Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[daz] 11/10/2007 09:40

Igoe, where do you get the 48m figure from? It's not mentioned on the website or the latest annual report.

[igoe104] 11/10/2007 09:10

ALSO worth a read.

Officials said details about the driving license of a particular person from any part of the country could be learnt immediately through computerized data system

[igoe104] 11/10/2007 09:03

shares in issue is 36,093,741 and fully diluted shares is 48,735,009.

[daz] 10/10/2007 17:26

Could someone confirm the number of shares, options, convertibles and warrants in issue.

From the 2006 annual report + placing, I can find
Shares: 36,093,741 (33,963,438 + 2,130,303 from placing)
Convertibles: 1,432,000
Warrants: 2,982,919
Options: 925,150 (EMI + approved)
Credo warrants: 1,017,100

Giving a total of 42.45m but this disagrees with WJ's post 1851 above, which quotes 48m, so I think I've missed something.

TIA

[jailbird] 10/10/2007 07:33

soz ttb,

on the niteshift..brain all over the place ...off to bed.

[taurusthebear] 10/10/2007 06:36

jailbird - Do you repeat everything twice? Do you repeat everything twice?

I said triples after a year. Obviously if it tripled tomorrow without due cause I would sell as well. I was just making the point that the Stock Market is never about what you want to happen, but what seems to be a good calculated risk over a certain period.

Obvious maybe, but sometimes these things need to be thought through and stated, in order to avoid disappointment or finger-pointing when things don't go the way you want. :0)

[jailbird] 10/10/2007 02:56

TTB,

"it's not what I want to happen in the Stock Market that counts, but what does happen. I don't care if the share price triples overnight in a year's time or takes a year to slowly do the same thing, because the end result is the same, and I'm not looking to sell tomorrow. :0)"


TTB,

if the share prices overnight,i will sure be selling. The quicker the share price rises, the happy i will be be. We are to make money after all,and i think and tax savings we could be exempt probably applies to a few of us now.
At least rhen i could my profits to use on luxuries or re-invest in other opportunities that are still around.

[jailbird] 10/10/2007 02:55

TTB,

"it's not what I want to happen in the Stock Market that counts, but what does happen. I don't care if the share price triples overnight in a year's time or takes a year to slowly do the same thing, because the end result is the same, and I'm not looking to sell tomorrow. :0)"


TTB,

if the share prices overnight,i will sure be selling. The quicker the share price rises, the happy i will be be. We are to make money after all,and i think and tax savings we could be exempt probably applies to a few of us now.
At least rhen i could my profits to use on luxuries or re-invest in other opportunities that are still around.

[jailbird] 10/10/2007 02:40

i have no doubt personally that one of major US partners will
offer to buy intercede eventually..i feel it could happen next year or the following
year.


i will expect more directors' buys if this is on the cards.

[jailbird] 10/10/2007 02:33

i'm also looking for contracts with Oracle soon.
I see Oracle 10ga and now 11g is lso being used and supported.
These supported versions are being setup for large projects like National ID databases.

this is an earlier release but found info more understandable

Lutterworth, United Kingdom (PRWeb) February 5, 2007 -- Intercede, a market leader in smart card and identity credential management systems, is pleased to announce that MyID® is now even more scalable with support for the Oracle 10g database. Oracle 10g support provides MyID customers and partners with even more flexibility and implementation options for high volume deployments.

"We are extremely pleased to announce support for Oracle 10g. This additional database support further increases MyID's flexibility and scalability." said Richard Parris, Chairman & Chief Executive of Intercede. "MyID is now fully capable of being deployed in high and very high volume environments such as business-to-consumer and national ID card projects."

MyID is the ultimate smart card and identity credential management solution that unites numerous identity technologies and systems, creating a complete identity infrastructure. MyID is used by many Enterprise and Government customers around the world to efficiently enroll, quickly issue and effortlessly manage smart device-based identities. Identities issued and managed by MyID are used for a variety of security applications including: Employee ID cards, US Federal Government employee PIV cards, Two-factor authentication, combined logical and physical access control, secure email and signing applications, and more...

