may or may not get it, or some of it, but there are too many "maybes" in there for me, and it seems to be at least two years away, so with the dithery UK govt. being as it is, any decision could be some time away.

I prefer to think of the US badging and corporate follow-up. It says it all there in the statement - US and EEC are expected to be completely ID'd up within 3-5 years - that's got to be worth something to IGP! :0)

[njp] 31/3/2006 08:34

Severe over-reaction IMO. Buying opportunity, though.

[igoe104] 31/3/2006 08:33

your not aware of the meeting of igp ceo, demo,s and meetings with the government then.

[yump] 31/3/2006 08:31

Usual overdone markdown I think, given its just the result of revenue allocation. Bit crazy how the words profit and loss are treated even when they relate to a tiny amount - guess that's where the opportunities lie with companies that are moving over the loss to profit boundary.

What's interesting is the effect profits will have when there's only around 34?mln shares in issue.

[roma77] 31/3/2006 08:28

igoe104, What if they don't want to use this type of software for there cards?
Also could be over a year away before they place any orders.

[igoe104] 31/3/2006 08:27

i bet these will be back over 30p. by the end of the day.

[taurusthebear] 31/3/2006 08:25

20% down seems a little extreme. I'd certainly be tempted to start picking up a few more if it goes much lower... :0)

[igoe104] 31/3/2006 08:22

i think we are all thinking along these lines, taurus.
your sure to get one hell of a bounce, if there rns on id cards, and it says usa and other countries want to use, this type of software, for there cards. as whispers have it. mmmmmmmmmmmm

[taurusthebear] 31/3/2006 08:09

Actually, the silver lining to this small cloud could be the opportunity to pick up some more shares at a rather tasty price! We'll see... :0)

[yump] 31/3/2006 08:04

Yes, so looks like they would have been in profit if that $500k in January had been allocated this current year.

With the US gov. badges actually going to start to be issued in Oct. this year, wouldn't expect we will have long to wait to see how that is going as the contract announcements will be well ahead of that. IGP typically cautious in saying they can't predict when contracts will start to be announced !

[taurusthebear] 31/3/2006 07:59

Oh well, just have to think 12 months ahead on this one! The market always seems to concentrate on any perceived negatives. Good to see that cash is not a problem. These shares belong under the bed for now... :0)

[garth] 31/3/2006 07:47

Don't you just love AFX's one-liners...... Not.

Intercede sees current yr sales slightly lower than previously expected

LONDON (AFX) - Intercede Group PLC said revenues in the year to end March are likely to be slightly lower than previously expected and a small loss is anticipated. The year end cash balance will, however, close ahead of target, it said

[wjccghcc] 31/3/2006 07:45

Revenues slightly less than expected giving a small loss (as forecast by Peel Hunt) but net cash greater than expected. Looks like revenues would have been greater than expected and IGP profitable if they'd taken the second $500k payment from RSA as revenue when it was paid in January. Instead it will be taken as revenue for the year ahead. That's more prudent and will give a boost to 2007 figures which are when this will get really interesting.

[wjccghcc] 30/3/2006 18:46

Well it was the trading statement last year which triggered my interest. Been buying ever since - the markets inattention allowed me to build up a large stake in the 18-22p range through to september so I don't mind if it takes a bit longer for these to be noticed.

Peel Hunt pencilled in a small loss for the year just ending (20k) but like Taurus I'd hope to see them moving into profit. Of course, there is usually a 6-18 month period between winning a project and full deployment (particularly if there's a pilot involved) so we shouldn't be too impatient. IMHO, the 06/07 figures and contract wins are where things will get really interesting.

[taurusthebear] 30/3/2006 14:33

OK then, the figures. A trading statement at year-end is as much about guidance for the results as results are about guidance for the forseeable future. In that respect, I'm not sure what the market expects, but I'd be a bit disappointed if H2 wasn't (isn't) in profit! :0)

[garth] 30/3/2006 13:33

Taurus,

The outlook is bound to be good, IMO.

G.

[taurusthebear] 30/3/2006 12:58

Thing is, though, Smart, that it doesn't take much to move the price here. A few who read this board and buy on a good trading statement will probably move the price up (and vice versa). Last year I think there wasn't enough attention being paid to the statement as the price had been in a downtrend for a long time. The price here has tended to spike on news in the past few months, and I would expect that to continue, if the outlook is good. We'll see! :0)

[garth] 30/3/2006 12:06

O/T
WJ - another interesting read for you. VocalID for Smartcards.

Tell me when you get board.

Kind regards,

G.

[smartmoney100] 30/3/2006 08:34

Yes it will be interesting, and even more interesting to see if anyone notices! We could get a very upbeat outlook statement either now or with the final results (late May) and only a modest share price move. More opportunity perhaps until the penny drops.

Wishfully yours

Smart

[taurusthebear] 30/3/2006 08:21

Tomorrow is IGP's last day of the financial year, so it'll be interesting to see if they have anything to say, as they did last year! :0)

[igoe104] 30/3/2006 08:18

in you want to read the news,( lords deal to clear way to id cards ) its on the msn home page. ( in the news section.)