Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[jailbird] 27/9/2007 15:56

approx 2M shares were issued to raise the funds and if they were new investors, then their holdings are under 3%..

edit wrong..my maths is bad!

just over 5%..maybe AP is right 6%!!


The placing shares will represent approximately 5.9 per cent. of the enlarged
issued ordinary share capital of the Company immediately following Admission.

[spooky] 27/9/2007 15:52

Hargreave Hale were definitely the main investor in the placing,the shares were spread across several different funds.

[igoe104] 27/9/2007 15:49

NOT SURE APHRODITES, THEY ARE NOT ON THE BIGGEST HOLDERS LIST.

RA Parris 6,412,232 18.9
Pershing Keen Nominees Ltd. 3,498,220 10.3
Plastic Technologies Ltd. 3,147,436 9.3
Cogefin (Bermuda) Ltd. 1,582,541 4.7
Barclayshare Nominees Ltd. 1,351,464 4.0
React Investment Ltd. 1,344,683 4.0
AM Walker 1,248,077 3.7
Vidacos Nominees Ltd. 1,205,904 3.6

[aphrodites] 27/9/2007 15:44

IGOE

Didn't Hargreave Hale, the technology investor that is an offshoot of Hargreaves Lansdown, the broker, take a 6% stake this summer for £700,000.

I am told they were the main investor in the placing.

[jailbird] 27/9/2007 15:41

oh no this funding talk again.

I will be honest, only just couple of hours ago, i was thinking this fall
looks very similiar to the previous one with small sells.

But nah, this cannot be the case again...and i think it is not, and
the interims will clear that up as we will know the cashflow.

But maybe a strong and blunt email to clarify the cash position needs
to be sent to the FD to allay these concerns.

But cash concerns do really seem premature...it looks like the MMs dropping to make a market as we have a small seller drip stock to the market..and the MMs looking for buyers to balance the books.

put this it this 33p and the 30p are very strong supports, it those fails, then we are in trouble!

[igoe104] 27/9/2007 15:32

IT still amazing, noboby still doesnt know which fund took the placing ?

yes the FD did balls it up, he should have been more organsed, and done the placing at the beginning of the year, it would have has a positive impact rather than a negative one.

they should have sold the shares at 33p, to loyal shareholders, not a fund looking to make a quick buck.

[aphrodites] 27/9/2007 15:04

IGOE & 237G



On 31-7-07 I posted

New company appointments in the U.S. and further expansion plans will in my opinion inevitably place a strain on IGP's cash resources. I would not be at all surprised to see it have to return to the market to raise more cash later this year.

I have made my feelings well known on here about the poor way in which the last placing was handled. I know for a fact that when the price was on the rise and the shares were in their 60's one broker had sizeable institutional demand. I was bid by my broker then for reasonable size.

WJC is quite correct; the mark down is a result of small volumes. But more importantly why is there no support? I can tell you there are several very unhappy people out there, including myself, who were buyers in the 55p - 65p range who were just as unhappy as me in the way the placement was handled and the price marked down in the market on the run up to the announcement of the placement price at 33p!

Would you step in now to stem the slide if you were a disgruntled institutional holder? I certainly wouldn't.

More importantly, will those institutions which had their palms crossed when they were offered shares at 33p support the price when it gets to 33p? This will be the real testing time when IGP learns whether its new investor base is truly loyal to the cash they committed.

I am waiting to see if the market can get the price back to 33p and whether this will be the turning point.

On the other hand if, as I believe, IGP starts to run out of cash around November/December it could find itself in a very difficult situation. Will their broker be able to find more new friendly institutional investors and at what price? At a market price of 30/33p or even lower we could be looking at a placement around 24p!

And if the broker cannot find new investors will IGP have to make a general rights issue?

And would all of us here be prepared to bail it out when we have seen how badly the F.D. handled its previous cash shortfall and gave preference to new investors over existing ones? I would certainly raise a big question mark over the management of the company.

Certainly, the F.D.'s head would have to be for the chopping block.

All this of course depends on whether IGP can pull the rabbit out of the bag and make announcements of its involvement in some major new contracts.

If it cannot then I am sorry but this share price will have a lot further to fall and WJC might well be able to fill his boots with a substantial new tranch of shares at 20p or even lower!

I was surprised at the time of the placement that IGP raised such a small sum of money. I gave it the benefit of the doubt that it knew what it was doing, substantial new business was in the pipe-line and we should prepare ourselves for new major announcements which would support the price and take it to higher new levels where we would all be scrambling to buy any new shares that it might want to issue.

At this time it looks like I have got it badly wrong. Please note; I say at this time!

Beware, the share price performance is telling us that the market expects the company will need to raise new cash. And the market is invariably wrong.

