Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[taurusthebear] 08/2/2006 08:30

OK, thanks, should've checked, slack of me. Still seems cheap to me though if they can continue to grow sales at a similar rate to last year. Also, if they're covering operating expenses, their 1m cash should be relatively intact... :0)

[wjccghcc] 08/2/2006 08:18

34mm shares in issue TTB. Mkt cap 10.9mm at 32p. advfn figure is wrong (as usual). Completely agree on the operational gearing.

[taurusthebear] 08/2/2006 04:21

rambutan2 - maybe you've been in IGP too long to be objective!? ;-)

Seriously, it seems to me that with the increase in ID cards worldwide, coupled with the obvious quality of Intercede's product, things are starting to come together nicely. I notice the shares bottomed out last summer, which was also the time that CCTV shares (IND, MNW) started their impressive rallies. I guess we have the London bombers to 'thank' for that catalyst, c/w anecdotal evidence suggesting an acceleration in the demand for such security, but it seems that that's the way the whole World is going these days.

My only caveat is that there doesn't seem to be much visibility at the company level. However, looking at the global trend, and the way the company has been performing over the last year or so, that's a cross I can bear at this time.

A company valued at just over 5 million pounds that is moving into profit in a strongly growing market sector just has to be a buy, in my book. People are getting excited about IND now covering operating costs, and any subsequent increase in sales falling disproportionately to the bottom line. Well, if IND have got 57% margins, and IGP are operating closer to 90%, you can see what that means if they double sales in the next 12 months, as they have done in the last!!!

It seems the MMs currently have some spare stock on their hands, so I'm thinking this may come off a bit in the next few weeks, but that'll be a chance to top up, and longer term it looks like it could be a smart investment.... :0)

[rambutan2] 07/2/2006 22:52

re john lewis: a roll out to 63000 partners in 200 locations - should go down well with the chattering classes.

meanwhile, the met certainly need all the help they can get to become a bit more efficient!

i really struggle to make a bear case for igp at present time/valuation - anyone care to try?

the boss is speaking on both days...

[wjccghcc] 07/2/2006 17:35

Looks like John Lewis was the big UK retailer in the contract with Siemens for 200k licenses announced in the interims.

"The John Lewis Partnership Adopts Siemens Smart Card Solution
John Lewis Partnership has selected Siemens Communications as their partner in a programme to roll out smart cards to the whole of the partnership organisation."



This one refers to the Siemens/Intercede contracts with the Met Police also mentioned in the interims. Pretty impressive IMHO.

"Metropolitan Police
A Siemens' Identity Management solution helps the Metropolitan Police to introduce a single electronic identity to their 45,000 workforce."

[taurusthebear] 06/2/2006 15:23

Sorry, I wanted some more in case it decides to jump up again. I'll be more patient from here and wait for a bit more off next time. Still building my position! :0)

[wjccghcc] 06/2/2006 15:18

Spoilsport:-) If you let it drift, we could get 30p again.

[taurusthebear] 06/2/2006 15:11

Yo! Managed to get some more at 32p. :0)

[wjccghcc] 05/2/2006 11:47

Problem is I think we're all waiting for someone to sell 25k and drop the offer. Fingers on buzzers :-)

[taurusthebear] 05/2/2006 10:24

Surely you know how many shares you've got?

I like the Verisign and RSA connections. Remember from my 'Baltimore Technology' days that they were the biggest names in PKI. I'm looking to add more, and am watching the trading action here (of which there doesn't seem to be any!) to see if there's any chance of getting 1p or 2p off the current price before the next likely trading statement approaches... :0)

[igoe104] 03/2/2006 17:44

i think 80% ,will be know problem.
security cards, are one of the fastest growth sectors around,in the world. just a matter, of waiting for the contracts all to kick in.
every time, i look at the companies web site, and look at all those rns,(over the last year ) i want to add to my 140,000 odd shares.

[gurp] 03/2/2006 16:51

did no-one else notice - there was a trade today.
someone def knows something, 6 rns's come monday?