With Oracle support Intercede's customers and partners can look forward to several new and exciting features including:

- Support for Oracle 10g R2. (Windows and Solaris)
- On install MyID enables you to select the database you want to use, either Microsoft Windows SQL or the Oracle database.
- Option of Automatic Oracle database creation or manual Oracle database creation.
- Support for multiple database instances within a single Oracle server.
- MyID user experience stays the same whether you are using Microsoft Windows SQL or Oracle database.

*MyID with Oracle support will be available in Q3 2007.

[rambutan2] 10/10/2007 00:33

sods law we'll suddenly fly up to a fiver on 7 april!

[wjccghcc] 10/10/2007 00:18

As a quid pro quo, maybe they'll let us put our AIM stocks into ISAs/PEPs.

[igoe104] 09/10/2007 21:01

LOOks like we are going to have to pay 18%, even if we have held the stock for years.
i was hoping it would only be investments from next year would kick in, but it seems im wrong.



For disposals on or after 6 April 2008 and held over gains coming into charge on or after 6 April 2008 taper relief will no longer be available (even if assets were held before this date) and the chargeable gain will be liable to tax at the new rate of 18 per cent (subject to the deduction of allowable losses, any other reliefs and the AEA).

[taurusthebear] 07/10/2007 23:52

APHRO - it's not what I want to happen in the Stock Market that counts, but what does happen. I don't care if the share price triples overnight in a year's time or takes a year to slowly do the same thing, because the end result is the same, and I'm not looking to sell tomorrow. :0)

[0scillator] 07/10/2007 11:34

I see they're trying to generate some interest (again!) over on Motley Fool's Paulypilot's Pub:

[rambutan2] 07/10/2007 00:44

and one more thing.

it's just typical that the mkt failed to recognise the importance (in my eyes) of this week's rns which, as i posted earlier, derisked igp. the downside scenerio ie having to raise funds from a position of weakness (and dilute shareholders, or worse), has surely disappeared for ever, which makes igp a far more appetising investment. ok, one might still have to be a bit patient, but Myid is hardwired into enough contracts to ensure some reward, while the potential upside is very large.

[rambutan2] 07/10/2007 00:26

aphro,

i'm certainly no friend of brokers! but my understanding (to be corrected) is that kbc are more a figurehead style nomad broker rather than a working corporate broker for igp. i don't think they get paid much? and aren't sure that they had anything to do with the placing?

ultimately it's down to the management when, or whether they want to promote the company. however, i suspect that the small, prob overstretched and v cost conscious management team at igp have so far decided that their time and talents are better spent concentrating their efforts on growing the business and that ultimately the share price will reflect their success in doing this.

whether one likes it or not, that's the deal you get with igp.

i tend to think that in an ideal world one of the management team would be a natural promoter and enjoy the public listing aspect of igp. however, as that's not the case then it's prob best they stick to their knitting.

and that said, they are still much better than many small aim cos i've dealt with both in providing a decent website on the one hand, and on the other, in not paying a fortune to advisers who just take the money and dilute the shareholders to zilch. and on that front, it's certainly worth noting the lack of share options management and board hold.

[topvest] 06/10/2007 13:54

Same here - sooner or later they will get recognised - this may even become a go-go stock. 2008 at the earliest though!

[wjccghcc] 06/10/2007 11:00

To be fair, they have delivered 20%+ organic revenue growth for the past 3 years. The market doesn't value that yet because they haven't made a profit. However, the bulk of their revenues come from projects they won 1-2 years ago when operating costs were 2mm, so if you compared like with like they'd have made a profit of 600k last year.

Of course, the market is too short-term for that approach - management have expanded the cost base by 50% because they see a huge opportunity to be a global leader in this sector which is set for exponential growth and that's why I've invested. It's always possible management can mess it up but so far their partner network and the fact that MyID appears to be at the centre of the product suites for some of the largest global security players indicates they're doing ok so far.

Also, as the demands on ID cards/tokens etc. increase (ID, benefits, logical/physical access, digital signatures, banking transactions etc..), the lower end key management products will fall by the wayside - people will want everything linked to one or two cards/tokens and that's where you'll need something as versatile as MyID.

What will trigger a rerating? I don't know. It could be a big project like the UK ID card or the Olympics or it could be the market waking up to the huge operational gearing here as the US revenues ramp up (possibly H2 but more probably 2008). I'm happy to wait.