But more importantly, the market does not like to be taken for a ride. If I am right and the F.D. has made a b-----ks of handling his company's cash flow then we will have a major problem here.

I do not like the smell of it one little bit.


IGOE & 237G

That was what I wrote on 31 July.

Have things changed since or is the present institutional holder playing silly games as I intimated several days ago?

Has the F.D. made a balls-up and will they need to return to raise new cash?

Could someone know further cash raising is in the pipe-line?

I said in July this share price performance is telling us something. I have not liked the smell for weeks but I am afraid we will have to wait for the results to see exactly what is going on.

It's all very well for WJCCGHCC to tell us to wait 18 months for the upside but if IGP was delivering everything it promises this would be reflected in a much firmer share price somewhere in the 55p area.

In the mean time I hope it does drift below 33p because the fund which bought these shares in the placing and then sold some recently will certainly not be able to get out.

[237gmoney] 27/9/2007 11:12

Not only that igoe, it is below the price they won the HSPD12 contracts....

If the placing seller is drip feeding the market then it wont go below 33p as why they sell at a loss???? I expect it will bounce up soon from here but again needs news to do so.....and even then the seller will still be there as £700k worth of stock will take a long time to feed into the market.

Thats why we need a big buyer to come in an take the whole lot off them....then we will start heading up again.

[igoe104] 27/9/2007 10:40

REGUARDING the uk national id card. contractors involved with the id card, will have contracts signed until 2016. so it wont matter even if labour dont win.

ps The share price has dropped below the price it was before they won the thales contract.

[237gmoney] 27/9/2007 10:36

Marked down again????

what's the point? There has to come a point when the company have to come out and say something though, as its there money going down the pan as well at the moment. remember the company has to pay back £2m in loans in 2009 so it really has to ramp up sales to meet the payments for those. with sales reaching £3-3.5m for 2007/8 the company has to make a big jump in 2008/9 to meet the payments so the next results statement has to be very very good.

Its a way off yet but we need labour to win the next election to keep the UKID card rolling within the next two years and TWIC, which is probably the biggest project yet for IGP, should be almost complete so IGP would have made a packet from that but at this market cap, with the industry its in and the growth that other players are having (26%+ ry on yr in most cases) the company is a prime target to be swallowed up IMO.

Maybe thats there game, dropping the share price to attract a bidder??? Maybe its a hidden agenda? Maybe Parris wants to offload the company and doesnt mind the share price falling? Well when the Bids come, it will have to be £40m+ for me to even considering offloading but even then I wouldnt be happy.

[igoe104] 27/9/2007 10:18

I wished id have some spare funds id top up, as well.
been buying alot of sft recently and ccgp, both worth putting in your watchlist.

PS looks like these are marked down again, on a buy.

LATEST ON REAL ID PROJECT.

[wjccghcc] 27/9/2007 10:08

Good post 237gm. Personally, I don't think we'll see any revenue from TWIC in H1 but we will have the costs of all the work they've been doing to comply with the newer TSA tech specs. Likewise HSPD-12 where I suspect they had to adapt MyID to fit each of the big department's specific needs (EPA, Social Security, White House etc.) and where rollout has only begun recently. Also, the next batch of NHS license purchases is likely in H2, not H1. They did do several infrastructure implementations over the last 2 years (US top 5 bank, John Lewis, Lockheed, Israeli banks, MidEast clients, 2 other US defence programmes) but we don't know if issuance has ramped up on these yet.

Bottom line, I would hope H1 revenues to be in the 1.3-1.5mm area but the increased costs will keep IGP in the red. However, I expect the forward looking statement to be very positive with reference to the rollouts now occurring. Thereafter H2 and 2008/9 should see a significant increase in revenues IMHO with a profit in H2. Whether or not we'll reach breakeven for this year I don't know (or particularly mind) since next year is the key with HSPD-12 and TWIC completing their rollouts, UK olympics, UK ID card, and the rollout of the new Thales and RSA ID management suites.

Anyone who holds/buys shares here should be prepared to hold for the next 18 months if they want to see the upside they deserve IMHO.

[jailbird] 27/9/2007 09:55

it has always been about WHEN here not IF.

Delays are inevtiable with BIG projects, with deadlines being push back coz of
technical issues, but our day is very near now.

Cash would never be an issue if projects gwt delivered on time.

They have managed their cash resources superbly over the years.
Their costs are mainly to deliver projects now...

[237gmoney] 27/9/2007 09:30

WJ. A good post on the cashflow situation. I agree the company do not need another placing/fund raising in the near future as you say there was more than enough cash to bring this company through the next 12-18 months on current cash spend but I think the cash spend will have now altered with the extra contracts IGP have won over the last 6 months.

