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[garth] 27/3/2006 06:09

Fair enough guys. Thanks for taking the time to comment.

G.

[wjccghcc] 27/3/2006 01:27

Likewise. SMRT seem to have their fingers in a lot of pies but it's hard to tell if they're making it pay at all (I don't think a 2008 forecast of 3mm profit has any credibility that far ahead) and how they match up to their competition - it's really a question of waiting and seeing some numbers then evealuating the potential.

With IGP, I know I have the world leader in smart card management systems who are tied in with the global leaders of smart card issuance, security and IT security in a market which is likely to expand rapidly over the next few years. I can also run some numbers in that the gross margins and fixed costs are pretty easy to predict so I just need to estimate what sales growth I feel comfortable with to work out a valuation. Can't do that with SMRT at the moment.

Keep up with the info though Garth - it's certainly interesting reading.

[Abuse team] 25/3/2006 15:54

Post removed by ADVFN

[taurusthebear] 25/3/2006 15:51

Can't cover all the bases, and I don't have enough data about SMRT to make an objective judgement at present.

But end of year for IGP next Friday, so should be interesting to see if they have anything to say... :0)

[garth] 21/3/2006 09:35

Don't want to sound like a one track record, but a certain little Scottish Smartcard company already have their user handbook in pdf on a French Government website.......

Igoe, as you say - IGP are established as an international company and so may well represent the better investment of the two....

However, IGP are not developing anti-piracy solutions:

ITI Techmedia anti-counterfeiting machine readable tags:

Est US $820 million market by 2010, ECEBS contributing to consortium



It would be great to have some of you guys involved in trying to ascertain exactly what are the areas of competion betwwen IGP & SMRT and just where they offer complementary investments.....

Kind regards,

G.

[igoe104] 21/3/2006 08:38

ITS good to see the the french minstry of interior, (philippe sauzey.) will be present as well.
there looking at id cards for the near future as well. france would be a nice market too, get into.

[igoe104] 20/3/2006 09:25

looks as september demo went ok, then" wjccghhcc.

[wjccghcc] 20/3/2006 08:28

Well he's the only person invited to speak twice which is quite impressive, once on the US federal rebadging and the other on the National ID card.

[rambutan2] 20/3/2006 02:02

parris in london this week...

[wjccghcc] 16/3/2006 14:48

Agree with rambutan. For those sales where MyID is already incorporated into the other companies products (Gemplus, RSA, Verisign, Athena), IGP should incur no costs so their gross margin on those sales will be 100%. Where they do implementation themselves as part of a larger project (e.g. British Library) then the gross margin will be lower. In H1, own technology sales was 92% and gross margin 87%. As their partners step up sales, I don't see either figure dropping.

Apply a gross margin of 90% to a fixed cost base and you can see why the majority of incremental sales will fall straight to the bottom line. e.g. to get a mkt cap of 200p on a PE of 20 implies net income of 3.2mm, pretax profit of 4.5mm but sales of only 7.9mm assuming fixed costs at 2.6mm (will probably rise a bit) and a 90% gross margin. Assuming they make sales of 2.7mm this year, the question to ask is whether there's scope for them to triple sales over the next few years. My guess is that's not beyond the realms of possibility given the increasing demand for smart/ID cards and their partner base.

And that is without the UK national ID card where their partnership with Oberthur and experience with the Met Police and HMG must give them a good chance (provided the scheme goes ahead).

[rambutan2] 16/3/2006 13:02

i dont see why they shouldn't be able to maintain them. that's the beauty of their model.

[garth] 16/3/2006 12:39

Thanks WJ. The margins are certainly impressive. I wonder how long they will be able to maintain them?

[wjccghcc] 16/3/2006 11:53

For 2006/7, I'd hope for sales in the 3.5mm range giving pretax profit of 900k and EPS of 3-4p. Total finger in the air at the moment until we see how the contract flow is in the finals but the operational gearing on a fixed cost base means that any incremental sales fall straight through to the bottom line.

[garth] 16/3/2006 10:53

WJ,

Thanks for taking the time to post that. What are your hopes for H2 2006/7?

G.

[wjccghcc] 16/3/2006 10:12

The only forecast out there is Peel Hunt which has a pretax loss of 20k and EPS of -0.07p. That's been around for a while though. Personally I'm hoping for H2 sales of 1.5mm giving full year sales of 1.7mm and a pretax profit of 200k for the year with EPS of around 1p after the tax credit.

Remember they don't book revenue until the license fees are received which can be 6-12 months after the order is won. Also, a lot of the bigger deals involve pilot schemes (like the US aerospace contractor) which can mean volume rollout is 12-18 months after the order is won. We will get an extra 200k from RSA but Verisign won't kick in until H1 2006. Also, I don't think any of the Federal rebadging contracts will have been awarded yet.

Basically, EPS of 1p would be nice but I'm not fussed if they don't do that at this early stage. For me, the big boost in numbers is going to come in H2 2006/7 IMHO.

[garth] 16/3/2006 09:34

Having turned around a £500K loss at the interim stage is the general consensus here an expectation of a similar performance to have been achieved in the second half? ie. About £500K profit for the year and a pe of about 24x?

[smartmoney100] 16/3/2006 09:19

I've bought a couple more tranches this morning. That's me fully loaded until we get some newsflow, which I'm confident wil be positive.

[hybrasil] 16/3/2006 04:58

Yes Taurus I think I will buy a few more!

[taurusthebear] 16/3/2006 03:57

Nice and quiet here now, just the way I like it, as we gradually approach year-end and the market continues to look the other way! :0)

[gurp] 13/3/2006 23:13

Dunno - just for a post!

[rambutan2] 09/3/2006 14:59

are igp represented at cebit in hanover, directly or alongside someone bigger? cant remember whether they were there last year or not.

[gurp] 08/3/2006 23:20

still in the rising channel but many pi's panicking in the small cap market generally
(just think we should be able to manage 1 post per day!)

[garth] 07/3/2006 19:41

Pleasure (actually penned a detail reply just now but managed to delete it....)!

[wjccghcc] 07/3/2006 18:58

thanks garth.

[pyman] 07/3/2006 17:08

agreed. Lords delaying the inevitable. I dont think the industry is dependant on national ID cards anyway, so any markdown is an opportunity in my mind.