[topvest] 06/10/2007 09:11

I agree that the share price is rather pathetic given the prospects, albeit now is the time IGP need to start delivering on revenue growth. This company could get taken out on the cheap if we don't get a sensible share price in the next year (i.e. 70-100p). Maybe IGP need a change of advisor and to take a different approach at selling their story, which is a good one.

[aphrodites] 06/10/2007 07:23

TaurusTheBear

Not sure I totally concur with you.

When you have a company which is to quote:

"the leading developer of software to issue and manage smart cards and digital identities and is highly focused on the family of technologies powering its core MyID™ software platform. It has also reduced operating losses from £2.2m to £0.3m and the cash outflow before financing from £1.2m to a net cash inflow of £0.4m."

you have a company which clearly has very attractive growth potential in a world environment where security is to the forefront of everyone's mind.

As the CE claims and from the posts we have seen on here there are an increasing number of leaders in the IT security market which have concluded licensing IGP's MyID technology, on an OEM basis, is the best way of meeting their customer's requirements.

IGP is a growth company with very attractive potential not only in its own right but also to potential predators.

I do not wish to harp on about the placement earlier in the year but either Peel Hunt thought a price in the 70p area was too high and deliberately participated in manipulating the price back so that it could get an institution/s on board to help with the very necessary finance that was needed at that time or they thought the shares were good value at the 63p level which I understand they were recommending the share to clients to buy!

While everyone loves to have shares that treble overnight that is not really the name of the game in the investment world. I want shares in my portfolio which reflect the steady growth potential that businesses offer and IGP is one of these. But something is seriously wrong when the company broker is recommending shares to clients to buy at 63p; we have a placement at 33p, a recovery in the price to 50p, a string of positive announcements afterwards supporting the progress the company is making and we see the shares trading back again in the 34p region again.

If my memory is correct it is either you or another BB member here (many apologies if it was not you) that accuse me of griping because I bought at the wrong price. I have bought shares at a variety of prices from 22p to 63p at an average of 45p. So I am not too far out of the money. But I am bitterly disappointed that Peel Hunt has been unable to attract more institutions to invest in a company which has a very compelling growth story driven by the global need for more secure identification systems.

Just as a price of 77p may have been too high, in my opinion 35p is far too low in a market which is trading nearly at all time highs and the growth potential IGP offers in the future.

As I have said before Peel Hunt needs to start earning the fees it charges to be IGP's broker.

I would put money on many on here prefering to see a steady appreciation in the share price to reflect the progress the company is making as oppossed to an explossive trebbling of the price in 12 months time.

But I might be very wrong.

[taurusthebear] 05/10/2007 22:23

We all saw the share price rise after the newspaper tip and the HSPD contract wins last year. That shows that when it gets on more radars, the shares could easily hit a quid. That may be a year away yet, but that is still triple the current price. I'm holding this one, but not expecting anything soon. When it comes, it will be fast and furious, IMO! :0)

[boadicea] 05/10/2007 20:46

Is the 'better second half' a reliable seasonal effect or just a historical accident?

[237gmoney] 05/10/2007 20:30

I think 25% yr on yr growth was in the past for this company as with a 20% increase in revenue in just the first half and TWIC kicking off H2 will make the full year figures look very good indeed. TWIC is underestimated as some ports have many more workers than were first thought yet this has not been reported by the DHS so there could be upto double the 750,000 cards needed. With MyID the card of choice this project could potentially double IGPs output with one contract. H2 is the beeter half for IGP as well so we could see some interesting figures for the full year when they come out.

[wjccghcc] 05/10/2007 17:13

With cash of 1.6mm and generating cash in H1, I think we've moved past any possible need for a placing.

As said in the annual report, they're expecting a step change in demand for ID management over the next 2 years so I would say 25% is too conservative after the current year. I'd hope for revenues of 3.2mm for this year rising to 4.5mm next year (depending on how they book revenue for TWIC). At that point, as boadicea says, they should be earning service revenue of the order of 1.6mm with 4mm cards in issue. Costs shouldn't rise much further after H2 this year unless they are involved in the UK ID card, in which case they would need to increase staff numbers again up front, but you could add 2-3mm p.a. to revenues once issuance began.

4.5mm revenues with 97% margins and costs plateauing at, say, 3.3mm gives profit of 1.2mm and EPS of 3.5p for y/e Mar 09 so I'd estimate a forward PE of about 10 at the current share price