As you say cashflow in H1 last year was a negative -£707k which left them with only £405k cash in the bank at end of H1 and with £653k cash in bank at the end of full year makes the positive +£248k H2 but H1 2007 with the extra contracts cash spend would increase therefore the placing was badly needed but for the Thales £500k the company may have been close to another cash funding, hence why the fact IGP made a point of saying in their statement it would be in before end H1 this year and why that news was very important. I think the market were worried about cash spend as were we with no contract news in sight.

Im hoping most of the revenue has come through for HSPD12 as with the Thales deal, NHS trust and other bits, IGP sales for H1 2007 should hopefully come in >£1.5m. If the company can show a profit from this we may see an upturn in share price but with the delays in TWIC, HSPD12, FRAC, the revenue for H1 2007 may be disappointing hence the fall in SP, but still H2 should then make up for it. Time will tell.

[bigpunt10] 27/9/2007 09:19

Am topping up with these all next month,same applies to SVR. Will be topping up considerably today in IDD as results probably tommorrow. This sector will be coming alive very soon, and IDD results will be a good indicator.
All my own personal view,plus some small hints.

[boadicea] 27/9/2007 08:46

Without any apparent bad news, I have taken the opportunity to add this a.m. (36.167p) - not showing yet. We may get another tick down if the drip continues but it should not make much difference in a few months time and it's just as likely to tick up if I wait.

[glasshalfull] 26/9/2007 18:36

igoe104 -

The 2500 trade you mention was actually my buy earlier today.
I've been building a stake with a number of small buys (mainly 5k's and today's 2.5) thanks to whoever is offloading.

Been watching this one for a number of years and I believe they are fast approaching the tipping point, very similar IMHO to SVR.
Both have shown lots of potential and now look like they will deliver in 2008.

Taking the opportunity to buy into both stories before the market realises the same thing.

Many thanks to all contributors to this thread. Most informative and helpful with research.


Kind regards,
GHF

[wjccghcc] 26/9/2007 18:19

I think the rule of thumb is >10% of revenues which in their case would be 260k. The thing is that unless it's an upfront fee like Thales, their main revenues come when cards are issued and in most cases, it's impossible to tell how many licenses will be issued so they won't know what the contract is worth.

I'm not sure why people think another placing might be on the cards. They've run a very tight ship for 5 years (the last placing was in 2003) and had 1.4mm cash after the placing this year. Cash outflow last year was 459k and I don't see why that should increase much. Their cost base is pretty much fixed (apart from travel to the US) and their margins are 97%.

They do have seasonality with H1 usually being a lot more cashflow negative (-707k last year) vs H2 cashflow positive (+248k last year), probably because maintenance/tax refund payments are made Dec or March. I suspect that's why they did the placing to give them working capital room for H1. Also they'll have been doing a lot of unpaid work on TWIC and HSPD-12 in the US as the tech specs have been adjusted, but once roll out begins next month, that should decrease.

Bottom line, I expect a fairly large H1 cash outflow but for it to reverse in H2 as it did last year.

[boadicea] 26/9/2007 17:20

WJC - I understand that they can't publish details of a contract but if alone it produces a significant effect on turnover or profit I believe the market rules require them to disclose its existence.
Wrt the sp, there may be some fear that after only a small issue earlier in the year, they may need another bite and we know what that would do. We must cross our fingers that some up-front payments will rescue them from that, in which case there could be rapid share price appreciation once the daily drip-feed stops.

[wjccghcc] 26/9/2007 17:19

Actually, looking at the trades, it seems Aphrodites might be right. Every day this week there's been a 5k sell after 4pm. Strange thing is it's always a T trade. Very odd.

[johndee] 26/9/2007 16:33

keep for long term.........not a trading share.

[wjccghcc] 26/9/2007 16:21

The MMs don't have a view - they're simply trying to balance their books. Someone keeps trickling out small sells and they lower the price accordingly - either it's PIs who've been burnt by the recent market volatility and are liquidating their smaller stocks or it's a buyer trying to move the price lower as Aphrodites thinks.

IGP don't/can't publicise contracts unless the client does it and most don't want to shout about their security needs. We had a rush of newsflow last year only because the US government must publish contract info.

Barring contract announcements, the next newsflow is the interims in about 10 weeks time.

[237gmoney] 26/9/2007 16:11

now they've dropped it again??? down 5% whats going on? the graph looks worse yet the company seem to let it carry on. seems that £0.5m was badly needed yet the company dont seem to making much noise about anyother deals hence why the mm's keep dropping the price. will be back the placing price again soon.

and to think we hit 70p last year with all the contracts.....seems their worth nothing now....well at least thats what the MM's think.