[pyman] 03/2/2006 16:31

hello. also lurking. waiting for a price drop to add. also fed up waiting.may have to heed Mr Rothschild's 'i dont mind missing the bottom or the top, I just want the 80% in the middle. With IGP I would hope for more than 80% over next 3 years.

[wjccghcc] 02/2/2006 10:38

Welcome aboard also. Next scheduled news should be the year end trading statement - 31st March last year. Outlook as at Dec 15th was:

"The Company expects to see continued strong growth in our market sector and in
our share of this market over the coming months. We anticipate that our new and
existing distribution partners will start to generate recurring revenues as they respond to increasing demand for identity cards for corporate and governmental applications around the World."

Personally, I'm hoping for a 300k increase in revenues from H1 to H2 of which GBP100k should be from the RSA minimum guarantee fee. Cash balances will also benefit from the second $500k from RSA so should be comfortably around GBP1.3mm. The nice thing with operational gearing is that most of that revenue increase should drop to the bottom line unless they've increased their staff costs over H1. I doubt we'll see any announcements re the Federal rebadging programme until after the finals are announced but that should make H1 newsflow interesting.

Of course, the main caveat with IGP is that the timing of contract implementations is not under their control and can be protracted which may lead to lumpiness of revenues. As the partnerships build up a bigger customer base, that effect should reduce.

[njp] 02/2/2006 09:50

Hardly a tortoise, gurp! More like a grasshopper, taking a breather after every jump.

[gurp] 02/2/2006 09:37

blimey - board suddenly busy(ish)!
we've had the 50% retrace of the leap & sitting at the bottom of the rising channel so also happy to hold the tortoise

[yump] 02/2/2006 09:29

When you look at the rate at which it rises, and the stability at each level, then imo there's a big risk of waiting for a small drop, because its a 'no second chance' stock. 20p and 27p both gave no second chance if you waited for a drop and no way of knowing when the rise was going to come.

Hi TTB,
Nice quiet stock here ;-)
If you see any others going up in steps like this please let me know, I like them!

[taurusthebear] 02/2/2006 09:21

Welcome aboard SM100! They like to delay the trades on this one, eh!? Anyway, I'm out for the day, so I'll leave this with you... :0)

[smartmoney100] 02/2/2006 09:14

I just bought a few too. I got bored waiting. Anyway I guess I need a Smart ID.

[taurusthebear] 02/2/2006 08:59

Hi Peeps, I just grabbed a few of these as a starter, looks good to me. Got them cheaper than the directors, too, which is always nice! ;0)

[wjccghcc] 01/2/2006 08:37

I'd say drop 1p, unless of course there's news in which case it'll rise 1p :-)

Personally, I expect the full year figures to show good progress in the right direction but that we won't see the upside from all the partnerships they've been forging until the 06/07 year. Still, I'm' happy to wait and add on the dips.

[smartmoney100] 31/1/2006 22:19

Hi Gurp, I'm here quietly lurking, waiting for something to happen. In fact ANYthing to happen! Intend to make a small initial purchase soon, not got much in the way of available funds right now and I always start small and average up. That way all my big positions are well in profit usualy. Trouble is here I can't make up my mind whether it's gonna drop 1p or rise 1p next. Lol..either way I'll buy. Seems rather stuck at the mo.

Rgds Smart

[gurp] 31/1/2006 21:56

igp calling anyone!!

[rambutan2] 26/1/2006 12:02

now see why dropped to that tempting 30-31p this morning - 25k and 5k sales at just over 30p, bad timing by them! but shows that mms still aren't keen on having to hold onto any.

[wjccghcc] 26/1/2006 11:17

Yup. My buy finger gets itchy at 30p and I've got a lot. If they increase sales by 300k per half, then you'll get 2.7mm revenues this year rising to 3.9mm next year. Assuming costs of 2.4mm this year rising to 2.5mm next year, that gives EPS of 1p rising to 4p for Mar 07, putting them on a PE of 8. And the ID thing is only just getting started IMHO.